Charla Económica, Ciudad de La Serena

" *
+( )
" *
7
,
!
, )
" *
.
*
"
"
( )
$
+( )
,
,
( )
, )
!
$
456
!*
& !-
&/!2
'!'
&-!%
& !-
& !0
,3
,3
&2!%
&'!0
&'0!0
& !%
&'-!
!-
&/!0
& !%
&'!
&/!
!%
& !*
&'!-
&0!'
' !
/!%
!
!
-!*
' !*
%!
1
,
!
!
" #
$
1
3
#8 +
"(
.
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1
3
7
+7 "(
.
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
-5,0
-10,0
-15,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$
#9
#9
+#8!
"(
.
(PIB, crec.% anual)
12,0
4,0
10,0
2,0
8,0
0,0
-4,0
$
14,0
6,0
-2,0
1
6,0
Estados Unidos
Japón
Euro Area
-6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
-8,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
China
Emerging Asia
Latin America
-4,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
:
#9
3
:
+7 "( '
10,0
3
6 ;
.
>
:
+7 "( '
3
.
12,0
8,0
10,0
6$
6,0
1
4
8,0
4,0
6,0
6
8
;<
4,0
# =
2,0
8
A
A
J08
J
0,0
A
A
E09
O
J
A
E08
O
J
A
E07
-4,0
J07
-2,0
O
0,0
J09
1
O
2,0
J
,3
,
3
?
400
+45AB .
:
@
150
380
150
1D
360
(US$/bl)
340
320
120
120
90
90
300
280
260
# 3
1D EF
240
220
60
200
(US$/bl)
60
180
Prom. 20 años real
160
140
Prom. 20 años real
30
30
0
0
120
8
A
M
F
E09
D
N
O
S
A
J
J
M
A
M
F
E08
80
E08
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
E08
F
M
A
100
, BBCCC"
BBCCC"
"
"$ )B
6,0
128,0
:
+1
4
!' -
5,0
4,0
.
G :
+1
6
'!
3,0
1D
1
+45AB14GH.
'!2
1,60
123,0
1,55
118,0
1,50
113,0
1,45
108,0
1,40
103,0
1,35
.
2,0
H)
+ ,
,3
3 .
!'
1,0
1D EF
I1 + #IB45A.
*!*%
98,0
$
93,0
1,30
1,25
88,0
0,0
E07
8
A
J
O
E08
A
J
O
E09
A
1,20
E07 A
J
O E08 A
J
O E09 A
6 ;
>
#
D
3
+'
+7 "( '
-J'
.
.
20,0
15,0
6$
10,0
5,0
0,0
;<
-5,0
-10,0
-15,0
8
M
F
09E
D
N
O
S
A
J
J
M
A
M
F
08E
D
N
O
S
A
J
J
M
A
M
F
07E
-20,0
K >1
3
#8
3
var % real sobre año previo
12
12
Demanda final
10
PIB
Demanda final
2008
3,2
7,4
2009*
-1,0
-1,6
2010*
3,2
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
PIB
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
07.I
07.II
07.III
PIB
07.IV
08.I
08.II
08.III
08.IV
09.I
09.II
09.III
09.IV
#8 G $
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2000
1998
1997
1996
1995
#
#9
" *-& * J -!-
2001
G
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
J' *-.
7 G $3
" *-& * J -!0
#
1985
'
2003
+8
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2002
3
1999
1)
6 1
+7 "( .
6 1
E J & !%
9,0
#
7,0
"6
J '!*
5,0
3,0
#
"
J & !'
1,0
-1,0
E 09
M
M
M
J
S
N
M
M
J
S
N
E 08
M
M
J
S
N
E 07
M
J
S
N
E 06
E 05
M
-3,0
)
6
80,0
)
G $
6 1G 7 G $ 3
70,0
+7 "(
.
60,0
IV Región
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
9,5
País
10,0
0,0
-2,1
-10,0
I 09
III
I 08
III
I 07
III
I 06
III
I 05
III
I 04
III
I 03
III
I 02
III
I 01
III
I 00
III
I 99
-20,0
5
5H H 6 #
3
+7 "(
Producción
7 " ('
#
7
7
8
+7 " ( '
.
J &%!-
7 "( '
.
29,0
Ventas -8,4
-9,1
24,0
J &%!
Bienes Durables
19,0
14,0
9,0
4,0
-1,0
-6,0
-2,9
Bienes No Durables
-11,0
-14,3
IPC
Abril = -0,2
Subyacente
Abril = -0,2
9,0
7,0
.
IPC
Subyacente
5,5
5,0
4,5
3,0
1,0
A
E 09
O
J
A
E 08
O
J
A
E 07
O
J
A
E 06
O
J
A
E 05
O
J
A
E 04
O
J
A
E 03
-1,0
A
E 09
O
J
A
E 08
O
3
+ 7 "( '
11,0
A
E 07
:
J
-16,0
03 E
M
M
J
S
N
04 E
M
M
J
S
N
05 E
M
M
J
S
N
06 E
M
M
J
S
N
07 E
M
M
J
S
N
08 E
M
M
J
S
N
09 E
M
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
-4,0
-6,0
-8,0
-10,0
G
8
8
;
, 9
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
6
+(.
J '! -
8
BCU 10 Years
'!*%
A
E 09
S
;
BCU 5 Years
5,0
M
E 08
S
M
E 07
S
M
E 06
S
M
E05
S
M
E 04
S
M
E 03
'!%-
+(.
!-/
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
A
E09
O
J
A
08 E
O
J
A
07 E
O
J
A
06 E
O
J
A
05 E
O
J
A
04 E
O
J
A
03 E
0,0
,
:
E
D
!*
6,0%
9,0
+7 "(
3)
5,0%
E
4,0%
%!/
3,0%
6,0
2,0%
5,0
1,0%
4,0
0,0%
3,0
-1,0%
A
E 06
M
M
J
S
N
E 07
M
M
J
S
N
E 08
M
M
J
S
N
E 09
M
7,0
D
'!
H
, 3
& !-
E06
M
M
J
S
N
E07
M
M
J
S
N
E08
M
M
J
S
N
E09
M
8,0
.
A
10,0
(
3
G $
,
(
E
8,3
7,3
9,5
IV Región
Coquimbo
La Serena
Abr-08
Abr-09
13,7
5,3
Ovalle
Otros
13,3
8,3
5,7
8,6
8,3
6,3
5,2
5,6
8,7
9,9
9,8
6,7
6,1
5,8
4,6
Los Lagos
Los Ríos
La Raucanía
Bío-Bío
Maule
O"higgins
Valparaiso
Coquimbo
Atacama
Antofagasta
3,0
Tarapacá
8,2
7,4
2,7
2,1
R.Metropolitana
8,9
9,9
Magallanes
10,0
7,2
7,0
5,9
11,8
10,7
11,2
Arica y
Parinacota
5,4
D.
Aysen
+
3 G $
G $
1 ,
,
21,7
21,0
3 (
7 G $3
"
"& 6
20,6
10,9
8,1
6,4
Servicios Agricultura Comercio
Personales
Construc
Transport
Industria
5,4
5,8
Ss. Financ.
Otros
5
'
!45A
".
8
28.000
75.000
22.000
54.000
19.000
47.000
16.000
,
J 0"'-/
A
E 09
O
J
A
E 08
O
J
A
E 07
O
1.000
A
12.000
O
E 09
4.000
J
19.000
E 08
A
7.000
O
26.000
J
10.000
E 07
A
33.000
O
".
13.000
J -'"-%-
J
40.000
A
6
A
J
!45A
6
61.000
E 06
'
25.000
1<,
6
J --"%2'
68.000
E
+6
E 06
+6
1<
5
1<
($/US$)
(índice 1986 = 100)
110
700
,
L
<
8
G
!
H
3
)
!
+ G." 5
# "
:
,
)
!
,
,
:
3
A
E09
O
J
A
E08
O
J
,
)
O
80
A
400
A
85
E09
450
O
90
J
500
A
95
E08
550
A
100
E07
600
J
105
,
E07
650
G
#
1
2
9
0
-
/
%
*,
,
7 "(
#8
0!
/!
-!/
0!/
0!%
2!
&'!
0!*
%!-
' !0
/!*
%!*
%!0
&0!'
0!
%!
%!0
%!'
/!
0!2
!0
!0
/!'
-!
/!0
*!
0!
-!-
-!%
' !
2!
!2
' !
' !-
&'0!
1<,
/!-
'2!2
0!2
-!'
%!/
2!'
&'!
,
!%
'*!0
'%!
' !/
'0!
' !
&*!
''
'0/
'/2
'%'
'0/
)
#8 +
3
45A.
%0
/
M#
1
9
#
2
0
-
/
%
,
*
7 "(
#
B
# ,
N
'!'
!0
2!%
!/
%!*
%!'
!*
!*
'!'
2!'
2!0
0!0
*!%
!
D
#
E
H
D
,
,
#
H &
,
3
,
3
" N
"
/"2
/"/ *
/"% *
/"* 2
/" 00
%"
-"%**
-" 0/
/"'%
/" %
/"00
/"/0
/'
//'
/ *
-2'
0 -
-/
!(
%!*(
%!'(
%!*(
!/(
%! (
/! (
%! (
%!-(
*!-(
!-(
*!-(
' !(
*! (
2
%"20%
/"/0
% /
M#
1
9
1<
2
0
/
+
8
E
1<,
&%%
" %-
2"% 2
"-*-
'"
'"//0
%"*'-
G
'2"
'2"*0
,
'%"
'%" 0'
+( #8.
&'!'
#
#
#
3
,
,
G
+' */J'
.
'"00
*
,
&2"00
& "'*0
" 45A.
A.
%"'-0
%"'*
' "%%-
"-*
2"/-2
*"*0/
2"- -
2 "-
0'" /%
-*"/*
/%"///
//"0-/
0%"*0/
'0"
'0"%
'*" /-
2 "%'
2%"-*2
2 "* *
' "
2 " *-
22"/%'
00" 2'
-%"/'
00"20'
'%"
'%"% *
"2
" 2-
2 "0
!'
-"* %
2-"
*"/ -
0!
0!0
& !
&'!-
2 2
2'/
'
'2
'/%
2 -
%
0
-/
//
/ '
/'
!
'
'!
*'
' 0!2
%
-/
-!'
-2
'!%
%
' 0
- 2
- 2
0!'
-!
-*0