IMAFIN The Perception of Spain in the Financial Markets

IMAFIN
The Perception of Spain
in the Financial Markets
#IMAFIN
www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN
2
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Contents
Presentation4
Introduction5
2001-2015. Fifteen years in three differentiated
periods6
1.Definition
6
2.Methodology
7
Key IMAFIN conclusions
8
1.Detailed analysis of the periods covered
by the Index
10
2.Public Economy vs. Private Economy
14
3.Equities and direct foreign investment
in Spain
16
4.Analysis of first quarter of 2016
18
The experts’ analysis
20
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN
3
Presentation
It is paradoxical that as the information society advances, with all its global,
instant and total access to sources, data and opinion-makers, we increasingly
act and make decisions based on perceptions drawn from a host of different
indicators, sometimes without examining them in any great depth or even early
having a very clear understanding of their nature.
This is certainly true of the perception of the development of the Spanish
economy, particularly during the financial and economic crisis. Variables such
the risk premium, investment yield, market trends and other financial terms that
have entered our lexicon have had a decisive influence on the opinion and
perception of individuals and organizations and on the decisions they make
every day.
The aim of this Index of Financial Perception is to provide a reliable,
independent and objective overview of the way Spain is seen on international
financial markets, which will at the same time readily understandable for the
public at large. This perception is not only important because it influences our
own criterion and the way we ourselves perceive how our economy and society
is performing; it is also essential in that it impacts on the decisions taken by
international economic agents regarding critical variables for our society’s
development: the investments they make, the credit they offer and the way in
which they rank Spanish financial assets and securities.
Having a comprehensive overview of this kind –and the ability to monitor its
development over time– will help reinforce the vision of Marca España on
international markets and among Spaniards themselves with transparency,
objectivity and independence.
This is our aim and our ambition. And this is our small contribution to
reinforcing the great brand that is Marca España.
Juan Pedro Moreno
Country Managing Director – Accenture Spain
4
www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
Introduction
Marca España’s primary objective is to improve this country’s image among
its partners – those who visit us, those who buy our products and those who
lend us money.
One of the main tasks of the Marca España Office has been to identify,
collate and use different indices and rankings that reflect the way in which
Spain is perceived abroad and how it compares with other countries. By
analyzing these figures, we can measure its development over time, identify
our relative strengths and weaknesses and propose any improvements that
may be needed.
The most important of these data sets are of course, the economic and
financial indices; they are also the ones that receive most media coverage,
especially at times of crisis, and they are possibly the prime motivators
behind many transcendental decisions.
A range of different economic and financial indices exist and we felt it
would be helpful to collate the most important of these into one composite
index of the financial perception of Spain.
Knowing Accenture’s prestige and its recognized capacity for objective
analysis, we asked the firm to help us build this index of perception of
Spain’s financial image (IMAFIN). Our ambition is that it will become
essential reading for anyone interested in this country, allowing them to
monitor quarterly trends since the beginning of this century.
Carlos Espinosa de los Monteros
High Commissioner for Marca España
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN
5
2001-2015
Fifteen years in three differentiated
periods
1. Definition
The Index of the Perception of Spain on Financial Markets was created at the initiative of Marca España and has
been drawn up with technical support from Accenture Research.
What is it?
What does it measure?
A synthetic combination of six
indicators measuring a series of
observable variables and their
evolution over time.
The perception of Spain on
international financial markets and its
evolution over time.
Public
Economy
www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
The index takes data from monthly
series from January 2001 to the
present and will be updated on a
quarterly basis.
2001
JANUARY
Private
Economy
6
What is the periodicity of the
index?
2. Methodology
Composition
Aggregation of variables
The Index of the Financial Perception
of Spain (IMAFIN) is built from
six indicators. These include two
indicators of the public economy
and four indicators of the private
economy:
For each of the six variables, we have
taken monthly data series starting in
January 2001:
• Public Economy:
1. Risk premium.
2. Spanish creditworthiness and
variations in ratings.
• Private Economy:
3. Stock Recommendations.
4. Stock Volatility of IBEX 35 vs.
EURO STOXX 50.
5. Direct Foreign Investment in
Spain.
• Standardization: each of the six
series has been standardized
on a scale of 0-10, enabling the
sub-indices to be compared
and totaled, for the purposes of
aggregating them in a composite
index.
• Weighting: each of the six variables
was weighted equally.
• Indexation: having aggregated the
series, the values were converted to
numbers in an index with base 100
in January, 2001.
6. Portfolio Investment in Spain.
For these last two variables (Direct
Foreign Investment in Spain and
Portfolio Investment in Spain),
we have calculated the quarterly
moving average, Using the original
data, we have built a new series in
which data for a specific period are
obtained from a three month average
–the month in question, the month
immediately preceding it and the
month immediately after.
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN
7
Key IMAFIN conclusions
120
Index of Financial
Perception of Spain
(IMAFIN) 2001-2015
110
Dec. 2002
108
100
90
80
70
60
50
Period 1. Stability
40
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 0
2010
✓
8
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• The beginning of the global and Spanish financial crisis did not significantly
impact our perception until the second half of 2010, when the index began to fall
sharply, due mainly to a climb in the risk premium to above 100 points and a
drastic fall in the country’s credit rating. Perception began to recover in the last
quarter of 2012, coinciding with a fall in the risk premium following the start of
the bank bail-out.
• From the beginning of the decline in the index in 2010 to the present, the
deterioration in Spain’s perception has been strongly influenced by a worsening in
public-economy variables. Strikingly, throughout the crisis in Spain, financial
markets never significantly lost faith in the Spanish private sector. This is
evidenced by that fact that analysts continued to recommend holding onto IBEX
35 stock and by positive levels of net direct foreign investment throughout the
period.
Apr.
2015
88
Dec.
2015
83
May 2010
75
Jul. 2012
54
Period 2. Decline
in perception
Period 3. Recovery
08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Dec. 15
• Europe and Spain’s membership of the European Union have been decisive factors for
stability in the perception of Spain. Decisions taken at EU level and EU macro policies
have been crucial for the maintenance and recovery of our image. A good example
can be seen in the fall of the risk premium from October 2012, which coincided with
the injection of funds from the first bank bailout deal in September 2012.
• Although still a long way from the record highs, when the index of perception
rose to 100 points, in recent years the upward trend in our image has been very
positive and we are now back to 2009 levels, with the index standing at 88 points
– though this is well below the maximums reached during the years of stability in
the 2000s. This may be due to a review of the classification of Spanish public debt
by the ratings agencies.
• Since May 2015, this recovery in the perception of Spain has slowed, possibly
impacted by the context of political uncertainty, combined with greater global
instability.
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN
9
1. Detailed analysis of the periods covered in the Index
This section provides a detailed analysis of the index, looking at each of the different periods and the context and
circumstances that influenced the evolution of the six indicators.
Period 1. Stability of perception
120
Dec. 2002
108
110
Sep. 2008
Bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers
100
90
Jan. 2002
Introduction
of the euro
Apr. 2010
88
87
Oct. 2008
Coordinated
action by the Fed,
the ECB and
another three
central banks to
lower interest
rates by half a
percentage point
80
70
60
50
40
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Dec. 15
Index of Perception
Global milestones
EU milestones
Note: The index has been created by aggregating six variables of perception of international financial markets.
Source: Accenture Research.
••
••
Period of moderate volatility in the
Index of Perception, lasting more
than 9 years from the beginning of
the series in January 2001 to April
2010, during which the index saw a
variation of +/– 15% (between 85
and 115 points).
This was a result of record highs in
indicators for the private economy.
Specifically, these were due to the
effect of the following variables:
– A drop in net portfolio investment
to –8.3 billion euro, compared to
1.75 billion in January 2001.
– An increase in direct foreign
investment to 8.43 billion euro,
up from 5.78 billion in January
2001.
The highest score during the period,
and indeed in the 15 years of the
series to date, came in December
2002 when it reached 108 points.
– Reduced volatility of the IBEX 35
against the EURO STOXX 50.
••
10 www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
the Index fell to 87 points, due
mainly to the following variables in
the private economy:
The lowest score during the period
was reached in October 2008, when
– An increase in the volatility of
the IBEX 35 against the EURO
STOXX 50.
••
This period ended in April 2010 when
the index rose to 88 points from a
record low of 85 the month before.
Period 2. Decline in perception
120
110
100
Apr. 2011
Greek sovereign
debt downgraded to
the category of junk
bonds
90
80
75
May. 2010
Creation of
the European
Financial
Stability Fund
70
60
54
50
40
Jul. 2012
Statement by Mario Draghi:
“The ECB is ready to do
whatever it takes to preserve
the euro. And believe me, it
will be enough”
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Dec. 15
Index of Perception
Global milestones
EU milestones
Note: The index has been created by aggregating six variables of perception of international financial markets.
Source: Accenture Research.
• Period of sharp decline in the
Perception Index with massive
volatility between April 2010 and
July 2012, when it fell to its lowest
ever value of 54 points.
• The period started with a fall in
the Index of Perception to 75
points in May 2010, from 88
points the month before, ushering
in a time of greater instability and
downward volatility and
eventually dropping to 54 points
in July 2012. This initial decline in
May was mainly due to the
following variables in the public
and private economy:
– A rise in the risk premium to 160
points, as against 32 points in
January, 2001.
– A drop in net portfolio investment
to –12.16 billion euro, compared
to 1.75 billion in January 2001.
– The highest level of volatility of
the IBEX 35 against the EURO
STOXX 50 in the entire 15-year
series.
• In July 2012, the index fell to its
lowest value in this period and in
the entire historical series. This
decline was mainly due to the
following variables related to the
public economy:
– Progressive increase in the risk
premium to 546 points in July
2012.
– Spanish credit rating downgraded
from “Optimum” (AAA) to
“Satisfactory” (BBB–).
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN 11
Period 3. Recovery of perception
120
110
100
Apr.
2015
88
90
Dec.
2015
83
80
71
Dec. 2012
70
60
Mar. 2016
Reduction in
interest rates
to 0% and
Jul. 2013 extension
of the debt
61
purchase
program
Sep. 2012
First pay-out of
Bankia bailout.
50
40
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Dec. 15
Index of Perception
Global milestones
EU milestones
Note: The index has been created by aggregating six variables of perception of international financial markets.
Source: Accenture Research.
• Period of recovery of the Perception
Index, albeit with continued huge
volatility, between July 2012 (which
marked the start of the change in
trend, coinciding with a fall in the
risk premium following the
beginning of the bank bail-out) and
December 2015.
• In the first five months, from July
2012 to December 2012, the Index
of Perception recovered from 54
points to 71 points, driven by the
following variables:
– A fall in the risk premium from
546 points (July 2012) to 395
points (December 2012).
– A reduction in the volatility of the
IBEX 35 against the EURO STOXX
50 from September 2012 on.
12 www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
• However, this recovery stalled from
December 2012 to July 2013, with
the Index dropping from 71 to 61
points. This slow-down was caused
by the following variables:
– A worsening in analyst
recommendations for IBEX 35
stock, averaging “Hold”.
– A fall in portfolio investment
during the first half of 2013.
• Following this slow-down, the Index
of Perception again improved
progressively from July 2013 to April
2015 to 88 points (at 2009 levels),
mainly as a result of the following
variables:
– A fall in the risk premium from 298
points (July 2013) to 110 points
(April 2015).
– Credit ratings of Spanish
sovereign debt upgraded from
“Negative” to “Stable” from
December 2013.
• Finally, the Index saw a renewed
slow-down from May to December
2015, when it averaged 83 points.
This trend can mainly be explained
by the following variables:
– Rise in the risk premium, which
stood at an average of 126 points
between May and December
2015.
– Decline in direct foreign
investment in Spain.
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN 13
2. Public Economy vs. Private Economy
To further enhance the analysis, it may be helpful to examine the Index of
Financial Perception of Spain (IMAFIN), differentiating between indicators
related to the public economy (2 indicators) and those that relate to the private
economy (4 indicators).
1.Risk premium
PUBLIC
Economy
4.Stock
Volatility
of IBEX 35
vs. EURO
STOXX 50
PRIVATE
Economy
2.Spanish
creditworthiness
and variations
in ratings
6.Portfolio
Investment
in Spain
14 www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
3.Stock
recommendations
5.Direct Foreign
Investment in Spain
120
Sep. 2008
Bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers
110
100
Apr. 2011
Greek sovereign
debt downgraded to
the category of junk
bonds
90
80
70
60
Jul. 2012
Statement by Mario Draghi:
“The ECB is ready to do
whatever it takes to preserve
the euro. And believe me, it
will be enough”
50
40
Sep. 2012
First pay-out of
Bankia bailout
30
20
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12
Private economy indicators
Public economy indicators
Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Dec. 15
Global milestones
EU milestones
Source: Accenture Research.
January 2001 - April 2010
July 2012 - December 2015
Better perception of public economy
than private economy indicators:
Public economy indicators recover to
2008-2010 levels, although still below
private economy indicators:
• Public management sub-indexes at
average of 103 points.
• Private management sub-indexes at
average of 91 points.
April 2010 - July 2012
General decline in public economy
indicators, falling below private
economy indicators in July 2010:
• Average 63 points in public
economy indicators (down 6% on
previous period and down 39% on
initial period). Two very different
periods can be identified:
– July 2012 - December 2013:
average 42 points.
• Average 83 points in private
economy indicators (down 2% on
previous period and –9% on initial
period):
– July 2012 - December 2013:
Average 80 points.
– January 2014 - December 2015:
Average 85 points, with greater
stability from June 2015 and
approaching 2004-2005 levels.
– January 2014 - December 2015:
average 78 points.
• Average 67 points in public
economy indicators (down 35% on
previous period).
• Average 85 points in private
economy indicators (down 6.5% on
previous period).
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3. Equities and direct foreign investment in Spain
Stock recommendations
2.0
Buy
1.6
1.2
Outperform
0.8
0.4
Hold
0.0
–0.4
Underperform –0.8
–1.2
Sell
–1.6
–2.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Accenture Research with data from S&P’s Capital IQ.
•General confidence among analysts
in IBEX 35 stock throughout the
15-year series. Standardized
recommendations mostly remained
at Outperform, reflecting optimistic
predictions of Spanish stock
performance.
16 www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
•However, it is important to note that
there were some periods in which
average fell to Hold:
– September 2003 - November
2005.
– January 2013 - December 2014
(in contrast with public economy
variables, which improved during
the period).
Following the last decline between
January 2013 and December 2014,
from January 2015 on, the sentiment
among analysts again improved, and
recommendations returned to
Outperform, remaining very stable
until the end of the series in December
2015.
Direct Foreign Investment in Spain
Million euro (quarterly moving averages)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
–2,000
–4,000
2001
IED
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Log. (IED)
Note: shows the series and its estimated trend, the latter based on a logarithmic function.
Source: Accenture Research with data from Banco de España, Boletín Estadístico.
•Long-term foreign investment
remained stable throughout the time
series at an average of 2.46 billion
euro, although there have been
strong fluctuations in monthly flows
as a result of isolated operations.
•There were two especially significant
stages during which investment was
below average:
– February 2004 - August 2007.
– January 2009 - June 2012.
•More recently, there was a
considerable drop in investment
after April 2015, from 2.93 to 1.37
billion euro in May 2015. From May
2015, foreign investment in Spain
remained at an average of 1.2 billion
euro to the end of the series in
December 2015, without crossing
the two billion euro threshold in any
period.
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN 17
4. Analysis of first quarter of 2016
Perception Index of Spain on Financial Markets: time periods
120
110
Dec. 2002
108
100
Dec.
2015
83
90
80
May 2010
75
70
60
Jul. 2012
54
50
Period 1. Stability
Period 2. Decline
in perception
40
Period 3. Recovery
Jan. 01 Jan. 02 Jan. 03 Jan. 04 Jan. 05 Jan. 06 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15
Index of Perception
Source: Accenture Research.
Breakdown of first
quarter of 2016
Dec. 2015
83
Mar. 2016
80
Jan. 2016
79
Feb. 2016
78
Mar. 16
Conclusions of first quarter of 2016
The slowdown in the Index of Financial
Perception seen in the third period of
the analysis continued in the period
from January to March 2016:
• The period ended in March 2016
with the Index of Perception at 80
points, mainly due to the following
variables:
• After the Index of Perception closed
2015 at 83 points, in the first
quarter of 2016 it fell below 80
points for the first time since
October 2014, standing at an
average of 79 points, 10% below
the average for the same quarter of
the previous year (87 points).
– A slight fall in the risk premium
from 136 points (February 2016)
to 131 points (March 2016).
• During this first quarter, February
was particularly significant, with the
Index falling to its lowest value in
this time period, 78 points, chiefly
as a result of three variables:
– A rise in the risk premium from
121 points (January 2016) to 136
points (February 2016).
– Reduction in volatility of the
IBEX 35 against the EURO STOXX
50 in March.
• Taken together, during this first
quarter public and private economy
indicators performed as follows:
– Average 74 points in public
economy indicators (–7.5% vs.
first quarter of 2015).
– Average 82 points in private
economy indicators (–10% vs.
first quarter of 2015).
– Increased volatility of the IBEX 35
against the EURO STOXX 50
between December 2015 and
February 2016.
– Fall in portfolio investment in
Spain during the first quarter.
Miguel Vergara
Managing Director of Accenture
Strategy
www.marcaespana.es/IMAFIN 19
The experts’ analysis
Perceptions and reality
markets shut off the flow of funds
previously available to the country.
The situation worsened significantly
when something previously
unexpected occurred in several of
the Euro zone countries most
severely affected by the crisis,
including Spain: an abrupt and
indiscriminate drying-up (a “sudden
stop”) of external funding within the
framework of the monetary union, a
“renationalization” of crossborder
capital flows which had previously
moved freely –perhaps, indeed, all
too blithely.
David Vegara
Associate Professor at the
Department of Economics, Finance
and Accounting, ESADE
Former State Secretary for the
Economy and former executive at
the IMF
The effects of the international
financial crisis have been as
devastating as they have been
perceptible. In the five years from
2007 to 2012, nearly 28 million people
across the globe lost their jobs;
factoring in new entrants to the job
market, that jobs gap rises to 67
million. This represents a massive
waste of resources and an
impoverishment in terms of income
generation, opportunities, capacities
and life projects.
The figures in this country are
well-known and just as worrying.
Accumulated imbalances and a strong
dependency on external financing had
devastating effects when international
20 www.accenture.es/IMAFIN
All of this does not mean that the
countries that had accumulated the
largest imbalances did not need to
remedy them; on the contrary,
cutbacks are always less painful
when the right measures are taken…
provided at the same time there is
reasonable time and financing to do
so (hence, for example, the creation
of the European Stability Mechanism
or ESM).
This (necessarily very brief) outline
highlights how two pressing needs
have emerged from these episodes.
The first relates to the need to
generate confidence, partly to
recover lost financing, but also to lay
the foundations for a solid recovery.
This task is the responsibility of all:
the different tiers of government,
business and (among others) the
social partners. The second need
involves the importance of having
information on this level of
confidence.
What should this information be like?
It should be good and well-ordered,
giving clear signals of the perception
that investors in general –and
foreign investors in particular– have of
the state of the economy and the
development of the country and thus
their willingness to invest here.
One can always find partial or
individual indicators that are merely
informative in nature. The advantage
of the IMAFIN Index developed by
Accenture is that it concentrates an
important volume of information in a
summarized, understandable and
convenient form. It does not claim to
anticipate flows, but rather to
interpret the data and extract useful
information on the signals it offers; to
identify the perceptions of those who
are making decisions and risking
resources.
The Index is the result of combining
information on prices and quantities
(flows), but also on opinions and
variabilities (volatility). The former
includes the risk premium of public
debt and flows of foreign investment
(direct and in portfolio). The latter
includes signs taken from an analysis
of changes in the judgements of
ratings agencies, recommendations of
stock analysts on IBEX 35 companies
and the relative volatility of this index
against the principal European index.
By being aware of the perceptions of
foreign investors, we can increase the
level of internal awareness and more
easily take measures geared towards
solving the problems. Sometimes, by
working on perceptions, one can also
transform reality.
Good foundation
transformation is affecting the
performance of organizations and
people’s lives.
But let us start on a macro note:
membership of the European Union
entails a set of obligations and
entitlements for all its member states.
Among many others, these include
debt and deficit requirements, with
very demanding compliance targets.
Ángel Cano
Former managing director of BBVA
Firstly, I would like to highlight the
importance of this new initiative. This
analysis of the financial perception of
Spain, delivered in a simple and
educational form, will help us reach
possible conclusions and determine
whether our opinions are built on a
good foundation. This is especially
important given that we have just
come through the most severe crisis
in recent history. And it is a crisis that
has been very different to others,
combining as it did numerous political
and economic situations that have
notably impacted the way it has been
managed.
Another aspect reflected in the report
that deserves highlighting is the
excellent performance of most of the
leading private companies from
different industries during this period,
especially when international
comparisons are made. In this regard,
future Reports of Financial Perception
will need to assess how the digital
The creation of a European Central
Bank also proved decisive in the critical
moments we have experienced, in
terms of the evolution of the risk
premium and the credit ratings of most
countries. One cannot forget Mario
Draghi’s words of support for the euro
or his references to managing the
liquidity of the financial institutions in
the region. Equally important was the
creation of a single organ of bank
oversight in November 2014, especially
in terms of its impact on the future
stability and assurance of the banking
systems, and thus on the confidence in
and financial perception of the member
states.
Yes, this crisis has been different. We
were used to handling credit risk and
now we have had to learn to handle
liquidity risk. Everyone believed that
the banks had unlimited liquidity
–perhaps none more so than the
institutions themselves– but now we
have all seen that this was not the
case.
The highpoint in financial perception
of Spain coincided with an explosive
growth in credit which was not
backed by deposits. Although the
debt-to-GDP ratio more than doubled
in the first eight years of this century,
the ratio of deposits to GDP merely
grew apace with the country’s
economy. The result: banks had to turn
to international markets to borrow.
This credit bubble –combined with a
bubble in the property industry–led to
the outbreak of the liquidity crisis. And
it became even more acute as the
country’s credit ratings were
progressively downgraded. Today we
know that without the support of the
European Central Bank, Spain and
some of its neighbors in the Union
would have collapsed.
During this crisis we also came to
realize that an institution could fail as
a result of liquidity issues, however
solid its solvency index. Since 2008 all
banks have been continuously
improving their solvency ratios. And I
might say, without little fear of
contradiction, that the basic capital
ratios have practically doubled since
the beginning of the century, with a
parallel increase in the requirements
involved in defining it.
Finally, we should not forget the role
played during these years by the
ratings agencies, which almost always
over-reacted and lagged behind actual
events. Indeed, at this time, a reaction
from them is again overdue, but this
time to adapt their ratings to Spain’s
new situation (though it is also true
that the current political instability
does not help matters).
To conclude, a recommendation. We
should monitor this index carefully, but
without losing sight of its
interpretation, which is sometimes
influenced by unquantifiable issues.
For this reasons, we should also be
alert to other indications that might
anticipate dramatic changes in
perception. With all these ingredients
we can be sure that we have a good
foundation.
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