What will Happen in the Future of Human Society ? Hiroshi Tasaka Professor at Tama University President of Think Tank SophiaBank First Question Can We Predict the Future ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 1 The Answer is No Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 2 Because “A small fluctuation will change drastically the future of the evolution of a system.” Ilya Prigogine Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 3 In Other Words Butterfly Effect Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 4 Chaos Theory A small butterfly in Beijing would cause a huge hurricane in New York. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 5 So We Cannot Predict the Future. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 6 But We Can Foresee the Future. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 7 In Other Words We Cannot Predict Events. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 8 We Can Foresee Trends and Paradigm Changes. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 9 In What Way ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 10 By Philosophy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 11 Dialectic Philosophy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 12 by Georg Hegel Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 13 by Existentialism of Jean Paul Sartre Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 14 by Zen Buddhism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 15 by Taoism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 16 What is Dialectic ? Five Laws of Dialectic Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 17 Law of Spiral Up Process Law of Mutual Infiltration Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 18 Law of Double Denial Process Law of Quantity to Quality Process Law of Sublation of Contradiction Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 19 What is the Most Important Law to Foresee the Future ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 20 Law of Spiral Up Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 21 What is the Law of Spiral Up Process ? Development of the World is like Climbing Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 22 Another Expression “Old Thing” Once Disappeared will Revive with “New Value” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 23 Where are Examples ? Many Examples in The Internet Revolution and The Web2.0 Revolution Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 24 Example Auction and Reverse Auction Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 25 What is “New Value” ? In the Past For Hundreds of People At Present For Millions of People Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 26 Another Example E mail Revival of “Letter” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 27 Another Example E Learning Revival of “Tutorial System” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 28 What is the Second Important Law to Foresee the Future ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 29 Law of Mutual Infiltration Process Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 30 What is the Law of Mutual Infiltration Process ? Two Opposite Principles in Competition will Fuse into A New Principle. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 31 Where are Examples ? Policy of Labour and Conservative Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 32 Another Example Principle of Socialism and Capitalism Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 33 Example of the Internet Role of Producer and Consumer Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 34 Example of the Internet “Pro-sumer Development” on the Web by Alvin Toffler Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 35 Important Question Why Dialectic Now ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 36 Dialectic Law has been Happening in the Past History. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 37 Because of Dog Year (7times faster) Mouse Year (18times faster) Acceleration of Change Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 38 In the Past We could Climb Up A Spiral Staircase Just for a Few Steps in Our Lifetime. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 39 But Now We are Running Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 40 In the Past Spiral Up Process was An Interest only for Historian. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 41 But Now Spiral Up Process is An Interest even for Businessperson. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 42 Then What Paradigm Changes can be foreseen by Dialectic ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 43 Eight Paradigm Changes Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 44 First Paradigm Change What will Happen to Economy ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 45 Paradigm Change Monetary Economy to Voluntary Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 46 Spiral Up Process of Economy Old Voluntary Economy will Revive with “New Value”. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 47 What is Voluntary Economy ? An Economy driven by the Motivation of People to “Satisfy Mind” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 48 What is Monetary Economy ? An Economy driven by the Motivation of People to “Acquire Money” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 49 Example of the Internet Revolution Linux Project by Linus Torvalds Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 50 Example of the Web2.0 Revolution Customer Generate Contents Knowledge of Q&A Community Grassroots Critics of Amazon Grassroots Movies of You Tube Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 51 What is “New Value” ? Local Community to Global Community Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 52 What is “New Value” ? Invisible Economy to Visible Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 53 What will Happen after the Revival of Voluntary Economy ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 54 Mutual Infiltration Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 55 In Other Words Merger of Monetary Economy and Voluntary Economy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 56 Example Google, Amazon, You Tube Fusion of Profitable Business Model and Consumer Generated Contents Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 57 What will Happen Next ? Emergence of New Economic Principle Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 58 Second Paradigm Change What will Happen to Innovation ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 59 Paradigm Change Beneficiary Innovation to Participatory Innovation Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 60 What is Beneficiary Innovation ? Innovation Promoted by Governments and Large Companies for Grassroots Consumers as Beneficiary Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 61 What is Participatory Innovation ? Innovation Promoted by the Participation of Grassroots Consumer Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 62 Example Innovation of Social Systems by Open Source Policy Making Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 63 Examples Innovation of Products and Services by Pro-sumer Development Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 64 Why does the Paradigm Change Happen ? Revival of the Way of Innovation in Primitive Community Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 65 Third Paradigm Change What will Happen to Democracy ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 66 Paradigm Change Indirect Democracy to Neo Direct Democracy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 67 What is Neo Direct Democracy “Direct Democracy” in True Meaning Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 68 What is Democracy ? Democracy is not only the Problem of “Participation to Decision Making” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 69 What is Democracy ? Democracy is but also the Problem of “Participation to Innovative Action” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 70 What is Democracy ? Democracy is not only the Problem of “Politics” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 71 What is Democracy ? Democracy is but also the Problem of “Economy” and “Culture” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 72 Until Now Economy and Culture have been Indirect Democracy. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 73 Until Now Companies have been Representatives of Consumers by using Market Research. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 74 From Now Consumers will be able to Design, Produce and Use what they want. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 75 In Other Words What you Desire is What you Get. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 76 Spiral Up Process of Democracy Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 77 Fourth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Organization ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 78 Paradigm Change Profit Organization v.s. NPO to Social Enterprise Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 79 What will Happen to Organization ? Mutual Infiltration of Profit Organization and Non-profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 80 Example Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Movement from Profit Organization to Non-profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 81 Example Social Entrepreneur Movement from Non -profit Organization to Profit Organization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 82 What will Happen after Infiltration ? Social Enterprise To Contribute to Society through Main Business To Create a Cash Flow for Sustainable Contribution Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 83 Fifth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Talent ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 84 Paradigm Change Single Talent Professional to Multi Talent Professional Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 85 What will Happen to Talent ? Web2.0 Revolution will make People Rather Easy to become A Professional. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 86 What will Happen to Society ? “Da Vinci Society” Multi Talents Flowers in People like Leonard Da Vinci Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 87 Example Sales Manager in a Company Member of Pro-sumer Community Social Entrepreneur for Ecology Music Composer on the Web Series of Essay on the Blog Short Movies to You Tube Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 88 Sixth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Personality ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 89 Paradigm Change Single Personality Life to Multi Personality Life Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 90 What will Happen to Personality ? Web2.0 Revolution will Enable People to Express Themselves in Many Ways. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 91 Why is Expressing Oneself so Important ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 92 Expressing Oneself is A Healing Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 93 Why is that a Healing ? We Always Choose a “Persona” to Adopt Oneself to the Circumstances Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 94 There are Many Personalities Deep Inside of Us Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 95 But We Always Repress Most of Them to Avoid Confusion in Daily Life. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 96 How Can We Express Hidden Oneself ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 97 Three Ways Anonymous Message Playing a Person in Drama Non Language Expression Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 98 What is the Meaning of Web2.0 Revolution in this Context ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 99 Seventh Paradigm Change What will Happen to World View ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 100 Paradigm Change Mechanical System Paradigm to Living System Paradigm Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 101 What is Mechanical System Paradigm ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 102 A tendency to think that the world is like a huge mechanical system and we can design and manipulate it freely. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 103 Examples Typical Wording Re-engineering of Company Re-structuring of System Blue Print of Society Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 104 What is Living System Paradigm ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 105 The way of thinking that the world is like a great living system which we cannot design and manipulate intentionally. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 106 Why does this Paradigm Change Happen ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 107 Because of Internet Revolution and Web2.0 Revolution? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 108 The Revolutions make Corporations, Markets and Society more “Inter-related”. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 109 Then Systems of Corporations, Markets and Society will evolve into “Complex Systems”. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 110 What is Complex System ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 111 A System Characterized by Coherence, Self Organization Emergence, Co-evolution Ecosystem Butterfly Effect etc. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 112 What is the Essence of Complex System ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 113 Living System Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 114 The Insight of Gregory Bateson Complex System Seems to behave as a “Living System”. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 115 Internet Revolution and Web2.0 Revolution will naturally Require Us Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 116 to Change the Paradigm from Mechanical System Paradigm to Living System Paradigm Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 117 Because Corporations, Markets and Society will Become Living Systems. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 118 And Because There will be Created A Huge Ecosystem of Minds. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 119 Example Key Words In Web2.0 Revolution Wisdom of Crowds Collective Intelligence Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 120 What is Next ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 121 Collective Intelligence to Collective Consciousness Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 122 Collective Consciousness to Collective Sub-consciousness (Carl Gustav Jung) Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 123 The Insight of Gregory Bateson Ecology of Mind Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 124 Why is Living System Paradigm So Important Now ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 125 All of Global Problems including Global Warming are the Problems of Complex Systems. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 126 Eighth Paradigm Change What will Happen to Civilization ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 127 Important Question Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 128 How to Cope with the Complex Systems as “Living Systems” Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 129 Seven Problems of Complex Systems Impossibility of Analysis Impossibility of Prediction Impossibility of Division Impossibility of Control Sensitivity to Small Information Sensitivity to Fluctuation Frequent Change of Law Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 130 Seven Pillars of Wisdom for Complex Systems Not to Analyze, But to Use Intuition and Insight. Not to Predict the Future, But to Create it. Not to Divide, But to Treat as a Whole. Not to Control, But to Promote Emergence. Not only Share Information, But also Create Coherence. Not to Use Large Power, But to Use Butterfly Effect. Not to Learn Law, But to Change Law. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 131 Where is the Wisdom to Cope with Complex systems as Living System ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 132 In Old Community and in Old Society of Each Country Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 133 Spiral Up Process of Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 134 Revival of Old Value System and Old Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 135 Then What is the Mutual Filtration Process of Civilization ? Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 136 Eastern Civilization and Western Civilization Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 137 The History of Humankind is Climbing Up A Spiral Staircase. Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 138