° 1 2 3 4 5 6 Rk U1 ,U 2 , ,U n n P(U1 U n / ) = P(U j / ) j =1 7 P( ) :[, ] [0,1] P( ) = P(U = 1/ ) 8 n CCT = Pi ( ) i =1 θ 1 P( X ij x / ) 2 v a j (i b j 1 j ln xij k j xij v e t2 2 dt ) α m a MLE (i ) j 1 2 j zij b j j m j 1 SE ( j ) 2 j 1 m j 1 2 j 9 X mk zmk X mk E ( X m / k ) V( X m / k ) Nk Nk 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 o o o o o o o 20 o o o α α α 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29