9 de julio de 2015 www.monex.com.mx Preliminares @monexanalisis Reportes al 1T15 Elaborado por: Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil 60% 50% Crecimiento en Ebitda 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% ALSEA IENOVA ICH MFRISCO OHLMEX SIMEC ALPEK ALFA BIMBO GAP ASUR GRUMA OMA GCARSO LIVEPOL PE&OLES ELEKTRA CEMEX PINFRA ICA MEGA BOLSA AUTLAN GMEXICO SORIANA LALA WALMEX CHDRAUI MEXCHEM KIMBER AMX COMERCI FEMSA AC TLEVISA KOF LAB AZTECA -30% Crecimiento Ebitda Mediana ( 14.1% ) 1 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario Mercado Accionario La mediana de cremiento en Ventas se espera del 10.1%, mientras que el crecimiento del total de la muestra se ubica en 10.9%. 50% Crecimiento en Ventas 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% ALSEA MEXCHEM MFRISCO PINFRA GAP BOLSA ALFA ASUR OMA IENOVA BIMBO CEMEX OHLMEX MEGA GMEXICO LIVEPOL GCARSO ICA AMX WALMEX GRUMA PE&OLES FEMSA LALA ICH KIMBER CHDRAUI ELEKTRA ALPEK SORIANA AC TLEVISA COMERCI SIMEC LAB AUTLAN AZTECA KOF -20% Crecimiento en Ventas 60% Mediana ( 10.1% ) Crecimiento en Ebitda 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% ALSEA IENOVA ICH MFRISCO OHLMEX SIMEC ALPEK ALFA BIMBO GAP ASUR GRUMA OMA GCARSO LIVEPOL PE&OLES ELEKTRA CEMEX PINFRA ICA MEGA BOLSA AUTLAN GMEXICO SORIANA LALA WALMEX CHDRAUI MEXCHEM KIMBER AMX COMERCI FEMSA AC TLEVISA KOF LAB AZTECA La mediana de cremiento en Ebitda se espera del 14.1%, mientras que el total de la muestra se ubica en 7.4% Crecimiento Ebitda Mediana ( 14.1% ) MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario 2 Mercado Accionario Reportes Preliminares al 1T15 Ventas Emisora AC Tipo Fecha Est. Reporte C 15-jul Ebitda 15,958 16,197 2t15e vs. 2t14 1.5% 2t14 2t15e 3,773 3,575 2t14 2t15e Margen Operativo Utilidad Neta 2t15e vs. 2t14 -5.3% 1,935 1,782 2t15e vs. 2t14 -7.9% 2t14 2t15e 2t14 2t15e Margen EBITDA 2t14 2t15e 19.5% 19.5% 23.6% 22.1% 12.6% ALFA M 21-jul 52,408 65,229 24.5% 6,626 8,234 24.3% 1,920 1,185 -38.3% 8.3% 8.2% 12.6% ALPEK M 21-jul 20,981 21,370 1.9% 1,637 2,044 24.9% 520 421 -19.0% 5.6% 6.9% 7.8% 9.6% ALSEA M 22-jul 5,203 7,729 48.5% 618 958 55.0% 88 237 169.0% 5.9% 6.9% 11.9% 12.4% AMX M 16-jul 202,635 223,257 10.2% 66,631 68,672 3.1% 18,833 9,838 -47.8% 19.4% 16.3% 32.9% 30.8% ASUR C 1,341 1,651 23.2% 874 1,076 23.1% 555 668 20.4% 56.8% 56.8% 65.2% 65.1% AUTLAN M 1,144 1,068 -6.7% 163 180 10.3% 32 -11 NS 7.3% 9.4% 14.2% 16.8% AZTECA C BIMBO C BOLSA 3,253 2,977 -8.5% 801 611 -23.8% 276 65 -76.4% 19.2% 19.2% 24.6% 20.5% 44,941 52,394 16.6% 4,651 5,742 23.5% 1,612 1,644 2.0% 7.3% 6.7% 10.3% 11.0% C 506 630 24.6% 255 282 10.4% 184 184 0.2% 47.7% 47.7% 50.4% 44.7% CEMEX M 53,969 61,890 14.7% 10,385 11,959 15.2% 987 630 -36.2% 12.5% 12.3% 19.2% 19.3% CHDRAUI C 28-jul 17,200 17,855 3.8% 1,165 1,242 6.6% 441 488 10.7% 5.0% 5.0% 6.8% 7.0% COMERCI T 22-jul 12,455 12,513 0.5% 1,075 1,104 2.7% 565 559 -1.0% 6.4% 6.4% 8.6% 8.8% ELEKTRA T 18,265 18,825 3.1% 1,839 2,190 19.1% -1,114 1,920 NS 6.3% 6.3% 10.1% 11.6% FEMSA M 70,956 75,545 6.5% 11,285 11,331 0.4% 3,018 2,915 -3.4% 11.2% 11.0% 15.9% 15.0% GAP C 1,411 1,762 24.9% 911 1,123 23.3% 431 631 46.3% 48.9% 48.9% 64.5% 63.7% GCARSO T 19,340 21,764 12.5% 2,347 2,861 21.9% 1,275 1,502 17.8% 9.9% 9.9% 12.1% 13.1% GMEXICO M 30,668 34,740 13.3% 13,231 14,546 9.9% 7,257 6,353 -12.5% 34.6% 34.3% 43.1% 41.9% 12,339 13,534 9.7% 1,729 2,126 23.0% 1,135 987 -13.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0% 15.7% 9,063 10,073 11.1% 1,547 1,761 13.9% -331 -753 NS 12.8% 12.9% 17.1% 17.5% 7,390 7,850 6.2% 712 1,038 45.9% 365 377 3.2% 5.7% 5.8% 9.6% 13.2% 21-jul 23-jul GRUMA C ICA M ICH M IENOVA C 28-jul 2,416 2,873 18.9% 732 1,085 48.1% 488 588 20.5% 22.4% 22.4% 30.3% 37.7% KIMBER C 23-jul 7,282 7,622 4.7% 1,879 1,960 4.3% 925 897 -3.1% 20.2% 20.2% 25.8% 25.7% KOF M 22-jul 41,433 36,865 -11.0% 8,242 7,522 -8.7% 2,679 2,556 -4.6% 13.9% 15.0% 19.9% 20.4% LAB C 23-jul 2,900 2,784 -4.0% 613 558 -9.1% 308 317 2.8% 20.3% 20.3% 21.2% 20.0% LALA C 10,973 11,681 6.5% 1,339 1,461 9.1% 832 835 0.3% 9.9% 9.9% 12.2% 12.5% LIVEPOL T 19,626 22,146 12.8% 2,922 3,560 21.8% 1,741 2,122 21.9% 12.5% 12.5% 14.9% 16.1% MEGA C 2,791 3,183 14.1% 1,241 1,371 10.5% 579 687 18.6% 29.1% 29.1% 44.5% 43.1% 18,916 25,968 37.3% 3,337 3,509 5.1% 680 438 -35.6% 10.8% 6.2% 17.6% 13.5% 28-jul 27-jul MEXCHEM M MFRISCO M 2,897 3,778 30.4% 1,107 1,445 30.6% 188 -130 NS 11.0% 18.8% 38.2% 38.3% OHLMEX M 22-jul 918 1,053 14.7% 562 725 29.0% 0 0 NS 0.0% 0.0% 61.2% 68.9% OMA M 22-jul 896 1,078 20.3% 457 561 22.7% 214 271 26.5% 40.4% 41.6% 51.0% 52.0% PE&OLES M 28-jul 15,477 16,570 7.1% 3,346 4,018 20.1% 388 1,153 197.1% 11.7% 13.0% 21.6% 24.2% PINFRA T 1,451 1,851 27.6% 967 1,106 14.3% 603 599 -0.7% 61.4% 61.4% 66.7% 59.7% SIMEC M 28-jul 6,622 6,396 -3.4% 582 737 26.6% 396 384 -2.8% 5.0% 7.8% 8.8% 11.5% SORIANA C 24-jul 24,895 25,333 1.8% 1,717 1,880 9.5% 794 941 18.6% 4.8% 4.8% 6.9% 7.4% TLEVISA C 06-jul 19,344 19,609 1.4% 7,573 7,004 -7.5% 2,212 1,412 -36.1% 25.2% 25.2% 39.1% 35.7% WALMEX M 21-jul Mediana IPC Total de la muestra 104,123 114,467 9,646 10,505 7,093 910,441 972,109 171,284 178,518 183,634 191,659 8.9% 14.1% 7.2% 7.4% 10,418 824,688 884,385 9.9% 10.1% 10.4% 9.9% 60,508 63,429 49,088 51,784 -31.9% -0.7% -18.9% -18.4% 7.0% 11.4% 13.8% 13.4% 7.0% 12.4% 12.9% 12.7% 9.3% 18.4% 20.8% 20.2% 9.2% 18.4% 20.2% 19.7% Grupos Financieros Tipo Fecha Emisora Est. Reporte GENTERA C GFINBUR C GFNORTE C GFREGIO C SANMEX C 23-jul Ingresos por Intereses 2t15e vs. 2t14 2t15e 2t14 3,515 3,897 10.9% 6,440 7,192 14,669 992 14,345 39,961 Fibras Emisora FIBRAMQ M FUNO M TERRA M 27-jul 23-jul 4,627 3,952 2t15e 2t14 2t15e 9.2% 10.1% 26.1% 25.0% -14.6% 5.1% 3.9% 20.3% 15.6% 7.2% 11,248 11,950 6.2% 3,795 4,273 12.6% 1.4% 1.5% 21.8% 13.6% 18.8% 927 1,036 11.8% 344 426 23.7% 1.5% 1.6% 19.1% 19.4% 15,306 6.7% 9,262 10,589 14.3% 3,688 3,668 -0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 13.8% 13.4% 11.1% 2.1% 1.6% 20.3% 15.6% 43,304 8.4% 11.8% 29,449 32,188 498 572 661 15.6% 486 547 1,982 2,468 24.5% 1,717 458 558 21.8% 404 1t15e 22.5% 13,109 13,047 Utilidad Neta Margen NOI 304 358 12.6% 288 333 2,122 23.6% 933 479 18.4% 234 1t14 1t15e 3,522 Cifras Nominales en Millones de MXN$ C: Estimados de Consenso; T: Estimados por tendencia; M: Estimados Monex; P: Resultados Preliminares; R: Reportó. Fuente: Monex con base en Thomson Reuters, Economática y Bloomberg 20.7% 1,759 1t14 1t15e Margen FFO 1t14 1t15e 76.8% 74.9% 74.9% 71.9% 15.5% 85.0% 82.8% 50.4% 50.4% 1,294 38.7% 86.6% 86.0% 47.1% 52.4% 328 40.2% 88.2% 85.8% 51.1% 58.9% 28.3% 85.8% 84.3% 50.8% 55.6% 31.5% 85.4% 84.1% 51.5% 55.3% 19.1% 2,919 -0.5% 1t15e vs. 1t14 17.9% 22.4% 4,186 9.3% Ingreso Neto Operativo (NOI) 1t15e vs. 1t14 1t15e 1t14 311 373 19.8% 405 3,417 1.2% 2t14 1,178 Mediana Total Fibras 727 15,731 1t15e vs. 1t14 22.9% 1t14 2t15e 655 ROE 4,760 Ingresos Totales Tipo Fecha Est. Reporte M 27-jul 2t14 ROA 2t15e vs. 2t14 11.1% 4,704 10.9% Total Grupos Financieros Utilidad Neta 11.7% Mediana DANHOS Margen Financiero 2t15e vs. 2t14 2t15e 2t14 3,309 3,853 16.4% 2,314 MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario 3 Mercado Accionario Directorio Dirección de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil Carlos A. González Tabares Director de Análisis y Estrategia Bursátil T. 5231-4521 crgonzalez@monex.com.mx Daniela Ruíz Zárate Analista Económico T. 5231-0200 Ext. 0019 daruiz@monex.com.mx Fernando E. Bolaños S. Analista Bursátil / Industrial, Minero y Petroquímico T. 5230-0200 Ext. 0720 fbolanos@monex.com.mx J. Roberto Solano Pérez Analista Bursátil / Construcción, Vivienda y Fibras T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451 jrsolano@monex.com.mx Verónica Uribe Boyzo Analista Bursátil / Alimentos y Bebidas T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4782 veuribe@monex.com.mx Giselle N. Mojica Plascencia Analista Bursátil T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4451 gmojica@monex.com.mx Laura Villanueva Ramírez Analista Bursátil T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4768 lvramirez@monex.com.mx Stephany Ramírez Rojas Analista Deuda Corporativa T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4262 sramirezro@monex.com.mx J. Francisco Caudillo Lira Analista Técnico Sr. T. 5231-0016 jcaudillo@monex.com.mx Astianax Cuanalo Dorantes Analista Sr. de Sistemas de Información T. 5230-0200 Ext. 4790 ascuanalo@monex.com.mx MONEX Grupo Financiero / Mercado Accionario 4 Mercado Accionario Disclaimer MONEX Grupo Financiero / Nota de Empresa 5