una comparación de los modelos poisson y binomial negativa con

Anuncio
3er Encuentro de Usuarios de Stata en México
!"#$%&'(#)#%*+"$,-$.&/$'&,-.&/$(&*//&"$
0$1*"&'*#.$"-2#3*4#$%&"$/3#3#5$!"$-6-)%*%*&$
,*,7%3*%&$
Noé Becerra Rodríguez
Mayo, 2011
Fortino Vela Peón
'89:;<=>?$
!! ! " # $ % & ' &( & ) " * + , *( * +( - ) .( , * / ' .( & *(
*")+)/*,01'('(+%$*-(-%"*+"%',20'(3(4).50'&)6(
!! &*."0%4#$'6=)0&40*..6")/(
!! *%+:*0*+"%'-6=)0&40*..6")/(
!! /0*50*.%)+6=)0&40*..6")/(
!! ,0*50*.%)+6=)0&40*..6")/(
!! 7)&*-).(/8.(0*'-%.,'.('(.%,2'"%)+*.(92*(.*(40*.*+,'+(
*+(&%:*0*+,*.("'/4).(&%."%4-%+'0%).6(
!! ;)0/'(.*+"%--'(&*(,*/'.('$'+<'&).6(
'8@AB8C$@A$:;D=;EBA$@AFA?@=A?GA$B=H=G;@;$
!! !&/%,*+(,0'>'?'0(")+(($'0%'>-*.(&*4*+&%*+,*.(
")+(2+(0'+5)(0*.,0%+5%&)(&*($'-)0*.(@>%+'0%'.(
")+($'-)0*.(A(3(BC($'-)0*.(*+,*0).C(*,"6D6(
•! Elección binaria.
•! Elección discreta.
•! Elección múltiple.
•! Datos de recuento.
•! Tobit.
•! Censurado.
•! Truncado.
'8@AB8$@A$@;G8C$@A$DA<IA?G8$
!! !92*-( (92*(#*+*(")/)(:;D=;EBA$@AFA?@=A?GA$
2+'( $'0%'>-*( &%."0*,'( @A$ <8?GA8$ 92*( ,)/'(
:;B8DAC$?8$?AJ;9:8C6(
(
!! '8@AB8C$@A$DAJDAC=>?$(8=CC8?6(
!! '8@AB8C$@A$DAJDAC=>?$E=?8H=;B$?AJ;9:;6(
!! 7)&*-).(&*(0*50*.%E+(*F4)+*+"%'-6(
!! G).( /)&*-).( &*( &',).( &*( ")+,*)( CA$
<;D;<GAD=K;?$ F8DLIA$ ?8$ 9A?A?$ I?$ BMH=GA$
CIFAD=8D$ ?;GID;BC( ,)/'+( $'-)0( "*0)( @*+( 2+(
4)0"*+,'?*( +)( &*.40*"%'>-*D( 4'0'( '-52+).(
/%*/>0).( &*( -'( 4)>-'"%E+( 3( .2*-*+( ,)/'0(
4)").($'-)0*.6(
!! H-( )>?*#$)( ")+.%.,*( *+( H8@AB;D$ B;$
@=CGD=EI<=>?$ @A$X 0=$ @;@8$ I?$ <8?NI?G8$ @A$
<;D;<GADMC9<;C( ( ( ( ( *-%5%*+&)( :)0/'.(
:2+"%)+'-*.(92*('.*520*+($'-)0*.(4).%#$).6(
'8@AB8$@A$DAJDAC=>?$(8=CC8?$
!! G'($'0%'>-*(0(G8H;$F8<8C$:;B8DAC6(
!! '8@AB;D$ B;$ @=CGD=EI<=>?$ @A$ 0=$ @;@8$ O$
'.2/%*+&)( 92*( 0$ @;@8$ OPQ$ ORQSQOT$ .%52*( 2+'(
@=CGD=EI<=>?$(8=CC8?C(*.,)(*.C(
! !i y
exp !i
p [Yi = Y \ X ] =
y¡
o bien, el valor esperado de Yi dado X, esto es
E[Yi = Y \ X ]
!! G'( @=CGD=EI<=>?$ (8=CC8?$ :=A?A$ @AGADH=?;@;$
<8HFBAG;HA?GA$ F8D$ CI$ HA@=;$ @,)&).( -'.(
40)>'>%-%&'&*.( 3( /)/*+,).( &*( )0&*+( .24*0%)0(
*.,8+(&*,*0/%+'&).(4)0(-'(/*&%'D6(
!! H.,)( =HF8?A$ B;$ DACGD=<<=>?$ H@IJOD( K( L@IJODC( -'( "2'-(
+)(.%*/40*(.*("2/4-*(*+(-'.('4-%"'"%)+*.(*/410%"'.6(
!! H-(HUG8@8(&*(*.#/'"%E+('(.*52%0(*.(*-(&*(HVW=H;$
:AD8C=H=B=GI@$X'4Y(92*(4)&01'():0*"*0(*.#/'&)0*.(
%+")+.%.,*+,*.(.%(-'(:2+"%E+(&*(40)>'>%-%&'&(+)(*.,'(
>%*+(*.4*"%M"'&'6(
!! N)()>.,'+,*C(.*(42*&*+()>,*+*0(*.#/'&)0*.(
")+.%.,*+,*.( 3( '.%+,E#"'/*+,*( +)0/'-*.( &*(
-'.( ! ( .%( -'( /*&%'( ")+&%"%)+'-( *.,'( >%*+(
*.4*"%M"'&'6(
?
!! O2'+&)( I( &'&)( PBC( PQCRCPS( +)( .%52*( 2+'(
&%.,0%>2"%E+( T)%..)+C( *-( *.#/'&)0( 92*( .*(
)>#*+*( &*( /'F%/%<'0( *-( -)5'0%,/)( &*( -'(
:2+"%E+(&*($*0).%/%-%,2&C(G@!DC(.*(-*(&*+)/%+'(
AC9H;@8D$ @A$ <I;C=$ HVW=H;$ :AD8C=H=B=GI@(
@Z'.D6(
!! O2'+&)(.*(*.#/'(4)0(U7G(.%(+)(.*("2/4-*(*-(
.242*.,)( &*( H@I( JOD( K( L@IJOD( *.( ?A<AC;D=8$
;NICG;D$B8C$ADD8DAC$ACGV?@;D6(
(
!! V+'( 4).%>%-%&'&( *.( ;NICG;D( ")+.%&*0'+&)( 92*(
-'( :;D=;?K;$ AC$ FD8F8D<=8?;B$ ;$ B;$ HA@=;C( *.,)(
*.W( L@IJOD( K( "Q( H@I( JODC( ( &)+&*( "Q( *.( 2+(
4'08/*,0)(&*.")+)"%&)6((
•! Si "2 = 1 equidispersión.
•! Si "2 > 1 se tiene sobredispersión (muy común).
•! Si "2 < 1 infradispersión (poco común).
!! X'?)( *-( .242*.,)( &*( :;D=;?K;$ FD8F8D<=8?;B$ ;$
B;$HA@=;$(*-('?2.,*(&*(-).(*00)0*.(*.,8+&'0((&*(
7L( &'( 4)0( 0*.2-,'&)( '( -).( *00)0*.( *.,8+&'0(
&*(-).(/)&*-).(-%+*'-*.(5*+*0'-%<'&).(@Y7GD6((
'8@AB8$@A$DAJDAC=>?$E=?8H=;B$?AJ;9:;$
!! H-( *+:)92*( U7G( +)( 4*0/%,*( "'-"2-'0(
40)>'>%-%&'&*.(")+&%"%)+'-*.(&*-(#4)(
y
i
e !
p(yi = y \ xi ) =
y¡
" !i
!! Solo se estima
E(Y \ X)
!! Es necesario considerar modelos alternativos.
!! V+'(4).%>%-%&'&(*.(@O'/*0)+(3(Z0%$*&%C(B[\]DW(
(
2
)
V ( yi \ X i ) = 1 + " exp( X i ! )
para algún
2
! >0
! (A)
a ser estimado.
!! Otra es (Cameron y Trivedi, 1986):
(
2
)
V ( yi \ X i ) = 1 + " exp( X i ! ) exp( X i ! )
para algún #2 > 0.
! (B)
1;CA$@A$@;G8C$
50
0
Frecuencia
100
Histograma del número de publicaciones
0
5
10
Núm. artículos
15
20
-CG;@MC9<;$@AC<D=F9:;$@A$B;C$FIEB=<;<=8?AC$
-C9H;<=>?$(8=CC8?$
-C9H;<=>?$'.2Q$[;H=B=;$(8=CC8?$\$[I?<=>?$@A$A?B;<A$.8J$
-C9H;<=>?$'.2Q$[;H]$(8=CC8?Q$B=?T$B8J$<8?$8F<=>?$C<;BAXWRY$
-C9H;<=>?$1=?8H=;B$"AJ;9:;$
-C9H;<=>?$'.2Q$[;H=B=;$1=?8H=;B$"AJ;9:;Q$B=?T$B8J$
"$
"#
!
&'()('*+(,
"%
=>?0*14&(+00(,4@4A+,(6+7B4C157*+27474)?/B+D7D+(,10
!
-
.
#!
617,48 4#"9#$:4(21'3+0)1'0+(,48 4";<!#4
(/01'2134)'()('*+(,
)(+00(,4)'(/
,154/+,(64)'(/
#-
Descargar