Banco de México Documentos de Investigación Banco de México Working Papers N◦ 2005-05 Factor Shares From Household Survey Data Rodrigo Garcı́a-Verdú Banco de México October 2005 La serie de Documentos de Investigación del Banco de México divulga resultados preliminares de trabajos de investigación económica realizados en el Banco de México con la finalidad de propiciar el intercambio y debate de ideas. El contenido de los Documentos de Investigación, ası́ como las conclusiones que de ellos se derivan, son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no reflejan necesariamente las del Banco de México. The Working Papers series of Banco de México disseminates preliminary results of economic research conducted at Banco de México in order to promote the exchange and debate of ideas. The views and conclusions presented in the Working Papers are exclusively the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Banco de México. Documento de Investigación 2005-05 Working Paper 2005-05 Factor Shares From Household Survey Data* Rodrigo Garcı́a-Verdú† Banco de México Abstract This paper proposes a method for estimating the factor shares using cross sectional household survey data containing detailed information on household income by source. The application of this method to the case of Mexico using data from every available household survey that is representative at the national level, yields the following results: (i) factor shares in Mexico are much closer to those in the United States than the NIPA data suggest, and (ii) factor shares in Mexico have been relatively constant over the time period analyzed. The paper then develops the implications of the differences between factor shares obtained from the NIPA data and the household survey data for some areas of economic research. Keywords: Factor Shares, National Income and Product Accounts, Household Survey Data, Functional Distribution of Income, Growth Accounting. JEL Classification: E25, O47, E13 Resumen Este trabajo propone un método para estimar las participaciones factoriales utilizando datos de corte transversal provenientes de encuestas de hogares que contienen información detallada del ingreso por sus fuentes. La aplicación del método al caso de México utilizando datos de todas las encuestas representativas a nivel nacional disponibles, arroja los siguientes resultados: (i) las participaciones factoriales en México son mucho más cercanas a las de los Estados Unidos que lo que los datos del SCN sugiere, y (ii) las participaciones factoriales en México han sido relativamente constantes durante el periodo analizado. El trabajo desarrolla las implicaciones de las diferencias entre las participaciones factoriales obtenidas a partir de los datos del SCN y de las encuestas de hogares en algunas áreas de investigación económica. Palabras Clave: Participaciones Factoriales, Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales, Datos de Encuestas Nacionales, Distribución Funcional del Ingreso, Contabilidad del Crecimiento. * This paper draws partly on my joint work with Regina Weber Buch. I am grateful to Benito Berber, Sara Castellanos, Jesús Cervantes, Daniel Chiquiar, Daniel Garcés, Alejandro Gaytán, Jesús González, William Maloney, Lorenza Martı́nez, Manuel Ramos Francia, Manuel Santos, Luis San Vicente, Camilo Tovar, Gabriel Vera, Dorothy Walton and seminar participants at Banco de México, CIDE, ITAM, LACEA, Universidad de Guanajuato and the Econometric Society World Congress for very helpful comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Marı́a Bolio, Salvador Bonilla, Susana Cazorla, Douglas Gollin, Cynthia Mendonca, Ricardo Paes de Barros, Diego Petrecolla, Ricardo Reyes, Graciela Ruiz and Luis Suárez for their help in obtaining the data. Oscar Budar and Othón Moreno provided outstanding research assistance. † Dirección General de Investigación Económica. 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& =<3 ;CAB I@AB =0B/7< < B63=@G B= =0B/7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 4@=; & B63 <3FB AB3>A A6=C:2 03 4=::=E32 %0B/7< $3B =;3AB71 &@=2C1B /A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< & /<2 3>@317/B7=< %0B/7< $3B $/B7=</: &@=2C1B /A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< $3B =;3AB71 &@=2C1B /<2 $3B /1B=@ &/G;3<BA 4@=; /0@=/2 %0B/7< $3B $/B7=</: <1=;3 /A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< $3B $/ B7=</: &@=2C1B /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A :/AA74G $3B $/B7=</: <1=;3 /A 37B63@ ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< =@ =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA < >@/1B713 B6=C56 7< =@23@ B= =0B/7< & ;=AB 1=C<B@73A CA3 =<3 =@ 0=B6 =4 B63 I@AB BE= ;3B6=2A B63 >@=2C1B7=< =@ B63 3F>3<27BC@3 />>@=/16 E67:3 =<:G / 43E 1=C<B@73A =0B/7< /< 7<23>3<23<B ;3/AC@3 =4 $3B $/B7=</: <1=;3 CA7<5 B63 B67@2 ;3B6=2 B63 7<1=;3 />>@=/16 )63 ;/7< @3/A=< 4=@ B67A 7A B6/B 2/B/ =< =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA =<3 =4 B63 BE= ;/7< 1/B35=@73A 7<B= E6716 $3B $/B7=</: <1=;3 7A 1:/AA7I32 /@3 A1/<B =@ /0A3<B /:B=53B63@ 4=@ ;=AB 1=C<B@73A $3B /1B=@ &/G;3<BA 7A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< >/G;3<BA @3137D32 0G @3A723<BA 4=@ 4/1B=@ A3@D713A @3<23@32 /0@=/2 /<2 >/G;3<BA ;/23 B= =B63@ 1=C<B@73A 4=@ 4/1B=@ A3@D713A @3<23@32 0G <=<@3A723<BA <1723<B/::G B63 /0A3<13 =4 2/B/ =< =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA 7A / ;/8=@ 2@/E0/19 4=@ >=:71G ;/93@A 7< B63A3 1=C<B@73A B 7A 7;>=@B/<B B= 6756:756B B6/B 4=@ B6=A3 1=C<B@73A B6/B 2= 6/D3 3A>7B3 B63 /0=D3 ;=AB 1=C<B@73A AB7:: >@=2C13 /<2 @3>=@B / 1:/AA7I1/B7=< =4 & 03BE33< :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 < =@23@ B= =0B/7< B67A 27D7A7=< 1=C< B@73A BG>71/::G =0B/7< ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< 27@31B:G /<2 =0B/7< / ;3/AC@3 =4 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 /A / @3A72C/: )6CA 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 7A 23I<32 /A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< & =0B/7<32 CA7<5 =<3 =4 B63 I@AB BE= ;3B6=2A /<2 ;>:=G33 =; >3<A/B7=< 3>@317/B7=< /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A < >@/1B713 B= =0B/7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 4@=; & ;=AB 1=C<B@73A 4=::=E B63 <3FB AB3>A %0B/7< & B6@=C56 37B63@ B63 >@=2C1B7=< A723 =@ B63 3F>3<27BC@3 A723 %0B/7< ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A 27@31B:G %0B/7< / ;3/AC@3 =4 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 1/::32 @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA /A B63 27Q3@3<13 03BE33< & ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< /<2 $3B <27 @31B )/F3A @=AA =;3AB71 &@=2C1B 7A B63< 1:/AA7I32 7<B= ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A <3B =4 <27@31B (C0A7273A )63 ;3/AC@3 =4 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ =0B/7<32 7< B67A E/G 7A / @3A72C/: A= 0G 23I<7B7=< 7B 7<1:C23A =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA /A E3:: /A /:: 7<1=;3 B6/B 7A <=B 3F>:717B:G 1:/AA7I32 /A ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< 7D3< B6/B 7< :=E >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 1=C<B@73A / :/@53 A6/@3 =4 B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 /@3 BG>71/::G 37B63@ 3;>:=G3@A A3:43;>:=G32 =@ 7<4=@;/: 3;>:=G33A B637@ 7<1=;3A /@3 :793:G B= 03 7<1=@@31B:G 1:/AA7I32 /A >/@B =4 B63 @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA E6716 /5/7< 7A =0B/7<32 /A / @3A72C/: )63 4/1B B6/B B63 67563@ >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 1=C<B@73A 6/D3 =< /D3@/53 / :=E3@ A6/@3 =4 B637@ :/0=@ 4=@13 /A 37B63@ 3;>:=G3@A A3:43;>:=G32 =@ 7<4=@;/: 3;>:=G33A 7A A6=E< 7< B63 4=::=E7<5 I5C@3 ;3/AC@3A =4 =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA B63 2/B/ =< E6716 B63G /@3 0/A32 /@3 BG>71/::G =0B/7<32 B6@=C56 @/<2=; A/;>:7<5 =4 B/F @3BC@< 4=@;A )6CA B63 ;3/AC@3 =4 =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA =0B/7<32 4@=; $&LA 2/B/ 7A /1BC/::G /< 3AB7;/B3 < 4/1B 1=C<B@73A /:A= 27Q3@ 7< B67A @35/@2 A7<13 A=;3 AC0B@/1B 23>@317/B7=< /<2 =B63@A 2= <=B .,85* 1403<*56 &2) !*0+1403<*) %35/*56 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ 7-* &'35 35(* &2) 5*&0 4*5 (&4.7& .2 & 6&140* 3+ (38275.*6 1367 5*(*27 <*&56 &9&.0&'0* &5382) 60% Percent of the Labor Force 50% 40% 30% 20% Mexico 10% United States 0% 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 Real GDP per capita (=C@13 =::7< 75C@3 > )6CA =<13 B63 27Q3@3<13A 7< /11=C<B7<5 ;3B6=2=:=573A /<2 7< B63 1=;>= A7B7=< =4 B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 /1@=AA 27Q3@3<B 1=C<B@73A /@3 1:3/@ 7B 031=;3A 3D723<B E6G 1=C<B@73A E7B6 :=E >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 6/D3 =< /D3@/53 / :=E3@ :/0=@ A6/@3 B6/< 6756 >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 1=C<B@73A 7< B63 $& 2/B/ )63 ?C3AB7=< B6/B /@7A3A </BC@/::G B63< 7A 6=E B= /28CAB B63A3 2/B/ B= 1=@@31B 4=@ B63A3 27Q3@3<13A 7< /11=C<B7<5 < =@23@ B= A=:D3 B67A ;3/AC@3;3<B >@=0:3; =::7< >@=>=A32 /28CAB 7<5 B63 $& 2/B/ 4=@ B63 27Q3@3<13 /1@=AA 1=C<B@73A 7< B63 A6/@3 =4 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 < >/@B71C:/@ /:: 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 A6=C:2 7< >@7<17>:3 03 7<1:C232 7< / 1/B35=@G =4 B63 $& 23<=;7</B32 %>3@/B7<5 (C@ >:CA =4 &@7D/B3 *<7<1=@>=@/B32 <B3@>@7A3A =@ %(&* G 1=<D3<B7=< =4 B63 (GAB3; =4 $/B7=</: 11=C<BA 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 7A <=B B= 03 1:/A A7I32 /A :/0=@ 7<1=;3 0CB 7<AB3/2 A6=C:2 03 1:/AA7I32 7< B63 %(&* 1/B35=@G )63 @/B7=</:3 4=@ B67A 7A B6/B B63 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 7A D3@G 27P1C:B B= 1:/AA74G 7<B= / >/@B 1=@@3A>=<27<5 B= :/0=@ /<2 / >/@B 1=@@3A>=<27<5 B= 1/>7B/: /A ;=AB =4 B63 A3:4 3;>:=G32 2= <=B 27AB7<5C7A6 B63;A3:D3A 03BE33< B63A3 BE= A=C@13A =4 7<1=;3 7< B637@ /11=C<B7<5 =::7< B63< >@=>=A32 B6@33 ;3B6=2A 4=@ /28CAB7<5 B63 $& 2/B/ B= /11=C<B 4=@ B63 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 7 /BB@70CB3 /:: %(&* B= :/0=@ 7<1=;3 77 27D723 %(&* 7<B= :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: 7<1=;3 /11=@27<5 B= B63 A6/@3A 7;>:732 0G B63 $& 2/B/ /<2 777 CA3 2/B/ =< B63 1=;>=A7B7=< =4 B63 E=@94=@13 /<2 7;>CB3 E/53A B= B63 A3:43;>:=G32 CA7<5 B63 /D3@/53 E/53 7< B63 $& 3;>:=G33 1=;>3<A/B7=< 2/B/ %<13 B63A3 /28CAB;3<BA /@3 ;/23 B= B63 $& 2/B/ B63 1@=AA1=C<B@G D/@7/ B7=< 7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 7A 5@3/B:G @32C132 C@B63@;=@3 B63 27Q3@3<13A B6/B @3;/7< /4B3@ B63 /28CAB;3<BA B= B63 2/B/ /@3 <=B @3:/B32 B= >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 )67A AC553ABA B6/B 27Q3@3<13A /1@=AA 1=C<B@73A 7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A /@3 :/@53:G 2C3 B= 274 43@3<13A 7< ;3/AC@3;3<B /<2 /11=C<B7<5 >@/1B713A 73 6=E B63 7<1=;3 4@=; 3;>:=G3@A B63 A3:43;>:=G32 /<2 B6=A3 7<4=@;/::G 3;>:=G32 7A 1:/AA7I32 7< B63 $& 2/B/ /<2 B= 27Q3@3<13A /1@=AA 1=C<B@73A 7< B63 1=;>=A7B7=< =4 B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 @/B63@ B6/< B= 27Q3@3<13A 7< B316<=:=5G *<4=@BC</B3:G ;/<G 1=C<B@73A 2= <=B 6/D3 =@ @3>=@B B63 %(&* 1/B35=@G A= 7B 7A 7;>=AA70:3 B= /28CAB B63 $& 2/B/ #=@3=D3@ 7B 7A >=AA70:3 B6/B A=;3 =4 B63 @3;/7<7<5 27Q3@3<13A /1@=AA 1=C<B@73A 7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A /4B3@ B63 $& 2/B/ 6/D3 033< /28CAB32 4=@ 27Q3@3<13A 7< 6=E B63 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 7A 1:/AA7I32 1=C:2 03 2C3 B= @3:/B32 ;3/AC@3;3<B /<2 /11=C<B7<5 >@=0:3;A AC16 /A 27Q3@3<13A /1@=AA 1=C<B@73A 7< B63 7<1=;3 4@=; B6=A3 7<4=@;/::G 3;>:=G32 "-* &6* 3+ *;.(3 #3F71= 7A =<3 =4 B63 1=C<B@73A 4=@ E6716 B63 %(&* 1/B35=@G 7A <=B /D/7: /0:3 <AB3/2 / 1:/AA7I1/B7=< 7A >@=D7232 7< B63 $& 2/B/ /11=@27<5 B= E6716 & 7A 27D7232 7<B= B6@33 1/B35=@73A ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A ,67:3 A3D3@/: =B63@ 1=C<B@73A >@=D723 / A7;7:/@ 0@3/92=E< =4 & #3F71= 7A / >/@B71C:/@:G 7<B3@3AB7<5 1/A3 4=@ A3D3@/: @3/A=<A 7@AB 23A>7B3 7BA 53=5@/>671/: >@=F7;7BG /<2 7BA AB@=<5 1=;;3@17/: /<2 7<D3AB;3<B B73A B= B63 *<7B32 (B/B3A B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =4 B63A3 BE= 1=C<B@73A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ 27Q3@ AC0AB/<B7/::G < 4/1B /A B63 4=::=E7<5 B/0:3 /<2 I5C@3 A6=E #3F71=LA A6/@3A /@3 /:;=AB B63 =>>=A7B3 =4 B6=A3 7< B63 *<7B32 (B/B3A < (>/<7A6 B63A3 B6@33 1/B35=@73A /@3 9<=E< /A ",4<5,9(*0I5 +, :(3(90(+6: ?*,+,5;, 9<;6 +, 7,9(*0I5 /<2 ;96: 47<,:;6: ( 3( 96+<**0I5 "&'0* /1B=@ (6/@3A /:1C:/B32 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ =;>3<A/B7=< =4 ;>:=G33A />7B/: <1=;3 .3/@ #3F71= *( #3F71= *( D3@/53 (=C@13A C3<B/ 23 &@=2C117V< (7AB3;/ 23 C3<B/A $/17=</:3A 23 #TF71= <AB7BCB= $/17=</: 23 AB/2UAB71/ 3=5@/4U/ 3 <4=@;SB71/ $ /<2 )/0:3 O $/B7=</: 7<1=;3 0G BG>3 =4 7<1=;3 O 1=<=;71 '3>=@B =4 B63 &@3A723<B />7B/: 7<1=;3 1=@@3A>=<2A B= @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA 7< #3F71= /<2 B= =@>=@/B3 &@=IBA 7< B63 *<7B32 (B/B3A .,85* 314*26&7.32 3+ 1403<**6 &2) 5366 4*5&7.2, !854086 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ .2 *;.(3 &2) 314*26&7.32 3+ 1403<**6 &2) 35435&7* 53>76 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ &7.32&0 2(31* .2 7-* #2.7*) !7&7*6 80% Gross Operating Surplus in Mexico Percent of GDP and of National Income 70% Compensation of Employees in the United States 60% 50% Compensation of Employees in Mexico 40% 30% Corporate Profits in the United States 20% 10% 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 0% Year (=C@13A C3<B/ 23 &@=2C117V< (7AB3;/ 23 C3<B/A $/17=</:3A 23 #TF71= $ /<2 )/0:3 O $/B7=</: 7<1=;3 0G BG>3 =4 7<1=;3 O 1=<=;71 '3>=@B =4 B63 &@3A723<B #=@3=D3@ 23A>7B3 B63 7<1@3/A7<5 7<B35@/B7=< =4 B63 #3F71/< /<2 B63 *( 31=<=;73A =D3@ B63 >/AB 231/23 0357<<7<5 7< E7B6 B63 3</1B;3<B =4 B63 $=@B6 ;3@71/< @33 )@/23 5@33;3<B $) B63@3 7A <= 3D723<13 7< B63 $& 2/B/ B6/B B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =4 B63 BE= 1=C<B@73A 6/D3 031=;3 ;=@3 A7;7:/@ )63 27A1@3>/<1G 7< 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 03BE33< #3F71= /<2 B63 *( 6/A 7< 4/1B 033< <=B7132 4=@ A=;3 B7;3 7< B63 :7B3@/BC@3 /A 3F3;>:7I32 0G B63 4=::=E7<5 ?C=B3 4@=; !36=3 /<2 !36=3 B5, +0:;<9)05. -,(;<9, 6- ;/, ,?0*(5 +(;( *647(9,+ ;6 ;/, %# +(;( 0: ;/, +0E,9,5*, ),;>,,5 ;/, :/(9, 6- 9,;<95: ;6 *(70;(3 05 ;/, 5(;065(3 05*64, 6- ;/, ;>6 *6<5;90,: 5 ,?0*6 ;/0: 5<4),9 0: ()6<; 7,9*,5; ;9033065 6<; 6- ;6;(3 -(*;69 05*64, 6- ;903 3065 >/,9,(: 05 ;/, %50;,+ #;(;,: 0; 0: ()6<; 7,9*,5; 5, =@ 3D723<13 /0=CB B63 7<1@3/A7<5 7<B35@/B7=< /<2 AG<16@=<7H/B7=< =4 B63 *( /<2 #3F7 1/< 31=<=;73A /4B3@ A33 67?C7/@ /<2 '/;=A @/<17/ C3D/A #3AA;/163@ /<2 ,3@<3@ /<2 )=@@3A /<2 +3:/ (7796(*/ ;6 /(5+305. ;/,:, +(;(D;/, 65, ;(2,5 05 ;/, 46+,3: +0: *<::,+ /,9,D0: ;6 (**,7; ;/, +(;( (; -(*, =(3<, (5+ ;6 *(30)9(;, ;/, 796+<*;065 -<5*;065: (**69+05.3@ 56;/,9 (7796(*/ 0: ;6 3662 -69 9,(:65: >/@ ;/, ;>6 *(70;(3 :/(9,: (9, :6 +0E,9,5; #64, 76::0)030 ;0,: (9, +0E,9,5; ;9,(;4,5; 6- ;/, ,(9505.: 6- :,3-,4736@,+ >692,9: 05 ;/, ;>6 *6<5;90,: +0E,9,5; *6476:0;065 6- 5(;065(3 6<;7<; /0./,9 4656763@ 9,5;: 05 ,?0*6 (5+ 469, )3(*2 4(92,; 3()69 05 ,?0*6 '/(;,=,9 ;/, *(<:, 69 *(<:,: ;/, *647(9()030;@ 6- +(;( (*96:: *6<5 ;90,: 0: 6)=06<:3@ ( :,906<: 0::<, ;/(; 9,8<09,: 469, 9,:,(9*/C 7D3< B6/B 4/1B=@ A6/@3A /@3 93G B316<=:=571/: >/@/;3B3@A /A E3:: /A B63 BE= ;/7< 1/B35=@73A =4 B63 4C<1B7=</: =@ 4/1B=@7/: 27AB@70CB7=< =4 7<1=;3 7B 7A >CHH:7<5 E6G B63G 27Q3@ A= ;C16 /1@=AA B63A3 BE= 1=C<B@73A < B63 E=@2A =4 =::7< M,6G E=C:2 B63 >@=2C1B7=< B316<=:=5G 27Q3@ A= 5@3/B:G 03BE33< B63 *<7B32 (B/B3A /<2 #3F71= E63@3/A 7B 27Q3@A A= :7BB:3 03BE33< B63 *<7B32 (B/B3A /<2 3@;/<G =@ />/<N B 7A E3:: 9<=E< B6/B A3:43;>:=G;3<B /<2 7<4=@;/: 3;>:=G;3<B 7< #3F71= /@3 E723A>@3/2 =@ 3F/;>:3 2C@7<5 B63 >3@7=2 1:=A3 B= =4 B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 7< B63 1=C<B@G E/A A3:43;>:=G32 /<=B63@ E3@3 3;>:=G 3@A =@ 3<B@3>@3<3C@A E67:3 /@=C<2 =4 A/:/@732 E=@93@A E3@3 3;>:=G32 7<4=@;/::G 11=@27<5 B= B63 =P17/: AB/B7AB71A B63 ;/5<7BC23 =4 B63 7<4=@;/: A31B=@ =4 B63 #3F71/< 31=<=;G /D3@/532 =4 & 2C@7<5 /<2 E/A @3:/B7D3:G 1=<AB/<B =D3@ B67A >3@7=2 )63A3 4/1BA /@3 23>71B32 7< B63 <3FB I5C@3A (33 5*<,:;( (*065(3 +, 473,6 $ =@ $/B7=</: ;>:=G;3<B (C@D3G <AB7BCB= $/17=</: 23 AB/2UAB71/ 3=5@/4U/ 3 <4=@;SB71/ $ (3:43;>:=G32 E=@93@A /@3 B3@;32 $9()(1(+69,: 769 <,5;( 9670( 3;>:=G3@A =@ 3<B@3>@3<3C@A /@3 B3@;32 (;965,: E67:3 B6=A3 1=<A723@32 /A 7<4=@;/: 3;>:=G33A E=@9 E7B6=CB / E@7BB3< 1=<B@/1B =@ E7B6 / B3;>=@/@G 1=< B@/1B ,67:3 B67A :/AB 23I<7B7=< 7A /@07B@/@G =B63@ /:B3@</B7D3 23I<7B7=<A AC16 /A B63 /0A3<13 =4 A=17/: A31C@7BG 03<3IBA G73:2 / A7;7:/@ A6/@3 < 4/1B B63 @3:/B7D3 1=<AB/<1G =D3@ B7;3 =4 B63 A6/@3 =4 B63 7<4=@;/: A31B=@ 7A 1=<A7AB3<B E7B6 B63 @3:/B7D3 AB/07:7BG =4 B63 7<1=;3 A6/@3A =4 ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< /<2 @=AA %>3@ /B7<5 (C@>:CA 7< B63 $&LA 2/B/ (33 $ C3<B/ (/BT:7B3 23: (C0A31B=@ <4=@;/: 23 :=A =5/@3A .,85* 1403<*56 !*0+1403<*) &2) 2+351&0 1403<**6 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ 7-* &'35 35(* .2 *;.(3 Verbal or Temporary Contract 30% Self Employed 20% 15% 10% Employers or Enterpreneurs 5% Year-Quarter (=C@13 <1C3AB/ $/17=</: 23 ;>:3= $ $ 2004-III 2004-II 2004-I 2003-IV 2003-III 2003-II 2003-I 2002-III 2002-IV 2002-II 2002-I 2001-IV 2001-III 2001-II 2001-I 2000-III 2000-IV 2000-II 1999 0% 1998 Percent of the Labor Force 25% .,85* 2+351&0 !*(735 3+ 7-* *;.(&2 (3231< &6 & 6-&5* 3+ 7-* "37&0 $&08* ))*) 3+ 7-* (3231< Percent of Total Value Added 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year (=C@13 C3<B/ (/BT:7B3 23: (C0A31B=@ <4=@;/: 23 :=A =5/@3A $ )6CA 57D3< B63 /11=C<B7<5 ;3B6=2=:=5G 4=::=E32 7< 1=<AB@C1B7<5 #3F71=LA $& /<2 57D3< B63 ;/5<7BC23 =4 A3:43;>:=G;3<B /<2 7<4=@;/: 3;>:=G;3<B 7< B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 7B 7A <=B >CHH:7<5 E6G 3;>:=G33 1=;>3<A/B7=< /A / A6/@3 =4 & 7A @3:/B7D3:G A;/:: 7< #3F71= < 4/1B B63 :=E A6/@3 =4 3;>:=G33 1=;>3<A/B7=< /<2 B63 1=@@3A>=<27<5:G 6756 A6/@3 =4 @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA 7< & 7A / 1=;;=< >63<=;3<=< 7< =B63@ 1=C<B@73A 7< "/B7< ;3@71/ E7B6 A7;7:/@ 16/@/1B3@7AB71A B= #3F71= 7<1:C2 7<5 A7;7:/@ >3@ 1/>7B/ 7<1=;3 :3D3:A /<2 /11=C<B7<5 ;3B6=2=:=573A )67A 4/1B E6716 1/< 03 A33< 7< )/0:3 0 7A /:A= 23>71B32 7< B63 4=::=E7<5 I5C@3A E6716 A6=E B63A3 A6/@3A 4=@ B63 1/A3 =4 @53<B7</ @/H7: /<2 67:3 4=@ B63 ;=AB @313<B G3/@A 4=@ E6716 B63 $& 2/B/ /@3 /D/7:/0:3 .,85* 314*26&7.32 3+ 1403<**6 &2) 5366 4*5&7.2, !854086 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ .2 5,*27.2& 80% 70% Gross Operating Surplus Percent of GDP 60% 50% 40% Compensation of Employees 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Year (=C@13A 7AB@70C17V< C<17=</: 23: <5@3A= 7@3117V< $/17=</: 23 C3<B/A $/17=</:3A $$ <AB7BCB= $/17=</: 23 AB/2UAB71/ G 3<A=A $ .,85* 314*26&7.32 3+ 1403<**6 &2) 5366 4*5&7.2, !854086 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ .2 5&=.0 60% Gross Operating Surplus 50% Percent of GDP 40% Compensation of Employees 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year (=C@13A =<B/ 2/ '3<2/ 7@3B=@7/ 23 &3A?C7A/A 3>/@B/;3<B= 23 =<B/A $/17=</7A <AB7BCB= @/A7:37@= 23 3=5@/4U/ 3 AB/2UAB71/ .,85* 314*26&7.32 3+ 1403<**6 &2) 5366 4*5&7.2, !854086 &6 & 6-&5* 3+ .2 -.0* 70% Gross Operating Surplus 60% Percent of GDP 50% 40% Compensation of Employees 30% 20% 10% 0% 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year (=C@13A C3<B/ 23 3<3@/17V< 23: <5@3A= C3<B/A 1=<V;71/A <B35@/2/A <C/@7= 23 C3<B/A $/17=</:3A D/@7=CA G3/@A 3>/@B/;3<B= 23 C3<B/A $/17=</:3A 3@3<17/ 23 <4=@;/17V< 3 <D3AB75/17V< AB/2UAB71/ /<1= 3<B@/: 23 67:3 *<4=@BC</B3:G #3F71= /<2 D/@7=CA =B63@ 1=C<B@73A 2= <=B >@=D723 2/B/ =< %(&* /<2 =<:G 27D723 & 7<B= ;>:=G33 =;>3<A/B7=< @=AA %>3@/B7<5 (C@>:CA /<2 $3B <27@31B )/F3A A / @3AC:B B63 >@=0:3; =4 6=E B= /28CAB B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ @3;/7<A )63 4=::=E7<5 A31B7=< =CB:7<3A / ;3B6=2 4=@ =0B/7<7<5 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 4@=; 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ B6/B 3F>:717B:G B/93A 7<B= /11=C<B B63 >@=0:3; =4 B63 7<1=;3 4@=; B63 A3:43;>:=G32 /A E3:: /A 4@=; B6=A3 3;>:=G32 7<4=@;/::G &(735 6-&5*6 +531 386*-30) !859*< &7& )63 7<B3@/1B7=< 03BE33< 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ /<2 /55@35/B3 2/B/ 7A <=B <3E =CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ /@3 BG>71/::G 1=::31B32 :3AA 4@3?C3<B:G B6/< B63 $& 2/B/ 35 3D3@G BE= B= ID3 G3/@A )6CA B63G /@3 <=B CA32 27@31B:G 7< >CBB7<5 B=53B63@ B63 ?C/@B3@:G /<2 G3/@:G $& 2/B/ $3D3@B63:3AA 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ /@3 @35C:/@:G CA32 B= 16319 B63 1=<A7A B3<1G =4 B63 $& 2/B/ < >/@B71C:/@ B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 B=B/: 3F>3<27BC@3A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 7A @35C:/@:G 1=;>/@32 B= B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 1=<AC;>B7=< 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ /A 7A B63 1=;>=A7B7=< =4 3F>3<27BC@3A 0G 1/B35=@73A E7B6 B63 1=;>=A7B7=< =4 1=<AC;>B7=< =<D3@A3:G B63 $& 2/B/ /@3 CA32 B= 1=;>:3;3<B B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 7< B63 1=<AB@C1B7=< =4 1=<AC;3@ >@713 7<2713A >/@B71C:/@:G 7< B63 3AB7;/B7=< =4 B63 3F>3<27BC@3 A6/@3A =4 13@B/7< 7B3;A B6/B /@3 9<=E< B= 03 C<23@@3>=@B32 7< B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ AC16 /A /:1=6=: /<2 B=0/11= )63 16=713 =4 E63B63@ B= CA3 ;71@=2/B/ AC16 /A B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ =@ I@; =@ >:/<B:3D3: 2/B/ =@ /55@35/B3 2/B/ AC16 /A B63 $& 7< =@23@ B= =0B/7< 3AB7;/B3A =4 B63 >/@/;3B3@A <33232 B= 1/:70@/B3 27Q3@3<B 31=<=;71 ;=23:A 6/A 033< :/@53:G 2/B/2@7D3< < >/@B71C:/@ A=;3 >/@/;3B3@A 6/D3 033< =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ 57D3< B6/B B63G /@3 @3/27:G 1=;>CB/0:3 4@=; B63; )67A 6/A 033< B63 1/A3 C> B= <=E E7B6 B63 :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: A6/@3A =4 7<1=;3 #=@3 1=;>:71/B32 >/@/;3B3@A E6716 1/<<=B 03 27@31B:G =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ /@3 37B63@ 3AB7;/B32 4@=; ;71@=2/B/ =@ /@3 =0B/7<32 4@=; >@3D7=CA ;71@=31=<= ;3B@71 ABC273A )67A 7A B63 1/A3 4=@ 3F/;>:3 E7B6 B63 7<B3@B3;>=@/: 3:/AB717BG =4 AC0AB7BCB7=< )63@3 7A 7< >@7<17>:3 <= @3/A=< E6G 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 1/<<=B 03 3AB7;/B32 4@=; ;71@=2/B/ ,63B63@ B63 $& 2/B/ =@ B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ /@3 CA32 B= =0B/7< / 57D3< >/@/;3B3@ B63 @3AC:BA =0B/7<32 4@=; 3/16 BG>3 =4 2/B/ ;/G 27Q3@ A75<7I1/<B:G #=@3=D3@ B63 1=;>CB/B7=</: 3F>3@7;3<BA 4@=; 1/:70@/B32 ;=23:A /@3 A=;3B7;3A 6756:G A3<A7B7D3 B= B63 /1BC/: 16=713 =4 B6/B >/@/;3B3@ )6CA 4/1B=@ A6/@3A /@3 7;>=@B/<B >/@/;3B3@A E6=A3 ;3/AC@3;3<B 23A3@D3A 1/@34C: /BB3<B7=< )63 B63=@3B71/: 0/A7A 0367<2 B67A ;3B6=2=:=5G 7A AB@/756B4=@E/@2 )63 I@AB >/@B @3:73A =< B63 4C<2/;3<B/: 723<B7BG =4 </B7=</: 7<1=;3 /<2 >@=2C1B /1 1=C<B7<5 /11=@27<5 B= E6716 B=B/: =CB>CB =@ >@=2C1B7=< =4 /< 31=<=;G A6=C:2 03 723<B71/: B= B=B/: 3F>3<27BC@3 =4 B63 31=<=;G E6716 7< BC@< A6=C:2 03 723< B71/: B= B=B/: 7<1=;3 =4 B63 31=<=;G )67A 723<B7BG 7A BG>71/::G 23>71B32 7< B63 17@1C:/@ J=E ;=23: E6716 A6=EA B6/B 57D3< B6/B /:: 4/1B=@A =4 >@=2C1B7=< /@3 C:B7;/B3:G =E<32 0G B63 6=CA36=:2 A31B=@ 7< / ;/@93B 31=<=;G B=B/: =CB>CB 7A 723<B71/: B= B=B/: 3F>3<27BC@3 /<2 B= B=B/: 7<1=;3 )63 A31=<2 >/@B 7A AB/B7AB71/: A/;>:7<5 B63=@G < >/@B71C:/@ 6=CA36=:2 AC@ D3G 2/B/ 1=::31B32 B6@=C56 @/<2=; =@ AB@/B7I32 A/;>:7<5 B6/B /@3 @3>@3A3<B/B7D3 =4 B63 >=>C:/B7=< /B B63 </B7=</: :3D3: 7< >@7<17>:3 1/< 03 CA32 B= =0B/7< C<07 /A32 /<2 1=<A7AB3<B 3AB7;/B3A =4 /<G >=>C:/B7=< >/@/;3B3@ =4 7<B3@3AB < B67A 1/A3 B63 >=>C:/B7=< >/@/;3B3@A =4 7<B3@3AB B6/B <332 B= 03 3AB7;/B32 /@3 B63 4@/1B7=<A =4 B=B/: 7<1=;3 B6/B /11@C3 B= :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: ,3 <3FB >@=>=A3 B6@33 27Q3@3<B 3AB7;/B=@A =4 B63 A6/@3 =4 :/0=@ 7< B=B/: '35/@27<5 B63 :/BB3@ />>@=/16 /<A3< /<2 319;/< 6/D3 1@7B717H32 B63 1/:70@/B7=< ;3B6=2=:=5G A7<13 B63@3 7A / E723 D/@73BG =4 >=7<B 3AB7;/B3A =4 B63 A/;3 >/@/;3B3@ /D/7:/0:3 7< 27Q3@3<B ABC273A )6CA =<3 1/<<=B A>3/9 =4 ;/, 3:/AB717BG =4 AC0AB7BCB7=< A 3F>:/7<32 7< (31B7=< /0=D3 7<1=;3 7A <=B 723<B71/: B= =CB>CB /<2 B= 3F>3<27BC@3 < >/@B71C:/@ $3B /1B=@ &/G;3<BA $3B <27@31B )/F3A /<2 3>@317/B7=< 6/D3 B= 03 AC0B@/1B32 4@=; 7< =@23@ B= =0B/7< $3B $/B7=</: <1=;3 =@ B63 A/93 =4 A7;>:717BG 7< B63 4=::=E7<5 A31B7=<A E3 75<=@3 B67A 27Q3@3<13 /<2 @343@ 7<27AB7<1B:G B= 7<1=;3 /<2 =CB>CB 7<1=;3 *<23@ 1=<AB/<B @3BC@<A B= A1/:3 7<1=;3 A6=C:2 03 3F6/CAB32 03BE33< >/G;3<BA B= :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: A= B63 1/>7B/: A6/@3 1/< 03 =0B/7<32 /A / @3A72C/: =<13 B63 :/0=@ A6/@3 6/A 033< 3AB7;/B32 )6CA C<23@ B67A /AAC;>B7=< =<3 <332 =<:G 3AB7;/B3 B63 >/@/;3B3@ 1=@@3A>=<27<5 B= B63 A6/@3 =4 7<1=;3 B6/B /11@C3A B= :/0=@ )63 @3/A=< E6G B6@33 3AB7;/B=@A =4 / A7<5:3 >/@/;3B3@ /@3 >@=>=A32 7A BE=4=:2 7@AB E63< CA7<5 ;71@=2/B/ B63@3 /@3 BG>71/::G ;/<G E/GA =4 =0 B/7<7<5 /< 3AB7;/B3 =4 / A7<5:3 >/@/;3B3@ /<2 B67A >/>3@ 7A <= 3F13>B7=< )63 />>@=/16 B/93< 63@3 7A B= >@3A3<B /A ;/<G 3AB7;/B3A /A B63 2/B/ /::=E =<3 B= =0B/7< /<2 :3B B63 @3/23@ =@ CA3@ 231723 E6716 =<3 7A ;=@3 />>@=>@7/B3 (31=<2 B63 >@3A3<13 =4 / :/@53 4@/1B7=< =4 6=CA36=:2A B6/B @3>=@B 6/D7<5 H3@= 7<1=;3 A=;3B67<5 BG>71/: 7< 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 5@3/B:G 7<1@3/A3A B63 AB/<2/@2 3@@=@ =4 B63 3AB7;/B3A )= /22@3AA B67A 7AAC3 E3 >@=>=A32 /< 3AB7;/B=@ B6/B 3F1:C23A 6=CA36=:2A 7< B63 B=> /<2 0=BB=; =4 B63 7<1=;3 27AB@70CB7=< A= B6/B B63A3 6=CA36=:2A E7:: <=B A93E B63 ;3/< ,3 <3FB 23A1@703 3/16 3AB7;/B=@ "3B 03 B=B/: 6=CA36=:2 7<1=;3 4@=; /:: :/0=@ A=C@13A 03 B=B/: 6=CA3 6=:2 7<1=;3 /<2 03 B63 E3756B =4 3F>/<A7=< 4/1B=@ E63@3 7A B63 7<23F =4 6=CA36=:2A ,3 1/< B63< =0B/7< B6@33 27Q3@3<B 3AB7;/B3A =4 >/@/ ;3B3@ </;3:G B63 A6/@3 =4 :/0=@ 7< B=B/: 7<1=;3 )63 I@AB 3AB7;/B=@ 7A 57D3< 0G )67A 3AB7;/B=@ /22A C> B=B/: :/0=@ 7<1=;3 /1@=AA /:: 6=CA36=:2A /<2 B63< 27D723A 7B 0G B63 AC; /1@=AA /:: 6=CA36=:2A =4 B=B/: 7<1=;3 < B67A A3<A3 B63 I@AB 3AB7;/B=@ E3 >@=>=A3 4=@ B63 :/0=@ A6/@3 7A B63 =<3 B6/B ;=@3 1:=A3:G @3A3;0:3A B63 E/G B67A A6/@3 7A 1/:1C:/B32 CA7<5 B63 $& 2/B/ %<3 =4 B63 2@/E0/19A =4 B67A 3AB7;/B=@ 7A B6/B 7B 7A 3?C7D/:3<B B= E3756B7<5 3/16 6=CA36=:2LA :/0=@ A6/@3 0G B6/B 6=CA36=:2LA 7<1=;3 /A / A6/@3 =4 B63 B=B/: 7<1=;3 =4 /:: 6=CA36=:2A A AC16 7B 57D3A 27A>@=>=@B7=</B3 E3756B B= 6=CA36=:2A E7B6 7D3< B6/B B63 I@AB 3AB7;/B=@ 7A / @/B7= =4 A/;>:3 ;3/<A B63 D/@7/<13 =4 B67A 3AB7;/B=@ ;/G 03 4=C<2 CA7<5 B63 23:B/ ;3B6=2 < >/@B71C:/@ 7BA D/@7/<13 7A 57D3< 0G B63 4=::=E7<5 3F>@3AA7=< =@ ;=@3 23B/7:A A33 =:203@53@ < =@23@ B= A33 B67A :3B 03 B63 B=B/: 7<1=;3 =4 /:: 6=CA36=:2A %<3 1/< B63< ;C:B7>:G /<2 27D723 B63 <C;3@/B=@ =4 B63 3AB7;/B=@ 0G B63 B=B/: 7<1=;3 =4 3/16 6=CA36=:2 B= =0B/7< 6756 7<1=;3 ;=AB =4 E6716 BG>71/::G 6/D3 / :=E3@ :/0=@ A6/@3 B6/< B63 /D3@/53 6=CA36=:2 < =@23@ B= /22@3AA B67A >@=0:3; E3 /:A= CA3 B63 4=::=E7<5 3AB7;/B=@ )67A A31=<2 3AB7;/B=@ I@AB 1=;>CB3A B63 :/0=@ A6/@3 4=@ 3/16 6=CA36=:2 /<2 B63< /D3@/53A B63A3 A6/@3A /1@=AA /:: 6=CA36=:2A 57D7<5 B63 A/;3 E3756B B= 3/16 6=CA36=:2 < B67A A3<A3 B67A 3AB7;/B=@ 57D3A / 03BB3@ 3AB7;/B3 =4 B63 :/0=@ A6/@3 =4 B63 BG>71/: =@ @3>@3A3<B/B7D3 6=CA36=:2 *<4=@BC</B3:G B67A 3AB7;/B=@ 7A /:A= /Q31B32 /:B6=C56 B= / :3AA3@ 3FB3<B B6/< B63 I@AB =<3 0G B63 >@3A3<13 =4 / :/@53 <C;03@ =4 6=CA36=:2A E6= @3>=@B /< 7<1=;3 =4 H3@= < =@23@ B= /22@3AA B67A >@=0:3; E3 /:A= CA3 B63 4=::=E7<5 3AB7;/B=@ E63@3 7A B63 A3B =4 6=CA36=:2A :=1/B32 03BE33< B63 B6 /<2 B63 B6 >3@ 13<B7:3A =4 B63 7<1=;3 27AB@70CB7=< )67A :/AB 3AB7;/B=@ =4 B63 A6/@3 =4 :/0=@ 7< B=B/: 7<1=;3 7A 723<B71/: B= B63 A31=<2 =<3 3F13>B B6/B B63 /D3@/53 7A B/93< 8CAB 4=@ B6=A3 6=CA36=:2A :=1/B32 7< B63 ;722:3 =4 B63 7<1=;3 27AB@70CB7=< )63 >C@>=A3 =4 B67A :/AB 3AB7;/B=@ 7A B6/B B63 3AB7;/B3 E7:: <=B 03 /Q31B32 0G 3FB@3;3 =0A3@D/B7=<A >/@B71C:/@:G 0G B6=A3 6=CA36=:2A B6/B @3>=@B H3@= 7<1=;3 A= B6/B B63 AB/<2/@2 3@@=@A =4 B63 3AB7;/B3A ;/G 03 ;=@3 @3/A=</0:3 .1.7&7.326 3+ 7-* 53436*) *7-3)303,< ,63< 23/:7<5 E7B6 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 7B 7A <313AA/@G B= /22@3AA 13@B/7< >@=0:3;A E6716 2= <=B /@7A3 E63< CA7<5 /55@35/B3 2/B/ AC16 /A B63 $& )63@3 /@3 /B :3/AB 4=C@ @3/A=<A E6G B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63A3 3AB7;/B3A 1=C:2 27Q3@ 4@=; B6=A3 7< B63 >=>C:/B7=< )63A3 @3/A=<A A6=C:2 03 A33< /A :7;7B/B7=<A =4 B63 2/B/ /<2 B63 >@=>=A32 ;3B6=2=:=5G )63 4=C@ ;/7< >@=0:3;A /@3 7 A/;>:7<5 3@@=@ 77 ;7AA7<5 =@ 7<1=;>:3B3 2/B/ 777 ;3/AC@3;3<B 3@@=@ /<2 7D 27Q3@3<13A 7< B63 @343@3<13 >3@7=2 ,3 <3FB 23A1@703 3/16 =4 B63; 0@73JG /<2 27A1CAA 6=E B63G ;/G /Q31B B63 @3AC:BA =4 B63 3AB7;/B7=< < B63 1/A3 =4 A/;>:7<5 3@@=@ 7B 7A E3:: 9<=E< B6/B /:: A/;>:32 2/B/ 6/D3 / AB/B7AB71/: 3@@=@ /AA=17/B32 E7B6 B63 4/1B B6/B B63G /@3 AC0A3BA =4 B63 >=>C:/B7=< )63 ;/5<7BC23 =4 B67A 3@@=@ 1/< 03 ?C/<B7I32 B6@=C56 B63 AB/<2/@2 3@@=@ E6716 7A / 4C<1B7=< =4 B63 D/@7/<13 /<2 =4 B63 A7H3 =4 B63 A/;>:3 CA32 )= B63 3FB3<B B6/B B63 A/;>:3 A7H3A =4 B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3GA CA32 E3@3 16=A3< B= 3<AC@3 B63 @3>@3A3<B/B7D3<3AA =4 B63 A/;>:3 B63 AB/<2/@2 3@@=@A A6=C:2 <=B /Q31B B63 A75 <7I1/<13 =4 B63 3AB7;/B3A $3D3@B63:3AA B63 >@3D/:3<13 7< B67A BG>3 =4 AC@D3G =4 4 @3>@3A3<BA B63 @/<2=; D/@7/0:3 4=@ B=B/: 7<1=;3 E3 A3:31B B63 D/:C3A /<2 AC16 B6/B /<2 /<2 B63< I<2 B63 ;3/< 4=@ 6=CA36=:2A E6=A3 7<1=;3 :73A 7< B63 A3B 6=CA36=:2A E6= @3>=@B /< 7<1=;3 =4 H3@= 5@3/B:G 7<1@3/A3A B63 AB/<2/@2 3@@=@ =4 B63 3AB7;/B3A < =@23@ B= /22@3AA B67A 7AAC3 B63 >/>3@ >@=>=A3A B6@33 /:B3@</ B7D3 3AB7;/B=@A B63 B67@2 =4 E6716 7A /< /D3@/53 =D3@ 6=CA36=:2A 7< B63 ;722:3 =4 B63 7<1=;3 27AB@70CB7=< /<2 7A B6CA <=B /Q31B32 0G B63 >@3D/:3<13 =4 H3@=3A < B63 1/A3 =4 ;7AA7<5 =@ 7<1=;>:3B3 2/B/ B67A 1=C:2 03 2C3 37B63@ B= B63 @3A>=<23<B B63 7<B3@D73E3@ =@ B63 1=27<5 >@=13AA )63 ;=AB B@=C0:3A=;3 7A B63 1/A3 =4 <=<@3A>=<A3 0G B63 @3A>=<23<B A :=<5 /A <=<@3A>=<A3A /@3 @/<2=; 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B63 $& /<2 4@=; B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 4=@ B63 1/A3 =4 #3F71= "-* &6* 3+ *;.(3 < B63 1/A3 =4 "/B7< ;3@71/ :U/A >@=D723A / 1=;>@363<A7D3 /</:GA7A =4 B63 A=C@13A =4 5@=EB6 4=@ A3D3< 31=<=;73A 7< B63 @357=< 7<1:C27<5 #3F71= %<3 =4 B63 ;/7< 1=<1:CA7=<A @3/1632 7A B6/B 1/>7B/: E/A B63 ;/7< A=C@13 =4 5@=EB6 =D3@ B63 >3@7=2 7< /:: =4 B63 1=C<B@73A /</:GH32 )63 @3AC:BA 63 =0B/7<32 E3@3 :/@53:G 1=<I@;32 0G (/<B/3::/ E6= >3@4=@;32 / A7;7:/@ /</:GA7A 4=@ B63 1/A3 =4 #3F71= < >/@B71C:/@ B63 :/BB3@ 2=1C;3<BA #3F71=LA 5@=EB6 3F>3@73<13 2C@7<5 B63 >3@7=2 /<2 @3/163A A7;7:/@ 1=<1:CA7=<A 7< B63 A3<A3 B6/B 1/>7B/: /11=C<B32 4=@ ;=AB =4 B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 >3@ 1/>7B/ =CB>CB < >/@B71C:/@ 63 4=C<2 B6/B 1/>7B/: >3@ 1/>7B/ /11=C<B32 4=@ 1:=A3 B= =4 B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 @3/: & >3@ 1/>7B/ =D3@ B63 >3@7=2 E67:3 )& /11=C<B32 4=@ B63 =B63@ <=B63@ 93G 4/1B 2=1C;3<B32 0G :U/A 4=@ B63 "/B7< ;3@71/< 1=C<B@73A /</:GH32 /<2 (/<B/3::/ 7< B63 1/A3 =4 #3F71= 7A B6/B B63@3 6/A 033< / ;/8=@ A:=E2=E< 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 B63 @357=<LA @3/: & /4B3@ < B63 1/A3 =4 #3F71= 4@=; C<B7: @3/: & >3@ 1/>7B/ 5@3E /B /< /D3@/53 =4 >3@ /<<C; < 1=<B@/AB 4@=; C<B7: @3/: & >3@ 1/>7B/ 5@3E /B /< /D3@/53 =4 >3@ /<<C; )63 3D=:CB7=< =4 @3/: >3@ 1/>7B/ & 7A 23>71B32 7< B63 <3FB I5C@3 )63A3 5@=EB6 @/B3A /@3 1/:1C:/B32 CA7<5 B63 2/B/ 7< B63 ,=@:2 &3<< )/0:3 +3@A7=< 0G 3AB=< (C;;3@A /<2 B3< .,85* *&0 4*5 (&4.7& .2 *;.(3 9.1 Ln of real GDP per capita 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 7.9 Year (=C@13 ,=@:2 &3<< )/0:3 +3@A7=< 0G 3AB=< (C;;3@A /<2 B3< 7D3< B67A A6/@> A:=E2=E< 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 @3/: & >3@ 1/>7B/ A=;3 =4 B63 ?C3AB7=<A B6/B </BC@/::G /@7A3 /@3 ,6/B >@=2C132 B67A A:=E2=E< ,6716 4/1B=@ =@ 4/1B=@A =4 >@=2C1B7=< E3@3 @3A>=<A70:3 =@ E/A )& B63 1C:>@7B )63 @3137D32 9<=E:3253 23@7D32 4@=; B63 5@=EB6 /11=C<B7<5 ;3B6=2=:=5G /<2 A=C@13A =4 5@=EB6 3F3@17A3A CA7<5 B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A 4@=; B63 $& 2/B/ 7A BE=4=:2 7@AB 1/>7B/: 6/A 033< B63 :/@53AB 1=<B@70CB=@ B= =CB>CB 5@=EB6 7< "/B7< ;3@71/ (31=<2 B63 A:=E2=E< =@ 4/:: 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 >3@ 1/>7B/ & /4B3@ E/A ;/7<:G B63 @3AC:B =4 / A6/@> 4/:: 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 )& < 4/1B 4=@ A3D3@/: G3/@A B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 )& 7A 4=C<2 B= 03 <35/B7D3 =B6 1=<1:CA7=<A :/@53:G @3AB =< B63 @3:/B7D3:G :/@53 7<1=;3 A6/@3 =4 1/>7B/: 7< #3F71= /<2 =B63@ "/B7< ;3@71/< 1=C<B@73A E6716 /11=@27<5 B= B63 $& 2/B/ 6/A 033< /@=C<2 =< /D3@/53 ,3 <3FB @3>3/B B63 5@=EB6 /11=C<B7<5 3F3@17A3 23A1@7032 7< B63 >@3D7=CA A31B7=< 0CB CA7<5 B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ )63 2/B/ 4=@ =CB>CB :/0=@ /<2 1/>7B/: 4=@ B67A 3F3@17A3 E3@3 =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 &3<< ,=@:2 )/0:3 +3@A7=< A= 7B 1/< 03 3/A7:G @3>:71/B32 )63 B=B/: >=>C:/B7=< 7< B63 1=C<B@G 7A CA32 /A / >@=FG 4=@ B63 :/0=@ 4=@13 E67:3 1/>7B/: 7A (33 3AB=< (C;;3@A /<2 B3< 1=<AB@C1B32 4@=; B63 7<D3AB;3<B A3@73A CA7<5 B63 >3@>3BC/: 7<D3<B=@G ;3B6=2 A B63 <3FB B/0:3 /<2 I5C@3 A6=E B63 @3AC:BA 4@=; B63 5@=EB6 /11=C<B7<5 3F3@17A3A CA7<5 B63 $& 2/B/ /<2 B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ AB/<2 7< A6/@> 1=<B@/AB "&'0* !385(*6 3+ 53:7- .2 *;.(3 />7B/: (6/@3A &3@7=2 @=EB6 '/B3A (=C@13 %E< 1/:1C:/B7=<A CA7<5 2/B/ 4@=; B63 ,=@:2 &3<< )/0:3 +3@A7=< 0G 3AB=< (C;;3@A /<2 B3< $ &3@13<B 1=<B@70CB7=<A /@3 03:=E B63 5@=EB6 @/B3A 7< 7B/:71A ,3 /AAC;3 /< /<<C/: 23>@317/B7=< @/B3 =4 /<2 /< 7<7B7/: 1/>7B/:=C>BCB @/B7= =4 />>@=F7;/B3:G *<23@ B63A3 /AAC;>B7=<A B63 B7;3 A3@73A 4=@ B63 <D3AB;3<B (6/@3 =4 '3/: @=AA =;3AB71 &@=2C1B 7;>:73A /< /D3@/53 1/>7B/:=CB>CB @/B7= =4 2C@7<5 B63 >3@7=2 .,85* "37&0 &(735 53)8(7.9.7< .2 *;.(3 700 600 Labor share = 0.66 Index (1950=100) 500 400 300 Labor share = 0.34 200 100 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 0 Year (=C@13 %E< 1/:1C:/B7=<A CA7<5 2/B/ 4@=; B63 ,=@:2 &3<< )/0:3 +3@A7=< 0G 3AB=< (C;;3@A /<2 B3< )63 BE= ;/7< 7;>:71/B7=<A =4 CA7<5 B63 4/1B=@ A6/@3A =0B/7<32 4@=; B63 6=CA36=:2 AC@D3G 2/B/ 7< B67A 5@=EB6 /11=C<B7<5 3F3@17A3 /@3 /A 4=::=EA 7@AB 1/>7B/: >3@ 1/>7B/ 6/A /11=C<B32 4=@ :3AA B6/< =4 B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 @3/: & >3@ 1/>7B/ 7< #3F71= =D3@ B63 >3@7=2 E67:3 )& 6/A /11=C<B32 4=@ /@=C<2 (31=<2 B63 A:=E2=E< =0A3@D32 7< #3F71= 2C@7<5 B63 A E/A 7<2332 ;/7<:G B63 @3AC:B =4 / A6/@> 4/:: 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 )& /4B3@ E6716 1=<B7<C32 C> C<B7: $3D3@B63:3AA @/B63@ B6/< 3F6707B7<5 / <35/B7D3 5@=EB6 @/B3 7< B63 >3@7=2 )& 5@=EB6 E/A 7< 4/1B >=A7B7D3 #=@3=D3@ )& 5@3E /B /0=CB >3@ /<<C; 7< B63 >3@7=2 E6716 7A 67563@ B6/< B63 /D3@/53 =4 4=@ B63 E6=:3 A/;>:3 >3@7=2 )6CA 7< 1=<B@/AB B= B63 5@=EB6 ;7@/1:3A 3F>3@73<132 0G A3D3@/: (=CB6 /AB A7/< 31=<=;73A 2C@7<5 B63 A /<2 A E6716 E3@3 ;/7<:G B63 @3AC:B =4 1/>7B/: 233>3<7<5 7< #3F71= B63 ;/7< 2@7D3@ =4 5@=EB6 2C@7<5 B63 A/;3 >3@7=2 E/A )& )63 4/:: 7< B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 >3@ 1/>7B/ & 7< #3F71= 2C@7<5 B63 LA O/ >3@7=2 1=;;=<:G 9<=E< /A B63 :=AB 231/23O E/A /:A= :/@53:G B63 @3AC:B =4 / 4/:: 7< )& $3D3@B63:3AA B63 5@=EB6 @/B3 =4 )& E/A >=A7B7D3 7< B63 >3@7=2 /<2 5@3E @/>72:G 7< B63 >3@7=2 (33 .=C<5 4=@ 3D723<13 =< B63 (=CB6 /AB A7/< 5@=EB6 3F>3@73<13 &0.'5&7.32 #/<G 1/:70@/B32 31=<=;71 ;=23:A /<2 B63 <C;3@71/: 3F>3@7;3<BA =0B/7<32 4@=; 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