icmif FINANCIAL INSIGHTS International Cooperative and Mutual Insurance Federation Market InSights 2015 Latin America INCLUDING REGIONAL MUTUAL AND COOPERATIVE INSURANCE MARKET SHARE MUTUAL LIFE AND NON-LIFE GROWTH AND MARKET COMMENTARY THE 25 LARGEST LOCALLY-OWNED LATIN AMERICAN MUTUAL/COOPERATIVE INSURERS www.icmif.org LATIN AMERICAN MARKET SUMMARY Despite a small contraction in regional economic growth, the Latin American insurance market remained robust in 2015, growing by 4.6% in real terms1, only marginally slower than the previous year (2014: +5.2%). In nominal terms, high inflation levels in the majority of countries, most notably Venezuela and Argentina, boosted premium volume development in local currency terms. However, a steep depreciation of virtually all local currencies against the US dollar throughout 2015 resulted in an 11.6% decline in regional premium levels, falling to USD 155 billion from USD 175 billion in 2014. Since the onset of the global financial crisis, premium volumes increased in five of the previous eight years accumulating to a total growth2 of 77% from 2007 to 2015. LATIN AMERICAN MUTUAL MARKET SUMMARY Between 2007 and 2015, premium volumes of the mutual and cooperative (hereafter referred to as “mutual”) insurance sector in Latin America experienced an aggregate growth of 114%. As a result, mutual insurers’ market share increased from 9.9% in 2007 to a record 12.0% in 2015 (see Figure 1). Latin American mutual insurers collectively wrote USD 18.6 billion in insurance premiums in 2015, representing a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year (2014: USD 19.6 billion). 2015 was the first year of premium decrease since 2007. However, the decline in mutual business was not as severe as that of the total industry, resulting in a rise in mutuals’ share of the total regional market, up from 11.2% in 2014. Figure 1 Latin American mutual premiums and market share 20,000 14% 11.7% 11.4% 12.0% 11.7% 11.3% 11.3% 12% 11.2% 10.8% 12,000 9.9% 10% 8,000 8% 4,000 0 1 2 6% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Swiss Re, sigma No.03/2016, World insurance in 2015 Regional growth rates in terms of US dollar (USD), with other growth rates in terms of local currency (unless otherwise stated). 2015 Market share Premium USD millions Premiums (USD millions) 16,000 Mutual and cooperative insurers in Latin America collectively held a record market share of 12.0% in 2015, a significant increase from 9.9% in 2007 Since 2007, growth of the mutual sector exceeded the regional market average in four of the previous eight years. During this period, mutual insurers collectively registered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.0%, compared to a 7.4% CAGR seen by the total regional market. Brazil, the region’s dominant insurance market, continued as the largest market in terms of mutual premiums written in 2015, accounting for a quarter (USD 4.7 billion) of total Latin American mutual business (see Figure 2). Argentinian mutuals wrote just under USD 4.5 billion in insurance in 2015, representing 24% of the region’s total (up from a 19% contribution in 2014). The Mexican mutual sector also saw an increase in its contribution to regional business, growing from 14% to nearly 17% in 2015 (USD 3.1 billion). Mutuals in Venezuela (USD 1.8 billion), Colombia (USD 1.2 billion) and Chile (USD 1.0 billion) all wrote more than USD 1 billion in insurance premiums in 2015; just over 20% of total regional business was derived from these three markets combined. In 11 of the 15 Latin American markets featured in this report, mutual insurance accounted for more than 10% of the national insurance market in 2015 (see Figure 3). In five markets, mutual insurers collectively held more than 20% of their national markets, including Argentina and Venezuela, the region’s third and sixth largest total insurance markets respectively. Figure 3 Latin American mutual market share (2015) Mutual market share (2015) by country >25% 15-25% 10-15% 5-10% <5% THE LATIN AMERICAN MUTUAL AND COOPERATIVE SECTOR IN 2015 USD 18.6 billion in premium income 12.0% share of the total regional market USD 33.3 billion in total assets Over 42,000 people employed Approx 25 million members/policyholders served Figure 2 Country split of Latin American mutual premiums (2015) Other 2,338 Chile (4) 1,024 Brazil (1) 4,705 Colombia (5) 1,194 Venezuela (6) 1,755 Argentina (3) 4,497 Mexico (2) 3,102 Figures in USD millions Numbers in brackets ( ) show regional premium rank as per Swiss Re World Insurance in 2015 Paraguay had the highest penetration of mutual insurance in 2015, with mutual insurers accounting for just under 30% of the total market in 2015 (29.6%). The mutual sector in Puerto Rico held 26.4% of the national market and in Panama the mutual market share in 2015 was up to 24.1% (from 22.3% in 2014). Mutuals also held a significant share of the national market in many other medium-sized economies in the region, including Colombia (15.2%), Panama (24.1%) and Uruguay (14.9%). MUTUAL MARKET SHARE GROWTH Since 2007, 14 of the 15 Latin American markets experienced a growth in mutual market share. The exception was the Colombian mutual market which saw its market share fall from 17.7% in 2007 to 15.2% in 2015, although the loss in market share can be attributed to a one-year fall in mutual life premiums in 2015. In the other largest Latin American markets (ranked by mutual premium income), mutuals held a higher market share in 2015 compared to 2007 (see Figure 4). Figure 4 Mutual market share in the largest regional markets by mutual premiums 2015 6.8% Brazil (14) 7.0% 2011 6.5% 2007 23.2% Argentina (29) 26.0% 18.7% 12.3% Mexico (26) 9.0% 8.4% 23.4% Venezuela (44) 21.1% 18.1% 15.2% Colombia (43) 18.5% 17.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% Mutual market share Numbers in brackets ( ) show global premium rank as per Swiss Re World Insurance in 2015 20% 25% 30% Mutual insurers in Peru impressively grew their market share in seven of the previous eight years, with year-on-year growth since 2010 (from 10.2% to 14.0% in 2015). Similarly, the mutual sectors in Panama and Guatemala posted six years of positive market share growth in the eight-year period since 2007. Foreign-owned multinational mutual groups from Europe and North America hold an important stake in the majority of Latin American mutual markets, and have been a key driver for growth since the financial crisis. Emerging markets have been attractive to overseas insurers seeking to stimulate premium growth, as suppressed demand in mature markets since the financial crisis has hampered premium development. Figure 5 Local and foreign-owned mutual compound annual growth rates (CAGR) since 2007 25% 20% 19.9% 18.4% 15% % growth In Brazil, mutual market share has remained constant, as growth of the mutual sector has mirrored the growth of the total market since 2007. In contrast, Argentinian mutuals have considerably increased their share of the national market, from 18.7% in 2007 to 23.2%; however, mutual market share was lower in 2015 than in 2011 (26.0%). Mutuals in Mexico and Venezuela have experienced a rise in their share of the local market compared with both 2007 and 2011 levels. Mexican mutuals recorded a gain of almost four percentage points since 2007 (from 8.4% to 12.3%) and Venezuelan mutuals of more than five percentage points (from 18.1% to 23.4%). 9.5% 10% 5% -1.4% 0% 2007-2011 2011-2015 -5% Local-owned mutuals Foreign-owned mutuals In recent years, however, growth in regional mutual business has been driven by locally-owned mutuals rather than subsidiaries of foreign-owned mutuals. Between 2011 and 2015, the CGAR of locally-owned mutual insurers in the region was 9.5% compared to -1.4% for foreign-owned mutuals (see Figure 5). At a country level, mutuals in just under half (seven) increased their market share in 2015 from the previous year. Five countries also achieved a record market share in 2015: Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Costa Rica and Guatemala. Mutuals in Mexico and Costa Rica saw the strongest proportional growth in mutual market share in 2015. Mexican mutual share reached 12.3% in 2015 increasing from 10.0% in 2014 and Costa Rican mutuals held a 6.3% share of the national market in 2015, up from 4.5% in the previous year. Colombian mutuals recorded the largest loss in mutual market share in 2015, falling to 15.2% from 17.8% in 2014, due to a decline in mutual life business. Three of the largest mutual markets in terms of market share (Argentina, Puerto Rico and Paraguay) experienced a contraction in market share from the previous year. Uruguay, Chile and Brazil also saw a loss in market share, albeit to a smaller extent. Mutuals in Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Costa Rica and Guatemala all achieved a record share of their respective national insurance markets in 2015. LATIN AMERICAN MUTUAL LIFE AND NON-LIFE BUSINESS Growth (in real terms) of the total Latin American insurance market in 2015 primarily stemmed from an improvement in the life market. Real growth of life premiums accelerated to 7.5% in 2015 from 3.1% in 2014. Despite this, the devaluation of Latin American currencies (especially the Brazilian real and Venezuela bolívar3) led to a premium decrease in USD terms, falling 11.4% in 2015. The mutual life sector also reported negative growth in regional premium volumes in 2015 of -10.2%, despite positive growth in the majority of markets in local currency terms. Mutual life premiums in 2015 (USD 3.3 billion) were 52% greater than 2007 levels. However, in comparison, the total life market almost doubled in the same period, resulting in a loss in the mutual sector’s share of the regional life market, down to 5.1% from 6.4% in 2007 (see Figure 6). Real growth in the total regional non-life sector (+2.3%) was more restrained than in the life sector in 2015, and in comparison with the previous year (2014: +6.9%). Currency depreciation again impacted regional non-life premium volumes in USD terms, with a decline of 12% from the previous year. Despite the contraction, non-life business revenues remained more than two-thirds greater than pre-crisis (2007) levels. The regional mutual non-life sector performed far better, recording a less severe 3.9% drop in premium volumes in 2015 to USD 15.3 billion (from USD 15.9 billion in 2014). Since 2007, mutual non-life business has expanded by more than 135% and registered a CAGR of 11.3% (compared to the market average CAGR of 6.6%). Mutual insurers held a higher proportion of the region’s non-life market than of the life market. Mutuals’ share of the non-life market reached 17.2% in 2015, a sizeable increase from the previous year (2014: 15.8%) and a gain of five percentage points since 2007 (12.2%). Figure 6 Regional mutual life and non-life premiums and market share 17.2% 15.9% 15.2% 15.4% 16,000 12.2% 16.2% 17.2% 15.8% 16% 13.7% 14% 12% 12,000 8,000 18% 10% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 5.9% 8% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 6% Market share Premiums (USD millions) 20,000 4% 4,000 2% 0 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 2010 2012 2011 Life 3 20 2013 2012 0% 2013 2014 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Non-life Due to hyperinflation in Venezuela, a weighted exchange rate has been applied for converting the Venezuela bolívar into US dollars for 2015 and previous years, which takes in consideration other currencies being used in the country and not just the fixed official rate. Therefore, some revisions and variations to past years’ figures (for both the Venezuelan market and regional market) will be noted. MUTUAL LIFE MARKET COMMENTARY Traditional life insurance sales accounted for just under 70% of Latin America mutual life business written in 2015 (see Figure 7). More than a quarter of premium income (26.6%) came from disability and health business and the remaining 5% of life business came from other products lines, including less than 2% from pension and annuities. Costa Rica has the highest prevalence of mutual business and the sector posted an impressive 25% premium growth in 2015, driven by group life policies, while the rest of the market contracted by 6%. This resulted in a proportional growth of mutuals’ share of the life market of one third, up from 36.9% in 2014 to 48.9%. In Mexico, the region’s largest mutual sector in terms of life premiums, mutual market share advanced to a record 13.5% in 2015 (2014: 12.4%) due to 17% growth in premiums. Chilean mutuals reported life premium growth of almost 40% (market average growth of 24%), although mutual penetration remained lower than in other markets (2015: 4.0%). Figure 7 Mutual life premiums by line of business (2015) Disability and health 26.6% Other 2.9% Life 68.7% Pension and annuities 1.7% Despite the overall growth in the mutual market share of life business across the region in 2015 (5.1% from 5.0% in 2014), mutuals in 11 of the 15 Latin American markets experienced a fall in market share. Colombia suffered the largest loss in mutual market share, falling to 14.5% from 23.2% in 2014. Colombian life premiums fell sharply in 2015 (-31%) for the second year due to the cancellation of (loss-making) life contracts. In Puerto Rico, the mutuals’ share of the total life market dropped to 17.6% in 2015 from 22.3% in the previous year. Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay also saw a decrease in mutual market share in their respective life markets. MUTUAL NON-LIFE MARKET COMMENTARY Motor insurance was the largest line of mutual non-life business in Latin America, contributing almost half (49.3%) of total regional premiums in 2015 (see Figure 8). It was the dominant line of mutual business in the majority of Latin American markets, with more than a 50% share in three of the five largest markets in the region (see Figure 9). Workers’ compensation business accounted for 18% of regional mutual non-life business in 2015. This line of business was most prevalent in Argentina where it contributed 37% of the country’s mutual non-life premiums (through mutually-owned Aseguradoras de Riesgos del Trabajo, or ARTs). Over 95% of the region’s total workers’ compensation business was written by these Argentinian ARTs. In other lines of business, health insurance contributed 7.2% of total mutual premiums in 2014, with the highest concentration in Brazil (15% of the country’s total non-life premiums). Transport and property premiums made up 4.5% and 3.7% of mutuals’ non-life business respectively. Mexican mutuals had the highest proportion of property premiums (17%) out of the region’s largest mutual markets in 2015. The remaining 17% of regional mutual non-life revenue came from other insurance products, such as agricultural, personal accident and liability lines. Figure 8 Mutual non-life premiums by line of business (2015) Other 11.9% Agriculture 2.4% Accident/liability 3.1% Property 3.7% Transport 4.5% Motor 49.3% Health 7.2% Worker’s compensation 17.9% As expected considering the region’s overall growth in non-life market share, over 70% of markets increased their national mutual share in 2015. In Brazil, mutual non-life growth was just under 10% stimulated by a rapid increase in agricultural insurance business and supported by a second year of double-digit increases in motor premiums. Mutual growth remained ahead of the market average (+6.2%), as the mutual sector’s share of the total market rose to 13.6% in 2015 from 13.2% in 2014. Mutual insurers in Argentina reported an aggregate premium growth of 36% in 2015 and overtook Brazil as the region’s largest non-life mutual sector. However, growth was just below the market expansion (41%) and resulted in a third successive year of loss in non-life market share (down to 27.8% from a peak of 32.3% in 2012). The Mexican mutual sector recorded the most impressive premium development in 2015, as huge increases in industrial risk and transportation premiums contributed to a 58% premium growth (compared to market average growth of 10.8%). Mutual non-life insurers grew to hold more than 10% of the market (11.3%) for the first time in 2015, increasing from 7.9% in 2014. Mutual premiums surged in Venezuela as a result of soaring inflation in the country, although the contribution to regional growth by Venezuelan mutuals was limited due to the devaluation of the local currency. Nonetheless, growth of the national mutual sector exceeded the rest of the market, resulting in an increase in non-life market share to a record 23.7% from 22.4% in 2014. In other markets, mutuals in Peru and Panama posted the strongest growth in non-life market share in 2015, increasing to 17.3% (from 15.4% in 2014) and 21.6% (from 19.3%) respectively. The Puerto Rican non-life mutual sector, the region’s largest in terms of mutual share, saw renewed growth in 2015, taking its market share up to 32.7% in 2015 (2014: 31.6%). Non-life business growth of mutual insurers in Ecuador, Uruguay, Guatemala and Colombia all exceeded the local market average, in contrast to the loss of mutual share in their respective life markets. Figure 9 Lines of mutual non-life business by country (2015) in the five largest mutual non-life markets Motor Brazil Worker’s compensation Health Argentina Transport Property Venezuela Accident/liability Agriculture Mexico Other Colombia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % of national non-life business 70% 80% 90% 100% Figure 10 The 25 largest locally-owned mutual insurers in Latin America 2015 Rank 2014 Rank 1 Gross written premiums (USD ‘000) 2015 2014 2013 % growth 2014-2015* 1,567,720 1,285,860 1,421,520 +39.1% 767,369 814,683 +45.3% 1,012,854 695,739 +8.9% Company Country 1 Grupo Sancor Seguros Argentina1 2 3 San Cristóbal Seguros Argentina 977,277 3 2 Unimed Seguros Brazil 779,283 4 4 La Segunda Argentina 677,991 581,436 647,386 +33.0% 5 6 Seguros Rivadavia Argentina 411,438 313,430 295,805 +49.7% 6 5 Cooperativa de Seguros Múltiples Puerto Rico 316,504 327,639 329,245 -3.4% 7 8 La Equidad Seguros Colombia 171,300 185,639 143,195 +26.4% 8 7 Aseguradora Solidaria Colombia 149,223 211,622 173,104 -3.4% 9 10 Cooperacion Seguros Coop Mutual - Patronal Argentina 89,215 69,447 75,250 +46.5% 10 13 Río Uruguay Seguros Argentina 77,545 51,228 52,991 +72.7% 11 9 COSVI Puerto Rico 71,631 85,516 86,174 -16.2% 12 11 Mutual de Seguros de Chile Chile 65,511 60,227 62,441 +24.7% 13 12 Segurcoop Argentina 61,219 52,361 64,379 +33.4% 14 14 Sociedad de Seguros de Vida del Magisterio Nacional Costa Rica 54,624 46,900 40,917 +15.6% 15 15 Mutualidad de Carabineros Chile 48,651 46,880 47,495 +19.0% 16 19 Triunfo Seguros Argentina 38,068 27,367 27,582 +58.7% 17 17 Segurometal Argentina 36,851 30,626 38,040 +37.3% 18 18 La Nueva Argentina 34,129 28,140 31,653 +38.4% 19 16 Mutual del Ejercito y Aviación Chile 33,655 36,798 39,883 +4.9% 20 21 Seguros FEDPA Panama 25,568 18,402 20,068 +38.9% +115.1% 21 26 Productores de Frutas Argentina 24,423 12,950 7,867 22 20 SURCO Seguros Uruguay 21,920 23,340 23,720 +10.1% 23 25 El Progresso Seguros Argentina 15,289 13,522 15,319 +29.0% 24 24 COLUMNA Guatemala 14,969 13,589 12,032 +9.6% 25 27 Copan Seguros Argentina 14,416 10,461 10,514 +57.2% ICMIF members highlighted in orange * Growth in terms of local currency 1 Also includes group business written in Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil TOTAL ASSETS OF THE MUTUAL SECTOR Figure 11 Total assets of the mutual sector 40,000 35,000 Total assets (USD millions) Mutual insurers in Latin America collectively held USD 33.3 billion in total assets in 2015 (see Figure 11). This represented a decrease of 5.5% from the previous year (2014: USD 35.2 billion) as currency depreciation put pressure on regional asset values in USD terms. However, in local currency terms, virtually all Latin American markets (93%) reported an increase in total assets from the previous year (2014). Since 2007, total assets of the mutual sector experienced 115% growth. Mutuals’ assets had grown year-on-year between 2007 and 2014, and the eight-year CAGR to 2015 was 10% (matching the CAGR growth in mutual premium income between 2007 and 2015). Mexico overtook Brazil as the largest market in terms of mutual insurers’ assets in 2015 (see Figure 12) with just under USD 8 billion in total assets, a 30% growth from the previous year. Brazilian mutuals’ asset values fell to USD 7.4 billion in 2015, although growth from the previous year in local currency terms was robust at 8.5%. In Argentina, mutual insurers’ aggregate assets grew by a third as they held more than USD 5 billion for the first time in 2015. Four other markets had mutual asset values of more than USD 1 billion in 2015: Chile, Colombia, Venezuela and Puerto Rico. The seven largest markets contributed 93% of the region’s total mutual assets. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 12 The largest Latin American markets in terms of total mutual assets (2015) Mexico 7,902 Brazil 7,352 Argentina 5,630 Chile 3,248 Colombia 2,713 Venezuela 2,185 Puerto Rico 1,925 Peru 918 Panama 510 Uruguay 250 Other 689 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Total assets (USD millions) 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 METHODOLOGY ICMIF’s definition of “mutual and cooperative” in this report includes organizations whose legal status may not be classified as such in their national law, but whose structure and values reflect the mutual/cooperative form, i.e. companies which are owned by, governed by and operated in the interests of their member policyholders. These include limited companies owned by people-based organizations, friendly societies, reciprocals, non-profits, community organisations and foundations. Extending the definition in this way has enabled us to include all organizations which operate on mutual/cooperative principles, in line with our research objectives, without being restricted by legal definitions of which there is a wide variety across the globe and some of which are particular to one country alone. Variable currency exchange rates were used for the different years, with all figures converted into US Dollars (USD). This allows for a more accurate calculation of mutual market share, as exchange rates are consistent with those used by Swiss Re to calculate Latin American figures. Growth figures of individual markets are calculated in terms of local currency throughout the report, to eliminate the misleading effects of exchange rate fluctuations and thus ensure accurate year-on-year comparisons. APPENDIX - MUTUAL MARKET SHARE IN LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS Country Global premium rank* Total mutual market share % growth 2014-2015 Life mutual market share % growth 2014-2015 Non-life mutual market % growth 2014-2015 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 Brazil 14 6.8% 6.9% -0.8% 0.9% 0.9% +3.8% 13.6% 13.2% +3.4% Mexico 26 12.3% 10.0% +23.3% 13.5% 12.4% +9.1% 11.3% 7.9% +42.6% Argentina 29 23.2% 23.9% -3.2% 2.2% 2.7% -19.1% 27.8% 28.9% -3.7% Chile 37 9.0% 9.2% -1.6% 4.0% 3.6% +11.6% 17.0% 17.1% -0.6% Colombia 43 15.2% 17.8% -14.6% 14.5% 23.2% -37.7% 15.5% 15.5% +0.2% Venezuela 44 23.4% 22.1% +5.8% 3.1% 3.2% -0.4% 23.7% 22.4% +5.8% Peru 48 14.0% 13.8% +1.0% 10.4% 12.1% -14.5% 17.3% 15.4% +11.9% Ecuador 55 10.6% 10.3% +2.7% 22.0% 22.8% -3.5% 8.4% 8.2% +2.7% Panama 65 24.1% 22.3% +8.0% 32.0% 32.1% -0.4% 21.6% 19.3% +12.0% Uruguay 68 14.9% 15.2% -2.0% 14.0% 16.4% -14.6% 15.3% 14.7% +4.4% Costa Rica 75 6.3% 4.5% +37.9% 48.9% 36.9% +32.6% 0.0% 0.0% n/a Dominican Republic 82 0.7% 0.8% -7.3% 1.9% 2.1% -9.0% 0.6% 0.6% -7.1% Guatemala 84 13.8% 13.3% +3.4% 24.9% 26.2% -5.1% 11.1% 9.9% +11.6% Puerto Rico(1) n/a 26.4% 28.3% -6.9% 17.6% 22.3% -20.8% 32.7% 31.6% +3.3% Paraguay n/a 29.6% 30.8% -3.9% 16.5% 17.4% -5.4% 31.6% 32.6% -3.1% 12.0% 11.2% +7.4% 5.1% 5.0% +1.3% 17.2% 15.8% +9.1% Total * As per Swiss Re (1) Figures for non-life insurance in Puerto Rico exclude Health and Disability insurance Market InSights: Latin America 2015 The research team at ICMIF: Project Manager: Ben Telfer (ben@icmif.org) Editing: Faye Lageu Report design: Nick Easton Published August 2016 Copyright © International Cooperative and Mutual Insurance Federation (ICMIF) 2016 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. ICMIF Market InSights reports are a series of market-specific reports compiled using the latest data from ICMIF’s Global Mutual Market Share research, a market intelligence report on the size of the global mutual and cooperative insurance sector. Published annually alongside the ICMIF Global 500, a definitive list of the 500 largest mutual and cooperative insurers in terms of premium income, the report highlights how since 2007 the mutual and cooperative model has been the fastest growing part of the global insurance market; maturing from a global share of 23.7% to 27.0% in 2014. 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