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FEWS NET FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK Global Weather Hazards Summary September 25 - October 1, 2015 Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America Africa Weather Hazards Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Seasonally Dry 1 2 1. Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall has led to saturated ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across the region during the next week, which is expected to sustain the risk of flooding. 3 4 5 2. Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Reduced rainfall is expected in this region during late-September. 3. While the recent increase in precipitation is expected to lead to more favorable ground conditions, a delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the June-September season may negatively impact cropping and pastoral conditions in the region. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 4. Despite recent increases in rainfall, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia. 5. Below-average rainfall during August and early September has led to increased moisture deficits in several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is forecast in the region during the next week. FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov, fewsnetinfo@fews.net, or 1-301-683-3424. Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm) ing the middle of September, return of enhanced West late seasonal age to above-average rains the received throughout Africa Valid: September 13 – September 19, 2015 fallearly was September. observed across portions of the Sahel and far western ng ca. According to satellite estimates and gauge reports, the highest Weather Hazards Summary September 25 - October 1, 2015 ekly precipitation accumulations (>75mm) were received across g the middle of September, the return of enhanced late seasonal sgeof Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm) tonorthern above-average rains received throughout Africaas Africa Overview all was observed across portions of the SahelLeone, andWest farLiberia, western as, throughout central Mali, Burkina Faso, and northern Ghana Valid: September 13 – September 19, 2015 g early September. a. According to satellite estimates and gauge reports, the highest Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm) Average to above-average rains throughout West Africa in early September Togo (Figure 1). An anomalously positioned ITF also resulted in ly precipitation accumulations (>75mm) were received across Valid: September 13-19, 2015 rainsofGuinea, and moisture more arid regions of Guinea-Bissau, Leone, asof geased thenorthern middle September, thethroughout return ofSierra enhanced lateLiberia, seasonal uritania, Mali, Niger, andMali, southern Algeria. Moderate to rainfall During mid-September, increased late seasonal rainfall fell across portions as, throughout central Burkina Faso, and northern Ghana l was observed across portions of the Sahel and farlight western ls were received in parts of Senegal, southern Niger and northern of the Sahel and far western Africa. According to satellite estimates and Togo (Figureto1). An anomalously positioned ITF alsothe resulted . According satellite estimates and gauge reports, highestin eria. Little to no seasonal rainfall was observed in parts of gauge reports, the highest weekly precipitation accumulations (>75mm) fell ased rains andaccumulations moisture throughout arid regions y precipitation (>75mm) more were received acrossof thern Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana. across northern parts of Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and itania, Mali, Niger, andGuinea-Bissau, southern Algeria. Moderate to Liberia, light rainfall of northern Guinea, Sierra Leone, as throughout central Mali, Burkina Faso, and northern Ghana received in parts of Senegal, southern Niger and northern s,were throughout central Mali, Burkina Faso, and northern Ghanaand Togo (Figure An ITFduring resulted in increased rains above-average rainfall in West Africa last week has ia. Little 1). to1). noanomalously-positioned seasonal rainfall was observed in parts ogo (Figure An anomalously positioned ITFthe also resulted inofthroughout more arid regions of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and southern Algeria. Moderate n associated with an enhanced precipitation regime throughout the ern Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana. sed rains and moisture throughout more arid regions of to light rainfall was observed in parts of Senegal, southern Niger and el this season. Several regions in Guinea, Mali, Liberia, Burkina ania, Mali, Niger, and southern Algeria. Moderate to light rainfall o, and Niger have experienced the wettest monsoon northern Nigeria, while littleone to noofseasonal rainfall was observed inFigure parts of 1: NOAA/CPC were received in parts of Senegal, southern Niger andweek northern above-average rainfall in West Africa during the last has sons over a 30 year satellite rainfall record, as the satellite southern Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana. a. Little towith noanseasonal was observed in parts the of associated enhancedrainfall precipitation regime throughout th mate totals have and registered in the top 97 percentile since late ern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana. l this season. Several regions in Guinea, Mali, Liberia, Burkina Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%) e (Figure 2). somerainfall of these anomalously wetthe areas werehas been TheAlthough above-average in West during last week , and Niger have experienced one of Africa the wettest monsoon Valid: June 22 – September 19, 2015 Figure 1: NOAA/CPC ceded by a associated delayed start of enhanced the seasonal rainfallregime whichthroughout helped tothe Sahel an precipitation ons over a 30rainfall yearwith satellite rainfall record, satellite bove-average in West Africa during the as lastthe week has gate early season dryness, persistence heavy rainfall since th of this season. Severalthe regions in Guinea, Mali, Liberia, Burkina Faso, and Niger ate totals have registered the top 97 regime percentile since late associated with an enhancedinprecipitation throughout the Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%) ust has sustained the risk for flooding and other adverse ground have experienced one of the wettest monsoon seasons over a 30-year (Figure 2). Although of these anomalously wet areas were this season. Severalsome regions in Guinea, Mali, Liberia, Burkina th Source:19, NOAA/CPC Valid: June 22 – September 2015 acts. Areassatellite registered above the 97 percentile are expected to record, as the satellite totals have registered in eded a delayed start of the seasonal which helped to Figure and byNiger have rainfall experienced one of rainfall theestimate wettest monsoon 1: NOAA/CPC Figure 2: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile ain most the at top risk97th forpercentile floodingsince throughout the remainder of late June 2). Although some of these ate early season dryness, the persistence of (Figure heavy rainfall since ns overas a the 30 monsoon year satellite rainfall record, aslate the satellite Valid: June 22 - September 19, 2015 tember begins its weakening by September th anomalously wet areas were preceded by a delayed start of the seasonal st has sustained the risk for flooding and other adverse ground ate totals have registered in the top 97 percentile since late into October. Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%) th rainfall, thesome persistence of97 heavy rainfall since sustained the risk percentile are expected to cts. Areas aboveofthe Figure 2). registered Although these anomalously wetAugust areashas were Valid: June 22 – September 19, 2015 flooding other adverse ground impacts. Areas registered in most atfor risk forand flooding throughout the remainder ded by a delayed start of the seasonal rainfall which helped toof above the the upcoming outlook period, rainfall forecasts suggest the 97th percentile are to remain most atrainfall risk for since flooding throughout ember the monsoon its weakening by late September te earlyasseason dryness,begins theexpected persistence of heavy ential for average to above-average rainfall across many saturated the remainder of September as the monsoon begins weakening ntohas October. st sustained the risk for flooding and other adverse ground by late ons in West Africa. andLocally heavy rainfall accumulations are th September intothe October. ts. Areas registered above 97 percentile are expected to ected throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso and nthemost at riskoutlook for flooding throughout the remainder of upcoming period, rainfall suggest the tral Nigeria duringthethe next seven days. forecasts Meanwhile suppressed upcoming rainfall forecasts suggest the potential for mberforasaverage theDuring monsoon begins week, its weakening by late September ntial to above-average rainfall across many saturated fall is forecast for toseveral anomalously dry regions of southern average above-average rainfall across many saturated regions in West to October. ns in West Africa. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are e d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin. Africa. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are expected throughout Guinea, cted throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso and central Nigeria during the next seven al Nigeria during the next seven days. Meanwhile suppressed he upcoming outlook period, rainfall forecasts suggest the days. Meanwhile reduced rainfall is forecast for several anomalously dry all several anomalously regions southern ialisforforecast averagefor to above-average rainfalldry across manyofsaturated regionsTogo of southern Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin. d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Benin. s in West Africa. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are Figure 2: NOAA/CPC hanced September rains observed in Liberia, GreaterBurkina Horn. Faso and ted throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, Increased September rains observed in Greater Horn l Nigeria during the next seven days. Meanwhile suppressed Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) week of for heavy, well-distributed was received across lther is forecast several anomalouslyrains dry regions of southern Source: NOAA/CPC September 1 – September 19, 2015 Another week ofwith heavy, well-distributed occurred across of Figure 2: Valid: NOAA/CPC ch northern EastTogo Africa suppressed rainsrains registered to themuch d’Ivoire, Ghana, andobserved Benin. Figure 3: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly nced September rains in Greater Horn. northern Africa, while below-average rains fell across southern regions. th. Many local areasEast in western, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea Valid: September 1-19, 2015 Many local areas in westernaand northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea and eastern Sudan have observed rapid strengthening of late Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) her ofeastern heavy, well-distributed was received across Sudan have arains rapid increase in late season moisture son week moisture surpluses, with observed the largest positive rainfall anomalies Valid: September 1 – September 19, 2015 northern East Africa with suppressed rains registered to the surpluses, withand the largest rainfall anomaliessince located in western ated in western Amhara Tigray positive provinces of Ethiopia the Figure 2: NOAA/CPC nced September rains observed inMuch Greater Horn. . Many areas in (Figure western, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea Amhara and Tigray provinces of Ethiopia since the beginning of September inning oflocal September 3). of the anomalously wet eastern Sudan have observed a rapid strengthening of late 3). Much of theto recent wet conditions are expected ditions as of(Figure late are expected helpanomalously mitigate dryness associated Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm) on with the largest positive anomalies era moisture week oftosurpluses, heavy, well-distributed rains wasdryness received help mitigate dryness associated with arainfall late start seasonal late start of seasonal rains, and long-term inofacross some of rains and Valid: September 1 – September 19, 2015 ed in western Amhara and provinces of registered Ethiopia since thein Ethiopia. northern East Africa with Tigray suppressed rains to the long-term dryness in some of the pastoral regions pastoral regions north-central Ethiopia. However, thisnorth-central change ning oflocal September (Figure 3). Much of the anomalously wet areas in Many areas inthis western, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea However, change in the monsoon circulation has left many monsoon circulation has left many areas towards the south tions as of late are expected to help mitigate dryness associated eastern Sudan have observed a rapid strengthening of late the south of rainfall and available moisture. Throughout leted of rainfall anddepleted available moisture. Throughout many local many ans late start local of seasonal rains, and long-term in has some of has been moisture surpluses, the largest positive rainfall anomalies partsEthiopia inwith southwestern Ethiopia anddryness South Sudan, rainfall in southwestern and South Sudan, rainfall been astoral regions north-central Ethiopia. However, this change in increase in d in western Amhara and Tigray provinces of Ethiopia since the consistentlysince below-average sinceleading mid-August, to a rapid sistently suppressed mid-August, to a leading rapid increase monsoon circulation has left many areas towards the south ning of September (Figure 3). Much of the anomalously wet moisture and increased concerns for available moisture moisture deficits, anddeficits increased concerns for available moisture for for cropping ted of rainfall andexpected available moisture. Throughout many local ions as of pastoral late toDuring help mitigate associated and are pastoral activities. During the next week, little to nolittle relieftois expected pping and activities. the nextdryness seven days, in Ethiopia and South Sudan, rainfall has been latesouthwestern start of rains, and dryness in some ofto forseasonal several anomalously drylong-term areas, according to precipitation forecasts. relief is expected for several anomalously dry areas according stently suppressed since mid-August, leading to a rapid increase astoral regions north-central Ethiopia. However, this change in Ethiopia, with cipitation forecasts. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast for northwestern oisture deficits, and increased for available forof Sudan and monsoon circulation has many towards the south northwestern Ethiopia, withleft lowconcerns rainfall totals for much low rainfall totals expected forareas much ofexpected southernmoisture Ethiopia, South Source: NOAA/CPC ping and pastoral activities. During the next seven days, little to ed of rainfall and available moisture. Throughout many local thern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda. Uganda. Figure 3: NOAA/CPC liefsouthwestern is expected for severaland anomalously dry areas in Ethiopia South Sudan, rainfallaccording has beento pitationsuppressed forecasts. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is forecast stently since mid-August, leading to a rapid increase Famine outlook Early Warning Systems Network 2 ote: The hazards map on page 1 is based on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts (up orthwestern Ethiopia, with low rainfall totals expected for much sture deficits, and increased concerns for available moisture forof eek). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions h ernobserved. Ethiopia, South Sudan and ng and pastoral During the polygons next seven to Figure NOAA/CPC en Theactivities. boundaries ofUganda. these aredays, only little approximate at this3:continental scale. This product does not reflect long ra ief is expected for several anomalously areas according to conditions. asonal climate forecasts or indicate current dry or projected food security Weather Hazards Summary September 25 - October 1, 2015 Central Asia Weather Hazards No hazards posted for Central Asia. Temperatures Temperatures averaged near or below-normal across Central Asia from September 13 to 19. Freezing temperatures were observed during this period across northeast Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of northeast Afghanistan and Tajikistan. During the next week, below-normal temperatures are expected to persist across northeast Kazakhstan. Minimum temperatures are forecast to range from -5 to 0 °C across northeast Kazakhstan and -10 to -5 °C across the higher elevations of northeast Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Precipitation Mostly dry weather prevailed across Central Asia from September 13 to 19 with light rainfall observed across Source: FEWS NET/NOAA northeast Kazakhstan, generally 5 mm or less. The CPC Unified Gauge analysis indicates that precipitation has averaged at or slightly above-normal across most of the region. However, moderate to large precipitation deficits are noted farther south in southern Pakistan and western India, which could be attributed to an early withdrawal of the Indian Monsoon. During the next week, the heaviest precipitation (more than 10 mm) is expected to be limited to northeast Kazakhstan. 3 Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards 1. Poorly-distributed and below-average Primera rainfall has led to significant long-term moisture deficits and crop losses across much of Central America. 2. Dry conditions have persisted through the beginning of the Postrera season in most areas. However, enough rain has been received to sustain Postrera cropping activities thus far. 4 1 1 2 No Hazards Posted for Central America 3. Consistently below-average seasonal rainfall has maintained moisture deficits and negatively impacted ground and cropping conditions throughout much of Hispaniola. After a bit of improvement in the southcentral regions, rainfall deficits remain particularly severe along the western coasts of Haiti and the eastern and northern coastal areas and the Punta Cana region of the Dominican Republic. 4. Poor rainfall distribution over the past several weeks has resulted in drought in the Sud-Est, Nord-Ouest, parts of the L’Artibonite departments of Haiti, and southwestern Dominican Republic. This has already reduced water availability, negatively impacted crops, killed livestock, and affected the livelihoods of many people. Famine Early Warning Systems Network Flooding Abnormal Dryness Drought Severe Drought Tropical Cyclone Potential Locust Outbreak Heavy Snow Abnormal Cold Abnormal Heat Source: FEWS NET/NOAA 3 hance ofWeather widespread heavy rain next week brings hope for some Hazards Summary September 25 - October 1, 2015 chance of widespread heavy rain next week brings hope for somelong-term long-termdryness drynessrelief relief thethe lastlast week, rainfall conditions mixed. Moderate toto locally heavy Central America andwere the Caribbean Overview ng week, rainfall conditions were mixed. Moderate locally heavyrains rainswere wereobserved observedacross acrossmost mostofofthe theregion, region,more morethan than100 10 cases. Areas along the western coast of Nicaragua and into central Guatemala received only light rains (<25mm) according e cases. Areas along the western coast of Nicaragua and into central Guatemala received only light rains (<25mm) according toto Thepositive chance ofrainfall widespread heavy rain next week brings hope for some long-term dryness relief tes. Generally anomalies were located over Honduras mates. Generally positive rainfall anomalies were located over Honduraswhile whileprimarily primarilybelow belownormal normalconditions conditionsexisted existedelsewhere. elsewhere.Over Ove cales, going back to the third dekad of June, the worst deficits are observed over western Nicaragua, central Honduras and central Gau scales, going back to the third dekad of June, the worst deficits are observed over western Nicaragua, central Honduras and central Ga During theareas past week, rainfall conditions were mixed. Moderate according to locally heavy rains were observedLesser across most of the region, ved rainfall in these has been less than 50% of climatology to TRMM estimates. long-term moisture defic erved rainfall in these areas has been less than 50% of climatology according to TRMM estimates. Lesser long-term moisture defi with some areas receiving morespread than 100mm. Areas along thevalues western coast of Nicaragua and into central Guatemala received to the s ous across Central America; with wide percent-of-normal than 80%. Underperforming rainfall, going uitous across Central America; with wide spread percent-of-normal valuesless less than 80%. Underperforming rainfall, goingback back to the only light rains (<25mm), according to TRMM estimates. Above-average rainfall fell over Honduras while primarily below-normal mera rainfall season, has ledled to to serious ill-effects forforcropping activities across the region. For some ofofthe hardest hit areas, almos Primera rainfall season, has serious ill-effects cropping activities across the region. For some the hardest hit almo conditions occurred elsewhere. Over longer timedry scales going back to thestill thirdbelow dekad average of June, the worst deficits arePostrera observedareas, a crop losses have been reported, especially in the corridor. Though in many areas, rainfall mera crop losses have been reported, especially in the dry corridor. Though still below average in many areas, Postrera rainfall has ha over western Nicaragua, central Honduras and central Guatemala, where rainfall has been less than 50% of climatology. Lesser nt forfor thethe first stages of of crop growth. cient first stages crop growth. long-term moisture deficits persist across Central America, with widespread percent-of-normal values less than 80%. Belowaverage rainfall since the start of the Primera rainfall season has led to serious negative effects for cropping activities. Though and points pread heavy rains are in in the forecast, leading to to near oror above-normal espread heavy rains are the forecast, leading near above-normalrainfall rainfallconditions conditionsover overthe thenext next77days daysfor forCosta CostaRica Rica and point still below average in many areas, Postrera rainfall has been sufficient for the first stages of crop growth. ds of of 150mm areare possible forfor many areas, especially wards 150mm possible many areas, especiallysouthern southernand andwestern westernGuatemala, Guatemala,where wherea abitbitofoflocalized localizedflooding floodingisisnot notout ou Widespread heavy rains are forecast for the upcoming 7 days, leading to nearsuppressed or above-normal rainfall conditions.forecast, Upwards on. Only Panama and portions of of eastern Nicaragua seem stion. Only Panama and portions eastern Nicaragua seemlikely likelytotoexperience experience suppressedrainfall. rainfall.Rainfall, Rainfall,as as forecast,would wouldbe beaah of 150mm are possible for many areas, especially southern and rainfall westernwill where localized flooding may occur. Only and water availability, butbut several sustained weeks of of above average before substantially alleviat s and water availability, several sustained weeks above average rainfallGuatemala, willbebenecessary necessary beforeconcerns concernsare are substantially allevia Panama and portions of eastern Nicaragua seem likely to experience below-average rainfall. The forecasted rainfall would help Week 1 Rainfall Total and Anomaly Forecast crop production and water availability, but sustained weeks of above-average rainfall Week 1 several Rainfall Total and Anomaly Forecast(mm) (mm)will be necessary before concerns September 2424 –– September are substantially alleviated. September September30, 30,2015 2015 Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) Valid: September 24-30, 2015 Figure 2: Seven-Day Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (mm) Valid: September 24-30, 2015 . Source: NOAA/CPC Figure Source NOAA / CPC Figure 1: 1: Source NOAA / CPC No end in sight to the pattern of abnormally dry weather Source: NOAA/CPC onscomments or comments about product be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424. or about this this product maymay be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424. Drier-than-normal conditions prevailed yet again across Hispaniola over the past 7 days. The heaviest rains fell over northwestern Dominican Republic and central Haiti. The southern tip of the Dominican Republic, as well as along the southern peninsula of Haiti, received the least rainfall this past week. Over the previous 90-day period (since June 24), rainfall ranges from near-normal in the center of Hispaniola to less than 50% of normal in coastal regions. The prolonged dryness continues to negatively impact ground conditions. Vegetation indices and WRSI indicate that conditions are continuing to degrade, especially in the North and East. During the coming week, rainfall is expected to be generally below average resulting from the presence of El Nino conditions. The GFS model indicates that the best chance for heavy rainfall this coming week is over the higher elevations of central Dominican Republic. Heavier showers are also possible in central Haiti. There is no threat from tropical cyclone activity during the upcoming week. ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4
