Surviving A Volatile Environment with the Help of Peer Groups

Anuncio
2/22/2016
Surviving A Volatile Environment with the
Help of Peer Groups
David Hughes
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
Group Members ‐ SLO
Own acreage
Leased
acreage
Crop
Cattle
TOTAL ACREAGE
Crop Has
Leased Crop Has
Total Agric Has.
Intensidad Sec.
4
6
9
10
2353
2.252
905
2.598
1.817
122
1.626
1.217
691
2353
2.252
52
25
957
2.720
3.443
1.217
1674
1155
1155
696
52
748
2142
122
2264
916
1626
2542
1,33
1,34
1,37
1,43
682
30%
192
21%
200
8%
940
52%
1674
1,33
Cattle land
% of owned acreage
Services
3
550
23%
Planter
Spayer
Combine
Silos
Trucks
Planter
Sprayer
14
16
17
5.133
2.935
has
5.824
2.935
has
has
has
2671
691
3362
1435
1.217
1217
1,68
1,26
1,61
2784
54%
793
27%
1435
has
has
has
has
Planter
Sprayer
Combine
Silos
Trucks
1
2/22/2016
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
Crea Seguí – la Oriental 2014-15
• Owned acreage
• Leased acreage
• Total acreage
• Owned cropland
• Leased cropland
• Owned cattle acreage
17.994 has
4.405 has
21,870 has
10.862 has
4.405 has
6.106 has
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
2
2/22/2016
Crea Seguí – La Oriental
Group´s Mision statement
2002 y 2012
Seek the growth of its members, both as business
men and as persons
Sharing, exchanging and debating ideas,
experiences and knowledge
In a motivating environment, with respect, trust,
humility and sincerity
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
Crea Seguí – La Oriental
The result of each meeting is a reflection of each members responsability
in providing information, and discussion
CREA Method
•
•
•
•
Writen valuations at end of each meeting, and analisis at year end
Moderator rotates, each meeting a different one
Secretary rotates, each meeting a different one
Extended and relaxed exchange of new issues (weather, crops,
purchases, etc), witha previous exchange on hard numbers
• What we cannot do as individuals, we try to do as a group.
• What we cannot do as a group we try to do as a Region
• What we cannot do as a Region we try to do as an organization
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
3
2/22/2016
CREA Groups in North Buenos Aires Region
9 CREA Groups
(+ 1 Group in Formation)
75 CREA Members
115.000 has. in Total 90.000 has. in agriculture
25.000 has. in beef production
Production – Crop Average yields
Trigo
4833
Cebada
4750
Averages
09/10 to 13/14
Colza
1336
Arveja
2478
In Kgs/ha
(= lbs/acre)
Soja 2
s/Trigo
2460
Soja 2
s/Cebada
2650
Soja 2
s/Colza
2883
Soja 2
s/Arveja
3007
Maíz
temprano
8870
Maíz tardío
9451
Soja 1ra
3745
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
4
2/22/2016
Some examples of information generated
and how we use it
CONSORCIO REGIONAL DE EXPERIMENTACION AGRICOLA
CREA
NUEVOS CRITERIOS PARA LA PRODUCCION RURAL
SOYBEAN Historical yields (blue line) in kgs/ha
acreage (columns) in hectares
500 0
10, 000
4401
Superficie total
450 0
9,0 00
3893
RENDIMIENTO MEDIO
3559 3478
400 0
3174 3226 3160
350 0
300 0
3802
3922 4010
3648 3575
3548 3470
3775
8,0 00
7,0 00
2858 2851 2836
2673
6,0 00
2198
250 0
5,0 00
200 0
4,0 00
1388
6,197
150 0
3,689 3,425
100 0
2,404
500
0
577
539
445
791
796
1,243
4,206 4,526
5,305
5,094 4,725
2,960
2,396
3,400
4,392
3,0 00
5,163
1,990
2,0 00
1,0 00
0
94/5 95/6 96/7 97/8 98/9 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
5
2/22/2016
Climate for Junín 2014‐15 – For Soybean
26
Radiación (Mj/m2)
28
24
T e m p M e d ia °C
26
22
20
18
16
T x historica
T x campaña
14
PC Soja 2°
PC Soja1°
Rad Histórica
24
22
20
18
16
12
Rad Capaña
PC Soja 1°
PC Soja 2°
2 0 /3
1 0 /3
2 9 /2
2 0 /2
1 0 /2
3 1 /1
2 0 /1
1 0 /1
3 1 /1 2
2 0 /1 2
1 0 /1 2
3 0 /1 1
2 0 /1 1
1 0 /1 1
14
31/12 10/1 20/1 31/1 10/2 20/2 29/2 10/3 20/3 31/3
Fecha
Fecha
1
Ind Estres
0.9
Ind Estrés CL
0.8
Ind Estrés CC
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Ind X en PC CL=0.89
Ind X en PC CC=0.98
0.3
Junín
0.2
0.1
Field tests ZNBA
Disease control
in Full season Soybean 10 year average
27-2
24-2
21-2
18-2
15-2
9-2
12-2
6-2
3-2
31-1
28-1
25-1
22-1
19-1
16-1
13-1
10-1
7-1
4-1
1-1
0
with
Symptoms in R3
w/o Symptoms
in R3
Average
response
296 kg/ha
120 kg/ha
Economic
Response
97% de los casos
62% de los casos
1
COSTO
0.9
Probabilidad %
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Escenario S/ Enferm R3-R4
0.3
Escenario C/ Enferm R3-R4
Rta Gral
0.2
0.1
0
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
Respuesta Rinde (kg/ha)
6
2/22/2016
Field Tests of planting dates Crea S‐LO
2002‐03 Niño year
DM 4800
20 Sept vs 20 Oct vs 10 Nov
EQ
35 cm
Los Toldos 52 cm
Sept
3720
3501
Oct
4001
4390
4000
3501
3000
3720
Nov
52 cm
4760
0
35 cm
52 cm
Oct
Nov
6157
5134
6000
LE
Junín
35 cm
1000
8000
Oct
5134
5050
4001
2000
Sept
Sept
6157
5188
4760
4390
5000
Nov
5188
4000
5305
5050
5305
35 cm
52 cm
2000
0
Sept
8000
LM
Segui
35 cm
52 cm
Sept
6320
5768
Oct
5469
5415
6320
6000
Nov
4000
4974
5768
Oct
Nov
5469
5415
4974
35 cm
2000
52 cm
0
Sept
Oct
Nov
Field tests of planting dates Crea S‐LO
2004‐05 Niño year
DM 4800
20 Sept vs 20 Oct vs 10 Nov
4600
4482
4200
LL
Rojas‐Junín
35 cm
52 cm
Sept
4482
4304
Oct
4345
4201
Nov
4065
4201
4000
4065
3800
5000
4000
35 cm
52 cm
Sept
3600
3723
Oct
4266
4564
Nov
4604
52 cm
4304
Sept
SJ
Rawson
35 cm
4345
4400
3000
3723
Oct
Nov
4564
4604
4266
3600
2000
35 cm
1000
52 cm
0
Sept
Oct
4500
LE
Junín
35 cm
52 cm
Sept
3707
3836
Oct
3460
3883
Nov
4107
4000
3500
3836
3707
3000
Sept
3883
Nov
4107
35 cm
3460
Oct
52 cm
Nov
7
2/22/2016
Budgeted Direct Costs
Corn & Soybean
IMPLANTAC
Labores
Semilla
Curasemilla
Insecticidas
Herbicidas
Fungicidas c/aplic
P
N
Seguros
Monitoreo
Soybean
80
23
8
18
80
20
30
Late Corn
86
158
6
67
38
54
88
22
91
38
48
56
22
303
549
498
80
383
90
639
90
588
22
8
Cosecha
TOTAl
800
Early Corn
80
158
ISO Gross Margins Maíz – Soja 1
2015‐16
SOJA 250
SOJA 240
700
MZ TEMP 160
SOJA 230
SOJA 220, 5.5
600
MZ TEMP 150
SOJA 210
SOJA 200
500
MZ TEMP 140
SOJA 190
400
MZ TEMP 130
300
MZ TEMP 120
200
MZ TEMP 110
100
MZ TEMP 100
0
3
‐100
3.5
GM
USD/Ha
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
Yields ton/ha
‐200
‐300
8
2/22/2016
SLO ‐ Niño year and Early Corn yields 12.0
Tempr RINDE
9.6
10.0
7.9
8.0 6.7 7.2 6.9
5.7
6.0
8.4
7.4
8.2
7.2
6.3
10.6
10.0
9.1 9.2 9.1
10.1
9.0
8.3
8.8
6.1 6.2
8.5
6.4
4.0
3.7
2.0
0.0
SLO – Late Corn and Soybean indexed yields
ÍNDICE ‐ Años Niño y Niña
140
120
100
80
60
40
Mz TARD
Soja 1
20
0
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/8
08/9
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
9
2/22/2016
Late Corn yields and Soybean yields
Corn
yields
kgs/ha
Soybean
yields
Kgs/ha
Rendimiento ‐ Años Niño y Niña
12000
5000
4500
10000
4000
3500
8000
3000
6000
2500
2000
4000
1500
Mz Tard
1000
Soja 1
2000
500
0
0
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/8
08/9
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
SLO – Early Corn yields and soybean yields
Corn
yields
kgs/ha
Soybean
yields
Kgs/ha
5000
Años Niño y Niña
12000
4500
10000
4000
3500
8000
3000
6000
2500
2000
4000
1500
Mz Tempr
1000
Soja 1
2000
500
0
0
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/8
08/9
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
10
2/22/2016
Genotipo ‐ Ambiente
Field Tests Early Corn
Crea – North Buenos Ares Region ZNBA
2014‐15
14000
13000
12000
DK 7210 VT3Pro
DK7310 VT3Pro
11000
DM 2738 MGRR
Syn 969 TdTg
Dow M505 PW
10000
Dow M507 PW
Lt626 VT3Pro
Ax 7761 Tdmax
9000
DK 7250 VT3Pro
Syn 840 TdTg
Arv 2489 MGRR
8000
P 1778 YR
Lt 719 VT3Pro
SRM 566 MGRR
7000
KM 4500 TdTg
Ax 7822 Tdmax
6000
7500
8500
9500
10500
Field Tests Late Corn
Crea – North Buenos Aires Region ‐ ZNBA
2014‐15
11500
12500
13500
Genotipo ‐ Ambiente
12500
12000
11500
11000
10500
DK 7210 VT3Pro
10000
Dow M505 PW
Ax 7822 Tdmax
9500
Lt626 VT3Pro
Lt 719 VT3Pro
9000
Syn 900 Vip3
DK 7210 VT3Pro
DK7310 VT3Pro
Dow M505 PW
Ax 7822 Tdmax
Lt626 VT3Pro
Lt 719 VT3Pro
DK 7250 VT3Pro
DM 2771 VT3Pro
Syn 900 Vip3
Dow M507 PW
Arv 2155 HxRR
Ax 887 HCLMG
P 1778 YR
Syn 840 TdTg
P 1780 HR
SRM 553 MGRR
r2
95
61
98
97
89
99
85
63
98
99
82
30
84
91
83
96
Dow M507 PW
8500
Syn 840 TdTg
SRM 553 MGRR
8000
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
11
2/22/2016
14000
Early Corn
12000
Field Tests
North Buenos Aires 10000
Region ‐ ZNBA
Last 3 years
Linear (AX 7822 TDMax)
8000
Linear (DK 7210 VT3Pro)
Linear (LT 626 VT3Pro)
Linear (DM 2738 MG)
6000
Linear (SRM 566 MG)
4000
4500
5500
6500
7500
8500
9500
10500
11500
12500
14500
105
10425
10018
101
10010
101
97
9639
96
9527
DK 7210
VT3Pro
13500
DM 2738 MG
LT 626
VT3Pro
SRM 566 MG
AX 7822
TDMax
DK 7210
VT3Pro
DM 2738 MG
LT 626
VT3Pro
SRM 566 MG
AX 7822
TDMax
13500
12500
Late Corn
Crea – Field Tests
data of 3 years
North Buenos Aires Region ‐ ZNBA
11500
10500
9500
8500
7500
8500
12
9000
11.3
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
109
105
10.4
100
100
10.1
10
10000
110
11
11
9500
9.8
10
97
94
95
90
9
DK 7210 VT3ProDM 2771 VT3ProNK 900 Viptera3 Arv 2155 Hx
85
DK 7210
VT3Pro
DM 2771
VT3Pro
NK 900
Viptera3
Arv 2155 Hx
12
2/22/2016
11429
11526
11034
11314
10869
11183
10686
RENDIMIENTO
Maicero ‐ NBA
North Buenos Aires Region
with University of Buenos Aires
9235
8934
8415
8159
Economic response to Nitrogen fertilizer
15
8652
10270
9696
9807
9899
9974
10030
10068
9255
9567
9072
9420
8871
9787
9519
10487
10037
7005
7205
7252
7290
7318
7336
7345
6823
7148
6718
7081
6603
6919
6479
5363
5554
5599
5636
5663
5682
5692
5191
5499
5091
5435
4983
5281
4865
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
CC
Mod Húm
Seco
Napa
160
170
180
190
200
80%
13 73%
13 13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
60%
MARGEN BRUTO ESPERADO
500
13
60%
400
48%
10
9
40%
300
36%
8
24%
6
346
336
324
311
354
361
367
372
375
376
376
375
372
368
277
275
272
268
261
254
244
65
56
47
37
26
14
246
255
262
268
273
276
277
104
102
99
95
91
86
79
200
20%
5
4
12%
3
100
‐1%
73
0%
1
0
0
0
80
‐13%
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
160 170 180 190
70
‐33
‐20%
‐2
‐100
‐25%
80
‐35
‐3
‐37%
Benef Marg
‐5
‐40%
‐5
Costo Marg
‐200
‐50% ‐6
Tasa Marg
‐60%
‐62%
90
‐39
100
‐43
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
‐48
‐53
‐60
‐67
‐75
‐83
‐93
‐103
‐114
‐125
CC
Mod Húm
Seco
Napa
‐8
‐10
‐80%
Corn Crea S‐
LO
12,000
Yield in kgs/ha
Acreage in hectares
Early Corn Acreage
Temp SUP
Late Corn Acreage
Tardío SUP
10,000
9,600
Tardío RINDE
Late Corn Yield
8,811
8,576
8,754
7,399
8,454
7,159
6,257
6,091
5,723
6,000
10,148
9,795
9,753
9,433
8,988
8,265
8,159
7,885
7,196
6,914
6,675
9,702
9,111 9,158 9,121
8,425
8,000
10,618
10,364
9,989
Tempr RINDE
Early Corn Yield
6,437
6,220
6,376
4,000
2,953
2,767
2,692
2,487
2,154
1,996
1,757
1,585
857
1,338
06/07
05/06
04/05
03/04
02/03
01/02
00/01
99/00
98/9
97/8
96/7
95/6
94/5
93/4
92/3
91/2
90/1
0
07/8
357
768
927
2,054
1,956
1,927
14/15
1,175
13/14
964
1,393
11/12
758
1,972
1,284
10/11
702
1,609
1,810
1,286
08/9
447
2,078
1,760
09/10
298
1,203
1,876
12/13
2,000
3,746
2,985
13
2/22/2016
Corn Planting ‐ Early and Late planting
100%
16%
90%
30%
80%
34%
45%
40%
70%
44%
49%
56%
51%
13/14
14/15
62%
60%
50%
84%
40%
70%
30%
66%
55%
60%
20%
38%
10%
0%
07/8
08/9
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
LATE Planting
EARLY Planting
Wheat & Double Crop Soybean Yields – Kgs/ha
6500
5,702
6000
5500
4,924
5000
5,116
4,594
4,480
4500
5,509
5,331
4,967
4,084
4000
3500
3,198
3,126
Wheat
3,032
3000
2500
2000
/
3500
/
/
/
/
3050
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
2969
3000
2517
2670
2736
2516
2485
2500
2326
2285
2317
09/10
10/11
11/12
2000
1500
Double crop
soybean
1000
818
500
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
14
2/22/2016
Nitrogen in wheat
MODELOS DE SIMULACIÓN
SERIE ROJAS
Rendimiento esperado en Trigo
80% PROBABILIDAD
7000
6500
Rendimiento
6000
Capac de campo
5985
5874
5945
4615
4645
4655
4564
3894
3914
3918
3856
5775
5647
5500
5489
5302
5085
5000
4840
70% agua útil
4565
4500
4261
4493
4401
4289
4156
4000
4002
Seco
3801
3828
3633
3729
3639
3532
3500
3408
3266
3108
3000
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Kg N Disponible
Capac de Campo
70% agua útil
600
500
401
400
300
456
431
477
494
Suelo seco a la siembra
507
515
518
518
513
503
306
320
331
338
342
344
342
337
329
318
304
228
236
241
244
245
243
238
231
221
208
193
80
90
140
150
160
170
180
200 u$s/ton
200
100
0
EXPECTED Gross Margin
600
with
500
different
400
prices of 300
wheat and 200
different N 100
rates
0
100
110
284
207
143
80
306
216
147
90
120
130
agua útil
Kg N70%
Disponible
Capac de campo
Suelo seco a la siembra
324
339
350
357
361
361
357
350
340
221
148
225
225
223
219
212
203
148
146
191
141
134
176
125
114
101
86
140
150
160
170
180
100
110
120
130
agua útil
Kg N70%
Disponible
Capac de campo
170 u$s/ton
Suelo seco a la siembra
600
500
140 u$s/ton
400
300
200
100
168
108
58
181
111
57
80
90
192
200
205
207
206
203
197
188
176
112
55
111
52
108
46
103
39
96
30
88
20
77
8
64
49
100
110
120
130
Kg N Disponible
70% agua útil
140
150
160
170
180
0
Capac de campo
Suelo seco
15
2/22/2016
PHOSPHORUS IN WHEAT
RtoRelativo(%)
100
Umbral de P de suficiencia
Field Tests – ZNBA
7 years data
90
80
Y=54.1+3.5*X Si X≤13) R²=0.59
70
60
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
P total ppm
Para
Suelo
Aplicar
Dosis de P de suficiencia
4
116
6
101
8
87
10
72
12
58
14
43
ppm
kg MAP
5500
MAP 120
P offered affects N applied
Ensayos ZNBA – 4 years of data
Rinde (kg/h
5000
MAP 80
4500
MAP 40
4000
3500
60
80
100
120
NTotal (kg/ha) 0-60
140
160
180
History of Niño‐Niña
in SLO
Yields in Kgs/ha
Information
For
budgeting
(Crea S‐LO
Evaluaciones)
2002‐3
2003‐4
2004‐5
2005‐6
2006‐7
2007‐8
2009‐10
2010‐11
2011‐12
2012‐13
2013‐14
Wheat
3274
4242
4440
4966
3027
3950
3983
Niño
Soy 2nd crop
3068
2624
2711
Wheat
Niña
Soy 2nd Crop
5094
4440
5510
2718
2711
2813
5716
5188
2304
2262
5190
2562
3010
2128
?
2708
16
2/22/2016
Soja 2nd Crop
Variables
10/11
11/12
105
95
88
115
110
99
109
95
1ra Nov
2da Nov
3ra Nov
1ra Dic
2da Dic
3ra Dic
1ra Ene
Planting
Dates
Per Índex
Difference in Kg/ha for every
10 days
Difference in Kg/ha for each
day late planted
12/13
124
115
120
112
102
89
86
3ra Nov
1ra Dic
2da Dic
3ra Dic
1ra Ene
12/13
‐94
‐212
‐287
‐359
‐84
3ra Nov
1ra Dic
2da Dic
3ra Dic
1ra Ene
12/13
‐9
‐21
‐29
‐36
‐8
13/14
14/15
119
111
98
95
96
114
108
96
13/14
‐250
‐401
‐58
13/14
‐25
‐40
‐6
Prom
124
117
115
107
99
97
90
14/15
Prom
‐172
‐304
‐226
‐359
‐84
‐300
‐334
14/15
Prom
‐17
‐30
‐23
‐36
‐8
‐30
‐33
400 0
SLO
10, 000
3585
Superficie total
Rend Medio
350 0
9,0 00
3050
2723
300 0
Soy as 2nd
Crop
2969
2411
2158 2226
250 0
2517
2670
2516
8,0 00
2795
2485
2613
7,0 00
2326 2285 2317
6,0 00
2009
200 0
5,0 00
1502
1454
4,0 00
150 0
862
818
3,0 00
100 0
3,112
500
1,065 1,212 887 1,389 1,208
1,050
1,782 2,230
2,880 2,941
3,574
4,195
3,416 3,088
2,039
2,0 00
3,484
2,127
1,795
2,822 3,153
1,0 00
0
0
94/5
95/6
4,000
3,500
96/7
97/8
98/9 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
3,621
RENDIMIENTOS S/PROPIO
RENDIMIENTO CAMPO DE TERCEROS
3,068
3,000
2,990
2,985
2,624
2,711
2,718
3,010
2,823
2,953
2,944
2,500
3,022
2,304
2,330
2,358
2,262
2,573
2,351
2,000
2,225
2,168
1,500
3,471
2,624
2,447
2,128
945
1,000
500
688
0
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/7
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
13/14
17
2/22/2016
Avge Returns on whole farm business
Resultado Final (u$s/ha)
Y Rentabilidad
900
10.0%
8.0%
7.7%
8.0%
700
6.5%
5.9%
4.1%
5.3%
500
4.5%
3.0%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
1.4%
3.1%
6.0%
4.0%
2.2%
300
1.2%
1.3%
2.0%
100
56
94/5
181
97
117
89
95/6
96/7
97/8
98/9
34
99/00
00/01
01/02
293
270
156
260
345
491
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/7
07/8
08/9
-176
287
348
261
165
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
0.0%
-100
-2.0%
-2.8%
-300
-4.0%
RESULTADO FINAL
38
RENTABILIDAD FINAL
18
Descargar