Do the rich (really) consume higher quality goods? Evidence from

DO THE RICH (REALLY) CONSUME
HIGHER-QUALITY GOODS?
EVIDENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL
TRADE DATA
Vincenzo Merella and Daniel Santabárbara
Documentos de Trabajo
N.º 1607
2016
DO THE RICH (REALLY) CONSUME HIGHER-QUALITY GOODS?
EVIDENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATA
DO THE RICH (REALLY) CONSUME HIGHER-QUALITY GOODS?
EVIDENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE DATA (*)
Vincenzo Merella (**)
UNIVERSITY OF CAGLIARI AND BCAM
Daniel Santabárbara (***)
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
(*) We would like to thank the seminar participants at the Banco de España and at the 2013 SAEe meeting
(CEMFI-UIMP, Santander) for their useful comments. This paper has been written while Vincenzo Merella was a
Research Fellow at the Banco de España, whose financial support is kindly acknowledged.
(**) University of Cagliari and BCAM. Mailing address: Department of Economics and Business, Viale
Sant’gnazio 17, 09123 Cagliari, Italy. E-mail: merella@unica.it.
(***) Banco de España. Mailing address: International Economics Division, calle de Alcalá 48, 28014 Madrid.
E-mail: daniel.santabarbara@bde.es.
Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1607
2016
The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and finance. All papers
have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute
to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international
environment.
The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore,
do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.
The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the Internet at the
following website: http://www.bde.es.
Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is
acknowledged.
© BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2016
ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line)
Abstract
Using average import prices (unit values) as proxies for quality, a large body of the
international trade literature finds both theoretical and empirical support for the positive
relationship between importer income and quality of imports. Several authors, however,
argue that the empirical evidence of the link between income and product quality might
be spurious, since import prices could be affected by other factors than product quality.
This paper takes into account this issue with a new theoretical and empirical approach.
Building on Khandelwal’s (2010) discrete choice model approach, where quality is inferred
by quantitative market shares as well as unit values, we develop a model that allows for
willingness to pay for quality to vary with income. We empirically validate the theoretical
relationship between importer income and product quality by using the Eurostat’s COMEXT
database, which collects customs data reported by EU countries at 8-digit disaggregation.
Our estimations support the positive link between consumer income and product quality,
which is also robust across sectors.
Keywords: quality, consumer income, import shares, unit values, nested logit demand.
JEL classification: F12, F14, L15.
Resumen
Al utilizar el precio (valor unitario) de los bienes importados como estadístico suficiente de
su calidad, gran parte de la literatura del comercio internacional encuentra evidencia de una
relación positiva entre la renta del importador y la calidad de los productos importados.
Sin embargo, esta evidencia podría ser espuria ya que el precio de las importaciones
puede estar afectado por factores distintos a la calidad. Este trabajo tiene en cuenta esta
limitación con un nuevo desarrollo teórico y empírico. Por un lado, extiende el enfoque de
Khandelwal (2010), en el que la calidad de los productos importados se infiere tanto por
su cuota de mercado como por su valor unitario, al introducir un modelo teórico en el que
la disposición a pagar por la calidad es creciente con la renta del consumidor. Por otro,
utiliza para contrastar esta relación la base de datos COMEXT de Eurostat, que recoge el
comercio bilateral de aduanas de cada país de la UE a un nivel de desagregación de ocho
dígitos. Así, se valida la relación positiva y significativa entre la renta de los consumidores y
la calidad de los productos demandados que, a su vez, es robusta entre sectores.
Palabras clave: calidad, renta del consumidor, cuotas de mercado, valor unitario, comercio
internacional, modelo logit anidado.
Códigos JEL: F12, F14, L15.
%*(&+*!&%
,A78EFG4A7<A: G;8 78G8E@<A4AGF B9 <@CBEG FGEH6GHE8 <F 4 9HA74@8AG4? 6BA68EA B9 G;8 <AG8EA4G<BA4?
GE478 ?<G8E4GHE8 :EBJ<A: AH@58E B9 6BAGE<5HG<BAF CBF<G 4 CEB@<A8AG EB?8 B9 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL
<A F;4C<A: <@CBEG8E 58;4I<BE
A G;<F C4C8E J8 78I8?BC 4 @B78? <A J;<6; E<6;8E 6BAFH@8EF
78@4A7 :BB7F B9 ;<:;8E DH4?<GL 4A7 78C4EG<A: 9EB@ G;8 4FFH@CG<BA G;4G <A9BE@4G<BA BA DH4?<GL
<F 8@587787 BA?L <A CE<68F J8 8@C<E<64??L G8FG G;8 @B78? CE87<6G<BAF HF<A: 7<F4::E8:4G87 GE478
74G4
+;8 <AOH8A68 B9 G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 4A7 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 BA 6BAFH@8E
78@4A7 <9 FHCCBEG87 5L 8@C<E<64? 8I<78A68 JBH?7 ;4I8 @4=BE 6BAF8DH8A68F BA G;8 <AG8EA4G<BA4?
@4E>8GF A 946G 8KCBEG8EFQ FGE4G8:<8F BA CEB7H6G 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA @4L 7<V8E J;8A 784?<A: J<G;
E<6;8E <@CBEG8EF F88><A: ;<:; DH4?<GL :BB7F 9EB@ G;8 BA8F 47BCG87 J;8A 784?<A: J<G; CBBE8E <@
CBEG8EF #<>8J<F8 G;8 8V86G<I8A8FF B9 4 :<I8A GE478 CB?<6L @<:;G 7E4@4G<64??L 6;4A:8 78C8A7<A:
BA G;8 GLC8 B9 6B@C8G<G<BA G;4G 7B@8FG<6 CEB7H68EF 9468 <AG8EA4G<BA4??L +;8 4<@ B9 G;<F C4C8E <F
GB 6BAGE<5HG8 GB F;87 ?<:;G BA G;8 FGEH6GHE8 B9 <AG8EA4G<BA4? 78@4A7 5L CEBI<7<A: ABI8? 8I<78A68
BA G;8 ?<A> 58GJ88A DH4?<GL B9 8KCBEGF 4A7 <@CBEG8E <A6B@8
A 4 AH@58E B9 E868AG G;8BE8G<64? 6BAGE<5HG<BAF G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 4A7
6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 <F E8:4E787 4F 4A <@CBEG4AG 78G8E@<A4AG B9 <@CBEG 4A7 8KCBEG OBJF 2 ?4@
4A7 8?C@4A $HEC;L 4A7 *;?8<98E 4A7 @BE8 E868AG?L 4=:8?54H@ EBFF@4A 4A7
8?C@4A !4<@BI<6; 4A7 $8E8??4 3 A 4?? G;8F8 4EG<6?8F G;8 @4<A CE87<6G<BA
<F <AI4E<45?L G;8 9B??BJ<A: E<6;8E <@CBEG8EF G8A7 GB GE478 @BE8 J<G; 8KCBEG8EF CEB7H6<A: ;<:;8E
DH4?<GL :BB7F +;8 ?<A> 58GJ88A DH4?<GL B9 8KCBEGF 4A7 <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 4CC84EF GB NA7 FHCCBEG
<A 4 ?4E:8 8@C<E<64? ?<G8E4GHE8 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 6BEE8?4G8F CBF<G<I8?L J<G; 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 2
H@@8?F 4A7 "?8ABJ 4??4> 4FGBF 4A7 *<?I4 ?46; 3 +;8 8KG8AG
GB J;<6; FH6; 8@C<E<64? NA7<A:F E8?4G8 GB G;8 G;8BE8G<64? CE87<6G<BA <F ;BJ8I8E 6BAGEBI8EF<4?
+;8 6EHK B9 G;8 @4GG8E <F G;4G B5F8EI87 <@CBEG CE<68F 4E8 GLC<64??L HF87 4F CEBK<8F 9BE G;8 DH4?<GL
?8I8?F B9 G;8 6BAFH@CG<BA :BB7F
+;8 E4G<BA4?8 9BE HF<A: 4 <@CBEG CE<68F 4F CEBK<8F 9BE DH4?<GL ;<A:8F BA 4 AH@58E B9 4E:H
@8AGF ;<:;8E DH4?<GL :BB7F JBH?7 E8DH<E8 @BE8 6BFG?L <ACHGF ;8A68 58 @BE8 8KC8AF<I8 4
I8E4:8 <@CBEG CE<68F BE HA<G I4?H8F 4E8 64?6H?4G87 4G G;8 CEB7H6G ?8I8? 4F G;8 E4G<B 58GJ88A G;8 GBG4? I4?H8
4A7 G;8 GBG4? IB?H@8 GE4787 9EB@ 4 FBHE68 6BHAGEL 8KCBEG8E GB 4 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL <@CBEG8E
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
7
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
@4E>8G CE<68 7<V8E8AG<4? 58GJ88A GJB F<@<?4E :BB7F @4L ;B?7 BA?L <9 G;8<E DH4?<GL ?8I8?F 7<V8E
*8I8E4? 4HG;BEF ;BJ8I8E 4E:H8 G;4G G;8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A CE<68F 4A7 <A6B@8 @4L 46GH4??L 58
78G8E@<A87 5L 946GBEF BG;8E G;4A DH4?<GL 2 4??4> 4A7 *6;BGG *<@BABIF>4 3
+;8 @BFG <@@87<4G8 4E:H@8AG <F G;4G :BB7F FBHE687 9EB@ 7<V8E8AG 6BHAGE<8F @4L 6B@@4A7
;8G8EB:8A8BHF G4E<VF 4A7 GE478 6BFGF HEG;8E@BE8 8KCBEG8EF @4L 6;4E:8 I4E<87 @4E>HCF <A 7<9
98E8AG @4E>8GF CE<6<A:GB@4E>8G J;<6; 6BH?7 ?847 GB FLFG8@4G<64??L ;<:;8E CE<68F 6;4E:87 <A
@BE8 78I8?BC87 86BAB@<8F <A4??L 8I8A CEB7H6GF G;4G 4E8 E8:4E787 4F 6?BF8 FH5FG<GHG8 @4L 8K
;<5<G FB@8 7<FG<A6G<I8 6;4E46G8E<FG<6F J;<6; 6BH?7 E8FH?G <A 4 68EG4<A E8F<7H4? 78:E88 B9 ;BE<MBAG4?
7<V8E8AG<4G<BA
H<?7<A: BA G;<F 6E<G<6<F@ C4EG B9 G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 4GG8@CGF GB 6BAFGEH6G 4?G8EA4G<I8 @84FHE8F
B9 DH4?<GL G;4G 7B ABG E8?L FB?8?L BA CE<68F BE 8K4@C?8 ";4A78?J4? 4A7 'H?4 4A7
*4AG45WE54E4 HF8 DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8F GB B5G4<A @84FHE8 B9 DH4?<GL 9BE G;8 :BB7F
8KCBEG87 5L 4 :<I8A 6BHAGEL 4??4> 4A7 *6;BGG 5E<A: <A GE478 54?4A68F +;8 <784 58;<A7
G;8F8 GJB 4CCEB46;8F <F GB 8KGE46G <A9BE@4G<BA BA DH4?<GL 9EB@ GE478 IB?H@8F ;B?7<A: CE<68F
6BAFG4AG 5H<?7<A: BA G;8 <AGH<G<BA G;4G 6BAFH@8EF 64E8 45BHG CE<68 E8?4G<I8 GB DH4?<GL <A 6;BBF<A:
4@BA: CEB7H6GF 8A68 GJB :BB7F J<G; G;8 F4@8 CE<68 5HG 7<V8E8AG GE478 IB?H@8F F;BH?7 ;4I8
7<V8E8AG ?8I8?F B9 DH4?<GL
+;<F C4C8E 9B??BJF 5L :4G;8E<A: <A9BE@4G<BA BA DH4?<GL 9EB@ IB?H@8F B9 GE478 4A7 <@CBEG
CE<68F 4A7 8KG8A7F 5L ?8GG<A: J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL E<F8 J<G; <A6B@8 ";4A78?J4?QF
4CCEB46; .8 HF8 4 A8FG87 ?B:<G 78@4A7 FLFG8@ GB <A98E <A9BE@4G<BA BA DH4?<GL 9EB@
DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8F 4F J8?? 4F <@CBEG CE<68F BAFH@8EF 9468 4 F8G B9 I8EG<64??L 4A7
;BE<MBAG4??L 7<V8E8AG<4G87 :BB7F CEB7H687 5L @BABCB?<FG<64??L 6B@C8G<G<I8 NE@F +;8L ;4I8
B5=86G<I8 G4FG8 9BE DH4?<GL J;BF8 7<V8E8AG ?8I8?F 4E8 <78AG<N87 BA G;8 I8EG<64? 7<@8AF<BA 4A7
<7<BFLA6E4G<6 G4FG8F 9BE G;8 FC86<N6 6;4E46G8E<FG<6F G;4G ;BE<MBAG4??L 7<V8E8AG<4G8 CEB7H6GF J<G;
G;8 F4@8 ?8I8? B9 DH4?<GL +B G;<F FG4A74E7 984GHE8F J8 477 4 CE898E8A68 E8CE8F8AG4G<BA J;8E8
J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL E<F8F J<G; <A6B@8 +;8E89BE8 BHE 9E4@8JBE> 4??BJF 9BE G;8 I4?H4G<BA
B9 DH4?<GL GB 58 <A6B@878C8A78AG
EB@ 4 G;8BE8G<64? FG4A7CB<AG BHE CE87<6G<BAF 4E8 <A ?<A8 J<G; G;BF8 9BHA7 <A G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8
E<6;8E <@CBEG8EF CHE6;4F8 G;8<E :BB7F 9EB@ 8KCBEG8EF CEB7H6<A: ;<:;8E DH4?<GL CEB7H6GF +;8
ABI8? 984GHE8 <A BHE 4CCEB46; <F ;BJ G;<F G;8BE8G<64? CE87<6G<BA <F I4?<74G87 8@C<E<64??L AFG847
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
8
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
B9 FGH7L<A: G;8 ?<A> 58GJ88A <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 4A7 4I8E4:8 <@CBEG CE<68 J8 <AI8FG<:4G8 G;8 E8?4
G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 4A7 G;8 DH4?<GL 78E<I87 9EB@ 6B@C4E<A: CEB7H6GFQ DH4AG<G4G<I8
@4E>8G F;4E8F 4A7 CE<68F
+B G8FG J;8G;8E 4 CBF<G<I8 6BEE8?4G<BA <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 4A7 BHE @84FHE8 B9 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL
8K<FGF G;<F C4C8E 8KC?B<GF G;8 HA<DH8 984GHE8F B9 G;8 HEBFG4GQF &$/+ 74G454F8 J;<6;
CEBI<78F <A9BE@4G<BA BA 846; , @8@58E FG4G8QF <@CBEGF 9EB@ C4EGA8E 86BAB@<8F 4G G;8 %
7<:<G CEB7H6G ?8I8? 4CCEBK<@4G8?L CEB7H6G ;847<A:F +;<F <A9BE@4G<BA <F HF87 GB B5G4<A
4 ;<:;?L 7<F4::E8:4G8 @84FHE8 B9 G;8 DH4?<GL ?8I8?F B9 G;8 CEB7H6GF 9BE 846; 7<:<G CEB7H6G 4A7
8I8EL 8KCBEG8E <@CBEG87 5L 846; , 6BHAGEL +;8 HA78E?L<A: FGE4G8:L <F GB 6BAF<78E 7<V8E8AG
@8@58EF B9 G;8 , 4F 6BAFH@8EF BC8E4G<A: <A 4 F<A:?8 @4E>8G .8 64A G;8A G8FG G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C
58GJ88A DH4?<GL 4A7 <A6B@8 HF<A: 6BHAGE<8F ' C8E 64C<G4 &HE 8FG<@4G8F FH::8FG 4 EB5HFG
CBF<G<I8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A <A6B@8 4A7 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL *C86<N64??L 4F J8 <??HFGE4G8 <A *86G<BA
BHE E8FH?GF 4E8 EB5HFG GB 7<V8E8AG FC86<N64G<BAF 7B ABG E8?L BA 4AL C4EG<6H?4E <A7HFGEL 4A7
4E8 4?FB EB5HFG GB 4 AH@58E B9 6BAGEB?F 4A7 4?G8EA4G<I8 <AFGEH@8AG4G<BA FGE4G8:<8F
#* #!*(*+(
?4E:8 FGE4A7 B9 G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 CEBI<78F 8I<78A68 B9 4 CBF<G<I8 6BEE8?4G<BA 58GJ88A DH4?<GL B9
<@CBEGF 4A7 <@CBEG8E ' ,F<A: 6EBFFF86G<BA4? 74G4 9BE 5<?4G8E4? GE478 4@BA: 6BHAGE<8F <A
4??4> F;BJF G;4G E<6; 86BAB@<8F G8A7 GB <@CBEG E8?4G<I8?L @BE8 9EB@ 8KCBEG8EF
G;4G CEB7H68 ;<:;DH4?<GL :BB7F <8?8E HF8F 4A 8I8A E<6;8E 74G4F8G 45BHG 6BHAGE<8F
<A G;8 C8E<B7 GB <??HFGE4G8 G;8 CBF<G<I8 ?<A> 58GJ88A <A6B@8 C8E 64C<G4 :EBJG; 4A7
G;8 E<F8 <A DH4?<GL ?8I8?F ;B< H@@8?F 4A7 /<4A: 8KC?B<G ;BHF8;B?7 <A6B@8 74G4 6BHAGE<8F <A 4A7 7B6H@8AG G;4G 7<V8E8AG DH4?<GL 7<FGE<5HG<BAF @4C <AGB 7<V8E8AG <A6B@8
7<FGE<5HG<BAF <A 4 J4L G;4G <F 6BAF<FG8AG J<G; E<F<A: J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL
+;8 6B@@BA 984GHE8 B9 4?? G;8F8 6BAGE<5HG<BAF <F G;4G HA<G I4?H8F 4E8 HF87 4F CEBK<8F 9BE
DH4?<GL ?8I8?F *8I8E4? FGH7<8F CB<AG BHG G;4G HA<G I4?H8F @4L 64CGHE8 BG;8E ?<A>F GB G;8 <@CBEG8EQF
<A6B@8 C8E 64C<G4 G;4A CEB7H6G DH4?<GL ";4A78?J4? 4E:H8F G;4G <@CBEG CE<68F @4L E8O86G
I4E<4G<BAF <A @4AH946GHE<A: 6BFGF 4A7 8KC8AF<I8 :BB7F @4L 58 GE4787 BA?L 5864HF8 G;8L 8K;<5<G
HEG;8E
8I<78A68 G;4G E<6;8E 6BAFH@8EF GLC<64??L CHE;64F8 CEB7H6G B9 ;<:;8E DH4?<GL 64A 58 9BHA7 9BE 8K4@C?8
<A <?F 4A7 "?8ABJ 4A7 EB74 4A7 )B@4?<F BANCO DE ESPAÑA
9
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
C4EG<6H?4E 984GHE8F G;4G @4G6; <7<BFLA6E4G<6 CE898E8A68F B9 4 F@4?? 9E46G<BA B9 6BAFH@8EF <A G;8
78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL *<@BABIF>4 <AI8FG<:4G8F G;8 EB?8 B9 CE<6<A:GB@4E>8G <A 78G8E@<A<A:
<@CBEG CE<68F 4A7 HF<A: 74G4 BA CE<68F B9 @BE8 G;4A GJB ;HA7E87F <78AG<64? :BB7F FB?7 <A 45BHG
G;<EGL 6BHAGE<8F F;BJF G;4G I4E<45?8 @4E>HCF 466BHAG 9BE HC GB 4 G;<E7 B9 G;8 B5F8EI87 6EBFF
6BHAGEL CE<68 7<V8E8AG<4?F
A 477<G<BA ;8G8EB:8A8<GL <A G4E<VF 4A7 GE4AFCBEG4G<BA 6BFGF 4E8 4
J8?? 7B6H@8AG87 FBHE68 B9 7<V8E8A68F <A G;8 CE<68F B9 GE4745?8F BE G;8F8 E84FBAF J8 6;BBF8 GB
78C4EG 9EB@ G;8 8K<FG<A: ?<G8E4GHE8 <AI8FG<:4G<A: G;8 ?<A> 58GJ88A DH4?<GL 4A7 C8E 64C<G4 ' 5L
47BCG<A: 4A 4?G8EA4G<I8 @84FHE8 B9 DH4?<GL 4A7 FGH7L G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8
4A7 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL <A98EE<A: G;8 ?4GG8E 9EB@ G;8 E8?4G<I8 IB?H@8F GE4787 <A G;8 <AG8EA4G<BA4?
@4E>8GF
+;8E8 4E8 GJB @4<A 4CCEB46;8F <A G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 G;4G 4GG8@CG GB 6BAFGEH6G 4?G8EA4G<I8 DH4?<GL
@84FHE8F &A G;8 BA8 ;4A7 4??4> 4A7 *6;BGG <A98E E8?4G<I8 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 5L CBF<G<A:
G;4G 6BHAGE<8F J<G; GE478 FHEC?HF8F BV8E ;<:;8E DH4?<GL G;4A 6BHAGE<8F EHAA<A: GE478 78N6<GF
;B?7<A: B5F8EI87 <@CBEG CE<68F 6BAFG4AG &A G;8 BG;8E ;4A7 ";4A78?J4? 787H68F DH4?<GL
?8I8?F 5L 8KC?B<G<A: GE478 IB?H@8F CBFGH?4G<A: G;4G ;<:;8EDH4?<GL CEB7H6GF 4GGE46G ;<:;8E @4E>8G
F;4E8F 6BA7<G<BA4? BA CE<68 .8 6;BBF8 GB 9B??BJ @BE8 6?BF8?L G;8 F86BA7 4CCEB46; 5864HF8 G;8
E<6;A8FF B9 B5F8EI4G<BAF <A BHE 74G4F8G 4??BJF 9BE 4 NA8E 78G4<?87 4A4?LF<F G;4A G;4G 54F87 BA
JBE?7?8I8? 8KCBEGF 8A68 BHE C4C8E 7<V8EF 9EB@ 4??4> 4A7 *6;BGG 4F J8 <A98E DH4?<GL
5L 8KCBEG8E 4G G;8 CEB7H6G ?8I8? E4G;8E G;4A ?BB><A: 4G 846; 6BHAGEL 4F 4 J;B?8 HEG;8E@BE8
J8 78C4EG 9EB@ 5BG; 4CCEB46;8F <A G;4G J8 8KC?<6<G?L ?8G J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL E<F8 4F
6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 <A6E84F8F +;<F 984GHE8 E8CE8F8AGF G;8 @4<A ABI8?GL B9 BHE C4C8E E8?4G<I8 GB G;8
8K<FG<A: FGH7<8F <A G;<F ?<G8E4GHE8
<A4??L BHE C4C8E E8?4G8F GB G;BF8 6BAGE<5HG<BAF 5H<?7<A: BA G;8 GE47<G<BA B9 7<F6E8G8 6;B<68
@B78?F NEFG CEBCBF87 5L $64778A 4A7 ?4G8E 78I8?BC87 5L 8EEL 4A7 8EEL
#8I<AFB;A 4A7 '4>8F +;8F8 @B78?<A: ;4F 588A 4CC?<87 GB <AG8EA4G<BA4? GE478 5L B?7
58E: 4A7 -8E5BI8A 4A7 @BE8 E868AG?L 5L -8E;BB:8A ";4A78?J4? ?8FF4A7E<4 4A7 "45BF>< CEBI<78 9HEG;8E 8I<78A68 B9 G;<F C;8AB@8ABA F;BJ<A: G;4G ,* 8KCBEG8EF
F;<C G;8 F4@8 :BB7 GB ?BJ<A6B@8 6BHAGE<8F 4G ?BJ8E CE<68F
.8 4E8 4J4E8 G;4G 4 R7<F47I4AG4:8 <F G;4G 2 3 BA8J4L OBJF GB 4 F<A:?8 6BHAGEL 4E8 ?<>8?L GB 58 FH5FG4AG<4??L
@BE8 F8AF<G<I8 GB @<F@84FHE8@8AG B9 GE478 6BFGF G;4A 6BHAGE<8F GE478 54?4A68F J<G; G;8 JBE?7S 4??4> 4A7 *6;BGG
9BBGABG8 C BE G;<F E84FBA J8 <@C?8@8AG 4 AH@58E B9 6BAGEB?F <A BHE 8@C<E<64? JBE> J;<6; J8
7<F6HFF <A F86G<BA BANCO DE ESPAÑA
10
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
4A7 'H?4 4A7 *4AG45WE54E4 8E8 J8 8KG8A7 G;8F8 JBE>F 5L <AGEB7H6<A: 4 @86;4A<F@
G;4G ?847F GB 4 ?<A> 58GJ88A CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 4A7 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 G <F JBEG; ABG<A: G;4G 4
=:8?54H@ EBFF@4A 4A7 8?C@4A 4?FB <AGEB7H68 J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL <A 4 @B78?
J<G; 4 A8FG87 ?B:<G 78@4A7 FLFG8@ +;8<E 9B6HF ;BJ8I8E <F I8EL 7<V8E8AG 9EB@ BHEF +;8<E FGH7L
<F 8K6?HF<I8?L G;8BE8G<64? 4A7 4<@F GB 8KC?4<A J;L E<6;8E 6BHAGE<8F 8KCBEG ;<:;8EDH4?<GL :BB7F
J;8E84F BHE DH4AG<G4G<I8 @B78? <F 78F<:A87 GB CEBI<78 @84FHE8F B9 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL GB G8FG G;8
?<A> 58GJ88A G;8 ?4GG8E 4A7 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8
+;8 E8@4<A<A: B9 G;8 C4C8E <F BE:4A<M87 4F 9B??BJF *86G<BA <??HFGE4G8F G;8 @B78? 9EB@
J;<6; J8 78E<I8 BHE CE87<6G<BAF *86G<BA 7<F6HFF8F BHE 8@C<E<64? FGE4G8:L 4A7 F;BJF G;4G BHE
8FG<@4G<BAF FHCCBEG G;8 G;8BE8G<64? CE87<6G<BAF B9 G;8 @B78? <A4??L F86G<BA 6BA6?H78F
&(*!# ($-&("
+;<F F86G<BA 5H<?7F BA G;8 GE47<G<BA B9 G;8 A8FG87 ?B:<G 7<F6E8G8 6;B<68 @B78?F $BFG 984GHE8F
B9 BHE @B78? 4E8 FG4A74E7 < J8 6BAF<78E 4 C4EG<4? 8DH<?<5E<H@ JBE?7 86BAB@L J;8E8 4 ?4E:8
AH@58E B9 <A78C8A78AG @4E>8GF 8K<FG << G;EBH:;BHG G;8 J;B?8 G;8BE8G<64? 4A4?LF<F J8 E8FGE<6G
BHE 4GG8AG<BA GB 4 F<A:?8 E8CE8F8AG4G<I8 @4E>8G <<< CEB7H6GF 4E8 CBG8AG<4??L FBHE687 9EB@
4A7 78FG<A87 GB F8I8E4? 6BHAGE<8F GB F<@C?<9L @4GG8EF J8 BA?L 6BAF<78E GJB FBHE68 6BHAGE<8F
78ABG87 4A7 4A7 GJB 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGE<8F 78ABG87 4A7 +;8 BA?L ABI8? 984GHE8 B9
BHE 4CCEB46; <F GB 4??BJ 9BE J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL GB E<F8 J<G; <A6B@8
.<G;<A 8I8EL FBHE68 6BHAGEL G;8E8 <F 4 HA<G @4FF B9 NE@F <A78K87 5L " 846; CEB7H6<A: 4
7<V8E8AG<4G87 :BB7 #45BHE <ACHGF 4E8 <@@B5<?8 J;<6; 4??BJF 9BE 7<V8E8AG J4:8F <A 4A7
4A7 G86;AB?B:<8F 7<V8E 46EBFF 6BHAGE<8F .8 4FFH@8 G;4G 6BHAGEL 8A=BLF ;<:;8E J4:8F
) )
4A7 G86;AB?B:<64? 64C45<?<G<8F G;4A 6BHAGEL I8EL 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL
<F CBCH?4G87 5L 4 HA<G @4FF B9 6BAFH@8EF +;8 GJB 6BHAGE<8F 7<V8E <A G;8<E <A6B@8 ?8I8?F 4A7
CBFF<5?L F<M8 4A7 J8 4FFH@8 G;4G 6BHAGEL <F E<6;8E * * G;4A 6BHAGEL *<M8 <F
A 946G G;8 7<I8E:8A68 <A G;8 :B4? B9 G;8 GJB C4C8EF 8AG4<?F 4 9HA74@8AG4? 7<V8E8A68 <A G;8 @B78??<A: FGE4G8:L
4=:8?54H@ 78I8?BC 4 :8A8E4? 8DH<?<5E<H@ @B78? J;8E8 <7<BFLA6E4G<6 G4FG8F ;4I8 4 :8A8E4?<M87 8KGE8@8
I4?H8 - 7<FGE<5HG<BA .8 BCG 9BE 4 C4EG<4? 8DH<?<5E<H@ @B78? J<G; <7<BFLA6E4G<6 G4FG8F ;4I<A: 4 GLC8 8KGE8@8
I4?H8 7<FGE<5HG<BA
BE
4 G8KG5BB> 78F6E<CG<BA B9 G;<F @B78? F88 +<EB?8 +;8
4E:H@8AGF 7<F6HFF87 ;8E8 A4GHE4??L 8KG8A7 GB 4?? F86GBEF 6BAF<78E87 <A BHE 8@C<E<64? <AI8FG<:4G<BA J;<6;
J8 G;8A CE8F8AG <A F86G<BA BANCO DE ESPAÑA
11
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
78ABG87 5L 4A7 8KCE8FF87 <A E8?4G<I8 G8E@F ;8A68 G;8 78FG<A4G<BA E8:<BA ;4F F<M8 BA8 4A7
+JB 477<G<BA4? 984GHE8F 6B@C?8G8 G;8 @B78? <EFG BHGF<78 F86GBEF 78G8E@<A8
J4:8F 4A7 <A6B@8F *86BA7 7B@8FG<64??L CEB7H687 BHGF<78 I4E<8G<8F 4E8 4I4<?45?8 GB 6BAFH@8EF
<A 846; 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL
L 7<V8E8AG<4G<A: G;8<E CEB7H6GF NE@F <A G;8 FBHE68 E8:<BA 8A:4:8 <A @BABCB?<FG<6 6B@C8G<
G<BA +;8L 8K8E6<F8 G;8<E 78:E88 B9 @4E>8G CBJ8E 5L F8GG<A: G;8 CE<68F B9 G;8<E CEB7H6GF G4><A:
6BAFH@8E 78@4A7 <AGB 466BHAG BE G;<F E84FBA J8 58:<A BHE 4A4?LF<F 5L FGH7L<A: 6BAFH@8E
6;B<68 46; <A7<I<7H4? ! <A 6BHAGEL @4L 6BAFH@8 BA8 HA<G B9 4 7<V8E8AG<4G87 :BB7
" CEB7H687 5L NE@ " <A 6BHAGEL BB7 " <A <F 6;4E46G8E<M87 5L G;8
DH4?<GL ?8I8? &
J;<6; <F 4:E887 HCBA 5L 4?? 6BAFH@8EF 4A7 5L G;8 ;BE<MBAG4? 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA
G8E@ J;BF8 I4?H4G<BA <F <AFG847 6BAFH@8EFC86<N6
-4?H4G<BA B9 :BB7 " 5L 6BAFH@8E ! <A 6BHAGEL <F E8CE8F8AG87 5L G;8 <A7<E86G HG<?<GL
9HA6G<BA
&
%
J;8E8 E8O86GF G;8 6BHAGEL 6BAFH@8EFQ 6B@@BA I4?H4G<BA 9BE DH4?<GL %
<F G;8 CE<68 B9
:BB7 " J;8A GE4787 <A 6BHAGEL 4A7 E8CE8F8AGF 6BAFH@8EFQ JBE?7J<78 6B@@BA CE<68
F8AF<G<I<GL .8 <AGEB7H68 G;8 6BA68CG B9 E<F<A: J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL 4F <A6B@8 <A6E84F8F
5L 4FFH@<A: G;4G I4?H4G<BA 9BE DH4?<GL <F 4A <A6E84F<A: 9HA6G<BA B9 <A6B@8
))+$'*!&% -4?H4G<BA 9BE DH4?<GL * <F FH6; G;4G 4A7 * * F 4 E8FH?G G;8 ?4E:8E * G;8 ;<:;8E 4A7 G;8 :E84G8E G;8 J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL 4??
BG;8E 6BA7<G<BAF ;B?7<A: 6BAFG4AG
,A78E G;8 4FFH@CG<BA G;4G G;8 ;BE<MBAG4? G8E@ 9B??BJF 4 H@58? 7<FGE<5HG<BA G;8 8K
C86G87 4::E8:4G8 78@4A7 9BE :BB7 " 5L 6BHAGEL <F
#
J;8E8 & % E8CE8F8AGF G;8 4I8E4:8 I4?H4G<BA B9 :BB7 " <A 6BHAGEL "
#
J;<6; <F <A78C8A78AG B9 F<A68 <7<BFLA6E4G<6 8?8@8AGF I4A<F; J;8A 4::E8:4G<A: 46EBFF
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
12
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
6BAFH@8EF
A 846; 6BHAGEL B9 G;8 FBHE68 E8:<BA NE@F 6B@C8G8 5L CEB7H6<A: I8EG<64??L 4A7 ;BE<MBAG4??L
7<V8E8AG<4G87 :BB7F -8EG<64? 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA 6BAF<FGF B9 6;BBF<A: 4 C4EG<6H?4E DH4?<GL I8EF<BA
B9 G;8 FHCC?<87 :BB7 +B CEB7H68 BA8 HA<G B9 DH4?<GL & 4 NE@ <A 6BHAGEL 9468F G;8 6BFG
) & )864?? G;4G <F 4 G86;AB?B:<64? C4E4@8G8E J4:8F ) 4E8 78G8E@<A87 5L 4A
BHGF<78 F86GBE 4A7 G;8E89BE8 8KB:8ABHF BE<MBAG4? 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA 6BAF<FGF B9 6;BBF<A: J;8G;8E
GB 8@587 FC86<N6 6;4E46G8E<FG<6F GB 9HEG;8E C8EFBA4?<M8 G;8 FHCC?<87 :BB7 ?? NE@F ;BE<MBAG4??L
7<V8E8AG<4G8 :BB7F 4G AB 477<G<BA4? 6BFG
46; NE@ " <A 6BHAGEL G4>8 6BHAGEL 6BAFH@8E 78@4A7 <AGB 466BHAG J;8A 6;BBF<A:
CE<68 %
4A7 DH4?<GL & GB @4K<@<M8 CEBNGF
% ) &
& %
#
GB@?8FF NE@F 64AABG <AOH8A68 G;8 8DH<?<5E<H@ 4??B64G<BAF ;8A68 G;8 BCG<@4? CE<68 6;4E:87
<F
%
&
) G;8 BCG<@4? DH4?<GL <F
&
4A7 G;8 4I8E4:8 I4?H4G<BA B9 :BB7 " <A 6BHAGEL )
EB@ J8 @4L ABG8 G;4G < 4?? NE@F <A 846; FBHE68 6BHAGEL BCG<@4??L FHCC?L GB
6BHAGEL :BB7F B9 G;8 F4@8 DH4?<GL ?8I8? &
&
" J;<6; 4E8 ;8A68 8DH4??L CE<687
%
% " 4A7 BA 4I8E4:8 8DH4??L I4?H87 " << F<A68 :BB7F
CEB7H687 <A 4E8 4?J4LF B9 ;<:;8E DH4?<GL 4A7 :<I8A ?4E:8E I4?H4G<BA G;4A G;BF8 CEB7H687 <A
<<< 5L E8C?46<A: <AGB <A GHEAF BHG G;4G %
)
4A7 F<A68
.8
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
13
<??HFGE4G8 G;8 9BE@4? 78E<I4G<BA B9 4::E8:4G8 78@4A7 <A CC8A7<K DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
) )
:BB7F CEB7H687 <A 4E8 4?FB @BE8 8KC8AF<I8 G;4A G;BF8 CEB7H687 <A )864?? G;4G I4?H4G<BA 9BE DH4?<GL <F 4A <A6E84F<A: 9HA6G<BA B9 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 BAF<78E87
<A 6BA=HA6G<BA J<G; G;<F 984GHE8 B9 G;8 @B78? 78?<I8EF G;8 68AGE4? CE87<6G<BA B9 BHE @B78?
J;<6; J8 @4L FH@@4E<M8 4F 9B??BJF
(&'&)!*!&% BB7F FBHE687 9EB@ 6BHAGEL GB G;8 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL 4E8 4?J4LF B9 ;<:;8E
DH4?<GL G;4A G;BF8 FBHE687 GB &
&
(&& +;8 E8FH?G <@@87<4G8?L 9B??BJF 9EB@ ABG<6<A: G;4G F<A68 * * G;8A 4A7
&
&
+;<F E8FH?G <@C?<8F G;4G E<6;8E 6BAFH@8EF ;<:;8E * 7<FC?4L<A: ;<:;8E J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE
DH4?<GL ?4E:8E ;4I8 4 7<V8E8AG FC8A7<A: FGEH6GHE8 G;4A CBBE8E 6BAFH@8EF 4A7 <A C4EG<6H?4E
G8A7 GB <@CBEG ;<:;8E DH4?<GL :BB7F +;8 68AGE4? CE87<6G<BA B9 BHE @B78? <F G;8E89BE8 <A ?<A8 J<G;
G;BF8 9BHA7 <A G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 4A7 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 F;BH?7 58 CBF<G<I8?L E8?4G87
+;8 ABI8? 984GHE8 <A BHE 4CCEB46; <F ;BJ G;<F G;8BE8G<64? E8FH?G GE4AF?4G8F <AGB 4A 8@C<E<64?
G8FG F J8 7<F6HFF87 <A G;8 CE8I<BHF F86G<BA 8@C<E<64? 6BAGE<5HG<BAF <AI8FG<:4G<A: G;8 6BEE8?4G<BA
58GJ88A <@CBEG8EQF <A6B@8 4A7 6BAFH@CG<BA :BB7F DH4?<GL GLC<64??L HF8 HA<G I4?H8F 4I8E4:8
<@CBEG CE<68F 4F CEBK<8F 9BE DH4?<GL .8 78C4EG 9EB@ G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 4A7 <A98E CEB7H6G DH4?<GL
9EB@ DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8F <A 4 7<E86G 94F;<BA BA68 HA<G I4?H8F 4E8 6BAGEB??87 9BE
A BE78E GB BV8E 4 @BE8 466HE4G8 78F6E<CG<BA B9 G;8 ?<A> 58GJ88A G;8BE8G<64? CE87<6G<BA 4A7
8@C<E<64? G8FG <G CEBI8F 6BAI8A<8AG GB 78E<I8 ;BJ <@CBEG IB?H@8F GE4AF?4G8 <AGB DH4AG<G4G<I8
@4E>8G F;4E8F E8?4G<I8 GB G;8 7B@8FG<6 @4E>8G F;4E8 +B 7B FB NEFG ABG<68 G;4G J8 @4L B5G4<A
GBG4? 6BAFH@CG<BA <A G;8 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL 5L FH@@<A: HC 4::E8:4G8 78@4A7 46EBFF
FBHE68 6BHAGE<8F
.8 G;8A 78E<I8 G;8 @4E>8G F;4E8 B9 G;8 FBHE68 6BHAGEL <A G;8 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL 5L
.8
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
14
<??HFGE4G8 G;8 9BE@4? 78E<I4G<BA B9 BCG<@4?<GL 6BA7<G<BAF <A CC8A7<K DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
6B@CHG<A: G;8 E4G<B 58GJ88A G;8 E8?8I4AG 4::E8:4G8 78@4A7 4A7 GBG4? 6BAFH@CG<BA
'
B??BJ<A: G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 J8 64A 9HEG;8E F<@C?<9L G;<F 8KCE8FF<BA 5L ABE@4?<M<A: GB M8EB G;8
4I8E4:8 I4?H4G<BA B9 G;8 7B@8FG<64??L CEB7H687 :BB7F " J;<6; 4@BHAGF GB <@CBF<A: &
%
,F<A: G;8 7B@8FG<64??L CEB7H687 :BB7F @4E>8G F;4E8 <F
'
F 4 E8FH?G G;8 E8?4G<I8 DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8 B9 G;8 FBHE68 6BHAGEL <A G;8 78FG<A4G<BA
6BHAGEL <F :<I8A 5L G;8 E4G<B B9 GB '
'
+4><A: ?B:4E<G;@F 4A7 HF<A: G;8 78NA<G<BA B9 4I8E4:8 I4?H4G<BA 9BE :BB7 " <A G;8 78FG<A4G<BA
6BHAGEL GB FH5FG<GHG8 9BE J8 B5G4<A G;8 8DH4G<BA G;4G J8 5E<A: GB G;8 74G4 <A BE78E GB
<A98E BHE @84FHE8 B9 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL
'
' %
J;8E8 & ' ' % <F G;8 B5F8EI4G<BA4??L E8?8I4AG I4E<45?8
+;<F E8FH?G <@C?<87 5L G;8 ?B:<FG<6 A4GHE8 B9 G;8 @B78? E8CE8F8AGF G;8 6BEA8EFGBA8 B9 G;<F
GLC8 B9 @B78?F EB@ 4A 8@C<E<64? CB<AG B9 I<8J F<A68 DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8F 4A7 CE<68F
4E8 B5F8EI45?8 J;8E84F DH4?<G<8F 4E8 ABG G;8 ?4GG8E @4L 58 <A98EE87 5L @4E>8G F;4E8F BA68 G;8
8V86G B9 CE<68 <F 466BHAG87 9BE A G;<F E8FC86G G;8 ABI8?GL B9 BHE 4A4?LF<F ?<8F <A <AI8FG<:4G<A:
+;<F 78NA<G<BA <F 7H8 GB G;8 <@CBFF<5<?<GL GB <78AG<9L 4A7 F8C4E4G8?L +;<F 64I84G 7B8F ABG E8CE8F8AG
4 @4=BE <FFH8 F<A68 < <F G;8 F4@8 9BE 4?? :BB7F <@CBEG87 5L 4 :<I8A 6BHAGEL ;8A68 <G JBE>F 4F 4 @8E8 F64?8
946GBE 4CC?<87 GB 4 @84FHE8 G;4G <F BE7<A4? 5L A4GHE8 << J;8A 6B@C4E<A: :BB7F <@CBEG87 5L 7<V8E8AG
E8:<BAF
4A7
G;<F F64?8 946GBE BA?L @4:A<N8F G;8 7<V8E8A68 58GJ88A BE7<A4? DH4?<GL ?8I8?F G;8 @4CC<A: 58GJ88A <F 4A <A6E84F<A: 9HA6G<BA B9 <F @BABGBA<6 F<A68 BANCO DE ESPAÑA
15
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 4A7 CEB7H6G DH4?<GL J<G;<A G;<F 9E4@8JBE> J;8E8 G;8
A8J?L 78I8?BC87 @84FHE8F B9 DH4?<GL E8C?468 4I8E4:8 <@CBEG CE<68F 4F CEBK<8F 9BE DH4?<GL
$'!(!# ''(&
F J8 ;4I8 F;BJA <A G;8 CE8I<BHF F86G<BA BHE @B78? CE87<6GF G;4G G;8 DH4?<GL 8@5B7<87 <A 846;
GE4787 :BB7 <F 4A <A6E84F<A: 9HA6G<BA B9 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 +;<F CE87<6G<BA 64A 58 8@C<E<64??L
G8FG87 HF<A: *<A68 @4E>8G F;4E8F 4A7 CE<68F 4E8 B5F8EI45?8 DH4?<GL @4L 58 <A98EE87 5L
DH4AG<G4G<I8 @4E>8G F;4E8F BA68 G;8 CE<68 8V86G <F 466BHAG87 9BE A J;4G 9B??BJF J8 NEFG
<??HFGE4G8 G;8 74G4 G;4G J8 HF8 GB G8FG BHE CE87<6G<BA .8 G;8A 7<F6HFF ;BJ J8 78I8?BC BHE
8FG<@4G<BAF <A4??L J8 CE8F8AG BHE 8@C<E<64? E8FH?GF
*)* % )*!$*!&% )*(*.
.8 8FG<@4G8 G;8 78@4A7 9HA6G<BA 9BE 846; :BB7 HF<A: 74G4 9EB@ G;8 HEBFG4GQF &$/+
74G454F8 +;8 &$/+ 74G454F8 6B??86GF , ;4E@BA<M87 6HFGB@F 74G4 4A7 6BAG4<AF <A9BE@4
G<BA BA 4?? GE478 OBJF E8CBEG87 5L 846; , 6BHAGEL G <F 4 7<F4::E8:4G87 74G4 FBHE68 J;<6;
CEBI<78F GE478 74G4 4G G;8 %7<:<G CEB7H6G ?8I8? A C4EG<6H?4E G;<F 74G454F8 6BAG4<AF I4?H8F
4A7 DH4AG<G<8F B9 4?? <@CBEGF 9BE 846; , 6BHAGEL BE 4 @BE8 ;B@B:8A8BHF 74G4 4I4<?45<?<GL
4A7 GB B5G4<A 4 CEBC8E?L 54?4A687 C4A8? <A BHE 8@C<E<64? 8K8E6<F8 J8 6BAF<78E NI8 78I8?BC87
6BHAGE<8F 4@BA: G;8 , @8@58EF A4@8?L 8E@4AL E4A68 G4?L *C4<A 4A7 G;8 ," 66BE7
<A:?L BHE 74G454F8 <F 9BHE 7<@8AF<BA4? <G 6BAG4<AF <@CBEG 74G4 9BE 78FG<A4G<BA , 6BHAGE<8F
HA78E CEB7H6G ?458?F 9EB@ GE478 C4EGA8EF 9BE G;8 C8E<B7 ( A
J;4G 9B??BJF J8 78ABG8 G;8 :BB7 <@CBEG87 HA78E CEB7H6G ?458?
9EB@ 6BHAGEL 4F 4 I4E<8GL
+ F FH6; <A BHE 4A4?LF<F 4 I4E<8GL 64A 58 F88A 4F G;8 54F<6 HA<G B9 6BAFH@8E 6;B<68
BE 8K4@C?8 J8 4E8 45?8 GB 7<FG<A:H<F; J<G;<A G;8 @8AQF >A<GG87 F;<EG 64G8:BEL % 7<:<G 6B78 5L
@4G8E<4? 6BGGBA FLAG;8G<6 N5E8 4EG<N6<4? N5E8 JBB? BE BG;8E
@4G8E<4? +;8F8
NI8 6BHAGE<8F 4E8 G;8 ?4E:8FG @4E>8GF J<G;<A , J;<6; :H4E4G88F G;4G G;8L <@CBEG 4 6B@C4E45?8 F8G B9
CEB7H6GF 9EB@ G;8<E GE478 C4EGA8EF 8F<78F G;8 F8?86G87 6BHAGE<8F 4E8 4@BA: G;8 E<6;8FG <A G;8 JBE?7 G;8 E8?8I4AG
C8E 64C<G4 ' N:HE8F 4E8 J8?? 45BI8 <AG8EA4G<BA4? 7B??4EF FBHE68 .BE?7 4A> 4A7 7<FC?4L 94<E?L
F<@<?4E <A6B@8 7<FGE<5HG<BAF G;8 E8?8I4AG <A< 6B8U6<8AGF E4A:8 9EB@ GB FBHE68 HEBFG4G %BG8 G;4G ;BE<MBAG4? 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA 4F 7<F6HFF87 <A G;8 CE8I<BHF F86G<BA B66HEF 4G G;8 CEB7H6G ?8I8? F 4
E8FH?G 8I8EL I4E<8GL <A6?H78F 846; 7<V8E8AG<4G87 :BB7F 58?BA:<A: GB ?458? CEB7H687 <A G;8 FBHE68 6BHAGEL
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
16
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
A BE78E GB :H4E4AG88 4 68EG4<A ;B@B:8A8<GL <A G;8 78@4A7 9HA6G<BA 9BE G;8 7<V8E8AG<4G87
CEB7H6GF J8 8FG<@4G8 4 F8C4E4G8 78@4A7 9HA6G<BA 9BE 846; % 7<:<G <A7HFGEL
A BHE
4A4?LF<F 4?? <A7HFGE<8F J<G; HA7<V8E8AG<4G87 CEB7H6GF 4E8 7EBCC87 4F 5H?7<A: 4 DH4?<GL ?4778E
<A FH6; <A7HFGE<8F JBH?7 ;4E7?L @4>8 F8AF8 G;BF8 <A7HFGE<8F 4E8 F8?86G87 HF<A: )4H6;QF 7<V8E8AG<4G87 CEB7H6GF 6?4FF<N64G<BA +45?8 :<I8F 4A BI8EI<8J B9 G;8 74G454F8 4G 4 7<:<G ?8I8?
&I8E4?? G;8 74G454F8 6BAG4<AF 9BHE7<:<G <A7HFGE<8F 5HG 74G4 4I4<?45<?<GL E87H68F G;8 AH@58E
B9 F8C4E4G8 8DH4G<BAF J8 64A 46GH4??L 8FG<@4G8 GB 4EBHA7 &A 4I8E4:8 C8E 8DH4G<BA J8 ;4I8
CEB7H6GF 4EBHA7 I4E<8G<8F + 4A7 A84E?L B5F8EI4G<BAF + ( +;8 6BI8E4:8 B9 G;8
74G454F8 I4E<8F F<:A<N64AG?L 46EBFF G;8 7<:<G <A7HFGE<8F BE 8K4@C?8 J84E<A: 4CC4E8? ;4F BA
46; 7<:<G % <A7HFGEL <F ?<A>87 GB G;8 E8?8I4AG % 7<:<G 6?4FF<N64G<BA G;EBH:; 4CCEBCE<4G8 6BEE8
FCBA78A68 G45?8F CEBI<787 5L ,)&*++
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
17
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
4I8E4:8 CEB7H6GF C8E 8DH4G<BA J;<?8 G;8 BU68 @46;<A8EL <A7HFGEL ;4F BA?L +4><A: 4?? G;8 FC86<N6F B9 BHE 74G454F8 <AGB 6BAF<78E4G<BA J8 64A E8JE<G8 <A G;8 9B??BJ<A:
9BE@
' ' % $' +;<F <F G;8 8DH4G<BA G;4G J8 H?G<@4G8?L 8FG<@4G8 F8C4E4G8?L 9BE 846; % 7<:<G <A7HFGEL A
846; 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL ' @84FHE8F G;8 @4E>8G F;4E8 B9 I4E<8GL + E8?4G<I8 GB GBG4? 6BAFH@CG<BA
B9 :BB7F <A G;8 E8?8I4AG 7<:<G <A7HFGEL <A GHEA 6B@CHG87 4F G;8 FH@ B9 7B@8FG<6 CEB7H6G<BA
4A7 <@CBEGF @<AHF 8KCBEGF +;8 @4E>8G F;4E8 <F 64?6H?4G87 <A DH4AG<G4G<I8 G8E@F .8 4?FB
6BAF<78E 4A BHGF<78 I4E<8GL E8DH<E87 <A G;8 78@4A7 FLFG8@ 4F G;8 7B@8FG<6 FH5FG<GHG8 9BE <@CBEGF
<A 846; 6BHAGEL J;BF8 @4E>8G F;4E8 ' <F 64?6H?4G87 4F BA8 @<AHF G;8 <A7HFGELQF BI8E4?? <@CBEG
C8A8GE4G<BA 4G 7<:<G
A 8DH4G<BA J8 8FG<@4G8 @4E>8G DH4?<GL 4F 4 FH@ B9 NI8 8?8@8AGF G;8 G<@8 <AI4E<4AG
6B@CBA8AG B9 DH4?<GL <F @84FHE87 5L 4 I4E<8GL NK87 8V86G G;8 6B@@BA F;B6> <F
64?6H?4G87 4F 4 L84E NK87 8V86G 4 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL 7H@@L 6BAGEB??<A: 9BE <7LBF<A6E4G<6
984GHE8F G;8 <A6B@8 8V86G * B5G4<A87 5L <AGEB7H6<A: 78FG<A4G<BA C8E64C<G4 ' 4F
4 E8:E8FFBE <A NA4??L G;8 G8E@ G;4G <F HAB5F8EI87 4A7 <F B5G4<A87 9EB@ G;8 8FG<@4G<BA
8EEBE AGH<G<I8?L 8DH4G<BA F;BJF G;4G 4 ?4E:8E @4E>8G F;4E8 <F E8?4G87 GB ;<:;8E DH4?<GL 49G8E
6BAGEB??<A: 9BE G;8 I4E<8GLQF E8?4G<I8 CE<68 $BFG <@CBEG4AG?L 9BE BHE 4A4?LF<F BHE @B78? CE87<6GF
G;4G CEB7H6G DH4?<GL <A6E84F8F J<G; 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8 4A7 G;8E89BE8 J8 8KC86G +;8 78@4A7 9HA6G<BA 4??BJF 9BE 7<V8E8AG 78:E88 B9 FH5FG<GHG45<?<GL 46EBFF CEB7H6GF +;8
A8FG87 ?B:<G FC86<N64G<BA B9 G;8 78@4A7 6HEI8 4FFH@8F 7<V8E8AG FH5FG<G45<?<GL C4GG8EAF 4@BA:
:EBHCF B9 I4E<8G<8F BE QA8FGFQ J;<6; ;BJ8I8E ;4I8 GB 58 78G8E@<A87 8K4AG8 .8 ?8G CEB7H6G
?458?F
F8EI8 4F A8FGF A C4EG<6H?4E <G <F 4FFH@87 G;4G I4E<8G<8F J<G;<A G;8 F4@8 CEB7H6G 8K;<5<G
4 ;<:;8E 78:E88 B9 FH5FG<GHG45<?<GL G;4A I4E<8G<8F B9 7<V8E8AG CEB7H6GF BE 8K4@C?8 4 ;<A8F8
6BGGBA F;<EG <F @BE8 FH5FG<GHG45?8 J<G; 4 -<8GA4@8F8 6BGGBA F;<EG G;4A J<G; 4 ;<A8F8 AL?BA
F;<EG +;8 A8FG G8E@ $' <F 64?6H?4G87 4F G;8 <@CBEG F;4E8 B9 I4E<8GL + <A G;8 GBG4? <@CBEGF
.;<?8 <G <F 4CC4E8AG G;4G BHE 8FG<@4G8F 4E8 54F87 BA 4 ?4E:8 5HG ABG C4EG<6H?4E?L 54?4A687 C4A8? B9 74G4 G;<F
946G 7B8F ABG E8CE8F8AG 4A <FFH8 F<A68 846; <A7HFGEL <F 5L 6BAFGEH6G<BA <A78C8A78AG?L 6BAF<78E87
+;8 F86GBE4? ?8I8? <F 6;BF8A 4G % 7<:<GF F<A68 G;<F <F G;8 @BFG 7<F4::E8:4G8 ?8I8? 4G J;<6; 74G4 <F
4I4<?45?8 9BE 64?6H?4G<A: @4E>8G F;4E8F <A 6BAFH@CG<BA
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
A G;<F 8K4@C?8 6BGGBA F;<EGF 4A7 AL?BA F;<EGF 4E8 GJB 7<FG<A6G A8FGF
18
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
B9 CEB7H6G
G;8 A8FG
G <F <AGEB7H687 GB ?<@<G G;8 8KG8AG B9 G;8 <FFH8F 4E<F<A: 9EB@ G;8
<A78C8A78A68 B9 <EE8?8I4AG 4?G8EA4G<I8F <A GE47<G<BA4? ?B:<G @B78?F
+;8 FH5FG<GHG<BA C4E4@8G8E 64A 58 <AG8ECE8G87 4F 9B??BJF F 4CCEB46;8F BA8 G;8E8 J<??
58 G;8 ;<:;8FG 78:E88 B9 FH5FG<GHG<BA 4@BA: I4E<8G<8F J<G;<A G;8 A8FG 8: 58GJ88A ;<A8F8 4A7
-<8GA4@8F8 6BGGBA F;<EGF 4A7 G;8 ?BJ8FG 46EBFF A8FGF 8: 58GJ88A 6BGGBA 4A7 AL?BA F;<EGF
F 4 E8FH?G <9 G;8 CE<68 B9 4 :<I8A I4E<8GL <A6E84F8F 6BAFH@8EF J<?? FH5FG<GHG8 <G J<G; I4E<8G<8F
9EB@ G;8 F4@8 A8FG 5HG ABG 9EB@ BG;8E A8FGF +;<F <@C?<8F G;4G G;8 I4E<8G<8FQ E8?4G<I8 @4E>8G
F;4E8 J<?? 6;4A:8 J<G;<A G;8 A8FG 5HG ABG BHGF<78 B9 G;8 A8FG 4A7 G;HF 6;4A:8F <A G;8 BI8E4??
@4E>8G F;4E8 ' J<?? 58 8K6?HF<I8?L 78G8E@<A87 5L G;8 @4E>8G F;4E8 $' J<G;<A G;8 A8FG A
946G <A G;8 64F8 B9 4A <A6E84F8 <A <GF E8?4G<I8 CE<68 4 I4E<8GL G;4G <F 84F<8E GB FH5FG<GHG8 J<?? ;4I8
4 FGEBA:8E 786?<A8 <A <GF @4E>8G F;4E8 8I8A <9 AB 6;4A:8 B66HEF <A <GF E8?4G<I8 DH4?<GL
<I8A G;4G G;8 CE<68 % 4A7 G;8 A8FG G8E@ $' 4E8 8A7B:8ABHF <8 6BAG8@CBE4A8BHF?L
6BEE8?4G87 J<G; G;8 E8F<7H4? <A BE78E GB B5G4<A 6BAF<FG8AG 8FG<@4G8F B9 J8 6BAF<78E 4
AH@58E B9 <AFGEH@8AGF BE G;8 HA<G I4?H8F % J8 HF8 GJB F8GF B9 <AFGEH@8AGF <I8A G;4G
G;8 &$/+ 74G454F8 6BAG4<AF A8<G;8E I4E<8GL?8I8? GE4AFCBEG4G<BA 6BFGF ABE ABAE<I4? I4E<8GL
6;4E46G8E<FG<6F J;<6; 4E8 J<78?L HF87 <AFGEH@8AGF <A G;8 ?<G8E4GHE8 F<A68 4HF@4A BHE
NEFG F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF E8?<8F BA " $ % ! 4A7 <A C4EG<6H?4E BA 6BHAGEL
?8I8? 74G4 A4@8?L G;8 5<?4G8E4? 8K6;4A:8 E4G8 4A7 4 CEBKL 9BE GE4AFCBEG4G<BA 6BFGF 64?6H?4G87
4F G;8 <AG8E46G<BA B9 5<?4G8E4? 6BHAGEL 7<FG4A68F 4A7 G;8 B<? CE<68
+;<F F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF ;4F
G;8 47I4AG4:8 B9 58<A: 4I4<?45?8 9BE G;8 J;B?8 F4@C?8 +;8 F86BA7 F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF <F " $
% 4A7 6BAF<FG B9 G;8 I4E<8G<8FQ 4I8E4:8 HA<G I4?H8F BA 4?G8EA4G<I8 , @4E>8GF +;8 <784
58;<A7 HF<A: G;8F8 FB 64??87 4HF@4A <AFGEH@8AGF <F G;4G 6;4A:8F <A HA<G I4?H8F <A G;<E7 @4E>8GF
8?:<H@ J;8A 8E@4AL <F 6BAF<78E87 64A 58 4FFH@87 GB E8O86G 6BFG F;B6>F 4A7 G;HF 58
HF87 4F <AFGEH@8AGF 9BE CE<68F J<G; E8:4E7 GB G;8 , @8@58E FG4G8 @4E>8G HA78E 6BAF<78E4G<BA
+;8BE8G<64??L F;BH?7 58 64?6H?4G87 4F 4 @4E>8G F;4E8 <A 6BAFH@CG<BA BJ8I8E :<I8A G;4G J8 ;4I8 AB
<A9BE@4G<BA BA G;8 F<M8 B9 G;8 7B@8FG<6 @4E>8G 4G G;8 CEB7H6G ?8I8? J8 64?6H?4G8 <G 4F 4A <@CBEG F;4E8 <8 4F
G;8 F;4E8 B9 I4E<8GL <@CBEG <A G;8 GBG4? <@CBEGF B9 CEB7H6G +;<F <F 8DH<I4?8AG GB G;8 4FFH@CG<BA G;4G 846;
CEB7H6G @4E>8G ;4F G;8 F4@8 <@CBEG C8A8GE4G<BA E4G<B
F 4A 8K4@C?8 <9 G;8 CE<68 B9 G;8 ;<A8F8 6BGGBA F;<EG :B8F HC 6BAFH@8EF J<?? FH5FG<GHG8 <G J<G; -<8GA4@8F8
6BGGBA F;<EGF 4A7 ABG 5L ;<A8F8 AL?BA F;<EGF +;8 BI8E4?? @4E>8G F;4E8 B9 5BG; 6BGGBA 4A7 AL?BA F;<EGF J<??
E8@4<A HA6;4A:87 J;<?8 G;8 @4E>8G F;4E8 B9 ;<A8F8 6BGGBA F;<EG J<G;<A G;8 4CC4E8? J<?? 94?? GB:8G;8E J<G;
<GF @4E>8G F;4E8 J<G;<A G;8 6BGGBA F;<EG <?4G8E4?
8K6;4A:8 E4G8F 4E8 G4>8A 9EB@ * 74G454F8 7<FG4A68F 4E8 9EB@ G;8 '
;GGCJJJ68C<<9E4A:?4<F:E4C;5777<FG4A68F;G@
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
19
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
74G454F8
A 477<G<BA G;8 FHFG<GHG<BA C4E4@8G8E <F <AFGEH@8AG87 J<G; G;8 AH@58E B9 I4E<8G<8F J<G;<A
G;8 A8FG 4A7 G;8 AH@58E B9 I4E<8G<8F 8KCBEG87 5L 4 6BHAGEL
A J;4G 9B??BJF J8 6B@C4E8 G;8 E8FH?GF B5G4<A87 HF<A: G;E88 @8G;B7F G;8 BE7<A4EL ?84FG
FDH4E8 8FG<@4G<BA ?458??87 P&#*Q J;<6; 7B8F ABG 784? J<G; 8A7B:8A8<GL <FFH8F 4A <AFGEH@8AG4?
I4E<45?8 8FG<@4G<BA @4><A: HF8 B9 G;8 FH5F8G B9 ABAI4E<8GLFC86<N6 <AFGEH@8AGF BA?L ?458??87
P -Q 4A7 4A <AFGEH@8AG4? I4E<45?8 8FG<@4G<BA HF<A: G;8 9H?? F8G B9 I4E<8GL 4A7 ABAI4E<8GL
FC86<N6 <AFGEH@8AGF ?458??87 P -Q
)*!$*!&% ()+#*)
+B :<I8 4A BI8EI<8J B9 G;8 :BB7A8FF B9 G;8 E8:E8FF<BAF +45?8 F;BJF 4 FH@@4EL B9 G;8 8FG<@4G<BA
E8FH?GF 9B6HF<A: BA G;8 6B8U6<8AG B9 BHE I4E<45?8 B9 <AG8E8FG G;8 ?B: B9 C8E 64C<G4 '
;8E849G8E ' 6B8U6<8AG <I8A G;8 ?4E:8 AH@58E B9 F8C4E4G8 8DH4G<BAF BA8 C8E 7<:<G
<A7HFGEL G;8 G45?8 F;BJF G;8 7<FGE<5HG<BA B9 G;8 6B8U6<8AGF 4A7 G;8 4FFB6<4G87 CI4?H8F 46EBFF
BHE 8FG<@4G<BAF EB@ GBC GB 5BGGB@ G;8 G;E88 5BK8F <A +45?8 <??HFGE4G8 G;8 E8FH?GF B9 G;8
&#* 8FG<@4G<BA 4A7 B9 G;8 GJB F8GF B9 - 8FG<@4G<BAF 8E849G8E HA?8FF BG;8EJ<F8 FG4G87 J8
E898E GB G;8 - 4CCEB46; 4F G;8 58A6;@4E> 8FG<@4G<BA F<A68 <G 784?F J<G; 8A7B:8A8<GL J<G; 4
5EB478E F8G B9 <AFGEH@8AGF
F 8KC86G87 G;8 @84A B9 G;8 ' 6B8U6<8AG <F CBF<G<I8 <A 4?? 7<V8E8AG 8FG<@4G<BA FGE4G8:<8F
FH::8FG<A: G;4G E<6;8E 6BHAGE<8FQ 6BAFH@8EF G8A7 GB CHE6;4F8 ;<:;8E DH4?<GL :BB7F 9EB@ G;8<E
GE478 C4EGA8EF +;8 4I8E4:8 @4:A<GH78 B9 G;8 6B8U6<8AG <F F<M845?8 45BHG +;8 E8FH?G
B9 BHE 8FG<@4G<BAF <F ABG 7E<I8A 5L =HFG 4 98J <A7HFGE<8F 46EBFF G;8 8FG<@4G87 8DH4G<BAF
G;8 F;4E8 B9 CBF<G<I8 4A7 F<:A<N64AG 6B8U6<8AG <F +B CHG G;<F N:HE8 <AGB C8EFC86G<I8 4
HF89H? 6B@C4E<FBA <F CEBI<787 5L G;8 F;4E8 B9 A8:4G<I8 4A7 F<:A<N64AG 6B8U6<8AGF E8CBEG87
<A G;8 CC8A7<K +45?8 8<A: 54F87 BA G;8 J8??8FG45?<F;87 A8:4G<I8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A
78@4A7 IB?H@8F 4A7 CE<68F BA8 @4L 8KC86G GB NA7 G;4G 4 I8EL ?4E:8 AH@58E B9 F86GBEF 8K;<5<G
4 CE<68 6B8U6<8AG 6B@C?L<A: J<G; G;<F G;8BE8G<64? CE87<6G<BA BJ8I8E G;8 F;4E8 B9 A8:4G<I8 4A7
F<:A<N64AG 6B8U6<8AGF <F 4 @8E8 CB<AGF ;<:;8E G;4A G;8 F;4E8 B9 CBF<G<I8 4A7 F<:A<N64AG
' 6B8U6<8AGF
+45?8
+45?8
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
20
<A G;8 CC8A7<K E8CBEGF G;8 E8FH?GF E8?4G<I8 GB G;8 6B8U6<8AGF B9 CE<68F 4A7 A8FG G8E@F
<A G;8 CC8A7<K E8CBEGF G;8 I4?H8 B9 G;8 ' 6B8U6<8AGF 9BE 846; 8FG<@4G87 8DH4G<BA
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
21
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
+45?8 4?FB E8CBEGF G;8 4I8E4:8 CI4?H8 4FFB6<4G87 GB G;8 ' 6B8U6<8AGF 8FG<@4G8F +;<F
N:HE8 E8CE8F8AGF G;8 @84FHE8 9BE <A7<I<7H4? 4A7 F<A:?8 8DH4G<BA F<:A<N64A68 ' 6B8U6<8AGF
4A7 G;8<E F<:A<N64A68 9BE 846; 8DH4G<BA 8FG<@4G87 4E8 E8CBEG87 <A +45?8 <A G;8 CC8A7<K +B
4FF8FF G;8 =B<AG F<:A<N64A68 B9 BHE ' 6B8U6<8AGF ;BJ8I8E J8 A887 GB EHA 4 9BE@4? G8FG J;BF8
CI4?H8F 4E8 F;BJA <A +45?8 F8C4E4G8?L 9BE 846; 4CCEB46; G <F FGE4<:;G9BEJ4E7 GB ABG<68 G;4G
4?? BHE 8FG<@4G8F 4E8 <A7887 F<:A<N64AG J<G; BA?L G;8 - 8FG<@4G<BA =HFG 94<?<A: GB E846; G;8
6BAN78A68 ?8I8? ?? FG4G<FG<64? 8K8E6<F8F G;HF ?8A7 FHCCBEG GB BHE ;LCBG;8F<F G;4G G4FG8 9BE
DH4?<GL E<F8F J<G; <A6B@8
.8 4?FB 6BA7H6G87 F8I8E4? 8K8E6<F8F GB 4FF8FF G;8 EB5HFGA8FF B9 BHE E8FH?GF +;8 NEFG BA8
78G8E@<A8F GB J;4G 8KG8AG G;8 #<A78E ;LCBG;8F<F 5<4F G;8 DH4?<GL 8FG<@4G8F 4A7 ;8A68 7<FGBEGF
G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A DH4?<GL 4A7 <A6B@8 +;8 #<A78E ;LCBG;8F<F 8FG45?<F;8F G;4G 6BHAGE<8F
J<G; F<@<?4E C8E 64C<G4 ' 7<FC?4L<A: F<@<?4E 78@4A7 FGEH6GHE8F JBH?7 GE478 @BE8 J<G; 846;
BG;8E A G;<F C8EFC86G<I8 4AL 78FG<A4G<BA 6BHAGEL JBH?7 8K;<5<G 4A <AI8EF8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A
G;8 @4E>8G F;4E8F 64CGHE87 5L 8KCBEG8EF 9EB@ 4 C4EG<6H?4E FBHE68 6BHAGEL 4A7 G;8 C8E 64C<G4
' :4C 58GJ88A G;8 GJB 6BHAGE<8F +B 6;86> J;8G;8E BHE E8FH?GF @<:;G 58 @4<A?L 7E<I8A 5L
G;<F B66HEE8A68 J8 C8E9BE@ 4:4<A BHE 8FG<@4G<BA 8K8E6<F8 <A6?H7<A: 4F 4A 477<G<BA4? E8:E8FFBE
4 P#<A78E G8E@Q 6B@CHG87 4F G;8 45FB?HG8 I4?H8 B9 G;8 7<V8E8A68 58GJ88A G;8 ?B: B9 C8E 64C<G4
'F B9 G;8 E8?8I4AG <@CBEG8E 4A7 8KCBEG8E +45?8 E8CBEGF G;8 E8FH?GF E8?4G<I8 GB G;8 ?B: '
6B8U6<8AGF 4A7 G;8 #<A78E G8E@F F 8KC86G87 G;8 #<A78E G8E@ <F A8:4G<I8 4A7 F<:A<N64AG 5HG
<GF <AGEB7H6G<BA F88@F GB ;4I8 ?<GG?8 <AOH8A68 BA G;8 ?B: ' 6B8U6<8AGF J;<6; E8@4<A CBF<G<I8
4A7 B9 F<@<?4E @4:A<GH78 E8?4G<I8 GB G;BF8 78?<I8E87 5L BHE 58A6;@4E> 8K8E6<F8F
+45?8
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
22
<A G;8 CC8A7<K E8CBEGF G;8 E8FH?GF E8?4G<I8 GB G;8 6B8U6<8AGF B9 CE<68F 4A7 A8FG G8E@F
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
23
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
F 4 9HEG;8E EB5HFGA8FF 8K8E6<F8 J8 G8FG G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A DH4?<GL 4A7 <A6B@8 9B??BJ<A:
4 GJB FG4:8 4CCEB46; <EFG J8 8FG<@4G8 DH4?<GL J<G;BHG 6BAF<78E<A: G;8 <A6B@8 G8E@ <A
<A ?<A8 J<G; G;8 BE<:<A4? ";4A78?J4? FC86<N64G<BA +;8A J8 4FF8FF G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C
58GJ88A <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 4A7 DH4?<GL 8FG<@4G8F 5L &#* E8:E8FF<BA +45?8 FH@@4E<M8F G;8
E8FH?GF G;4G J8 B5G4<A BA 4::E8:4G8 &A68 4:4<A G;8F8 E8FH?GF F;BJ G;4G G;8 E8?4G<BAF;<C
58GJ88A CEB7H6G DH4?<GL 4A7 <@CBEG8EQF <A6B@8 C8E 64C<G4 <F CBF<G<I8 4A7 ;<:;?L F<:A<N64AG
&%#+)!&%
+;<F C4C8E CEBI<78F G;8BE8G<64? FHCCBEG 4A7 8@C<E<64? 8I<78A68 BA BA8 B9 G;8 @4=BE <FFH8F <A
G;8 <AG8EA4G<BA4? GE478 ?<G8E4GHE8 J;8G;8E J<??<A:A8FF GB C4L 9BE DH4?<GL E<F8F FLFG8@4G<64??L
J<G; <@CBEG8E <A6B@8 &HE 9E4@8JBE> 5H<?7F BA G;8 7<F6E8G8 6;B<68 @B78?F 4CCEB46; +;8
ABI8?GL B9 G;<F C4C8E ?<8F <A G;8 =B<AG 6BAF<78E4G<BA B9 GJB 984GHE8F <EFG I4?H4G<BA 9BE DH4?<GL <F
<A6B@8 78C8A78AG 4A7 <A C4EG<6H?4E G;8<E E8?4G<BAF;<C <F CBF<G<I8 *86BA7 J8 78C4EG 9EB@ G;8
GE47<G<BA4? 4FFH@CG<BA G;4G <@CBEG CE<68F 4E8 CEBK<8F 9BE DH4?<GL 4A7 J8 8FG<@4G8 DH4?<GL HF<A:
ABG BA?L <A9BE@4G<BA 9EB@ CE<68F 5HG 4?FB 9EB@ @4E>8G F;4E8F
.8 F;BJ G;4G 4 G;8BE8G<64? E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A G;8F8 DH4?<GL @84FHE8F 4A7 6BAFH@8E <A6B@8
<F I4?<74G87 8@C<E<64??L 4A7 7<F6HFF HA78E J;<6; 6BA7<G<BAF <A G8E@F B9 <A6B@8 ?8I8?F 4A7 7<F
+45?8F 4A7 <A G;8 CC8A7<K E8FC86G<I8?L E8CBEG G;8 CE<68 4A7 A8FG 6B8U6<8AGF B9 G;8 NEFGFG4:8 8FG<@4G<BA
4A7 G;8 E8FH?GF E8?4G<I8 GB G;8 6B8U6<8AGF B9 ?B: ' 4G G;8 F86GBE4? ?8I8? B9 G;8 F86BA7FG4:8 8FG<@4G<BA
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
24
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
GE<5HG<BA .8 5E<A: BHE CE87<6G<BAF GB G;8 74G4 G8FG<A: BHE ;LCBG;8F<F BA 4 74G4F8G 6BAF<FG<A:
B9 <@CBEG 74G4 B9 NI8 , 6BHAGE<8F A4@8?L E4A68 8E@4AL G4?L *C4<A 4A7 G;8 ," 4A7
BI8E 4 L84E G<@8 FC4A <8 .8 NA7 4 CBF<G<I8 4A7 F<:A<N64AG E8?4G<BAF;<C 58GJ88A
G;8 DH4?<GL @84FHE8 4A7 G;8 ' C8E 64C<G4 B9 G;8 F8?86G87 6BHAGE<8F &HE 8FG<@4G8F 4E8 EB5HFG
GB 4 AH@58E B9 6BAGEB?F 4A7 GB G;E88 7<V8E8AG @8G;B7B?B:<64? 4CCEB46;8F 54F87 BA 7<V8E8AG
<AFGEH@8AG4? I4E<45?8 FGE4G8:<8F
''%!)
(&& & * &(*!# ()+#*)
(!,*!&% & (* $% BAF<78E G;8 6;B<68 B9 4 :8A8E<6 :BB7 " BI8E 4?? CBFF<5?8 4?G8EA4G<I8F <A G;8 @4E>8G A4@8?L
# J<G; # " J;8A <I8A G;8 786<F<BA EH?8 9BE 6BAFH@8E ! <A 6BHAGEL <F 4F 9B??BJF 6BAFH@8 :BB7 " BA?L <9 # " &HE G4F> <F G;HF GB
6B@CHG8 G;8 CEB545<?<GL
" ! "
#
+;8 G8E@ BA G;8 E<:;G;4A7 F<78 E8CE8F8AGF G;8 =B<AG CEB545<?<GL G;4G ;BE<MBAG4? 7<V8E8AG<4G<BA
B9 :BB7 " <F I4?H87 5L 6BAFH@8E ! <A 6BHAGEL @BE8 G;4A G;4G B9 4AL BG;8E :BB7 .8 64A
G;8E89BE8 JE<G8
" ! 25
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
# #
J;8E8 8KC?B<G<A: G;8 CEBC8EG<8F B9 G;8 8KCBA8AG<4? 9HA6G<BA J8 ;4I8 8KCE8FF87 G;8 CEB7H6G B9 4
:8A8E<6 F8DH8A68 + 4F
+ +;8 G8E@
+ + <F G;8 6H@H?4G<I8 7<FGE<5HG<BA 9HA6G<BA B9
HC GB G;8 I4?H8 *<A68 <F 4 H@58? E4A7B@ I4E<45?8 J8 ;4I8
!
)8C?46<A: G;<F I4?H8 <AGB L<8?7F
" ! !
#
!
# ?FB G;8 CEB545<?<GL 78AF<GL 9HA6G<BA ' B9 4 H@58? E4A7B@ I4E<45?8 <F
'?H::<A: G;<F 8KCE8FF<BA <AGB 4A7 E84EE4A:<A: J8 B5G4<A
" ! #
#
# J;8E8 <A G;8 ?4FG 8DH4G<BA J8 ;4I8 8KC?B<G87 G;8 946G G;4G BANCO DE ESPAÑA
26
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
8ABG8
4A7
%BG8 G;4G
#
<F G;8 ' B9 4 H@58? E4A7B@ I4E<45?8 J<G; F<A68
+;HF J8 64A HF8 G;8 ?4FG 8DH4G<BA GB E8JE<G8 4F
" ! #
#
J;8E8 G;8 G8E@ <A FDH4E8 5E46>8GF I4A<F;8F F<A68 <GF ?<@<G I4?H8 9BE 8DH4?F BA8 4A7
9BE 8DH4?F
M8EB
<A4??L
J8
@H?G<C?L
4A7
7<I<78
5L
GB :8G
" ! "
%BG<A: G;4G 6BHAGEL ;4F @84FHE8 <AG8:E4G<A: BI8E 6BAFH@8EF B5G4<AF
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
27
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
(!,*!&% & &'*!$#!*. &%!*!&%) <V8E8AG<4G<A: J<G; E8FC86G GB % 4A7 F8GG<A: G;8 E8FH?G<A: 8KCE8FF<BA 8DH4? GB M8EB L<8?7F
%
) &
& %
#
F<@C?<9L<A: 4A7 E84EE4A:<A: FGE4<:;G9BEJ4E7?L B5G4<AF <V8E8AG<4G<A: J<G; E8FC86G GB &
4A7 F8GG<A: G;8 E8FH?G<A: 8KCE8FF<BA 8DH4? GB M8EB J8 :8G
&
&
%
&
% ) #
*<@C?<9L<A: G;<F 8KCE8FF<BA E8GHEAF
&
&
% ) ,F<A: GB FH5FG<GHG8 9BE % %
F<@C?<9L<A: 4A7 E84EE4A:<A: ?847F <@@87<4G8?L GB <A4??L C?H::<A: <AGB G;8 78NA<G<BA B9 J8 ;4I8
&
&
)
+;8A HF<A: GB FH5FG<GHG8 9BE &
4A7 E84EE4A:<A: J8 :8G BANCO DE ESPAÑA
28
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
29
!*!&%# *#)
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
30
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
31
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
32
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
33
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
(%)
23 ?8FF4A7E<4 4A7 "45BF>< ! ' P'E<6<A:GB$4E>8G 4A7 G;8 4<?HE8 B9 5FB?HG8 '''Q
! IB? CC 23 4FGBF ' 4A7 *<?I4 ! P+;8 (H4?<GL B9 4 <E@QF KCBEGF .;8E8 LBH 8KCBEG GB @4GG8EFQ
! IB? CC 23 8EEL * PFG<@4G<A: <F6E8G8;B<68 $B78?F B9 'EB7H6G <V8E8AG<4G<BAQ +;8 )% !BHE
A4? B9 6BAB@<6F IB? CC 23 8EEL * #8I<AFB;A ! 4A7 '4>8F PHGB@B5<?8 'E<68F <A $4E>8G DH<?<5E<H@Q IB? CC T
23 <?F $ 4A7 "?8ABJ ' ! P(H4AG<9L<A: (H4?<GL EBJG;Q "# IB?
CC 23 EB74 4A7 )B@4?<F ! P+;8 .8?94E8 @C?<64G<BAF B9 )<F<A: 'E<68 <FC8EF<BAQ $4AH
F6E<CG ,A<I ;<64:B
23 ;B< 0 H@@8?F 4A7 /<4A: PKC?4<A<A: @CBEG (H4?<GL +;8 )B?8 B9 G;8
A6B@8 <FGE<5HG<BAQ ! IB? CC 23 4=:8?54H@ ' EBFF@4A 4A7 8?C@4A P A6B@8 <FGE<5HG<BA 'EB7H6G (H4?<GL 4A7
AG8EA4G<BA4? +E478Q ! $ IB? CC 23 <8?8E P(H4?<GL <V8E8AG<4G<BA <A +E478+;8BEL 4A7 I<78A68Q $<@8B , '8AA
2
3 ?46; # P(H4?<GL HC:E47<A: 4A7 CE<68 ;8G8EB:8A8<GL I<78A68 9EB@ E4M<?<4A 8KCBEG8EFQ
$<@8B
23 ?4@ 4A7 8?C@4A P-8EG<64? 'EB7H6G <V8E8AG<4G<BA 4A7 %BEG;*BHG; +E478Q "# IB? CC 23 B?758E: ' " P'EB7H6G <V8E8AG<4G<BA 4A7 &?<:BCB?L <A AG8EA4G<BA4? $4E>8GF +;8 4F8
B9 G;8 ,* HGB@B5<?8 A7HFGELQ IB? CC T
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
34
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
23 4??4> ! P'EB7H6G (H4?<GL 4A7 G;8 <E86G<BA B9 +E478Q ! IB? CC 23 4??4> ! 4A7 *6;BGG ' " PFG<@4G<A: EBFFBHAGEL <V8E8A68F <A 'EB7H6G (H4?<GLQ
! $ ! IB? CC 23 4HF@4A ! P-4?H4G<BA B9 %8J BB7F HA78E '8E986G 4A7 @C8E986G B@C8G<G<BAQ <A +;8
6BAB@<6F B9 %8J BB7F %) 87<G87 5L E8FA4;4A + 4A7 BE7BA ) CC 23 H@@8?F 4A7 "?8ABJ '! P+;8 -4E<8GL 4A7 (H4?<GL B9 4 %4G<BAQF KCBEGFQ @8E<64A
6BAB@<6 )8I<8J IB? CC 23 !4<@BI<6; 4A7 $8E8??4 - P(H4?<GL #4778EF <A 4 )<64E7<4A $B78? B9 +E478 J<G; %BA
;B@BG;8G<6 'E898E8A68FQ ! ! IB? CC 23 !4<@BI<6; 4A7 $8E8??4 - P#BI8 9BE (H4?<GL B@C4E4G<I8 7I4AG4:8 4A7 +E478Q
! IB? CC 23 ";4A78?J4? P+;8 ?BA: 4A7 F;BEG B9 DH4?<GL ?4778EFQ "# ! IB?
CC 2
3 #4A64FG8E " ! P %8J CCEB46; GB BAFH@8E +;8BELQ ! $
IB? CC 23 $64778A PBA7<G<BA4? #B:<G A4?LF<F B9 (H4?<G4G<I8 ;B<68 8;4I<BEQ <A EBAG<8EF <A
6BAB@8GE<6F %8J 0BE> 6478@<6 'E8FF 87<G87 5L ' 14E8@5>4 CC 23 $HEC;L " 4A7 *;?8<98E P(H4?<GL 4A7 +E478Q ! " IB?
CC 23 'H?4 4A7 *4AG45WE54E4 P F ;<A4 ?<@5<A: HC G;8 (H4?<GL #4778EQ .BE><A: '4C8E
4A6B 78 FC4X4
23 *<@BABIF>4 P A6B@8 7<V8E8A68F 4A7 CE<68F B9 GE4745?8FQ %) .BE><A: '4C8E 23 +<EB?8 ! +;8 +;8BEL B9 A7HFGE<4? &E:4A<M4G<BA 4@5E<7:8 $ + 'E8FF
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
35
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
23 -8E5BI8A P AG8EA4G<BA4? 'E<68 <F6E<@<A4G<BA <A G;8 HEBC84A 4E $4E>8GQ ! IB? CC T
23 -8E;BB:8A P+E478 (H4?<GL ,C:E47<A: 4A7 .4:8 A8DH4?<GL <A G;8 $8K<64A $4AH946
GHE<A: *86GBEQ ! $ ! IB? CC T
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
36
DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1607
BANCO DE ESPAÑA PUBLICATIONS
WORKING PAPERS
1416
DIEGO J. PEDREGAL, JAVIER J. PÉREZ and A. JESÚS SÁNCHEZ-FUENTES: A toolkit to strengthen government
budget surveillance.
1417
J. IGNACIO CONDE-RUIZ, and CLARA I. GONZÁLEZ: From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain.
1418 PABLO HERNÁNDEZ DE COS, GERRIT B. KOESTER, ENRIQUE MORAL-BENITO and CHRISTIANE NICKEL:
Signalling jscal stress in the euro area: a country-specijc early warning system.
1419 MIGUEL ALMUNIA and DAVID LÓPEZ-RODRÍGUEZ: Heterogeneous responses to effective tax enforcement:
evidence from Spanish jrms.
1420 ALFONSO R. SÁNCHEZ: The automatic adjustment of pension expenditures in Spain: an evaluation of the 2013
pension reform.
1421 JAVIER ANDRÉS, ÓSCAR ARCE and CARLOS THOMAS: Structural reforms in a debt overhang.
1422 LAURA HOSPIDO and ENRIQUE MORAL-BENITO: The public sector wage premium in Spain: evidence from
longitudinal administrative data.
1423 MARÍA DOLORES GADEA-RIVAS, ANA GÓMEZ-LOSCOS and GABRIEL PÉREZ-QUIRÓS: The Two Greatest. Great
Recession vs. Great Moderation.
1424 ENRIQUE MORAL-BENITO and OLIVER ROEHN: The impact of jnancial (de)regulation on current account balances.
1425 MAXIMO CAMACHO and JAIME MARTINEZ-MARTIN: Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models.
1426 ALFREDO MARTÍN OLIVER, SONIA RUANO PARDO and VICENTE SALAS FUMÁS: Productivity and welfare: an
application to the Spanish banking industry.
1427 JAVIER ANDRÉS and PABLO BURRIEL: Inkation dynamics in a model with jrm entry and (some) heterogeneity.
1428 CARMEN BROTO and LUIS MOLINA: Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals.
1429 JUAN ÁNGEL GARCÍA and RICARDO GIMENO: Flight-to-liquidity kows in the euro area sovereign debt crisis.
1430 ANDRÈ LEMELIN, FERNANDO RUBIERA-MOROLLÓN and ANA GÓMEZ-LOSCOS: Measuring urban agglomeration.
A refoundation of the mean city-population size index.
1431
LUIS DÍEZ-CATALÁN and ERNESTO VILLANUEVA: Contract staggering and unemployment during the Great Recession:
evidence from Spain.
1501
LAURA HOSPIDO and EVA MORENO-GALBIS: The Spanish productivity puzzle in the Great Recession.
1502
LAURA HOSPIDO, ERNESTO VILLANUEVA and GEMA ZAMARRO: Finance for all: the impact of jnancial literacy training
in compulsory secondary education in Spain.
1503
MARIO IZQUIERDO, JUAN F. JIMENO and AITOR LACUESTA: Spain: from immigration to emigration?
1504
PAULINO FONT, MARIO IZQUIERDO and SERGIO PUENTE: Real wage responsiveness to unemployment in Spain:
asymmetries along the business cycle.
1505
JUAN S. MORA-SANGUINETTI and NUNO GAROUPA: Litigation in Spain 2001-2010: Exploring the market
for legal services.
1506
ANDRES ALMAZAN, ALFREDO MARTÍN-OLIVER and JESÚS SAURINA: Securitization and banks’ capital structure.
1507
JUAN F. JIMENO, MARTA MARTÍNEZ-MATUTE and JUAN S. MORA-SANGUINETTI: Employment protection legislation
and labor court activity in Spain.
1508
JOAN PAREDES, JAVIER J. PÉREZ and GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIRÓS: Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?
1509
MAXIMO CAMACHO and JAIME MARTINEZ-MARTIN: Monitoring the world business cycle.
1510
JAVIER MENCÍA and ENRIQUE SENTANA: Volatility-related exchange traded assets: an econometric investigation.
1511
PATRICIA GÓMEZ-GONZÁLEZ: Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity.
1512
MIGUEL GARCÍA-POSADA and MARCOS MARCHETTI: The bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy:
the impact of the VLTROs on credit supply in Spain.
1513
JUAN DE LUCIO, RAÚL MÍNGUEZ, ASIER MINONDO and FRANCISCO REQUENA: Networks and the dynamics of
jrms’ export portfolio.
1514
ALFREDO IBÁÑEZ: Default near-the-default-point: the value of and the distance to default.
1515
IVÁN KATARYNIUK and JAVIER VALLÉS: Fiscal consolidation after the Great Recession: the role of composition.
1516
PABLO HERNÁNDEZ DE COS and ENRIQUE MORAL-BENITO: On the predictability of narrative jscal adjustments.
1517
GALO NUÑO and CARLOS THOMAS: Monetary policy and sovereign debt vulnerability.
1518
CRISTIANA BELU MANESCU and GALO NUÑO: Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution.
1519
YAEL V. HOCHBERG, CARLOS J. SERRANO and ROSEMARIE H. ZIEDONIS: Patent collateral, investor commitment
and the market for venture lending.
1520
TRINO-MANUEL ÑÍGUEZ, IVAN PAYA, DAVID PEEL and JAVIER PEROTE: Higher-order risk preferences, constant
relative risk aversion and the optimal portfolio allocation.
1521
LILIANA ROJAS-SUÁREZ and JOSÉ MARÍA SERENA: Changes in funding patterns by Latin American banking systems:
how large? how risky?
1522
JUAN F. JIMENO: Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis.
1523
MAXIMO CAMACHO, DANILO LEIVA-LEON and GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS: Country shocks, monetary policy
expectations and ECB decisions. A dynamic non-linear approach.
1524
JOSÉ MARÍA SERENA GARRALDA and GARIMA VASISHTHA: What drives bank-intermediated trade jnance?
1525
GABRIELE FIORENTINI, ALESSANDRO GALESI and ENRIQUE SENTANA: Fast ML estimation of dynamic bifactor
Evidence from cross-country analysis.
models: an application to European inkation.
1526
YUNUS AKSOY and HENRIQUE S. BASSO: Securitization and asset prices.
1527
MARÍA DOLORES GADEA, ANA GÓMEZ-LOSCOS and GABRIEL PEREZ-QUIROS: The Great Moderation in historical
perspective. Is it that great?
1528
YUNUS AKSOY, HENRIQUE S. BASSO, RON P. SMITH and TOBIAS GRASL: Demographic structure and
macroeconomic trends.
1529
JOSÉ MARÍA CASADO, CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ and JUAN F. JIMENO: Worker kows in the European Union during
the Great Recession.
1530
CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ and PILAR GARCÍA PEREA: The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita.
1531
IRMA ALONSO ÁLVAREZ: Institutional drivers of capital kows.
1532
PAUL EHLING, MICHAEL GALLMEYER, CHRISTIAN HEYERDAHL-LARSEN and PHILIPP ILLEDITSCH: Disagreement
about inkation and the yield curve.
1533
GALO NUÑO and BENJAMIN MOLL: Controlling a distribution of heterogeneous agents.
1534
TITO BOERI and JUAN F. JIMENO: The unbearable divergence of unemployment in Europe.
1535
OLYMPIA BOVER: Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future
house prices.
1536
CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ, AITOR LACUESTA, JOSÉ MANUEL MONTERO and ALBERTO URTASUN: Heterogeneity
of markups at the jrm level and changes during the great recession: the case of Spain.
1537
MIGUEL SARMIENTO and JORGE E. GALÁN: The inkuence of risk-taking on bank efjciency: evidence from Colombia.
1538
ISABEL ARGIMÓN, MICHEL DIETSCH and ÁNGEL ESTRADA: Prudential jlters, portfolio composition and capital ratios
in European banks.
1539
MARIA M. CAMPOS, DOMENICO DEPALO, EVANGELIA PAPAPETROU, JAVIER J. PÉREZ and ROBERTO RAMOS:
Understanding the public sector pay gap.
1540
ÓSCAR ARCE, SAMUEL HURTADO and CARLOS THOMAS: Policy spillovers and synergies in a monetary union.
1601
CHRISTIAN CASTRO, ÁNGEL ESTRADA and JORGE MARTÍNEZ: The countercyclical capital buffer in Spain:
an analysis of key guiding indicators.
1602
TRINO-MANUEL ÑÍGUEZ and JAVIER PEROTE: Multivariate moments expansion density: application of the dynamic
equicorrelation model.
1603
ALBERTO FUERTES and JOSÉ MARÍA SERENA: How jrms borrow in international bond markets: securities regulation
and market segmentation.
1604
ENRIQUE ALBEROLA, IVÁN KATARYNIUK, ÁNGEL MELGUIZO and RENÉ OROZCO: Fiscal policy and the cycle
in Latin America: the role of jnancing conditions and jscal rules.
1605
ANA LAMO, ENRIQUE MORAL-BENITO and JAVIER J. PÉREZ: Does slack inkuence public and private labour
market interactions?
1606
FRUCTUOSO BORRALLO, IGNACIO HERNANDO and JAVIER VALLÉS: The effects of US unconventional monetary
policies in Latin America.
1607
VINCENZO MERELLA and DANIEL SANTABÁRBARA: Do the rich (really) consume higherquality goods? Evidence from
international trade data.
Unidad de Servicios Auxiliares
Alcalá, 48 - 28014 Madrid
E-mail: publicaciones@bde.es
www.bde.es