Índice de Competitividad Global 2015-2016 Análisis de los Resultados de Chile World Economic Forum – Escuela de Gobierno, UAI Septiembre 2015 El 30 de septiembre de 2015, el Foro Económico Mundial y la Escuela de Gobierno de la Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, institución socia del Foro en su programa de competitividad, lanzaron el Informe de Competitividad Mundial 2015-2016 (ver http://www.weforum.org/issues/globalcompetitiveness). En esta nueva entrega del informe, Chile retrocedió dos puestos en el Índice de Competitividad Global (ICG) respecto al año 2014, ubicándose en el lugar 35 entre 140 países 1. Pese a mejoras puntuales en 2007, 2010 y 2014, esto confirma una tendencia negativa en la posición de Chile desde 2004 a la fecha. (Gráfico N°1). Gráfico N°1 Chile: ranking histórico Indice de Competitividad Global (ICG) WEF-UAI 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 22 23 27 26 28 30 30 31 48 57 64 67 33 34 33 35 48 55 57 65 68 52 58 65 66 74 60 64 69 72 56 60 69 53 58 58 66 68 67 68 53 61 61 69 69 73 74 Chile 57 61 65 66 57 61 69 75 78 86 55 56 83 Brazil México Perú Colombia Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI Este año fuimos sobrepasados por República Checa (37 en 2014, 31 en 2015), España (35 en 2014, 33 en 2015) y Kuwait (40 en 2014, 34 en 2015). En consecuencia, Chile descendió del puesto 33 en 2014 al puesto 35 en 2015 (Puerto Rico, que estaba en el lugar 32 en 2014 no fue incluido en la medición 2015, por lo que sólo bajamos dos puestos y no tres). 1 Julio Guzmán C. julio.guzman.c@uai.cl Fernando Medina G. fernando.medina@uai.cl En términos comparativos, Chile continúa liderando la región. Este año se amplía la brecha en términos del índice de competitividad entre Chile, Perú (69) y Brasil (75), pero se reduce entre Chile, México (57) y Colombia (61). Estos movimientos se deben a la caída en el ranking de los dos primeros países y a la subida en el ranking de los dos últimos. Respecto a las fortalezas del país, al observar los 3 subíndices y los 12 pilares a partir de los cuales se construye el ICG (Gráfico N°2), se observa que el desarrollo del mercado financiero (21), el entorno macroeconómico (29) y la calidad de las instituciones (32) sobresalen. En tanto que las principales debilidades del país, se encuentran en la salud y educación primaria (74), la eficiencia del mercado laboral (63) y la sofisticación de los negocios (53). Gráfico N°2 Índice de Competitividad Global WEF-UAI Ranking según Subíndices y Pilares, Chile 2014 y 2015 Chile 2015 Chile 2014 REQUERIMIENTOS BÁSICOS (26.3%) 36 30 Instituciones 28 32 45 Infraestructura Entorno Macroeconómico 22 49 29 Salud y educación primaria 70 POTENCIADORES DE EFICIENCIA (50%) 29 74 31 33 32 Educación superior y capacitación Eficiencia mercado de bienes 40 34 Eficiencia Mercado Laboral 63 50 Desarrollo Mercado Financiero 19 21 39 Tecnología Tamaño del Mercado 42 41 44 50 49 SOFISTICACIÓN E INNOVACIÓN (23.7%) 53 Sofisticación Negocios Innovación 48 0 10 20 30 40 50 55 50 60 70 80 Posición en el ranking Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI En comparación con el año 2014, se avanzó en tan sólo 3 de los 12 pilares del ICG (Infraestructura, Tecnología y Sofisticación en los Negocios) y se retrocedió en los 9 pilares restantes. En cuanto a los subíndices, el mayor retroceso corresponde al subíndice de Requerimientos Básicos (baja del lugar 30 al 36), seguido por el subíndice Potenciadores de Eficiencia (baja del lugar 29 al 31) y el subíndice Sofisticación e Innovación (baja del lugar 49 al 50). La Figura adjunta da cuenta de la agrupación de pilares en subíndices. Julio Guzmán C. julio.guzman.c@uai.cl Fernando Medina G. fernando.medina@uai.cl Agrupación de los pilares en subíndices Requerimientos Básicos: • Instituciones • Infraestructura • Entorno Macroeconómico • Salud y educación primaria Claves para economías impulsadas por: FACTORES Potenciadores de Eficiencia: • Educación superior y capacitación • Eficiencia del mercado de bienes • Eficiencia del mercado laboral • Desarrollo del mercado financiero • Disposición de tecnología • Tamaño del mercado Clave para economías impulsadas por: EFICIENCIA Clave para economías impulsadas por: Factores de Sofisticación e Innovación: • Sofisticación en los negocios • Innovación INNOVACIÓN Fuente: WEF En términos comparativos con los países de la OCDE (Gráfico N°3), aún existen brechas relevantes en cuanto a la competitividad de Chile versus este grupo de naciones. Los principales pilares respecto a las cuales Chile se encuentra rezagado son salud y educación primaria, tecnología, sofisticación de los negocios, innovación e infraestructura. Gráfico N°3 Innovación Sofisticación Negocios Tamaño del Mercado Instituciones 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Infraestructura Entorno Macroeconómico Salud y educación primaria LAC OCDE Chile Educación superior y capacitación Tecnología Eficiencia mercado de bienes Desarrollo Mercado Financiero Eficiencia Mercado Laboral Fuente: Elaboración en base a datos WEF-UAI Julio Guzmán C. julio.guzman.c@uai.cl Fernando Medina G. fernando.medina@uai.cl ¿Qué es y para qué sirve la competitividad de un país? La competitividad de un país corresponde al conjunto de instituciones, políticas y factores que determinan el nivel de productividad de un país. A su vez, el nivel de productividad de un país determina la capacidad que tiene su economía para crecer y desarrollarse en el tiempo. Una economía más competitiva es una economía más preparada para mantener un ritmo de crecimiento potencial alto y sostenido. ¿Cómo se mide el Índice de Competitividad Global del WEF? El Índice de Competitividad Global, ICG, se mide anualmente sobre la base de tres subíndices: Requerimientos Básicos (26.3%), Potenciadores de Eficiencia (50%) y Factores de Sofisticación e Innovación (23.7%). Estos subíndices están compuestos a su vez por doce pilares, tales como Instituciones, Infraestructura, Eficiencia del Mercado Laboral, Desarrollo Financiero, entre otros. Estos pilares se construyen a partir de 114 indicadores que se calculan a partir de datos “duros”, tales como deuda pública, esperanza de vida, asistencia escolar, entre otros, y de datos cualitativos recolectados por la Encuesta de Opinión Ejecutiva, que en el caso de Chile es aplicada anualmente por la Escuela de Gobierno de la Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, en su carácter de institución socia del WEF. Julio Guzmán C. julio.guzman.c@uai.cl Fernando Medina G. fernando.medina@uai.cl The Global Competitiveness Index 2015–2016 Rankings Economy Score1 Prev.2 1 Switzerland 5.76 1 2 Singapore 5.68 2 3 United States 5.61 3 4 Germany 5.53 5 5 Netherlands 5.50 6 Japan 7 8 Trend3 Economy Score1 Prev.2 Trend3 Economy Score1 Prev.2 48 Malta 4.39 47 95 El Salvador 3.87 84 49 South Africa 4.39 56 96 Zambia 3.87 96 50 Panama 4.38 48 97 Seychelles 3.86 92 51 Turkey 4.37 45 98 Dominican Republic 3.86 101 8 52 Costa Rica 4.33 51 99 Kenya 3.85 90 5.47 6 53 Romania 4.32 59 100 Nepal 3.85 102 Hong Kong SAR 5.46 7 54 Bulgaria 4.32 54 101 Lebanon 3.84 113 Finland 5.45 4 55 India 4.31 71 102 Kyrgyz Republic 3.83 108 106 9 Sweden 5.43 10 56 Vietnam 4.30 68 103 Gabon 3.83 10 United Kingdom 5.43 9 57 Mexico 4.29 61 104 Mongolia 3.81 98 11 Norway 5.41 11 58 Rwanda 4.29 62 105 Bhutan 3.80 103 12 Denmark 5.33 13 59 Slovenia 4.28 70 106 Argentina 3.79 104 13 Canada 5.31 15 60 Macedonia, FYR 4.28 63 107 Bangladesh 3.76 109 14 Qatar 5.30 16 61 Colombia 4.28 66 108 Nicaragua 3.75 99 15 Taiwan, China 5.28 14 62 Oman 4.25 46 109 Ethiopia 3.75 118 16 New Zealand 5.25 17 63 Hungary 4.25 60 110 Senegal 3.73 112 17 United Arab Emirates 5.24 12 64 Jordan 4.23 64 111 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3.71 n/a 18 Malaysia 5.23 20 65 Cyprus 4.23 58 112 Cape Verde 3.70 114 3.70 107 19 Belgium 5.20 18 66 Georgia 4.22 69 113 Lesotho 20 Luxembourg 5.20 19 67 Slovak Republic 4.22 75 114 Cameroon 3.69 116 21 Australia 5.15 22 68 Sri Lanka 4.21 73 115 Uganda 3.66 122 22 France 5.13 23 69 Peru 4.21 65 116 Egypt 3.66 119 23 Austria 5.12 21 70 Montenegro 4.20 67 117 Bolivia 3.60 105 120 24 Ireland 5.11 25 71 Botswana 4.19 74 118 Paraguay 3.60 25 Saudi Arabia 5.07 24 72 Morocco 4.17 72 119 Ghana 3.58 111 26 Korea, Rep. 4.99 26 73 Uruguay 4.09 80 120 Tanzania 3.57 121 117 27 Israel 4.98 27 74 Iran, Islamic Rep. 4.09 83 121 Guyana 3.56 28 China 4.89 28 75 Brazil 4.08 57 122 Benin 3.55 n/a 29 Iceland 4.83 30 76 Ecuador 4.07 n/a 123 Gambia, The 3.48 125 30 Estonia 4.74 29 77 Croatia 4.07 77 124 Nigeria 3.46 127 31 Czech Republic 4.69 37 78 Guatemala 4.05 78 125 Zimbabwe 3.45 124 32 Thailand 4.64 31 79 Ukraine 4.03 76 126 Pakistan 3.45 129 33 Spain 4.59 35 80 Tajikistan 4.03 91 127 Mali 3.44 128 34 Kuwait 4.59 40 81 Greece 4.02 81 128 Swaziland 3.40 123 35 Chile 4.58 33 82 Armenia 4.01 85 129 Liberia 3.37 n/a 36 Lithuania 4.55 41 83 Lao PDR 4.00 93 130 Madagascar 3.32 130 37 Indonesia 4.52 34 84 Moldova 4.00 82 131 Myanmar 3.32 134 38 Portugal 4.52 36 85 Namibia 3.99 88 132 Venezuela 3.30 131 39 Bahrain 4.52 44 86 Jamaica 3.97 86 133 Mozambique 3.20 133 40 Azerbaijan 4.50 38 87 Algeria 3.97 79 134 Haiti 3.18 137 41 Poland 4.49 43 88 Honduras 3.95 100 135 Malawi 3.15 132 Trend3 !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' !"#$%#&'()*)+' 42 Kazakhstan 4.49 50 89 Trinidad and Tobago 3.94 89 136 Burundi 3.11 139 43 Italy 4.46 49 90 Cambodia 3.94 95 137 Sierra Leone 3.06 138 44 Latvia 4.45 42 91 Côte d’Ivoire 3.93 115 138 Mauritania 3.03 141 45 Russian Federation 4.44 53 92 Tunisia 3.93 87 139 Chad 2.96 143 46 Mauritius 4.43 39 93 Albania 3.93 97 140 Guinea 2.84 144 47 Philippines 4.39 52 94 Serbia 3.89 94 Advanced Economies Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan Emerging and Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Commonwealth of Independent States Emerging and Developing Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Note: The Global Competitiveness Index captures the fundamentals of an economy. Recent developments, including currency (e.g., Switzerland) and commodity price fluctuations (e.g., Azerbaijan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia), geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Ukraine), and security issues (e.g., Turkey) must be kept in mind when interpreting the results. 1 Scale ranges from 1 to 7. 2 This shows the rank out of the 144 economies in the GCI 2014–2015. 3 The trend line shows the evolution in percentile rank since 2007; breaks in the trend line reflect years when the economy was not included in the GCI. © 2015 World Economic Forum The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016 | xv 2: Country/Economy Profiles Chile Key indicators, 2014 GDP (PPP) per capita (int’l $), 1990–2014 Population (millions) ........................................ 17.8 GDP (US$ billions) ........................................ 258.0 GDP per capita (US$) ................................. 14,477 GDP (PPP) as share (%) of world total ............ 0.38 Chile 25,000 Latin America and the Caribbean 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Global Competitiveness Index Rank (out of 140) Score (1–7) Institutions 7 Innovation GCI 2015–2016 ...................................................... 35 ..... 4.6 GCI 2014–2015 (out of 144) ..................................... 33 ......4.6 GCI 2013–2014 (out of 148) ..................................... 34 ......4.6 GCI 2012–2013 (out of 144) ..................................... 33 ......4.6 Infrastructure 6 5 Business sophistication Macroeconomic environment 4 3 2 Basic requirements (26.3%) .......................................36 ......5.1 Market size 1st pillar: Institutions ................................................. 32 ......4.6 2nd pillar: Infrastructure ............................................ 45 ......4.6 3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment .................... 29 ......5.6 4th pillar: Health and primary education ................... 74 ......5.6 Health and primary education 1 Higher education and training Technological readiness Financial market development Efficiency enhancers (50.0%) .....................................31 ......4.7 Goods market efficiency Labor market efficiency 5th pillar: Higher education and training ................... 33 ......5.0 6th pillar: Goods market efficiency ............................ 40 ......4.6 7th pillar: Labor market efficiency ............................. 63 ......4.3 8th pillar: Financial market development ................... 21 ......4.6 9th pillar: Technological readiness ............................ 39 ......4.8 10th pillar: Market size.............................................. 44 ......4.6 Chile Latin America and the Caribbean Stage of development Innovation and sophistication factors (23.7%) ...........50 ......3.8 11th pillar: Business sophistication .......................... 53 ......4.1 12th pillar: Innovation ............................................... 50 ......3.5 1 Transition 1–2 Factor driven 2 Transition 2–3 3 Efficiency driven Innovation driven The most problematic factors for doing business Score* Restrictive labor regulations ...............................................18.0 Inadequately educated workforce ......................................15.8 Inefficient government bureaucracy ...................................14.6 Insufficient capacity to innovate ...........................................9.5 Complexity of tax regulations...............................................7.9 Inadequate supply of infrastructure ......................................6.8 Tax rates..............................................................................5.7 Access to financing .............................................................5.6 Policy instability ...................................................................4.9 Poor work ethic in labor force..............................................4.0 Crime and theft ...................................................................3.0 Poor public health ...............................................................2.1 Corruption ...........................................................................1.3 Government instability/coups ..............................................0.4 Inflation ................................................................................0.4 Foreign currency regulations ................................................0.1 0 * 5 10 15 20 25 From the list of factors, respondents were asked to select the five most problematic for doing business in their country and to rank them between 1 (most problematic) and 5. The score corresponds to the responses weighted according to their rankings. 138 | The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016 © 2015 World Economic Forum 30 2: Country/Economy Profiles Chile The Global Competitiveness Index in detail INDICATOR VALUE RANK/140 INDICATOR 1st pillar: Institutions VALUE RANK/140 6th pillar: Goods market efficiency (cont’d.) 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 Property rights ....................................................... 5.1 ............35 Intellectual property protection ............................... 4.2 ............49 Diversion of public funds ........................................ 4.6 ............31 Public trust in politicians ......................................... 3.3 ............53 Irregular payments and bribes ................................ 5.5 ............28 Judicial independence............................................ 5.0 ............31 Favoritism in decisions of government officials ....... 3.6 ............42 Wastefulness of government spending ................... 4.2 ............21 Burden of government regulation ........................... 3.7 ............45 Efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes .... 4.0 ............47 Efficiency of legal framework in challenging regs. ... 4.0 ............42 Transparency of government policymaking............. 4.9 ............26 Business costs of terrorism .................................... 5.6 ............52 Business costs of crime and violence..................... 4.6 ............71 Organized crime ..................................................... 5.6 ............42 Reliability of police services .................................... 6.3 ..............4 Ethical behavior of firms ......................................... 4.5 ............32 Strength of auditing and reporting standards ......... 5.2 ............36 Efficacy of corporate boards .................................. 5.2 ............40 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests ......... 4.4 ............42 Strength of investor protection, 0–10 (best)* .......... 5.8 ............55 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 Quality of overall infrastructure ............................... 4.6 ............48 Quality of roads ...................................................... 4.9 ............35 Quality of railroad infrastructure .............................. 2.4 ............79 Quality of port infrastructure ................................... 4.9 ............35 Quality of air transport infrastructure....................... 5.2 ............36 Available airline seat km/week, millions* ............. 619.0 ............38 Quality of electricity supply ..................................... 5.5 ............46 Mobile telephone subscriptions/100 pop.* ......... 133.3 ............40 Fixed-telephone lines/100 pop.* ........................... 19.2 ............57 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 Government budget balance, % GDP*................. –1.4 ............38 Gross national savings, % GDP* .......................... 20.3 ............70 Inflation, annual % change* .................................... 4.4 ............90 General government debt, % GDP* ..................... 13.9 ............10 Country credit rating, 0–100 (best)* ...................... 78.5 ............22 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 Malaria cases/100,000 pop.* ................................ S.L. ...........n/a Business impact of malaria ............................. N/Appl. ...........n/a Tuberculosis cases/100,000 pop.* ....................... 16.0 ............35 Business impact of tuberculosis ............................. 6.6 ............19 HIV prevalence, % adult pop.* ............................... 0.3 ............63 Business impact of HIV/AIDS ................................. 6.0 ............47 Infant mortality, deaths/1,000 live births* ................ 7.1 ............46 Life expectancy, years*......................................... 79.8 ............32 Quality of primary education ................................... 3.0 ..........108 Primary education enrollment, net %* .................. 92.0 ............84 5.01 5.02 5.03 5.04 5.05 5.06 5.07 5.08 Secondary education enrollment, gross %* .......... 89.0 ............72 Tertiary education enrollment, gross %*................ 74.4 ............19 Quality of the education system ............................. 3.4 ............86 Quality of math and science education .................. 3.3 ..........107 Quality of management schools ............................. 5.3 ............21 Internet access in schools ...................................... 4.8 ............49 Availability of specialized training services .............. 4.7 ............36 Extent of staff training ............................................ 4.1 ............52 2nd pillar: Infrastructure 6.06 6.07 6.08 6.09 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 No. procedures to start a business* .......................... 7 ............76 No. days to start a business* ................................. 5.5 ............24 Agricultural policy costs.......................................... 4.6 ............19 Prevalence of non-tariff barriers .............................. 4.9 ............14 Trade tariffs, % duty* .............................................. 4.6 ............65 Prevalence of foreign ownership............................. 5.4 ............16 Business impact of rules on FDI ............................. 5.2 ............24 Burden of customs procedures .............................. 4.9 ............29 Imports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.6 ............97 Degree of customer orientation .............................. 4.4 ............82 Buyer sophistication ............................................... 4.0 ............28 7.01 7.02 7.03 7.04 7.05 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.10 Cooperation in labor-employer relations ................. 4.5 ............55 Flexibility of wage determination ............................. 5.8 ............12 Hiring and firing practices ....................................... 3.3 ..........110 Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* .................... 27.4 ..........117 Effect of taxation on incentives to work .................. 4.6 ............19 Pay and productivity............................................... 4.2 ............54 Reliance on professional management ................... 4.6 ............42 Country capacity to retain talent............................. 4.8 ............16 Country capacity to attract talent ........................... 4.2 ............22 Women in labor force, ratio to men* ..................... 0.69 ............98 8.01 8.02 8.03 8.04 8.05 8.06 8.07 8.08 Availability of financial services ............................... 5.5 ............21 Affordability of financial services ............................. 4.9 ............41 Financing through local equity market .................... 4.5 ............24 Ease of access to loans ......................................... 3.7 ............20 Venture capital availability ....................................... 3.3 ............32 Soundness of banks .............................................. 6.3 ..............9 Regulation of securities exchanges ........................ 5.4 ............19 Legal rights index, 0–12 (best)* ................................. 4 ............80 9.01 9.02 9.03 9.04 9.05 9.06 9.07 Availability of latest technologies ............................ 5.6 ............33 Firm-level technology absorption ............................ 5.2 ............38 FDI and technology transfer ................................... 5.2 ............14 Individuals using Internet, %* ............................... 72.4 ............36 Fixed-broadband Internet subscriptions/100 pop.* 14.1 ............56 Int’l Internet bandwidth, kb/s per user* ................ 73.1 ............39 Mobile-broadband subscriptions/100 pop.* ......... 50.5 ............55 10.01 10.02 10.03 10.04 Domestic market size index, 1–7 (best)*................. 4.4 ............41 Foreign market size index, 1–7 (best)* .................... 5.1 ............49 GDP (PPP$ billions)* .......................................... 409.3 ............42 Exports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.7 ............85 11.01 11.02 11.03 11.04 11.05 11.06 11.07 11.08 11.09 Local supplier quantity ........................................... 4.4 ............80 Local supplier quality.............................................. 4.7 ............43 State of cluster development.................................. 3.7 ............72 Nature of competitive advantage ............................ 3.3 ............82 Value chain breadth................................................ 3.9 ............58 Control of international distribution ......................... 4.1 ............39 Production process sophistication.......................... 4.4 ............40 Extent of marketing ................................................ 4.8 ............30 Willingness to delegate authority ............................ 3.7 ............71 12.01 12.02 12.03 12.04 12.05 12.06 12.07 Capacity for innovation........................................... 3.8 ............85 Quality of scientific research institutions ................. 4.1 ............48 Company spending on R&D................................... 3.0 ............92 University-industry collaboration in R&D ................. 4.2 ............39 Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products ...... 3.1 ............89 Availability of scientists and engineers .................... 4.6 ............32 PCT patents, applications/million pop.* .................. 7.1 ............43 7th pillar: Labor market efficiency 8th pillar: Financial market development 3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment 4th pillar: Health and primary education 5th pillar: Higher education and training 6th pillar: Goods market efficiency 6.01 6.02 6.03 6.04 6.05 Intensity of local competition .................................. 5.6 ............22 Extent of market dominance .................................. 2.9 ..........129 Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy ..................... 4.4 ............29 Effect of taxation on incentives to invest................. 3.7 ............64 Total tax rate, % profits* ....................................... 27.9 ............30 9th pillar: Technological readiness 10th pillar: Market size 11th pillar: Business sophistication 12th pillar: Innovation Notes: Values are on a 1-to-7 scale unless otherwise annotated with an asterisk (*). For further details and explanation, please refer to the section “How to Read the Country/Economy Profiles” on page 89. © 2015 World Economic Forum The Global Competitiveness Report 2015–2016 | 139