Monitoring Sea Level Rise in Panama ENVR 451: Research in Panama Final Internship Report Submitted to Professors Rafael Samudio and Roberto Ibanez April 27, 2011 Associated organisation Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Supervisor Dr. Rachel Collin Address: MRC 0580-08 Unit 9100 Box 0948 DPO AA 34002-9998 USA Telephone: +507 212-8766 FAX: +507 212-8790 E-mail: CollinR@si.edu Acknowledgements I appreciated the help from my supervisor Rachel Collin and from Sergio Dos Santos who supported me throughout this project, answered my numerous questions and attended to my problems in the data analysis process. I wish to thank professors Rafael Samudio and Roberto Ibanez and Kecia Kerr for their feedback. A special thank you goes to Tanya Tran and Olivier Pahud for sharing their statistical and computing expertise. Thank you to McGill University and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute for giving me the opportunity to undertake this project. Time commitment Period: January 2011 – April 2011 Total number of hours allotted to research and analysis: 160 Equivalent number of work days: 20 2 Table of Contents Index of Tables and Figures ______________________________________________________________________ 4 Executive Summary – English ____________________________________________________________________ 5 Executive Summary – Spanish ____________________________________________________________________ 6 1. Host Institution Information ___________________________________________________________________ 7 2. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________________________ 8 2.1. Justification ___________________________________________________________________________ 8 2.2. Tide Gauges ___________________________________________________________________________ 8 2.3. Study Sites _____________________________________________________________________________ 9 3. Objectives ______________________________________________________________________________________ 10 4. Hypothesis _____________________________________________________________________________________ 10 5. Method _________________________________________________________________________________________ 10 5.1. Data set selection and acquiring of data ___________________________________________ 10 5.2. Formatting of the data ______________________________________________________________ 11 5.2.1. STRI Physical Monitoring Stations _______________________________________ 11 5.2.2. JASL & PSMSL _____________________________________________________________ 11 5.3. Analysis ______________________________________________________________________________ 11 5.3.1. Relative Monthly Average Sea Level _____________________________________ 11 5.3.2. Extreme events ____________________________________________________________ 12 5.4. Ethics _________________________________________________________________________________ 12 6. Results _________________________________________________________________________________________ 12 7. Discussion ______________________________________________________________________________________ 17 7.1. Recommendations for further analysis ____________________________________________ 18 8. Conclusion _____________________________________________________________________________________ 19 9. Bibliography ___________________________________________________________________________________ 20 10. Annexes _______________________________________________________________________________________ 21 Annex 1: Tide gauge platform in Bocas del Toro ______________________________________ 21 Annex 2: Example of tide gauge mechanism ___________________________________________ 22 Annex 3: Aquatrak sensor _______________________________________________________________ 22 Annex 4: RLR diagram for Cristobal ____________________________________________________ 22 3 Index of tables and figures Table 1: Dataset information; sea level trend, standard error and P-value _________________ 16 Table 2: Extreme tide trend, standard error and P-value ____________________________________ 17 Figure 1: Map showing location of monitoring stations chosen for this study _______________ 9 Figure 2: Relative monthly average sea level for the Atlantic Ocean ________________________ 13 Figure 3a: Relative monthly average sea level for the Pacific Ocean _________________________ 14 Figure 3b: Relative monthly average sea level for the Pacific Ocean (continued) __________ 15 Figure 4: Relative monthly extreme tides ______________________________________________________ 17 4 Executive Summary Monitoring Sea Level Change in Panama Author: Claudia Atomei Host Institution: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, P.O. Box 0843-03092, Roosvelt Ave., Tupper Building – 401, Balboa, Ancón, Panamá, República de Panamá. Sea level change is a source of increasing concern for environmental scientists everywhere. Numerous studies suggest that in most parts of the world, sea levels are rising and there are doing so at increasingly rapid rates. The consequences of sea level rise are quite extensive, starting with changes in the morphology of coastal environments which in turn affect the resident plant and animal communities and continuing with impacts on human populations due to increased flooding, erosion and submersion of the coastal land. In view of these outcomes, it is of foremost importance to try and understand the mechanisms driving sea level change by monitoring the environment and analysing the patterns of change to allow for the development of effective mitigation strategies. The goal of the present study is to analyse sea level measurements taken by tide gauges at six different stations along both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Panama to determine the trends of sea level change at those specific locations. Datasets from 3 sources were acquired for the analysis: data from Bocas del Toro and Colon were obtained from the STRI Physical Monitoring Program; data from Cristobal, Balboa, Naos and Puerto Armuelles were taken from the databases of JASL and PSMSL. The regression analysis performed on the datasets showed an increase in sea levels for all the stations on the Atlantic coast, an increase for two stations out of the three Pacific coast stations, with the last station showing a decrease in sea levels. To test for a change in the magnitude of extreme events, the highest recorded value from each month was taken from the Bocas and Galeta datasets. The analysis yielded a positive trend for both stations. The results from this analysis for the Atlantic coast seem to follow the hypothesized trends. On the Pacific coast, the dataset for Puerto Armuelles from JASL between the years 1983 and 2001 is the only one that matches with the conclusions given in the Fourth Assessment Report. The shorter datasets show a higher acceleration in sea level rise than the longer datasets and could hint towards acceleration in sea level rise rates in the past 10 years at these stations. Uncertainty due to the measurement method is to be taken into account. Suggested research for further analysis include working out a common reference point for the tide gauge measurements to allow the merging of datasets from the same station and the computing of a trend for each of the two oceans as well as a total trend for Panama. Comparisons with measurements of tides, wind, rain and of temperature recorded at the same location would allow to understand how much of sea level change can be explained by atmospheric events and how much can be attributed to a thermal expansion and changes in land ice. A more extensive look at extreme events could lead into discussions about climate change. 5 Resumen Ejecutivo Seguimiento de la elevación del mar en Panamá Autor: Claudia Atomei Institución hospedante: Instituto Smithsonian de Investigaciones Tropicales, Apartado postal 0843-03092, Ave. Roosevelt, Edificio Tupper -. 401, Balboa, Ancón, Panamá, República de Panamá. El cambio del nivel del mar es una fuente de creciente preocupación para los científicos del medio ambiente en todas partes. Numerosos estudios sugieren que en la mayor parte del mundo, los niveles del mar están subiendo y lo hacen a ritmo cada vez más rápido. Las consecuencias de la subida del nivel del mar son muy amplias, a partir de los cambios en la morfología de los ambientes costeros que a su vez afectan a las plantas y animales residentes y continuando con los impactos sobre las poblaciones humanas debido al aumento de las inundaciones, la erosión y la sumersión de las tierras costeras. En vista de estos resultados, es de la mayor importancia de tratar de comprender los mecanismos que inducen el cambio del nivel del mar por el seguimiento del medio ambiente y el análisis de los patrones de cambio para permitir el desarrollo de estrategias eficaces de mitigación. El objetivo del presente estudio es analizar las mediciones del nivel del mar tomadas por los mareógrafos en seis estaciones diferentes a lo largo de ambas costas del Atlántico y del Pacífico de Panamá para determinar las tendencias del cambio del nivel del mar en esos lugares específicos. Conjuntos de datos fueron adquiridas de 3 fuentes para el análisis: los datos de Bocas del Toro y Colón se obtuvieron del Programa de Monitoreo de STRI física, los datos de Cristóbal, Balboa, Naos y Puerto Armuelles se tomaron de las bases de datos de JASL y PSMSL. El análisis de regresión realizado sobre los conjuntos de datos mostraron un aumento del nivel del mar para todas las estaciones en la costa del Atlántico, un aumento en dos estaciones sobre las tres estaciones de la costa del Pacífico, con la última estación que muestra una disminución del nivel del mar. Para probar si un cambio en la magnitud de los fenómenos extremos ocurre, el valor más alto de cada mes se tomó de los conjuntos de datos de Bocas y Galeta. El análisis arrojó una tendencia positiva para ambas estaciones. Los resultados de este análisis para la costa del Atlántico parecen seguir las tendencias de la hipótesis. En la costa del Pacífico, el conjunto de datos para Puerto Armuelles de JASL entre los años 1983 y 2001 es el único que coincide con las conclusiones que figuran en el Cuarto Informe de Evaluación de IPCC. Los conjuntos de datos más cortos muestran una mayor aceleración en la subida del nivel del mar que los conjuntos de datos más largos y podría indicar la aceleración del ritmo de aumento del nivel del mar en los últimos 10 años en estas estaciones. La incertidumbre por el método de medición debe ser tomada en cuenta. Investigaciones adicionales pueden incluir la elaboración de un punto de referencia común para las mediciones de mareógrafos para permitir la fusión de los conjuntos de datos de la misma estación y la calculación de una tendencia para cada uno de los dos océanos así como una tendencia total por Panamá. Las comparaciones con las mediciones de las mareas, el viento, la lluvia y la temperatura registrados en el mismo lugar permitirían entender la envergadura del cambio del nivel del mar que puede ser explicada por fenómenos atmosféricos y en qué medida se le puede atribuir a la expansión térmica y los cambios en la cubierta de hielo. Una mirada más amplia sobre los eventos extremos podría dar lugar a debates sobre el cambio climático. 6 1. Host Institution Information The Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) was established in Panama since the beginning of the construction of the Canal in the early 1900s. The first research station was set on the Barro Colorado Island which has now become one of the most studied biological reserves of the tropics. Research in diverse domains such as archaeology/anthropology, conservation, ecology and evolution is presently sustained by 38 resident scientists and around 900 visiting scientists from all over the world. Its mission is to “increase understanding of the past, present and future of tropical biodiversity and its relevance to human welfare.” STRI has four main research centers: Barro Colorado Island, Galeta Marine Laboratory, Punta Culebra and Bocas Del Toro Research Center on Isla Colon. Activities undertaken by the institution include: research programs; academic programs (pre-graduate, graduate and postgraduate students); internships; field courses; conservation forum and classes; visitor centers. The supervisor for this project is Dr. Rachel Collin. She is the director of the STRI Bocas Del Toro Research Station since 2002. She studies the evolutionary history of marine gastropods in the Collin Lab on Isla Naos, in Panama City. More specifically, she looks at dispersal strategies, sex changes and their implications for evolutionary life histories of benthic marine invertebrates. 7 2. Introduction “The global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/y”. - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2.1 Justification Sea level change is a source of increasing concern for environmental scientists everywhere. Sea level rise causes changes in the morphology of shorelines, disrupts fragile environments such as wetlands, marshes, beaches and barrier islands through increased erosion and inundation (Vellinga and Leatherman 1989). These changes affect the terrestrial biodiversity of these areas due to the loss of habitat. Human livelihoods are also impacted due to floods and loss of land. It is therefore of crucial importance to understand the variability of sea level. Data from tide gauges is easily acquired and analysed and although it does not provide a precise measure of absolute sea level change as can be obtained from satellite altimetry, benefits can be derived from the analysis of data from individual stations. The results obtained at a small scale can be further integrated into larger scale studies, at mega-regional levels to gain better understanding of the nature of sea level change (Dias and Taborda 1992) with the purpose of developing better mitigation methods. 2.2 Tide Gauges Tide gauges are installations that measure relative sea level at a specific point along the shoreline. They are usually secured on piers or on platforms a few meters off shore (Annex 1). Their mechanism can vary with the station but most commonly, they are either made up of a well containing a floating device tied to a wire and an electronic device that 8 records the length of the string or they use a sensor (Annex 3) that sends a pulse in the direction of the water, within a PVC pipe, and records the time it takes for the signal to come back up (Annex 2). The latter is the modern standard. Depending on the station, measurements are taken with a frequency of 15 minutes or one hour. To be able to use the measurements made by tide gauges, benchmarks or reference points need to be set up. Every tide gauge has a system of benchmarks which allows for periodic surveys of the surrounding environment. This is necessary for insuring that the tide gauge is stable with respect to the land, for reasons of accuracy, and to provide information for the calculation of mean sea level (EPA 2009). An example of diagram showing the reference point system for the tide gauge in Cristobal, on the Atlantic coast, can be seen in Annex 4. 2.3. Study Sites Three monitoring stations were chosen on the coast of each ocean. They are not evenly distributed because most Panamanian stations are situated close to the Panama Canal out of the necessity of monitoring the physical environment surrounding it. Fig. 1 - Map showing location of monitoring stations chosen for this study 9 3. Objectives The objectives of this internship were to organise and analyse sea level data from STRI monitoring stations for the purpose of this study and for future use by scientists and to look at trends of sea level change around Panama and write a short scientific paper describing the results of the analysis. 4. Hypothesis Based on past studies of sea level change such as the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, it was hypothesised that an increase in sea level and in height of high tides (extremes) will be observed from data collected by tide gauges on the Atlantic coast of Panama while a decrease will be observed on the Pacific coast. 5. Method 5.1. Data set selection and acquiring of data The first step was to research what organisations freely provide tide gauge data recorded around Panama, especially from the Pacific coast. These would be used to complement the data coming from the two STRI physical monitoring stations on the Atlantic coast in Bocas del Toro and in Colon that were already provided to me along with its metadata by my supervisor and Sergio Dos Santos in raw data format. The raw data as well as the metadata from the other four selected sited was downloaded from two other sources, the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) and Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). An index of the data was created to keep track of the different datasets and of the related metadata. 10 5.2. Formatting of the data All datasets were imported into Microsoft Excel, scanned and cleaned of outliers and faulty data points as described in the metadata for each of the sets. Further formatting varies with source of dataset. 5.2.1. STRI Physical Monitoring Stations The raw data recorded by the sensors needed to be formatted in such a way to give a measure of average sea level. Using schematics of the tide gauge mechanisms, the formulas (2.3252 - wdist) x 100 and (2.2672 - wdist) x 100, where wdist is the value recorded by the sensor, were determined for the Bocas and Galeta datasets respectively and were used for obtaining the average sea level in cm from the original data. The data was then converted to units of mm. The data was rearranged to allow for calculation of monthly averages. Where there were multiple, non overlapping datasets available for one station, they were combined to create a timeline. Months with 7 or more days worth of data missing were flagged to be later excluded from the analysis. This measure was taken to follow the formatting of the JASL data and to allow for the standardization of datasets. 5.2.2. JASL & PSMSL Where there were multiple, non overlapping datasets available for one station, they were combined to create a timeline. 5.3. Analysis 5.3.1. Relative Monthly Average Sea Level Each dataset was imported into JMP8 where linear and non-linear regression plots were created. The plot that gave the most significant trend for each dataset was kept. The 11 slope of the linear regression was recorded as well as the p-value for each plot. Standard error was calculated in Microsoft Excel. 5.3.2. Extreme events To test for a change in frequency of extreme events, the highest recorded value from each month was taken from the Bocas and Galeta datasets. A regression analysis was performed on these 2 new datasets. The slope of the trend, its standard error and the p-value were recorded. 5.4. Ethics This project was carried out following the McGill University Code of Ethics. 6. Results Out of the twelve datasets analysed, three did not yield statistically significant results (P>0.05) (Table 1). All of these three datasets come from the same station on the Pacific coast of Panama, Puerto Armuelles. All stations on the Atlantic coast showed increasing trends in sea levels (Fig. 2). Most stations on the Pacific coast showed increasing trends in sea levels except for Puerto Armuelles which shows a decreasing trend (Fig 3a and 3b.). The analysis of magnitude of extreme events yielded increasing trends at both STRI stations (Fig. 4) and can be considered statistically significant (Table 2). 12 a. 13 25 37 49 61 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 901 961 1021 1081 1141 1201 1 b. Cummulative months - January 2005 to December 2010 c. 1 Cummulative months - January 1907 to December 2010 d. 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 Cummulative months - January 1909 to December 1980 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 Cummulative months - January 2002 to December 2010 Fig. 2 - Relative monthly average sea level (mm). Regression plots for stations on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean. (a) BocasSTRI2005-2010, (b) CristobalJASL1907-2010, (c) CristobalPSMSL1909-1980, (d) GaletaSTRI2002-2010. Each gridline represents a 5 year span. 13 a. 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 901 961 1021 1081 1141 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 601 661 721 781 841 901 961 1021 1081 1141 1201 b. Cummulative months - January 1908 to December 2003 Cummulative months - January 1907 to December 2010 c. 1 d. 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 Cummulative months - January 1961 to December 1997 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 421 481 541 Cummulative months - January 1949 to December 1995 Fig.3a - Relative monthly average sea level (mm). Regression plots for stations on the coast of the Pacific Ocean. (a) BalboaJASL1907-2010, (b) BalboaPSMSL1908-2003, (c) NaosJASL1961-1997, (d) NaosPSMSL1949-1995. Each gridline represents a 5 year span. 14 e. 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 1 f. Cummulative months - January 1955 to December 1968 g. Cummulative months - January 1983 to December 2001 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 h. Cummulative months - January 1951 to December 1968 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 Cummulative months - January 1983 to December 1998 Fig.3b - Relative monthly average sea level (mm). Regression plots for stations on the coast of the Pacific Ocean. (e) PArmuellesJASL1955-1968, (f) PArmuellesJASL1983-2001, (g) PArmuellesPSMSL1951-1968, (h) PArmuellesPSMSL1983-1998. Each gridline represents a 1 year span. 15 Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean Station Name Dataset source Year Range Total # months # Months with ≥ 7 missing days Sea Level Trend (mm/month) Sea Level Trend (mm/year) Standard Error P-value Bocas STRI 2005-2010 72 16 1.149 13.788 44.696 0.0017 Cristobal JASL 1907-2010 1248 104 0.1322 1.5861 48.516 <0.0001 Cristobal PSMSL 1909-1980 864 0 0.1193 1.4313 41.016 <0.0001 Galeta STRI 2002-2010 108 40 1.1423 13.707 49.228 <0.0001 Balboa JASL 1907-2010 1248 35 0.1291 1.5494 112.7 <0.0001 Balboa PSMSL 1908-2003 1152 8 0.1251 1.5011 111.29 <0.0001 Naos JASL 1961-1997 444 321 0.1648 1.9773 109.23 0.0022 Naos PSMSL 1949-1995 564 273 0.1063 1.2759 99.276 0.0021 Puerto Armuelles JASL 1955-1968 168 19 -0.099 -1.193 58.947 0.3259 Puerto Armuelles JASL 1983-2001 228 3 -0.277 -3.324 88.042 0.0021 Puerto Armuelles PSMSL 1951-1968 216 12 0.0108 0.1294 62.454 0.8764 Puerto Armuelles PSMSL 1983-1998 192 2 -0.214 -2.566 85.304 0.0557 Table 1 - Dataset information; sea level trend (slope of linear regression line), standard error and P-value. 16 a. 1 b. 13 25 37 49 61 Cummulative months - January 2005 to December 2010 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 Cummulative months - Janurary 2002 to December 2010 Fig.4 - Relative monthly extreme tides (mm). Regression plots for STRI stations on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean. (a) BocasSTRI2005-2010, (b) GaletaSTRI2002-2010. Each gridline represents a 1 year span. Station Name Bocas Galeta Extreme tide trend (mm/month) 1.372219 2.476677 Extreme tide trend (mm/year) 16.466628 29.720124 Standard Error P-value 57.7056748 65.2765221 0.0039 <0.0001 Table 2 - Extreme tide trend (slope of regression line for the highest tides for each month), standard error and P-value. 7. Discussion The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that satellite measurements indicate an increase in sea levels for the Atlantic Ocean and a fall in sea levels for the eastern Pacific Ocean. The results from this analysis for the Atlantic coast seem to follow the hypothesized trends. On the Pacific coast, the dataset for Puerto Armuelles from JASL between the years 1983 and 2001 is the only one that matches with the conclusions given in the Fourth Assessment Report. The tests made with the two STRI datasets to examine the trends in the 17 extreme events seem to show an increase in magnitude corresponding to IPCC’s characterisation of the increased intensity of these events as likely. Although the analysis mostly yielded expected results, there are a few sources of error that need to be taken into account. Because of the nature of the measurement system, there are uncertainties introduced in the calculations. These uncertainties come partially from the sensor itself, and from the movement of the tide gauge platforms, which are currently not considered to be the most accurate methods for measuring sea level. Additionally, breaks in installations occur quite often and this causes gaps in datasets. The major source of error in these results is the short length of most datasets. In order to make a confident conclusion about the magnitude of sea level change, datasets of at least 30 years are required for the analysis. While the datasets used for this study ranged between 104 and 6 years, half were shorter than 30 years. The shorter datasets from the STRI monitoring stations show a higher acceleration in sea level rise than the longer datasets. This could indicate that sea level rise rates have actually been accelerating in the past 10 years at these stations but it is impossible to conclude anything about the causes of this acceleration. Further analysis and consideration of other factors involved is required. 7.1. Recommendations for further analysis Due to limitations in time and expertise, only a partial analysis of the datasets was possible. The next step in this study would be to work out a common reference point for the tide gauge measurements to allow the merging of datasets from the same station and the computing of a trend for each of the two oceans as well as a total trend for Panama. This would permit a comparison between the rate of sea level change in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. A number of additional computations can be made from the data to isolate the 18 variability caused by atmospheric changes by subtracting the values of tidal predictions from the values recorded by the tide gauges. The residual value could be compared with measurements of wind, rain and of temperature recorded at the same location to understand how much of sea level change can be explained by atmospheric events such as changes in wind and ocean circulation patterns and how much can be attributed to a thermal expansion and changes in land ice. A more extensive look at extreme events, including all 6 stations could also lead into a discussion about climate change. Finally, the results from the analysis on the tide gauge data could be compared to data obtained by satellite altimetry for the same locations. 8. Conclusion Although it is difficult to set a common reference point for different tide gauge datasets and though tide gauges do not provide the most accurate measurements of sea level, it was possible to distinguish expected trends from analysing data available to the general public. It is important to highlight the value of small scale analysis of environmental change not only because it can supply local biodiversity and developmental studies with information but also because it provides a basis for larger, global scale studies that can help the international decision-making process concerning the mitigation of climate change. 19 9. Bibliography Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; Le Quere, C.; Levitus, S.; Noijiri, Y.; Shum, C.K.; Talley, L.D.; and Unnikrishnan, A., 2007. Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon, S., et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Can be accessed at: <http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter5.pdf> Dias, J.A. and Taborda, R. 1992. Tidal gauge data in deducing secular trends of relative sea level and crustal movements in Portugal. Journal of Coastal Research 8(3): 644-659. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute official website. Last accessed on April 27, 2011. Can be accessed at: < http://www.stri.si.edu/> United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2009. Report on the Environment: Sea Level. Last accessed on April 27, 2011. Can be accessed at: <http://cfpub.epa.gov/eroe/index.cfm?fuseaction=detail.viewMeta&ch=50&lShowI nd=0&subtop=315&lv=list.listByChapter&r=216636> Vellinga, P. and Leatherman, S.P. 1989. Sea Level Rise, Consequences and Policies. Climatic Change 15: 175-189. 20 Annexes Annex 1: Images of the tide gauge platform in Bocas del Toro. 21 Annex 2: Example of tide gauge mechanism Annex 3: Aquatrak sensor Annex 4: Example of RLR (revised local reference) diagram from Cristobal. PBM: permanent benchmark; TGZ: tide gauge zero; MSL: mean sea level. 22