Additional Documentation for “Who Votes for Chavismo? Class Voting in Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela” Table X1. Representativeness of survey sample demographics 1993 Sample 1998 Pop Urbanizationa Urban Rural 2000 2004 Sample Pop Sample Pop 84.1 15.9 87.0 13.0 88.8 11.2 87.0 13.0 Sample 2006 Pop Sample Pop 95.2 4.8 93.4 6.6 Genderb Male Female 49.5 50.5 50 50 49.7 50.3 50 50 48.4 51.6 50 50 50.1 49.9 50 50 50.1 49.9 50 50 Agec 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55 and older 23.4 28.3 20.7 18.1 9.6 21.2 29.4 21.5 13.2 14.7 28.9 25.8 18.8 13.3 13.2 20.7 28.6 22.6 15.0 13.1 23.8 28.2 21.5 12.0 14.5 20.5 28.3 23.1 15.7 12.4 22.0 26.0 21.1 15.0 16.0 20.1 27.6 24.0 17.2 11.1 24.7 26.8 23.2 13.1 12.2 19.9 27.3 24.4 17.9 10.5 15.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 6.6 2.8 5.1 8.2 0.8 9.9 0.3 5.2 1.6 6.3 2.6 5.2 8.3 1.1 11.8 8.7 0.3 5.4 1.6 6.3 2.8 5.4 8.5 1.1 8.0 0.0 6.1 2.4 7.2 2.9 5.3 8.5 1.1 8.3 0.3 5.5 1.6 6.3 2.9 5.4 8.6 1.1 Statec Federal District Amazonas Anzoátegui Apure Aragua Barinas Bolívar Carabobo Cojedas 1.1 1.3 7.6 2.2 6.4 8.3 2.4 1 1993 Sample Delta Amacuro Falcón Guárico Lara Mérida Miranda Monagas Nueva Esparta Portuguesa Sucre Táchira Trujillo Vargas Yaracuy Zulia Regionc Capital Central Centro Occidental Guayana Insular Los Andes Los Llanos Nor-Oriental Sur Occidental Zulia 1998 Pop 2000 Sample 0.5 3.1 1.9 6.0 4.1 6.8 2.6 0.9 3.2 3.7 6.1 1.7 Pop 0.4 3.3 2.7 6.7 3.1 10.2 3.0 1.6 3.1 3.5 4.4 2.6 2.1 11.3 2.2 12.8 Sample 2004 Pop Sample 0.8 2.1 9.0 2.8 6.8 3.1 1.8 3.2 5.1 3.9 2.3 3.3 14.8 28.7 18.0 10.2 6.0 6.4 7.3 9.8 13.6 2006 Pop 0.4 3.3 2.7 6.9 3.1 10.0 3.2 1.6 3.1 3.3 4.2 2.6 1.7 2.2 13.2 Sample 0.0 0.0 2.7 6.4 3.4 10.1 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.2 2.7 1.6 2.1 16.7 Pop 0.4 3.3 2.7 6.9 3.1 10.0 3.3 1.6 3.1 3.2 4.2 2.6 1.9 2.2 13.2 19.4 15.8 15.4 6 1.6 8.4 4.3 11.8 4.3 13 Educationd 2 1993 None Primary Secondary University Sample 19.5 52.4 22.5 5.6 1998 Pop 17.3 46.5 19.7 16.4 Sample 12.3 41.0 23.9 22.9 2000 Pop 18.6 45.2 20 16.3 Sample 8.9 41.7 34.1 15.3 2004 Pop 17.8 43.5 20.5 18.1 Sample 14.1 31.6 37.3 17.0 2006 Pop 15.9 41.2 22.9 19.9 Sample 12.5 50.3 25.5 11.7 Pop 15.9 41.2 22.9 19.9 a United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, 1999 and 2005 World Development Indicators c Venezuelan National Census, 1990 and 2001 (reported values are interpolated using linear rates of growth) d Economic Commission on Latin American and the Caribbean, Social Panorama of Latin America, 2006, Table 31.1 (reported values correspond to 1994, 1998, 2000, and 2005) b 3 Table X2. Comparison of survey sample and population vote distributions 1993 Rafael Caldera Claudio Fermín Oswaldo Alvarez Paz Andrés Velásquez Hugo Chávez Frías Henrique Salas Römer Irene Sáez Luis Alfaro Ucero† Miguel Rodríguez Alfredo Ramos Francisco Arias Manuel Rosales Others 1998 Survey Pop 29.3 20.6 34.7 13.5 30.5 23.6 22.7 22.0 Survey 48.0 37.7 2.5 10.1 1.07 0.09 2.0 1.2 0.54 2000 Pop 56.2 40.0 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.11 2004 Survey Pop 8.0 2.7 61.0 59.8 31.0 37.5 Survey 37.6 62.4 1,369 Turnout Abstention 77.7 22.4 1,121 60.2 39.8 88.5 11.5 Pop 0.18 No (2004 referendum) Yes (2004 referendum) Respondents 2006 1,307 63.8 36.2 88.8 11.2 92.9 7.1 Pop 76.3 62.8 19.9 3.8 36.9 0.3 50.1 48.9 1,050 56.3 43.7 Survey 1,507 69.9 30.1 76.8 23.2 74.7 25.3 Sources: Election results are from Molina (2004); National Electoral Commission. † Ucero resigned from the race after the 1998 survey was conducted, and his party backed Salas Römer in an attempt to avoid a victory for Chávez (see McCoy 1999). 4 Table X3. Descriptive statistics Year 1993 1998 2000 2004 2006 Variable Income Age Gender Education Income Age Gender Education Income Age Gender Education Income Age Gender Education Income Age Gender Education Observations Mean Standard Deviation Minimum Maximum 1,388 1,479 1,499 1,499 1,401 1,500 1,500 1,492 1,364 1,500 1,500 1,500 887 1,197 1,197 1,015 1,303 1,464 1,510 1,372 1.36 1.62 0.51 1.14 1.46 1.56 0.50 1.57 1.39 1.65 0.52 1.56 1.16 1.77 0.50 1.57 1.61 1.66 0.50 1.36 0.88 1.28 0.50 0.79 1.09 1.37 0.50 0.97 1.11 1.35 0.50 0.86 1.02 1.37 0.50 0.93 1.05 1.31 0.50 0.85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 1 3 3 4 1 3 3 4 1 3 3 4 1 3 3 4 1 3 Table X4. Effect of income on vote choice, 1998 (1) Income group: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Age Gender Education Constant (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 0.164 (0.18) 0.231 (0.20) 0.0666 (0.19) 0.214 (0.18) 0.0500 (0.17) -0.0166 (0.19) 0.446** (0.18) 0.282* (0.17) 0.216 (0.19) 0.232 (0.16) 0.242 (0.19) 0.0778 (0.18) 0.0112 (0.20) 0.0278 (0.17) -0.204 (0.17) 0.316* (0.18) 0.152 (0.17) 0.0854 (0.19) 0.102 (0.16) -0.130 (0.16) 0.0743 (0.17) 0.240 (0.22) 0.0763 (0.22) 0.00968 (0.23) 0.0263 (0.21) -0.206 (0.21) -0.00150 (0.21) -0.0758 (0.20) 0.482** (0.19) 0.319* (0.18) 0.252 (0.19) 0.269 (0.16) 0.0364 (0.16) 0.241 (0.17) 0.167 (0.16) 0.242 (0.20) 0.713*** (0.20) 0.549*** (0.19) 0.482** (0.21) 0.499*** (0.18) 0.266 (0.17) 0.471** (0.19) 0.397** (0.17) 0.472** (0.21) 0.230 (0.17) 0.414** 0.430** 0.198 0.403** 0.328* 0.404* 0.162 -0.0683 -0.164 (0.18) -0.231 -0.0666 (0.20) (0.19) -0.214 -0.0500 0.0166 (0.18) (0.17) (0.19) -0.446** -0.282* -0.216 -0.232 (0.18) (0.17) (0.19) (0.16) -0.242 -0.0778 -0.0112 -0.0278 0.204 (0.18) (0.20) (0.17) (0.17) (0.19) -0.316* -0.152 -0.0854 -0.102 0.130 -0.0743 (0.18) (0.17) (0.19) (0.16) (0.16) (0.17) -0.240 -0.0763 -0.00968 -0.0263 0.206 0.00150 0.0758 (0.22) (0.22) (0.23) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.20) -0.482** -0.319* -0.252 -0.269 -0.0364 -0.241 -0.167 -0.242 (0.19) (0.18) (0.19) (0.16) (0.16) (0.17) (0.16) (0.20) -0.713*** -0.549*** -0.482** -0.499*** -0.266 -0.471** -0.397** -0.472** -0.230 (0.20) (0.19) (0.21) (0.18) (0.17) (0.19) (0.17) (0.21) (0.17) 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* 0.0561* (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** -0.422*** (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) (0.079) 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 0.0468 (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) (0.047) 0.644*** 0.480** Observations (1) (0.19) 1243 (2) (0.19) 1243 (3) (0.20) 1243 (4) (0.18) 1243 (5) (0.18) 1243 (6) (0.19) 1243 (7) (0.17) 1243 (8) (0.22) 1243 (9) (0.18) 1243 (10) (0.20) 1243 Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all models) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 7 Table X5. Effect of income on vote choice, 2000 (1) Income group: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Age Gender Education Constant Observations (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) -0.0542 (0.18) -0.105 (0.18) -0.0507 (0.14) -0.148 (0.18) -0.0934 (0.15) -0.0427 (0.14) -0.158 (0.21) -0.103 (0.17) -0.0527 (0.16) -0.0100 (0.17) -0.194 (0.21) -0.140 (0.17) -0.0892 (0.16) -0.0466 (0.17) -0.0366 (0.19) 0.000344 (0.20) 0.0546 (0.17) 0.105 (0.15) 0.148 (0.17) 0.158 (0.18) 0.195 (0.18) 0.0542 (0.18) 0.105 0.0507 (0.18) (0.14) 0.148 0.0934 0.0427 (0.18) (0.15) (0.14) 0.158 0.103 0.0527 0.0100 (0.21) (0.17) (0.16) (0.17) 0.194 0.140 0.0892 0.0466 0.0366 (0.21) (0.17) (0.16) (0.17) (0.19) -0.000344 -0.0546 -0.105 -0.148 -0.158 -0.195 (0.20) (0.17) (0.15) (0.17) (0.18) (0.18) 0.0337 0.0337 0.0337 0.0337 0.0337 0.0337 0.0337 (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) (0.034) -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** -0.180** (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 (0.055) (0.055) (0.055) (0.055) (0.055) (0.055) (0.055) 0.468** (0.21) 1113 0.522*** 0.573*** 0.615*** 0.625*** 0.662*** (0.17) (0.17) (0.18) (0.21) (0.20) 1113 1113 1113 1113 1113 0.467** (0.20) 1113 Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (region dummies included in all models) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Table X6. Effect of income on vote choice, 2004 (1) Income group: 1 2 3 4 5 6 Age Gender Education Constant Observations (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -0.0847 (0.15) -0.0906 (0.18) -0.00589 (0.17) -0.278 (0.23) -0.193 (0.22) -0.187 (0.24) -0.393 (0.26) -0.309 (0.25) -0.303 (0.26) -0.116 (0.31) 0.215 (0.29) 0.300 (0.28) 0.306 (0.29) 0.493 (0.34) 0.609* (0.35) 0.0847 (0.15) 0.0906 (0.18) 0.278 (0.23) 0.393 (0.26) -0.215 (0.29) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) 0.00589 (0.17) 0.193 (0.22) 0.309 (0.25) -0.300 (0.28) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) 0.187 (0.24) 0.303 (0.26) -0.306 (0.29) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) 0.116 (0.31) -0.493 (0.34) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) -0.609* (0.35) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) -0.0557 (0.046) -0.190* (0.11) -0.142** (0.069) 0.270 (0.23) 738 0.355 (0.24) 738 0.361 (0.25) 738 0.548* (0.29) 738 0.664** (0.32) 738 0.0549 (0.35) 738 Probit estimates with robust standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all models) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 9 Table X7. Effect of income on vote choice, 2006 (1) Income group: 1 2 3 4 5 6 Age Gender Education Constant Observations (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -0.227 (0.19) -0.331 (0.24) -0.104 (0.19) -0.144 (0.21) 0.0828 (0.20) 0.187 (0.21) -0.336 (0.23) -0.109 (0.20) -0.00474 (0.22) -0.191 (0.21) 0.0746 (0.22) 0.302* (0.18) 0.406** (0.20) 0.219 (0.18) 0.410** (0.17) 0.240 (0.19) 0.341 (0.24) 0.155 (0.21) 0.333 (0.23) -0.0877 (0.22) 0.00201 (0.047) -0.0247 (0.100) -0.170*** (0.064) 0.104 (0.19) -0.0828 (0.20) 0.109 (0.20) -0.302* (0.18) 0.00611 (0.048) -0.0227 (0.10) -0.166*** (0.064) -0.187 (0.21) 0.00474 (0.22) -0.406** (0.20) 0.00611 (0.048) -0.0227 (0.10) -0.166*** (0.064) 0.191 (0.21) -0.219 (0.18) 0.00611 (0.048) -0.0227 (0.10) -0.166*** (0.064) -0.410** (0.17) 0.00611 (0.048) -0.0227 (0.10) -0.166*** (0.064) 0.00611 (0.048) -0.0227 (0.10) -0.166*** (0.064) 1.248*** (0.25) 786 1.360*** (0.27) 765 1.464*** (0.30) 765 1.277*** (0.29) 765 1.468*** (0.28) 765 1.058*** (0.27) 765 Probit estimates with clustered standard errors in parentheses (state dummies included in all models) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 10