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FEWS NET
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Global Weather Hazards Summary
September 25 - October 1, 2015
Heavy rainfall expected to provide some long-term dryness relief in Central America
Africa Weather Hazards
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Seasonally Dry
1
2
1. Significantly aboveaverage seasonal rainfall
has led to saturated ground
conditions in several regions
of West Africa. Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue
across the region during the next week, which is
expected to sustain the risk of flooding.
3
4
5
2. Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote
d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid
increase in moisture deficits and a degradation of ground
conditions. Reduced rainfall is expected in this region
during late-September.
3. While the recent increase in precipitation is expected
to lead to more favorable ground conditions, a delayed
onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the
June-September season may negatively impact cropping and
pastoral conditions in the region.
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
4. Despite recent increases in rainfall, the much delayed start to the
rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and led to livestock death across
parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.
5. Below-average rainfall during August and early September has led to increased moisture deficits in several provinces in
southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is forecast in the region during the next week.
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for
International Development or the United States Government.The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by
FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries
concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov, fewsnetinfo@fews.net, or 1-301-683-3424.
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
ing the
middle of September,
return of
enhanced West
late seasonal
age
to above-average
rains the
received
throughout
Africa
Valid: September 13 – September 19, 2015
fallearly
was September.
observed across portions of the Sahel and far western
ng
ca. According
to satellite
estimates
and gauge reports, the highest
Weather
Hazards
Summary
September 25 - October 1, 2015
ekly
precipitation
accumulations
(>75mm)
were
received
across
g the middle of September, the return of enhanced late seasonal
sgeof
Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau,
Sierra
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
tonorthern
above-average
rains
received
throughout
Africaas
Africa
Overview
all
was
observed
across
portions
of the
SahelLeone,
andWest
farLiberia,
western
as,
throughout
central
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
and
northern
Ghana
Valid:
September 13 – September 19, 2015
g
early
September.
a. According to satellite estimates and gauge reports, the highest
Figure 1: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall (mm)
Average
to
above-average
rains
throughout
West
Africa
in
early
September
Togo
(Figure
1).
An
anomalously
positioned
ITF
also
resulted
in
ly precipitation accumulations (>75mm) were received across
Valid: September 13-19, 2015
rainsofGuinea,
and
moisture
more
arid
regions
of
Guinea-Bissau,
Leone,
asof
geased
thenorthern
middle
September,
thethroughout
return ofSierra
enhanced
lateLiberia,
seasonal
uritania,
Mali,
Niger,
andMali,
southern
Algeria.
Moderate
to
rainfall
During
mid-September,
increased
late
seasonal
rainfall
fell
across portions
as,
throughout
central
Burkina
Faso,
and
northern
Ghana
l was
observed
across
portions
of the
Sahel
and
farlight
western
ls
were
received
in
parts
of
Senegal,
southern
Niger
and
northern
of
the
Sahel
and
far
western
Africa.
According
to
satellite
estimates
and
Togo
(Figureto1).
An anomalously
positioned
ITF alsothe
resulted
. According
satellite
estimates and
gauge reports,
highestin
eria.
Little
to
no
seasonal
rainfall
was
observed
in
parts
of
gauge
reports,
the
highest
weekly
precipitation
accumulations
(>75mm)
fell
ased
rains andaccumulations
moisture throughout
arid regions
y precipitation
(>75mm) more
were received
acrossof
thern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
and
Ghana.
across
northern
parts
of
Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau,
Sierra
Leone,
Liberia,
and
itania,
Mali, Niger,
andGuinea-Bissau,
southern Algeria.
Moderate
to Liberia,
light rainfall
of northern
Guinea,
Sierra
Leone,
as
throughout
central
Mali, Burkina
Faso,
and
northern
Ghana
received
in parts
of Senegal,
southern
Niger
and northern
s,were
throughout
central
Mali,
Burkina
Faso,
and
northern
Ghanaand Togo (Figure
An
ITFduring
resulted
in increased
rains
above-average
rainfall
in West
Africa
last
week
has
ia.
Little 1).
to1).
noanomalously-positioned
seasonal
rainfall
was
observed
in
parts
ogo
(Figure
An
anomalously
positioned
ITFthe
also
resulted
inofthroughout
more
arid
regions
of
Mauritania,
Mali,
Niger,
and
southern
Algeria.
Moderate
n
associated
with
an
enhanced
precipitation
regime
throughout
the
ern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
and
Ghana.
sed rains and moisture throughout more arid regions of
to
light
rainfall
was
observed
in
parts
of
Senegal,
southern
Niger
and
el
this
season.
Several
regions
in
Guinea,
Mali,
Liberia,
Burkina
ania, Mali, Niger, and southern Algeria. Moderate to light rainfall
o,
and
Niger
have
experienced
the
wettest
monsoon
northern
Nigeria,
while littleone
to noofseasonal
rainfall
was
observed inFigure
parts of 1: NOAA/CPC
were
received
in
parts
of Senegal,
southern
Niger
andweek
northern
above-average
rainfall
in
West
Africa
during
the
last
has
sons
over
a
30
year
satellite
rainfall
record,
as
the
satellite
southern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
and
Ghana.
a.
Little towith
noanseasonal
was observed
in parts the
of
associated
enhancedrainfall
precipitation
regime throughout
th
mate
totals
have and
registered
in the top 97 percentile since late
ern
Cote
d’Ivoire,
Ghana.
l this
season.
Several
regions in Guinea, Mali, Liberia, Burkina
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%)
e (Figure 2).
somerainfall
of these
anomalously
wetthe
areas
werehas been
TheAlthough
above-average
in West
during
last week
, and Niger
have
experienced
one
of Africa
the wettest
monsoon
Valid: June 22 – September 19, 2015
Figure
1:
NOAA/CPC
ceded by a associated
delayed start
of enhanced
the seasonal
rainfallregime
whichthroughout
helped tothe Sahel
an
precipitation
ons
over a 30rainfall
yearwith
satellite
rainfall
record,
satellite
bove-average
in
West Africa
during
the as
lastthe
week
has
gate early season
dryness,
persistence
heavy
rainfall
since
th of
this season.
Severalthe
regions
in Guinea,
Mali,
Liberia,
Burkina
Faso, and Niger
ate totals have
registered
the top
97 regime
percentile
since
late
associated
with an
enhancedinprecipitation
throughout
the
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%)
ust has sustained
the
risk
for
flooding
and
other
adverse
ground
have
experienced
one
of
the
wettest
monsoon
seasons
over
a 30-year
(Figure
2). Although
of these
anomalously
wet areas
were
this season.
Severalsome
regions
in Guinea,
Mali, Liberia,
Burkina
th
Source:19,
NOAA/CPC
Valid: June 22 – September
2015
acts. Areassatellite
registered
above
the
97
percentile
are
expected
to
record,
as the satellite
totals
have registered
in
eded
a delayed
start
of
the seasonal
which
helped
to Figure
and byNiger
have rainfall
experienced
one of rainfall
theestimate
wettest
monsoon
1:
NOAA/CPC
Figure
2:
Satellite-Estimated
Rainfall
Percentile
ain most the
at top
risk97th
forpercentile
floodingsince
throughout
the
remainder
of
late June
2).
Although
some of these
ate
early
season
dryness,
the persistence
of (Figure
heavy
rainfall
since
ns
overas
a the
30 monsoon
year
satellite
rainfall
record,
aslate
the
satellite
Valid: June 22 - September 19, 2015
tember
begins
its weakening
by
September
th
anomalously
wet
areas
were
preceded
by
a
delayed
start
of
the seasonal
st has
sustained
the risk for
flooding
and
other
adverse
ground
ate
totals
have
registered
in
the
top
97
percentile
since
late
into October.
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Percentile (%)
th
rainfall,
thesome
persistence
of97
heavy
rainfall since
sustained
the risk
percentile
are
expected
to
cts.
Areas
aboveofthe
Figure
2). registered
Although
these
anomalously
wetAugust
areashas
were
Valid: June 22 – September 19, 2015
flooding
other
adverse
ground
impacts.
Areas
registered
in most
atfor risk
forand
flooding
throughout
the
remainder
ded
by a delayed
start
of
the seasonal
rainfall
which
helped
toof above the
the
upcoming
outlook
period,
rainfall
forecasts
suggest
the
97th
percentile
are
to remain
most
atrainfall
risk
for since
flooding throughout
ember
the
monsoon
its weakening
by late
September
te earlyasseason
dryness,begins
theexpected
persistence
of heavy
ential
for
average
to
above-average
rainfall
across
many
saturated
the
remainder
of
September
as
the
monsoon
begins
weakening
ntohas
October.
st
sustained the risk for flooding and other adverse ground by late
ons in West
Africa. andLocally
heavy
rainfall accumulations are
th
September
intothe
October.
ts. Areas registered
above
97 percentile are expected to
ected throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso and
nthemost
at riskoutlook
for flooding
throughout
the remainder
of
upcoming
period,
rainfall
suggest
the
tral Nigeria
duringthethe
next
seven
days. forecasts
Meanwhile
suppressed
upcoming
rainfall
forecasts
suggest
the potential for
mberforasaverage
theDuring
monsoon
begins week,
its weakening
by late
September
ntial
to
above-average
rainfall
across
many
saturated
fall is forecast
for toseveral
anomalously
dry regions
of southern
average
above-average
rainfall across
many saturated
regions in West
to October.
ns
in West
Africa.
Locally
heavy rainfall accumulations are
e
d’Ivoire,
Ghana,
Togo
and
Benin.
Africa. Locally heavy rainfall accumulations are expected throughout Guinea,
cted throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Burkina Faso and
Sierra Leone,
Liberia,
Burkina
Faso and
central Nigeria
during the next seven
al Nigeria
during
the next
seven
days.
Meanwhile
suppressed
he
upcoming
outlook
period,
rainfall
forecasts
suggest
the
days.
Meanwhile
reduced
rainfall
is
forecast
for
several
anomalously dry
all
several anomalously
regions
southern
ialisforforecast
averagefor
to above-average
rainfalldry
across
manyofsaturated
regionsTogo
of southern
Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin.
d’Ivoire,
Ghana,
and Benin.
s in West
Africa. Locally
heavy rainfall accumulations are
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
hanced
September
rains
observed
in Liberia,
GreaterBurkina
Horn. Faso and
ted throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone,
Increased September rains observed in Greater Horn
l Nigeria during the next seven days. Meanwhile suppressed
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
week of for
heavy,
well-distributed
was received
across
lther
is forecast
several
anomalouslyrains
dry regions
of southern
Source: NOAA/CPC
September 1 – September
19, 2015
Another
week ofwith
heavy,
well-distributed
occurred across
of
Figure
2: Valid:
NOAA/CPC
ch northern
EastTogo
Africa
suppressed
rainsrains
registered
to themuch
d’Ivoire,
Ghana,
andobserved
Benin.
Figure
3: Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly
nced September
rains
in
Greater
Horn.
northern
Africa, while
below-average
rains
fell across
southern regions.
th. Many local
areasEast
in western,
northern
Ethiopia,
Djibouti,
Eritrea
Valid: September 1-19, 2015
Many local
areas
in westernaand
northern
Ethiopia, Djibouti,
Eritrea and
eastern Sudan
have
observed
rapid
strengthening
of late
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
her
ofeastern
heavy,
well-distributed
was
received
across
Sudan
have
arains
rapid
increase
in late
season
moisture
son week
moisture
surpluses,
with observed
the largest
positive
rainfall
anomalies
Valid: September 1 – September 19, 2015
northern
East
Africa
with
suppressed
rains
registered
to the
surpluses,
withand
the largest
rainfall
anomaliessince
located
in western
ated in western
Amhara
Tigray positive
provinces
of Ethiopia
the
Figure 2: NOAA/CPC
nced
September
rains
observed
inMuch
Greater
Horn.
. Many
areas
in (Figure
western,
northern
Ethiopia,
Djibouti,
Eritrea
Amhara
and
Tigray
provinces
of Ethiopia
since
the beginning
of September
inning
oflocal
September
3).
of the
anomalously
wet
eastern
Sudan
have
observed
a
rapid
strengthening
of
late
3). Much
of theto
recent
wet conditions
are expected
ditions as of(Figure
late are
expected
helpanomalously
mitigate dryness
associated
Satellite-Estimated Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
on
with
the largest
positive
anomalies
era moisture
week
oftosurpluses,
heavy,
well-distributed
rains
wasdryness
received
help
mitigate
dryness
associated
with
arainfall
late start
seasonal
late start
of
seasonal
rains,
and
long-term
inofacross
some
of rains and
Valid: September 1 – September 19, 2015
ed
in western
Amhara
and
provinces
of registered
Ethiopia
since
thein Ethiopia.
northern
East
Africa
with Tigray
suppressed
rains
to the
long-term
dryness
in
some
of the pastoral
regions
pastoral
regions
north-central
Ethiopia.
However,
thisnorth-central
change
ning
oflocal
September
(Figure
3).
Much
of the
anomalously
wet areas in
Many
areas inthis
western,
northern
Ethiopia,
Djibouti,
Eritrea
However,
change
in
the
monsoon
circulation
has
left
many
monsoon
circulation
has
left
many
areas
towards
the
south
tions
as
of
late
are
expected
to
help
mitigate
dryness
associated
eastern
Sudan
have
observed
a
rapid
strengthening
of
late
the south
of rainfall
and available
moisture.
Throughout
leted of rainfall
anddepleted
available
moisture.
Throughout
many
local many
ans late
start local
of seasonal
rains,
and
long-term
in has
some
of has been
moisture
surpluses,
the
largest
positive
rainfall
anomalies
partsEthiopia
inwith
southwestern
Ethiopia
anddryness
South
Sudan,
rainfall
in southwestern
and
South
Sudan,
rainfall
been
astoral
regions
north-central
Ethiopia.
However,
this
change
in increase in
d
in
western
Amhara
and
Tigray
provinces
of
Ethiopia
since
the
consistentlysince
below-average
sinceleading
mid-August,
to a rapid
sistently suppressed
mid-August,
to a leading
rapid increase
monsoon
circulation
has
left
many
areas
towards
the
south
ning
of
September
(Figure
3).
Much
of
the
anomalously
wet
moisture
and increased
concerns
for available
moisture
moisture deficits,
anddeficits
increased
concerns
for available
moisture
for for cropping
ted of
rainfall
andexpected
available
moisture.
Throughout
many
local
ions
as
of pastoral
late
toDuring
help mitigate
associated
and are
pastoral
activities.
During
the next
week,
little
to nolittle
relieftois expected
pping
and
activities.
the
nextdryness
seven
days,
in
Ethiopia
and
South
Sudan,
rainfall
has
been
latesouthwestern
start
of
rains,
and
dryness
in
some
ofto
forseasonal
several
anomalously
drylong-term
areas,
according
to precipitation
forecasts.
relief
is
expected
for
several
anomalously
dry
areas
according
stently
suppressed
since
mid-August,
leading
to
a
rapid
increase
astoral
regions
north-central
Ethiopia.
However,
this
change
in Ethiopia, with
cipitation forecasts.
Moderate
to locally
heavy
rainfall
is forecast
Moderate to
locally heavy
rainfall is
forecast
for northwestern
oisture
deficits,
and increased
for available
forof Sudan and
monsoon
circulation
has
many
towards
the
south
northwestern
Ethiopia,
withleft
lowconcerns
rainfall
totals
for much
low
rainfall
totals
expected
forareas
much
ofexpected
southernmoisture
Ethiopia,
South
Source: NOAA/CPC
ping
and
pastoral
activities.
During
the
next
seven
days,
little
to
ed
of
rainfall
and
available
moisture.
Throughout
many
local
thern Ethiopia,
South Sudan and Uganda.
Uganda.
Figure 3: NOAA/CPC
liefsouthwestern
is expected for
severaland
anomalously
dry areas
in
Ethiopia
South Sudan,
rainfallaccording
has beento
pitationsuppressed
forecasts.
Moderate
to
locally
heavy
rainfall
is
forecast
stently
since
mid-August,
leading
to
a
rapid
increase
Famine outlook
Early Warning
Systems
Network
2
ote: The hazards
map on page
1 is based
on current weather/climate information and short and medium range weather forecasts
(up
orthwestern
Ethiopia,
with
low
rainfall
totals
expected
for
much
sture
deficits,
and
increased
concerns
for
available
moisture
forof
eek). It assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.
Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions h
ernobserved.
Ethiopia,
South
Sudan and
ng
and
pastoral
During
the polygons
next seven
to
Figure
NOAA/CPC
en
Theactivities.
boundaries
ofUganda.
these
aredays,
only little
approximate
at this3:continental
scale. This product does not reflect long ra
ief is expected
for several
anomalously
areas according
to conditions.
asonal
climate forecasts
or indicate
current dry
or projected
food security
Weather Hazards Summary
September 25 - October 1, 2015
Central Asia Weather Hazards
No hazards posted for Central Asia.
Temperatures
Temperatures averaged near or below-normal across
Central Asia from September 13 to 19. Freezing
temperatures were observed during this period across
northeast Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of
northeast Afghanistan and Tajikistan. During the next
week, below-normal temperatures are expected
to persist across northeast Kazakhstan. Minimum
temperatures are forecast to range from -5 to 0 °C
across northeast Kazakhstan and -10 to -5 °C across the
higher elevations of northeast Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan,
and Tajikistan
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Precipitation
Mostly dry weather prevailed across Central Asia from
September 13 to 19 with light rainfall observed across
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
northeast Kazakhstan, generally 5 mm or less. The CPC
Unified Gauge analysis indicates that precipitation has
averaged at or slightly above-normal across most of the region. However, moderate to large precipitation deficits are noted
farther south in southern Pakistan and western India, which could be attributed to an early withdrawal of the Indian Monsoon.
During the next week, the heaviest precipitation (more than 10 mm) is expected to be limited to northeast Kazakhstan.
3
Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards
1. Poorly-distributed and below-average Primera
rainfall has led to significant long-term
moisture deficits and crop losses across much
of Central America.
2. Dry conditions have persisted through the
beginning of the Postrera season in most
areas. However, enough rain has been
received to sustain Postrera cropping activities
thus far.
4
1
1
2
No Hazards
Posted for
Central America
3. Consistently below-average seasonal rainfall has maintained moisture
deficits and negatively impacted ground and cropping conditions
throughout much of Hispaniola. After a bit of improvement in the southcentral regions, rainfall deficits remain particularly severe along the western
coasts of Haiti and the eastern and northern coastal areas and the Punta Cana
region of the Dominican Republic.
4. Poor rainfall distribution over the past several weeks has resulted in drought in the
Sud-Est, Nord-Ouest, parts of the L’Artibonite departments of Haiti, and southwestern
Dominican Republic. This has already reduced water availability, negatively impacted crops,
killed livestock, and affected the livelihoods of many people.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Flooding
Abnormal Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Tropical Cyclone
Potential Locust Outbreak
Heavy Snow
Abnormal Cold
Abnormal Heat
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
3
hance
ofWeather
widespread
heavy
rain
next
week
brings
hope
for
some
Hazards
Summary
September 25 - October 1, 2015
chance
of
widespread
heavy
rain
next
week
brings
hope
for
somelong-term
long-termdryness
drynessrelief
relief
thethe
lastlast
week,
rainfall
conditions
mixed.
Moderate
toto
locally
heavy
Central
America
andwere
the
Caribbean
Overview
ng
week,
rainfall
conditions
were
mixed.
Moderate
locally
heavyrains
rainswere
wereobserved
observedacross
acrossmost
mostofofthe
theregion,
region,more
morethan
than100
10
cases.
Areas
along
the
western
coast
of
Nicaragua
and
into
central
Guatemala
received
only
light
rains
(<25mm)
according
e cases. Areas along the western coast of Nicaragua and into central Guatemala received only light rains (<25mm) according toto
Thepositive
chance ofrainfall
widespread
heavy rain
next
week brings
hope
for some long-term
dryness relief
tes. Generally
anomalies
were
located
over
Honduras
mates.
Generally
positive rainfall
anomalies
were
located
over
Honduraswhile
whileprimarily
primarilybelow
belownormal
normalconditions
conditionsexisted
existedelsewhere.
elsewhere.Over
Ove
cales,
going
back
to
the
third
dekad
of
June,
the
worst
deficits
are
observed
over
western
Nicaragua,
central
Honduras
and
central
Gau
scales, going
back
to
the
third
dekad
of
June,
the
worst
deficits
are
observed
over
western
Nicaragua,
central
Honduras
and
central
Ga
During
theareas
past week,
rainfall
conditions
were
mixed.
Moderate according
to locally heavy
rains were
observedLesser
across most
of the region,
ved
rainfall
in
these
has
been
less
than
50%
of
climatology
to
TRMM
estimates.
long-term
moisture
defic
erved rainfall
in
these
areas
has
been
less
than
50%
of
climatology
according
to
TRMM
estimates.
Lesser
long-term
moisture
defi
with some
areas receiving
morespread
than 100mm.
Areas along thevalues
western
coast
of Nicaragua
and into central Guatemala
received to the s
ous
across
Central
America;
with
wide
percent-of-normal
than
80%.
Underperforming
rainfall,
going
uitous
across
Central
America;
with
wide spread
percent-of-normal
valuesless
less
than
80%.
Underperforming
rainfall,
goingback
back to the
only
light
rains
(<25mm),
according
to
TRMM
estimates.
Above-average
rainfall
fell
over
Honduras
while
primarily
below-normal
mera rainfall
season,
has
ledled
to to
serious
ill-effects
forforcropping
activities
across
the
region.
For
some
ofofthe
hardest
hit
areas,
almos
Primera
rainfall
season,
has
serious
ill-effects
cropping
activities
across
the
region.
For
some
the
hardest
hit
almo
conditions
occurred
elsewhere.
Over longer
timedry
scales
going back
to thestill
thirdbelow
dekad average
of June, the
worst
deficits
arePostrera
observedareas,
a
crop
losses
have
been
reported,
especially
in
the
corridor.
Though
in
many
areas,
rainfall
mera crop losses have been reported, especially in the dry corridor. Though still below average in many areas, Postrera rainfall has
ha
over
western
Nicaragua,
central Honduras and central Guatemala, where rainfall has been less than 50% of climatology. Lesser
nt forfor
thethe
first
stages
of of
crop
growth.
cient
first
stages
crop
growth.
long-term moisture deficits persist across Central America, with widespread percent-of-normal values less than 80%. Belowaverage
rainfall
since
the start
of the Primera
rainfall
season has led to serious
negative effects
for cropping
activities.
Though and points
pread
heavy
rains
are
in in
the
forecast,
leading
to to
near
oror
above-normal
espread
heavy
rains
are
the
forecast,
leading
near
above-normalrainfall
rainfallconditions
conditionsover
overthe
thenext
next77days
daysfor
forCosta
CostaRica
Rica and point
still
below
average
in
many
areas,
Postrera
rainfall
has
been
sufficient
for
the
first
stages
of
crop
growth.
ds of of
150mm
areare
possible
forfor
many
areas,
especially
wards
150mm
possible
many
areas,
especiallysouthern
southernand
andwestern
westernGuatemala,
Guatemala,where
wherea abitbitofoflocalized
localizedflooding
floodingisisnot
notout
ou
Widespread
heavy rains
are
forecast
for the upcoming
7 days,
leading to nearsuppressed
or above-normal rainfall
conditions.forecast,
Upwards
on.
Only
Panama
and
portions
of of
eastern
Nicaragua
seem
stion.
Only
Panama
and
portions
eastern
Nicaragua
seemlikely
likelytotoexperience
experience suppressedrainfall.
rainfall.Rainfall,
Rainfall,as
as forecast,would
wouldbe
beaah
of 150mm are
possible
for
many areas,
especially
southern
and rainfall
westernwill
where localized
flooding may
occur.
Only
and
water
availability,
butbut
several
sustained
weeks
of of
above
average
before
substantially
alleviat
s and
water
availability,
several
sustained
weeks
above
average
rainfallGuatemala,
willbebenecessary
necessary
beforeconcerns
concernsare
are
substantially
allevia
Panama and portions of eastern Nicaragua seem likely to experience below-average rainfall. The forecasted rainfall would help
Week
1 Rainfall
Total
and
Anomaly
Forecast
crop production and water availability,
but
sustained
weeks
of above-average
rainfall
Week
1 several
Rainfall
Total
and
Anomaly
Forecast(mm)
(mm)will be necessary before concerns
September
2424
––
September
are substantially alleviated.
September
September30,
30,2015
2015
Figure 1: Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm)
Valid: September 24-30, 2015
Figure 2: Seven-Day Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (mm)
Valid: September 24-30, 2015
.
Source: NOAA/CPC
Figure
Source
NOAA
/ CPC
Figure
1: 1:
Source
NOAA
/ CPC
No end in sight to the pattern of abnormally dry weather
Source: NOAA/CPC
onscomments
or comments
about
product
be directed
to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov
or 1-301-683-3424.
or
about
this this
product
maymay
be directed
to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov
or 1-301-683-3424.
Drier-than-normal
conditions
prevailed yet again
across Hispaniola over the past 7 days. The heaviest rains fell over northwestern
Dominican Republic and central Haiti. The southern tip of the Dominican Republic, as well as along the southern peninsula of Haiti,
received the least rainfall this past week. Over the previous 90-day period (since June 24), rainfall ranges from near-normal in the
center of Hispaniola to less than 50% of normal in coastal regions. The prolonged dryness continues to negatively impact ground
conditions. Vegetation indices and WRSI indicate that conditions are continuing to degrade, especially in the North and East.
During the coming week, rainfall is expected to be generally below average resulting from the presence of El Nino conditions. The
GFS model indicates that the best chance for heavy rainfall this coming week is over the higher elevations of central Dominican
Republic. Heavier showers are also possible in central Haiti. There is no threat from tropical cyclone activity during the upcoming
week.
ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDS
Hazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and
pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at
this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4
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