Exit Poll - University of Southern California

RETURN TO LIST OF STAT SHEETS
L
LOS
OS A
ANGELES
NGELES T
TIMES
IMES P
POLL
OLL
Study #413 / Exit Poll
California Primary Election
June 2, 1998
®
The Times Poll / CNN interviewed 5,143 voters as they left 99 polling places across California June 2.
The margin of sampling error for all voters is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
For subgroups the error margin may vary.
J. Is this the first time you have voted in an election in California?
(IF NOT) Is this the first time you have voted in a primary election
in California?
GUIDE TO COLUMN HEADINGS
ALL
DEM
IND
REP
WHT
BLK
LAT
ASN
All voters
Registered Democrats
Registered independents (declined-to-state)
Registered Republicans
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
This is the first time I have
voted in California
I have voted in California
before, but this is the first
time in a primary
I have voted in a California
primary before
NOTES
• All answer frequencies are given in percentages.
• “ – ” indicates less than 0.5%
• Totals may exceed 100% in questions where more than one response
was accepted. Totals may be less than 100% where some candidates,
voter groups or answer categories are not shown.
• Questions not displayed are used for classification purposes.
E. In the primary election for governor, did you just vote for:
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Al Checchi (D)
Gray Davis (D)
Jane Harman (D)
Dan Lungren (R)
Other candidate
13
35
12
34
6
16
52
18
9
5
13
42
15
21
9
7
13
5
70
5
9
30
11
43
7
17
53
17
9
4
30
36
11
17
6
14
36
10
39
1
F. In the primary election for U.S. senator, did you just vote for:
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Barbara Boxer (D)
Matt Fong (R)
Darrell Issa (R)
Other candidate
44
22
19
15
73
10
5
12
51
22
13
14
10
39
36
15
35
26
24
15
78
8
3
11
57
11
11
21
34
50
9
7
G. In the primary election for attorney general, did you just vote
for:
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Charles M. Calderon (D)
Bill Lockyer (D)
Lynn Schenk (D)
Mike Capizzi (R)
Dave Stirling (R)
Other candidate
12
24
13
15
29
7
20
39
18
5
9
9
16
22
17
12
22
11
2
5
4
27
57
5
7
19
10
19
37
8
15
40
22
3
9
11
34
24
11
8
13
10
12
23
17
21
25
2
4
4
9
3
3
5 12
8
9 10 18
4
6 13 17 12
87 86 73 93 91 82 71 80
K. As you may know, this is California’s first blanket or open primary in which voters may vote for any candidate running for office
regardless of party affiliation. Do you think: (ACCEPTED ALL
THAT APPLY)
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
The open primary allows me to
vote for a candidate of my
choice even if he orsheisnot
inmyparty
60 59 59 61 62 58 56 53
The open primary is fairer
because all voters can vote in
candidate races
31 32 33 29 30 35 34 37
In a primary, only Democrats
should vote for Democrats, etc. 14 15 12 16 15 16 10 11
Ballot was too confusing/
List of names too long
8 9 8 8 8 10 8 9
None of the above
4 3 7 3 3 5 4 5
L. Which races or ballot initiatives, if any, particularly motivated
you to turn out to vote today? (ACCEPTED UP TO TWO
RESPONSES)
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Governor’s race
Prop. 227 (Bilingual education)
Prop. 226 (Union dues for
political contributions)
U.S. Senate race
Prop. 223 (School spending
limits on administration)
Other races or initiatives
Interested in everything on ballot
Nothing in particular
40 47 34 34 38 47 42 40
27 26 28 28 27 18 39 36
21 22 21 21 21 24 24 16
13 11 11 15 14 8 10 11
9 9 7 8 8 7 10 12
4 4 4 4 4 5 3 6
26 22 28 30 28 25 17 13
9 9 16 9 10 10 7 14
M. How long ago did you finally decide how you would vote for
governor today?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
H. How did you just vote on Proposition 226 (Union dues)?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Voted yes
Voted no
47
53
28
72
45
55
72
28
55
45
31
69
25
75
48
52
Today/Yesterday
Over the weekend or
last week
Before last week
I. How did you just vote on Proposition 227 (Bilingual education)?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Voted yes
Voted no
61
39
47
53
© Los Angeles Times 1998. All rights reserved.
59
41
77
23
67
33
48
52
37
63
57
43
Today
Yesterday
Over the weekend
During last week
Earlier in May
Earlier in April
Earlier in March
Before then
16
18
22
12
15
20
18
21
21
63
21
61
21
57
19
69
21
64
16
64
21
61
27
52
CHECCHI
VOTERS
DAVIS
VOTERS
13
5
8
14
27
15
8
10
9
7
9
14
27
10
9
15
Los Angeles Times/CNN Exit Poll, California Primary; June 2, 1998
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
15
12
11
15
21
12
6
8
6
5
6
11
21
11
11
29
Page 1
N. If you voted for governor today, what did you most like about
your gubernatorial choice? (ACCEPTED UP TO TWO RESPONSES)
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Hastheexperiencetobegovernor
Has strong leadership qualities
Best alternative of all candidates
running for governor
Has a clear vision for
California’s future
Has honesty and integrity
Cares about people like me
Can win in November
Has new ideas
Not beholden to special interests
Used own money for campaign
None of the above
38 41 38 36 40 37 32 34
23 20 15 28 24 19 21 28
19 18 25 20 22 15 12 14
17 16 21 16 15 16 22 23
14 12 11 19 16 8 12 20
13 18 14 8 10 24 22 13
7 7 6 9 8 6 6 9
6 7 7 4 6 6 7 6
6 6 5 6 7 5 6 3
3 3 4 2 2 3 4 1
7 5 7 7 6 9 3 3
P. If you voted for governor today, which issues, if any, were most
important to you in deciding how to vote? (ACCEPTED UP TO TWO
RESPONSES)
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Education
Crime
Taxes
The economy and jobs
Illegal immigration
Morality/Family issues
Health care
The state budget
The environment
Abortion
Race relations
None of the above
CHECCHI DAVIS HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS
Hastheexperiencetobegovernor
Has strong leadership qualities
Best alternative of all candidates
running for governor
Has a clear vision for California’s future
Has honesty and integrity
Cares about people like me
Can win in November
Has new ideas
Not beholden to special interests
Used own money for campaign
None of the above
14
25
60
15
18
30
36
29
9
19
10
23
3
16
13
11
7
18
15
10
15
7
2
4
2
5
22
21
14
17
5
10
5
2
10
22
16
21
7
10
3
4
1
6
O. If you voted for governor today, which of these things, if any, had
a major influence on your vote? (ACCEPTED UP TO TWO
RESPONSES)
25
7 16 49 30
50
25
19
16
7
6
15
7
6
4
6
7
DAVIS
VOTERS
CHECCHI
VOTERS
Education
Crime
Taxes
The economy and jobs
Illegal immigration
Morality/Family issues
Health care
The state budget
The environment
Abortion
Race relations
None of the above
39
26
21
18
8
14
9
7
5
4
7
11
51
27
22
17
10
7
11
6
2
2
6
5
35
33
28
12
16
17
5
8
2
7
1
7
41
29
23
14
12
12
10
8
6
7
2
7
40
23
23
19
5
7
10
7
1
2
14
11
56
28
19
16
6
8
9
6
4
2
6
5
43
35
30
14
11
3
10
10
3
2
6
5
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
50
24
17
18
7
5
11
10
7
3
7
9
53
26
19
14
4
8
20
4
6
7
5
5
31
37
31
11
16
19
4
7
2
7
1
6
Q. As of today, what is your impression of Al Checchi?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Lungren’s experience as
attorney general
My candidate’s position
on crime
My candidate’s position
on education
Davis’ experience as
lieutenant governor
My candidate has more years of
experience in elected office
Negative campaigning by
the other candidates
Checchi’s experience as a
successful businessman
Harman’s mix of political and
business experience
Harman is a woman
None of the above
43
28
23
15
11
11
10
7
5
5
4
7
Favorable
Unfavorable
8 14 28
24 19 18 30 26 16 23 26
33
67
37
63
37
63
CHECCHI
VOTERS
DAVIS
VOTERS
95
5
23
77
27
73
28
72
46
54
52
48
34
66
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
22 27 20 16 19 25 31 24
Favorable
Unfavorable
24
76
22
78
22 33 27
9 19 36 23 24
R. As of today, what is your impression of Gray Davis?
11 13 11
9
10 12 13
9 12
7
5
7
5
7 16
6
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
6
8
6
11 14
5
5 7 7 2 5 5
4 6 5 1 4 5
12 10 16 12 13 13
8 13
4
3
9
5
4
5
CHECCHI DAVIS HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS
Lungren’s experience as attorney general
My candidate’s position on crime
My candidate’s position on education
Davis’experience as lieutenant governor
My candidate has more years of
experience in elected office
Negative campaigning by the other
candidates
Checchi’s experience as a successful
businessman
Harman’s mix of political and business
experience
Harman is a woman
None of the above
Favorable
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
81
19
77
23
CHECCHI
VOTERS
DAVIS
VOTERS
49
51
98
2
49
51
63
37
82
18
73
27
79
21
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
66
34
42
58
S. As of today, what is your impression of Jane Harman?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
3
23
36
2
1
15
22
62
1
20
31
2
67
35
14
1
Favorable
Unfavorable
3
19
5
9
Favorable
Unfavorable
5
13
16
7
51
–
1
–
2
1
11
1
1
8
36
27
11
–
–
10
46
54
60
40
47
53
CHECCHI
VOTERS
DAVIS
VOTERS
46
54
51
49
30
70
44
56
57
43
47
53
48
52
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
97
3
23
77
T. As of today, what is your impression of Dan Lungren?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Favorable
Unfavorable
Favorable
Unfavorable
© Los Angeles Times 1998. All rights reserved.
67
33
62
38
40
60
48
52
CHECCHI
VOTERS
DAVIS
VOTERS
43
57
38
62
Los Angeles Times/CNN Exit Poll, California Primary; June 2, 1998
87
13
68
32
35
65
47
53
72
28
HARMAN LUNGREN
VOTERS VOTERS
36
64
97
3
Page 2
U. Thinking of Prop. 227, the bilingual education initiative, which
of the following statements do you agree with most? (ACCEPTED
UP TO TWO RESPONSES)
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
If you live in America, you
should speak English
Bilingual education is not
effective
Prop. 227 discriminates against
non-English speaking students
Prop. 227 is a one size fits all
solution/Takes authority away
from local school districts
Prop. 227 is poorly written
Bilingual education works
Prop. 227 hurts English
speaking children
Children should be allowed to
speak in their native language
Governor Wilson supports 227
President Clinton opposes 227
Prop. 227 costs too much
None of the above
49 39 46 63 56 43 20 49
41 30 40 55 48 23 20 40
16 24 17
8
11 24 36 17
12 14 18
10 14 14
7 10 2
7 11 12 13 8
6 10 11 18 4
3 5 8 15 11
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
5
5
2
5
2
5
4
2
–
–
7
1
4
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
4
6
4
5
4
6
9
3
7
2
6
7
2
2
6
5
PROPOSITION 227 VOTERS
If you live in America, you should speak English
Bilingual education is not effective
Prop. 227 discriminates against non-English
speaking students
Prop. 227 is a one size fits all solution/
Takes authority away from local school districts
Prop. 227 is poorly written
Bilingual education works
Prop. 227 hurts English speaking children
Children should be allowed to speak in their
native language
Governor Wilson supports 227
President Clinton opposes 227
Prop. 227 costs too much
None of the above
YES
NO
65
57
25
16
6
32
4
4
3
4
24
20
13
4
2
3
3
1
3
6
3
4
3
7
V. Do you think things in California are generally:
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Going in the right direction
66 65 65 70 70 50 61 76
Seriously off on the wrong track 34 35 35 30 30 50 39 24
W. As you may know, there have been Republican governors in
California for the past 16 years. Do you think Republicans should
continue to hold the office another four years or do you think it is
time for a change to the Democratic party?
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Republicans
Time for a change
44
56
11
89
32
68
85
15
54
46
12
88
20
80
57
43
BB. Do you think labor unions have:
ALL DEM IND REP WHT BLK LAT ASN
Too much influence
Too little influence
Just the right amount
of influence
48
19
31
27
41
22
69
8
55
16
28
30
33
24
47
16
33
42
37
23
29
42
43
37
[Demographic tables start on page 4]
© Los Angeles Times 1998. All rights reserved.
Los Angeles Times/CNN Exit Poll, California Primary; June 2, 1998
Page 3
Read the column on the left vertically. For example, of all those who voted, 52% were men and 48% were
women.
Read the tables on the right horizontally. For example, of all male voters, 12% voted for Al Checchi for governor, 34% voted for Gray Davis, 10% voted for Jane Harman and 37% voted for Dan Lungren (the vote for
other gubernatorial candidates is not shown).
Governor
% of
all
voters
Checchi
Davis
Harman Lungren
SEX
52% Male
48
Female
12%
14%
34
33
10
15
37
33
19%
13%
11%
11%
28
33
34
39
14
14
13
7
27
33
36
40
9%
17%
30%
14%
30
53
36
36
11
17
11
10
43
9
17
39
20%
11%
10%
9%
35
32
33
38
9
11
12
17
31
39
38
30
16%
13%
7%
52
42
13
18
15
5
9
21
70
14%
18%
9%
6%
56
49
12
10
15
20
3
6
11
9
70
74
14%
13%
10%
49
44
15
21
15
5
7
23
65
14%
17%
11%
6%
53
52
21
6
23
15
10
2
4
12
53
81
23%
15%
12%
11%
9%
36
37
34
33
33
9
12
12
11
15
24
32
35
38
37
11%
18%
11%
29
38
46
11
10
19
44
30
19
13%
10%
13%
48
36
29
11
13
13
23
35
39
18%
13%
12%
10%
36
29
44
37
11
11
17
12
30
43
17
35
AGE
8%
38
30
24
18
30
50
65
to
to
to
or
29
49
64
older
69%
14
12
3
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
20%
27
28
25
High school graduate or less
Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate study
RACE/ETHNICITY
EDUCATION
PARTY REGISTRATION
48% Democrats
6
Independents
40
Republicans
SEX AND PARTY
25%
26
25
19
Democratic men
Democratic women
Republican men
Republican women
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
20% Liberals
43
Moderates
37
Conservatives
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
13%
29
12
24
Liberal Democrats
Other Democrats
Other Republicans
Conservative Republicans
10%
20
22
16
32
Less than $20,000
$20,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $74,999
$75,000 or more
ANNUAL FAMILY INCOME
RELIGION
50% Non-Catholic Christian
24
Roman Catholic
5
Jewish
UNION MEMBERSHIP
23% Union member
12
Union member in household
65
Non-union household
REGIONS
25%
32
14
29
© Los Angeles Times 1998. All rights reserved.
Los Angeles County
Rest of Southern California
Bay Area
Rest of Northern California
Los Angeles Times/CNN Exit Poll, California Primary; June 2, 1998
Page 4
Ballot Propositions
U.S. Senator
% of
all
voters
226
Boxer
Fong
227
Issa
Yes
No
Yes
No
SEX
52% Male
48
Female
39%
48%
26
19
20
18
50%
45%
50
55
64%
57%
36
43
48%
44%
44%
41%
17
21
21
27
15
19
20
19
40%
45%
49%
55%
60
55
51
45
50%
59%
61%
66%
50
41
39
34
35%
78%
57%
34%
26
8
11
50
24
3
11
9
55%
31%
25%
48%
45
69
75
52
67%
48%
37%
57%
33
52
63
43
47%
40%
41%
48%
19
21
24
25
15
21
19
18
39%
47%
53%
50%
61
53
47
50
56%
65%
63%
57%
44
35
37
43
73%
51%
10%
10
22
39
5
13
36
28%
45%
72%
72
55
28
47%
59%
77%
53
41
23
71%
71%
7%
11%
12
9
43
36
5
6
37
37
28%
27%
74%
71%
72
73
26
29
48%
48%
81%
72%
52
52
19
28
78%
52%
15%
8
20
32
3
12
36
23%
40%
71%
77
60
29
36%
59%
77%
64
41
23
83%
66%
19%
3%
5
13
40
39
2
7
23
45
19%
32%
59%
80%
81
68
41
20
35%
55%
68%
82%
65
45
32
18
50%
47%
45%
40%
42%
16
21
18
23
27
14
16
20
21
19
41%
42%
48%
50%
51%
59
58
52
50
49
49%
56%
61%
65%
64%
51
44
39
35
36
35%
47%
69%
26
21
12
24
16
9
56%
41%
37%
44
59
63
66%
54%
55%
34
46
45
56%
43%
39%
16
24
24
12
17
22
33%
41%
55%
67
59
45
51%
57%
65%
49
43
35
51%
37%
59%
39%
18
22
20
26
16
26
7
18
47%
53%
37%
48%
53
47
63
52
57%
68%
49%
59%
43
32
51
41
AGE
8%
38
30
24
18
30
50
65
to
to
to
or
29
49
64
older
69%
14
12
3
Whites
Blacks
Latinos
Asians
RACE/ETHNICITY
EDUCATION
20%
27
28
25
High school graduate or less
Some college
College graduate
Postgraduate study
PARTY REGISTRATION
48% Democrats
6
Independents
40
Republicans
SEX AND PARTY
25%
26
25
19
Democratic men
Democratic women
Republican men
Republican women
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
20% Liberals
43
Moderates
37
Conservatives
PARTY AND IDEOLOGY
13%
29
12
24
Liberal Democrats
Other Democrats
Other Republicans
Conservative Republicans
ANNUAL FAMILY INCOME
10%
20
22
16
32
Less than $20,000
$20,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $74,999
$75,000 or more
RELIGION
50% Non-Catholic Christian
24
Roman Catholic
5
Jewish
UNION MEMBERSHIP
23% Union member
12
Union member in household
65
Non-union household
REGIONS
25%
32
14
29
Los Angeles County
Rest of Southern California
Bay Area
Rest of Northern California
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
The Times Poll interviewed 5,143 voters as they left 99 polling places across California during voting hours on June 2. Precincts
were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past statewide elections. The survey was by confidential questionnaire in English and
Spanish.
The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus two points. For some subgroups the error
margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when
approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to adjust the sample slightly. Interviews at the
precinct level were conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas.
✔
❑
RETURN TO LIST OF STAT SHEETS
© Los Angeles Times 1998. All rights reserved.
Los Angeles Times/CNN Exit Poll, California Primary; June 2, 1998
Page 5