Latin American Mining Sector: Review of Current Trends and Prospects. Jean Acquatella PhD Energy and Natural Resources Unit 2013 United Nations ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Santiago, Chile UNECE – IAEA UNFC Workshop, 9-12 July 2013, Santiago, Chile 2013 CONTENTS 1. Production, Reserves, Exploration investments. 2. Increase of Mining Rents during the 2003-2012 price cycle, and State participation ( %, govt. take ). 3. How did governments share in mining wealth? 4. Analysis and comments. – – – Different responses of mining and oil sector to price boom. Fiscal treatment of mining. Discussion of prospects. In Latin America the productive structure remains concentrated in primary sectors LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXPORT STRUCTURE BY TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY, 1981-2010 a (Percentages of the total) Source: ECLAC, on the basis of United Nations Commodity Trade Database (COMTRADE). a Cuba and Haiti not included. Data for Antigua and Barbuda refer only to 2007, and data for the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela only to 2008; data for Honduras do not include 2008; data for Belize, Dominican Republic, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Suriname and Grenada (exports only) do not include 2009. FDI trends reinforces productive specialization in primary sectors ( except. Mexico and Brazil) LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FDI BY DESTINY SECTORS AND REGION 2007-2012 a/ (Percentages) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures. a/ Estimate Resource Export Dependence (2007 peak year for mineral/oil prices before global financial crisis) Fiscal Dependence on Resource Revenues Latin America’s Metal Exports as % of total Exports increase during 2002-2011 LAC Mineral Exports / Total LAC Exports (%) LAC countries share (%) in world production of metals: 2000 - 2012 Metal Bauxite Aluminum primar. Copper mine Copper refined Gold [Ton] Silver [Ton] Tin mine Tin refined Iron [Mton] Molibdenum mine Nickel mine Nickel refined Lead mine Lead refined Zinc mine Zinc refined 2000 26 2005 27.5 2010 21.5 2012 19.6 8.9 43 25.1 14.4 38.5 26 14.9 7.5 46.5 23.7 18.1 41.8 21.2 18 5.5 45.2 21.5 19.2 48.7 19.5 16.6 4.4 Brasil, Argentina, RBVenezuela 44.6 Chile, Perú y México 19.0 Chile, México y Perú 21.4 Peru, México y Colombia 47.7 México, Perú y Chile 20.5 Perú, E.P Bolivia y Brasil 13.7 Perú, EP Bolivia y Brasil 26.1 35.2 14.1 10.7 14.7 8.4 19 7.3 26 37.3 15.1 13.4 14.6 7.2 21 7.9 22.6 31.8 12.9 11.6 14.5 7.4 21.7 7 21.1 Brasil, México, RB Venezuela 23.8 Chile, Perú y México 11.7 Brasil, Cuba y Colombia 8.6 Brasil, Colombia y Cuba 11.6 Perú, México,EP Bolivia 5.0 México, Brasil y Argentina 19.4 Perú, México, EP Bolivia 7.4 México, Perú y Brasil Top 3 producers Brasil, Jamaica y Suriname Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Gold Fields Mineral Services, Intierra Raw Material Database , UNCTAD . LAC countries share (%) in world production of metals: 2000 - 2012 Metal Bauxite Aluminum primar. Copper mine Copper refined Gold [Ton] Silver [Ton] Tin mine Tin refined Iron [Mton] Molibdnum mine Nickel mine Nickel refined Lead mine Lead refined Zinc mine Zinc refined 2000 26 2005 27.5 2010 21.5 2012 19.6 8.9 43 25.1 14.4 38.5 26 14.9 7.5 46.5 23.7 18.1 41.8 21.2 18 5.5 45.2 21.5 19.2 48.7 19.5 16.6 4.4 44.6 19.0 21.4 47.7 20.5 13.7 Brasil, Argentina, RBVenezuela 26.1 35.2 14.1 10.7 14.7 8.4 19 7.3 26 37.3 15.1 13.4 14.6 7.2 21 7.9 22.6 31.8 12.9 11.6 14.5 7.4 21.7 7 21.1 23.8 11.7 8.6 11.6 5.0 19.4 7.4 Brasil, México, RB Venezuela Top 3 producers Brasil, Jamaica y Suriname Chile, Perú y México Chile, México y Perú Peru, México y Colombia México, Perú y Chile Perú, E.P Bolivia y Brasil Perú, EP Bolivia y Brasil Chile, Perú y México Brasil, Cuba y Colombia Brasil, Colombia y Cuba Perú, México,EP Bolivia México, Brasil y Argentina Perú, México, EP Bolivia México, Perú y Brasil Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Gold Fields Mineral Services, Intierra Raw Material Database , UNCTAD . LAC countries share (%) in world production of metals: 2000 - 2012 Metal Bauxite Aluminum primar. Copper mine Copper refined Gold [Ton] Silver [Ton] Tin mine Tin refined Iron [Mton] Molibdnum mine Nickel mine Nickel refined Lead mine Lead refined Zinc mine Zinc refined 2000 26 2005 27.5 2010 21.5 2012 19.6 8.9 43 25.1 14.4 38.5 26 14.9 7.5 46.5 23.7 18.1 41.8 21.2 18 5.5 45.2 21.5 19.2 48.7 19.5 16.6 4.4 44.6 19.0 21.4 47.7 20.5 13.7 Brasil, Argentina, RBVenezuela 26.1 35.2 14.1 10.7 14.7 8.4 19 7.3 26 37.3 15.1 13.4 14.6 7.2 21 7.9 22.6 31.8 12.9 11.6 14.5 7.4 21.7 7 21.1 23.8 11.7 8.6 11.6 5.0 19.4 7.4 Brasil, México, RB Venezuela Top 3 producers Brasil, Jamaica y Suriname Chile, Perú y México Chile, México y Perú Peru, México y Colombia México, Perú y Chile Perú, E.P Bolivia y Brasil Perú, EP Bolivia y Brasil Chile, Perú y México Brasil, Cuba y Colombia Brasil, Colombia y Cuba Perú, México,EP Bolivia México, Brasil y Argentina Perú, México, EP Bolivia México, Perú y Brasil Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Gold Fields Mineral Services, Intierra Raw Material Database , UNCTAD . LAC metal reserves as % of world reserves: 2000 - 2012 120 CHL ARG BRA BOL 100 BRA 80 60 40 20 BOL BRA JAM GUY SUR CHL VEN PER ARG CHL PER MEX MEX PER CUB BRA PER BRA BOL BRA VEN MEX BRA CUB COL DOM VEN CHL PER BRA MEX MEX 0 2000 2010 2012 Source: USGS Geological Service data, with elaboration from DRNI – ECLAC. PER CHL MEX BOL CHL BRA PER MEX CHL PER PER MEX MEX BOL BRA CHL PER MEX BOL MEX Regional share (%) in total world investment in Mining Exploration 2000 2010 2012 MM US$ 5.7% 11.0% 10.5% $ Latin America 29.5% 32.0% 28.6% $ 210.0 North America 12.6% 15.3% 19.9% $ 146.0 Oceania 18.6% 14.4% 16.5% $ 121.0 Africa 18.6% 14.2% 14.4% $ 106.0 Asia 15.0% 13.0% 10.2% $ Total 100.0% 99.9% Investment by Region Europe Total [MMUS$] $ 86.0 $ 562.0 100.0% $ 735.0 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on official figures, and data from Trends in Worldwide Exploration 77.0 75.0 Annual investment in Mining Exploration increases in Latin America from 0.56 Billion US$ to 3.1 Billion US$ 2003 - 2010 Major countries capturing the new investments in Mining Exploration within Latin America. Country shares as percentage of total Mining Exploration Investment in the region (%) 2013 CONTENTS 1. Production, Reserves, Exploration investments. 2. Increase of Mining Rents during the 2003-2012 price cycle, and State participation ( %, govt. take ). State participation (govt. take) in Mining Sector Rents during the 2003-2012 price cycle 500 PRIMARY COMMODITY PRICE INDEX, 2003-2011 (January 2003=1) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Petróleo, gas natural y carbón Metales Different performance : sector rents and % State appropriation, investment and production dynamics are different across sectors and countries. Mining Sector : Economic Rent Refined cooper prices London Metals Exchange and average production costs LAC * ( USD cents per lb.) 400 International Price 350 Net profits (appropriated by mining industry) 300 250 Tax payments (appropriated by States) Factor payments beyond extraction phase 200 (labor, sale costs, debt service.) Extraction Cost At mine head. 150 100 50,000 45,000 50 40,000 35,000 0 30,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 Precio Cu (BML) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 25,000 Costo de producción (promedio América Latina)** 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 * Source : based on data from COCHILCO Average production costs refers to direct and indirect mining costs, interest payments and depreciation , minus proceeds from sale of indirect products, (C3, according to Brook Hunt terminology), ** Costs for period 1992-1996 reflect only Chile.. ** World Bank ( WDI) World Development Indicators Database Mineral Rent ( % GDP) 0 Mining sector Economic Rent for selected countries (Millions US$, year 2009)** Mining Sector Rents increase in Latin America vs. world Mining Sector Rent: 1990-2003 rises 4 x to 2004-2009 100,000 0.54% GDP regional avg. 2.08 % GDP regional avg. LAC Mining Sector Rent by region, 1990-2009 (US$ Millions 2005) 90,000 80,000 East Asia & Pacific 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 East Asia & Pacific 30,000 LAC North America 20,000 10,000 0 1990-1992 Norteamérica 1999-2001 Asia del Este y el Pacífico* 2003-2005 2007-2009 America Latina y el Caribe Source:ECLAC based on, World Development Indicators. Statistic: Mineral Rent ( % GDP) defined as international price – unitary cost of production for a basket of 10 minerals. Mining Sector profitability reaches unprecedented levels in Latin America LAC: Profitability over assets 500 largest companies , 2010 (% profit/assets) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de información estadística de América Economía, diciembre 2011 (http://www.americaeconomia.com/). Extractive Sector combined rents (% GDP ) in individual countries. 35 Latin America (selected countries ): Mining and Hidrocarbon ( Oil/Gas) rents (% GDP) 30 25 20 15 10 5 x 3 renta x 10 0 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 2004- 1990- 20042003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 2003 2009 Bolivia (Est.Plur.de) Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador Hidrocarburos Honduras Minería México Perú Venezuela (Rep.Bol.de) Fuente: Banco Mundial Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de información del Banco Mundial, World Development Indicators. Nota: *El dato del año 2009 de Asia del Este y el Pacífico corresponde al año 2006. País Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile (GMP-10+CODELCO) MINING SECTOR RENTS (% GDP) OIL& GAS RENTS (% GDP) 199020042003 2009 0.05 x8 0.48 0.30 2.28 0.64 x4 2.24 19902003 3.30 6.32 1.03 x3 17.29 20042009 9.85 x428.87 x3 3.06 0.31 0.28 6.47 Chile (sólo minería privada GMP-10) Colombia Ecuador Guatemala1/ Guyana Honduras Jamaica México Nicaragua Perú República Dominicana Suriname Venezuela, RB América Latina Australia Canadá Estados Unidos Sudáfrica 0.17 0.01 n.d. 5.62 0.25 3.43 0.14 0.07 0.79 0.69 7.26 0.32 0.54 1.17 0.2 0.0 0.9 x5 0.91 x3 x2 x9 0.03 n.d. 5.34 0.69 1.67 0.34 0.63 7.16 1.96 5.07 x4 0.83 2.08 4.12 0.69 0.08 2.47 4.97 x.4 7.11 13.00 x2 24.22 0.54 1.08 4.83 x.5 7.71 1.61 1.99 4.08 26.89 3.61 x231.00 7.11 Fuente: Elaborado sobre la base de datos de COMTRADE, UNCTAD, Banco mundial y CEPAL. Oil/Gas rents are larger in absolute MINING OIL& GAS terms, but FISCAL REVENUE REVENUE (% total (% total Fiscal Mining sectorFISCAL rents are growing Fiscal revenue) revenue) much faster. 19902003 20042009 n.d. 2.2 8.1 Relative performance 35.1 Mining vs. Oil/Gas: 1990-2003 2004-2009 11.5 8.2 27.4 9.0 1.4 13.1 Economic weight of Oil & Gas (% GDP) 0.9 2.1larger than 9.4 continues to be Mining Sector.14.2 30.7 29.4 n.d. 0.3 rents are increasing But Mining Sector much faster ( high profitability). 0.05 0.5 Oil & Gas Sector facing investment lags 30.0to rising 35.8 and reduced profitability, due Production costs. 2.9 13.4 4.4 3.8 56.3 44.9 Fiscal Impact of increase in Mining Rents. País Argentina Bolivia Brasil Chile (GMP-10+CODELCO) OIL& GAS RENTS (% GDP) 19902003 0.05 0.30 0.64 20042009 0.48 2.28 2.24 19902003 3.30 6.32 1.03 20042009 9.85 28.87 3.06 19902003 20042009 n.d. 2.2 6.47 17.29 0.31 0.28 8.1 x4 35.1 1.4 x9 13.1 0.9 x2 2.1 Chile (sólo minería privada GMP-10) Colombia Ecuador Guatemala1/ Guyana Honduras Jamaica México Nicaragua Perú República Dominicana Suriname Venezuela, RB América Latina Australia Canadá Estados Unidos Sudáfrica MINING FISCAL REVENUE (% total Fiscal revenue) MINING SECTOR RENTS (% GDP) 0.17 0.01 n.d. 5.62 0.25 3.43 0.14 0.07 0.79 0.91 0.03 n.d. 5.34 0.69 1.67 0.34 0.63 7.16 0.69 7.26 0.32 0.54 1.17 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.96 5.07 x4 0.83 2.08 4.12 0.69 0.08 2.47 4.97 13.00 0.54 7.11 24.22 1.08 0.05 4.83 7.71 1.61 1.99 4.08 26.89 x2 31.00 3.61 7.11 Fuente: Elaborado sobre la base de datos de COMTRADE, UNCTAD, Banco mundial y CEPAL. 0.3 n.d. 2.9 x10 x4 OIL& GAS FISCAL REVENUE (% total Fiscal revenue) 1990-2003 2004-2009 11.5 8.2 x2.5 = 27.4 9.0 9.4 30.7 x1.5 = 14.2 29.4 30.0 = 35.8 4.4 = 3.8 56.3 -0.2 44.9 = 0.5 13.4 2013 • • • Mining Rents increase during the 2003-2011 price cycle. How did governments perform? State share (%) in Mining Rents during 2003-2011: State share in sector rents Countries included the analysis • Metals Mining Sector – Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Perú • Oil and Gas Sector – Brasil, Ecuador, Colombia, México, y Venezuela Countries selected based on availability of information: in particular disaggregated fiscal revenue payments at sector level. Chile Taxes and other fiscal revenue paid by Mining companies* , relative to Mining Sector rent. absolute values (US$ millions each year) 40,000 35,000 M 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 14,000 M 15,000 10,000 5,000 35% 8% > 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ingresos tributarios totales (Gobierno central) Rentas mineras totales Tributación y aportes totales de la minería (sin impuesto específico) Impuesto específico declarado por GMP-10 Fuente: Elaboración propia sobre la base de datos de COCHILCO, CEPAL, Banco Mundial, FMI y Banco Central de Chile. Notas: * Los ingresos tributarios son del Gobierno Central. Los datos fueron tomados de CEPAL y del Banco de Chile. ** La tributación y aportes totales de la minera incluye los dividendos de CODELCO y los excedentes de ENAMI. Chile Taxes and fiscal payments by Mining Companies as percentage of total Mining Sector Rent each year (%) 45% TOTAL 40% 35.7% 35% 30% CODELCO 22.1% 25% 20% GMP-10 15% 13.6% 10% <5% 5% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Aportes de las empresas privadas 1999 2000 2001 CODELCO 2002 ENAMI 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Tributación minera total (incluye royalty) • In 2004-2009 , total fiscal revenue from mining reaches 35.7% of total sector rent. • Fiscal contribution from State company CODELCO is 22% ( 2/3 of total ), even though CODELCO only controls 1/3 of total cooper production. • Fiscal revenue contribution of Private Mining Companies reaches 13.6 % of sector rent. • In 1994-2004 Private Mining fiscal contribution is less than 5 % of sector rent except for 1996-98. Perú Taxes and other fiscal revenue paid by Mining companies* , relative to Mining Sector rent. absolute values (US$ millions each year) 25,000 20,000 15,000 12,000 M 10,000 5,000 3,500 M 14.2% 2.9% > 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Ingresos tributarios 2002 2003 2004 Tributación minera total 2005 2006 2007 Rentas mineras 2008 2009 2010 Regalías Fuente: Elaboración propia sobre la base de datos de Superintendencia Nacional de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT), Banco Mundial y FMI. Notas: * Los ingresos tributarios son los del Gobierno Central. Incluyen: Impuestos a la renta, a la producción y consumo, a la importación y otros ingresos como impuesto a las transacciones financieras, temporal a los activos netos, a las acciones del Estado, etc. ** Los impuestos pagados por las empresas mineras incluyen el 100% del impuesto a la renta minera. Peru Taxes and fiscal payments by Mining Companies as percentage of total Mining Sector Rent each year (%) 40 35% 35 29% 30 25 20 19.5% 15 10 5 0 2004 2005 2006 Tributación + Regalías 2007 Tributación 2008 2009 Regalías • State rent appropriation has been decreasing from 35% in 2004 to 19.5% en 2009. • Fiscal contribution from Mining Companies during peak price year ( 2007) reached 29% of sector rent. • In 2007 the contribution of Mining to total Fiscal Revenue in Perú peaked at 19.4%. Guatemala Taxes and other fiscal revenue paid by Marlin Gold Mine, relative to Mining Sector rent. absolute values (US$ millions each year) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 Rentas mineras totales 2007 2008 Impuestos sobre la Renta 2009 2010 Regalías Gob/Mun Fuente: Elaboración propia sobre la base de datos de http://goldcorpguatemala.com/, Instituto de Desarrollo Global y Medio Ambiente, FMI y World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Guatemala Taxes and fiscal payments by Mining Companies as percentage of total Mining Sector Rent each year (%) 20 18 16 14 12 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 Total de aportes mineros al fisco 2008 Impuestos sobre la Renta 2009 2010 Regalías Gob/Mun Fuente: Elaboración propia sobre la base de datos de http://goldcorpguatemala.com/, Instituto de Desarrollo Global y Medio Ambiente, FMI y World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Honduras Taxes and other fiscal revenue paid by Mining companies* , relative to Mining Sector rent. absolute values (US$ millions each year) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Estimación 10 % 0 2000 2001 2002 Rentas mineras 2003 2004 2005 2006 Impuestos a la renta (estimación propia) 2007 2008 2009 Regalías Fuente: Elaboración propia sobre la base de datos de la Secretaría de Finanzas de Honduras, Banco Central de Honduras, Banco Mundial y CEPAL. Nota: * Estimación propia según el impuesto empresarial del 10%, sobre las cifras de rentas mineras del Banco Mundial. Mining : State appropriation of sector rent 1990-2003 vs. 2004-2010 State participation in sector rents, and fiscal contribution of mining as % of total fiscal revenue País Bolivia (datos CEPAL) Bolivia (datos PIEB) Bolivia (sin COMIBOL, datos PIEB) Chile (cobre, GMP-10+CODELCO) State participation (%) Mining sector rent (anual avg. for period) Before 2004 (*) 2004-2009 Total period (*) 21.8 35.7 (*) 57.7 34.6 32.1 Chile (CODELCO with dividends) 17.1 22.1 Chile (10 largest private mining GMP-10) 3.9 13.6 Colombia Guatemala Honduras 48.9 37.1 12.2 10.0 Perú Australia (minería metálica) Canadá 10 largest Mining multinationals Taxes paid globally (% gross rents.) 10.3 (*) 17.9 27.4 26.1 33.6 Fiscal contribution Mining Sector (%) total fiscal revenues (anual avg. for period) Before 2004 0,9 2004-2009 Total Period 3,0 8.2 37.5 2,6 2.2 1.3 23.0 21.0 6.6 30.4 18.7 11.1 1.5 14.3 8.0 0.05 0.4 0.5 0.4 2.9 14.2 10.1 1.9 10.1 (*) 20.2 38,6 33.2 Fuente: Elaborado sobre la base de datos de COMTRADE, Banco mundial y CEPAL. Calculado como el promedio de los porcentajes de participación anuales (utilizando precios nominales). Los datos PIEB para Bolivia se tomaron del estudio de Rolando Jordán (PIEB, 2010). (*) No se pudo calcular el porcentaje de participación en estos períodos por errores estadísticos. Mining Sector 2004-2011 • Rents multiply x 4 • State appropriation < 33% (benchmark int’l) • Guatemala, Honduras < 13% of total rent appropriated by State • Private concesion regimes, State participation the exception. • Use of traditional fiscal instruments ( corporate income tax and royalties) Need to introduce PROGRESSIVE INSTRUMENTS i.e. Resource Rent Taxes (RRT) etc. • Price cycle generates investment boom, growing production. • POLICY CHALLENGE: How to achieve more progressive fiscal regime? Under current contract rules. Mining Sector 2004-2011 • Rents multiply x 4 • State appropriation < 33% (benchmark int’l) • Guatemala, Honduras < 13% of total rent appropriated by State • Private concesion regimes, State participation the exception. • Use of traditional fiscal instruments ( corporate income tax and royalties) Need to introduce PROGRESSIVE INSTRUMENTS i.e. Resource Rent Taxes (RRT) etc. • Price cycle generates investment boom, growing production. • POLICY CHALLENGE: How to achieve more progressive fiscal regime? Under current contract rules. Oil&Gas sector • Rents multiply x 2 • State appropriation 45-65% • Aparent “Regressivity” of rent appropriation during boom??? • State Oil companies are the rule. • Use of progressive fiscal instruments for rent capture ( windfall taxes, contratos PSC, participación directa) • Price cycle does not generate investment boom • Decreasing production /consumption ratios and reserves • Rising production costs. • POLICY CHALLENGE: How to mobilize required investment to meet energy demand??? 2001 – 2011 international metal price cycle broke the previous trend of decreasing real prices between 1980 – 2000. Persistency of current price cycle??? Fiscal competition between Mining exporting countries: reduction of Corporate Income Tax rates 1980 – 2010 Remarkable rise of Chile as major world producer of Copper 1946 – 2010 Mine Copper production by major producing countries (Thousand Tons per year ) 6000 Chile 5000 4000 3000 USA 2000 Peru 1000 0 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Chile Peru China U.S.A. Indonesia Australia Source: own elaboration with World Bureau of Metal Statistics, and UNCTAD data. 2013 CONTENTS 1. Production, Reserves, Exploration investments. 2. Increase of Mining Rents during the 2003-2012 price cycle, and State participation ( %, govt. take ). 3. How did governments share in mining wealth? 4. Analysis and comments. – – – Different responses of mining and oil sector to price boom. Fiscal treatment of mining. Discussion of prospects. 2013 Prospects 1. Correction of expectations and rationalization of announced investments projects – – – – Cost increases, in particular energy costs. Expectations of downward adjustments in world metal prices. Impact of European financial crisis. Increasing number of socio-environmental conflicts. 2. Social impact of increased rents? – – – – Earmarked use of Mining and Oil/Gas fiscal receipts? Indirect: Improved fiscal balances enable increased social spending? Indirect: Improved macroeconomic stability, debt reduction? vs. currency appreciation? Increased investment in Mining and Oil/Gas associated with increasing socio/environmental conflicts in the region. Oil prices rise, but investment in drilling activity falls. Production/consumption ratio and reserves fall. Oil Price boom, but production costs also rise. Price WTI -Cost investment - - Costo operation -- . -- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Mundo ALC Mundo ALC Mundo ALC Mundo ALC Mundo 0 ALC 0 Mundo 500 ALC 50 Mundo 1000 ALC 100 Mundo 1500 ALC 150 Mundo 2000 ALC 200 Mundo 2500 ALC 250 Mundo 3000 2010 Upstream investment lag in LAC is worrisome and jeopardizes the region net exporting position as supplier of oil & gas in world markets. Fuentes: Baker and Hughes 2012, BP 2011, AIE 2011, IHS CERA 2012 Nota: Datos sin escala Oil drills in activitiy 3500 300 ALC Indice 2000=100 350 World drilling activity rises in response to price boom, not so in LAC ( exceptions Brazil and Colombia) Net Fiscal position has historically been a deficit: -Low saving rate -Low tax burden 2005 - 2009 Fiscal Dependence on Resource Revenues Resource Export Dependence (2007 peak year for mineral/oil prices before global financial crisis) Lower tax burden relative to other regions. Within Lat. America resource exporters tend to lower tax burdens. Back to business as usual after 2009? 2005 - 2009 Reserves / Production ratio is falling accross the region, except in Venezuela ( shows decreased investment in upstream exploration) Lat. Am. w/o Venezuela Lat. America 80 Gas Reserves fall 4x 70 60 VEN 50 Oil Reserves fall 2.5 x VEN 40 1995 30 2000 2005 20 2009 2010 10 Total ALC Total ALC s/Venezuela Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de BP2011. Petroleo&GasNatural Petróleo Gas Natural Petroleo&GasNatural Petróleo Gas Natural 0 Mineral and Metal price index after 2009 Source: World Bank commodity indexes 2011 Mining Sector 2004-2011 • Rents multiply x 4 • State appropriation < 33% (benchmark int’l) • Guatemala, Honduras < 13% of total rent appropriated by State • Private concesion regimes, State participation the exception. • Use of traditional fiscal instruments ( corporate income tax and royalties) Oil&Gas sector • Rents multiply x 2 • State appropriation 45-65% • Apprent “Regressivity” of rent appropriation during boom??? • State Oil companies are the rule. • Use of progressive fiscal instruments for rent capture ( windfall taxes, contratos PSC, participación directa) Need to introduce PROGRESSIVE INSTRUMENTS i.e. Resource Rent Taxes (RRT) etc. • Price cycle generates investment boom, growing production. • POLICY CHALLENGE: How to achieve more progressive fiscal regime? Under current contract rules. • Price cycle does not generate investment boom • Decreasing production /consumption ratios and reserves • Rising production costs. • POLICY CHALLENGE: How to mobilize required investment to meet energy demand??? Increasing socio-environmental conflicts to project development Economic sector impacted 3% 3% 2%2% AGRICULTURA PESCA GANADERIA 90% COMERCIO TURISMO Elaborado con la información del Observatorio de Conflictos Socio-Ambientales en América Latina (OLCA) 2013 Thank you very much!!!! ANNEXES Jean Acquatella Ph.D. Energy and Natural Resources Unit United Nations ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Santiago, Chile. Jean.acquatella@cepal.org