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ANEXO 9
REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PEA, PIB, POB 12 y mas
Los datos son los siguientes:
Nacional
Periodo Fuentes de empleo
PIB
PEA
1991
19957571
1189016973
1992
20294459
1232162341
1993
20631347
1256195971
1994
20717181
1311661116
1995
20803014
1230771052
1996
21853765
1294196562
1997
23539746
1381839196
1998
24547736
1451350909
1999
25542984
1503930030
2000
27701281
1602542837
2001
27631150
1599787373
2002
28861652
1618085765
2003
30799292
1669603457
31229048
32440430
33651812
34605148
35558484
36580746
38344658
39562404
39648333
40161543
40072856
41085736
41515672
Tabla 1. Datos para la regresión múltiple a nivel nacional.
Pob 12 y más
58317249
59658722
61000194
62491145
63982096
66037955
67702002
69537053
70818567
72137537
73577159
75352912
76863320
Regression Summ ary
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents
13
Count
0
Num. Missing
R
.994
R Squared
.988
Adjusted R Squared
.984
465920.684
RMS Residual
ANOVA Table
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents
DF Sum of Squares
Mean Square
F-Value
P-Value
5.488E13
252.829
<.0001
Regression
3
1.647E14
Residual
9
1.954E12 217082084140.593
12
Total
1.666E14
Regression Coefficients
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents
Coefficient
Std. Error
Intercept
Std. Coeff.
t-Value
P-Value
-10720220.046 2017761.291 -10720220.046
-5.313
.0005
.0039
PIB
.012
.003
.573
3.856
PEA
-.635
.211
-.591
-3.008
.0148
.607
.168
.998
3.609
.0057
Pob 12 y mas
Residual Statistics
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 3 Independents
8
# >= 0
5
#<0
SS[e(i) - e(i-1)]
4.192E12
Durbin-Watson
2.146
Serial Autocorrelation
-.184
Residuals vs. Fitted
Residual Fuentes de Empleo
600000
400000
200000
0
-200000
-400000
-600000
-800000
18000000
22000000
26000000
Fitted Fuentes de Empleo
3E7
REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PIB
Regression Summ ary
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB
Count
13
Num. Missing
0
R
.986
R Squared
.971
Adjusted R Squared
RMS Residual
.969
659798.525
ANOVA Table
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB
DF Sum of Squares
Regression
1
1.618E14
Mean Square
F-Value
P-Value
1.618E14
371.712
<.0001
Residual
11
4.789E12 435334093827.960
Total
12
1.666E14
Regression Coefficients
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. PIB
Coefficient
Intercept
Std. Coeff.
t-Value
-6078792.878 1574303.628 -6078792.878
-3.861
.0026
19.280
<.0001
PIB
Std. Error
.021
.001
.986
Regression Plot
32000000
Fuentes de Empleo
3E7
28000000
26000000
24000000
22000000
2E7
18000000
1150000000
1.3E9
1450000000
PIB
Y = -6078792.878 + .021 * X; R^2 = .971
1.6E9
P-Value
REGRESIÓN PIB vs. TIEMPO
Regression Summ ary
PIB vs. Tiempo
Count
13
Num. Missing
0
R
.967
R Squared
.934
Adjusted R Squared
RMS Residual
.928
45970972.461
ANOVA Table
PIB vs. Tiempo
DF
Sum of Squares
Mean Square
F-Value
P-Value
1
3.312E17
3.312E17
156.707
<.0001
Residual
11
2.325E16
2.113E15
Total
12
3.544E17
Regression
Regression Coefficients
PIB vs. Tiempo
Coefficient
Intercept
Tiempo
Std. Coeff.
t-Value
P-Value
1112256464.077 27046948.343 1112256464.077
41.123
<.0001
12.518
<.0001
42657247.791
Std. Error
3407595.192
.967
Regression Plot
1.7E9
1650000000
1.6E9
1550000000
PIB
1.5E9
1450000000
1.4E9
1350000000
1.3E9
1250000000
1.2E9
1150000000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Tiempo
Y = 1112256464.077 + 42657247.791 * X; R^2 = .934
14
Los datos para Puebla son:
Puebla
Fuentes de Empleo
844890
900814
956737
1041680
1126622
1162003
1197384
PIB
PEA
4.7
5
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.8
Tabla 2. Datos para la regresión en Puebla.
Pob 12 y más
1691461
1775647
1859833
1930769
2001705
2094173
2186640
3177100
3327289
3477477
3572630
3667783
3767410
3867037
REGRESIÓN FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. PIB, Pob 12 y mas
Regression Summ ary
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents
7
Count
0
Num. Missing
R
.995
R Squared
.990
.986
Adjusted R Squared
16271.830
RMS Residual
ANOVA Table
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents
DF
Sum of Squares
Mean Square
F-Value
P-Value
Regression
2 110119652624.653 55059826312.327
207.951
<.0001
Residual
4
Total
6 111178742485.429
1059089860.776
Regression Coefficients
Fuentes de Em pleo vs. 2 Independents
Coefficient
Std. Error
Std. Coeff.
t-Value
97191.099 -941024.538
-9.682
.0006
-1.135
-2.517
.0656
2.116
4.692
.0094
Intercept
-941024.538
PIB
-420849.917 167225.660
Pob 12 y mas
1.182
264772465.194
.252
P-Value
Regression Summary
Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as
Count
7
Num. Missing
0
|R|
.988
R Squared
.975
.970
Adjusted R Squared
23392.499
RMS Residual
ANOVA Table
Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as
DF
Sum of Squares
Mean Square
F-Value
P-Value
Regression
1 108442697364.997 108442697364.997
198.174
<.0001
Residual
5
Total
6 111178742485.429
2736045120.431
547209024.086
Regression Coefficients
Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as
Coefficient
Std. Error
Intercept
Std. Coeff.
t-Value
-926767.380 139485.058 -926767.380
Pob 12 y mas
.552
.039
Confidence Intervals
Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as
Coefficient
95% Low er
Intercept
.988
P-Value
-6.644
.0012
14.077
<.0001
95% Upper
-926767.380 -1285325.135 -568209.625
Pob 12 y mas
.552
.451
.653
Residual Statistics
Fuentes de Empleo vs. Pob 12 y m as
3
# >= 0
4
#<0
SS[e(i) - e(i-1)]
4325505122.071
Durbin-Watson
1.581
.130
Serial Autocorrelation
Regression Plot
1250000
Fuentes de Empleo
1200000
1150000
1100000
1050000
1000000
950000
900000
850000
800000
3100000
3300000
3500000
Pob 12 y mas
Y = -926767.38 + .552 * X; R^2 = .975
3700000
3900000
Residuals vs. Fitted
Residual Fuentes de Empleo
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
Fitted Fuentes de Empleo
1200000
Dependent vs. Fitted
1250000
Fuentes de Empleo
1200000
1150000
1100000
1050000
1000000
950000
900000
850000
800000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
Fitted Fuentes de Empleo
1200000
Residuals vs. Dependent
Residual Fuentes de Empleo
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
800000
FUENTES DE EMPLEO vs. Población 12 y más
900000
1000000
1100000
Fuentes de Empleo
1200000
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