Subido por Gabriel C. Cabrera

J. S. Cramer - The Origins of Logistic Regression

Anuncio
7,
7LQEHUJHQ,QVWLWXWH'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU
7KH2ULJLQVRI/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ
-6&UDPHU
)DFXOW\RI(FRQRPLFVDQG(FRQRPHWULFV8QLYHUVLW\RI$PVWHUGDPDQG7LQEHUJHQ,QVWLWXWH
Wkh Ruljlqv ri Orjlvwlf Uhjuhvvlrq
M1V1 Fudphu
Qryhpehu 5335
Devwudfw
Wklv sdshu ghvfulehv wkh ruljlqv ri wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq/ lwv dgrs0
wlrq lq elr0dvvd|/ dqg lwv zlghu dffhswdqfh lq vwdwlvwlfv1 Lwv urrwv
vsuhdg idu edfn wr wkh hduo| 4<wk fhqwxu|> wkh vxuylydo ri wkh whup
orjlvwlf dqg wkh zlgh dssolfdwlrq ri wkh ghylfh kdyh ehhq ghwhuplqhg
ghflvlyho| e| wkh shuvrqdo klvwrulhv dqg lqglylgxdo dfwlrqv ri d ihz
vfkroduv1
Wklv lv d pxfk h{whqghg yhuvlrq ri Fkdswhu < ri
Orjlw Prghov iurp Hfrqrplfv dqg Rwkhu Ilhogv/
iruwkfrplqj dw Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv
Xqlyhuvlw|
ri Dpvwhugdp dqg Wlqehujhq Lqvwlwxwh/ Dpvwhugdp> srvwdo dguhvv
Eddpeuxjvh ]xzh 4<7/ 6978 DP Ylqnhyhhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv> h0pdlo dgguhvv
pduv1fudpCzruogrqolqh1qo1 L kdg wkh ehqhw ri frpphqwv ri M1 Vdqghh rq dq hduolhu
yhuvlrq1
4
4
Lqwurgxfwlrq
4
S+],
31;
319
317
315
3
07
06
05
04
3
4
5
6
7
]
Iljxuh 41 Wkh orjlvwlf fxuyh S+],
Wkh vljprlg fxuyh ri Iljxuh 4 lv wudfhg e| wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq
e%R~
E~ '
+4,
 n e%R~
ehkdyhv olnh wkh glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq ri d v|pphwulfdo ghqvlw|/ zlwk plg0
srlqw }hur> dv ~ pryhv wkurxjk wkh uhdo qxpehu d{lv/ ulvhv prqrwrqlfdoo|
ehwzhhq wkh erxqgv ri }hur dqg 1 Wkh phdqlqj ri wklv ixqfwlrq ydulhv df0
fruglqj wr wkh wkh ghqlwlrq ri wkh yduldeohv1 Lq wkh orjlw yhuvlrq ri elr0dvvd|
lv wkh suredelolw| ri d elqdu| rxwfrph/ dqg ~ ' knqf/ zlwk f d vwlpxoxv
ru h{srvxuh yduldeoh> k ghwhuplqhv wkh orfdwlrq ri wkh fxuyh rq wkh f0d{lv/
dqg q lwv vorsh1 Lq orjlvwlf uhjuhvvlrq wkhuh duh vhyhudo ghwhuplqdqwv ri /
dqg ~ ' %A q/ zlwk % d yhfwru ri fryduldwhv +lqfoxglqj d xqlw frqvwdqw, dqg q
wkhlu frh!flhqwv1 Exw wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq ruljlqdoo| ghvfulehv wkh frxuvh ri
d sursruwlrq ryhu wlph |/ zlwk ~ ' k n q|> vlqfh E| ulvhv prqrwrqlfdoo|
zlwk |, wklv lv d jurzwk fxuyh1
Ryhu d idluo| zlgh fhqwudo udqjh/ iru ydoxhv ri iurp wr ./ wkh orjlv0
wlf fxuyh forvho| uhvhpeohv lq vkdsh dv wkh qrupdo suredelolw| glvwulexwlrq
ixqfwlrq1 Wkh wzr ixqfwlrqv
e%REq%
, E% '
+5,
 n e%REq%
5
dqg
]
%

? E% ' s
i Ti*2E*j j_
j 2Z 3
2
?u
+6,
erwk sdvv wkurxjk wkh srlqw +fc D,/ dqg wkh| fdq eh pdgh doprvw wr frlqflgh
xsrq d vxlwdeoh dgmxvwphqw ri q dqg j1 Wklv lv d vkhhu dojheudlf frlqflghqfh/
iru wkhuh dsshduv wr eh qr lqwulqvlf uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh wzr irupv1
5
Wkh ruljlqv ri wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq
Wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq zdv lqyhqwhg lq wkh bwk fhqwxu| iru wkh ghvfulswlrq ri
wkh jurzwk ri srsxodwlrqv dqg wkh frxuvh ri dxwrfdwdo|wlf fkhplfdo uhdfwlrqv1
Lq hlwkhu fdvh zh frqvlghu wkh wlph sdwk ri d txdqwlw| ` E| dqg lwv jurzwk
udwh
E| ' _` E|*_|
`
+7,
E| lv sursruwlrqdo wr ` E|
Wkh vlpsohvw dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw `
E| ' q` E|c q ' `
E|*` E|c
`
+8,
zlwk q wkh frqvwdqw udwh ri jurzwk1 Wklv ohdgv ri frxuvh wr h{srqhqwldo
jurzwk
` E| ' i T q|c
zkhuh lv vrphwlphv uhsodfhg e| wkh lqlwldo ydoxh ` Ef1 Wklv lv d uhdvrqdeoh
prgho iru xqrssrvhg srsxodwlrq jurzwk lq d |rxqj frxqwu| olnh wkh Xqlwhg
Vwdwhv lq lwv hduo| |hduv> dv Pdowkxv +4:;<, sxw lw/ d kxpdq srsxodwlrq/ ohiw wr
lwvhoi/ zloo lqfuhdvh lq jhrphwulf surjuhvvlrq14 Exw Doskrqvh Txhwhohw +4:<8
4;:7,/ wkh Ehojldq dvwurqrphu wxuqhg vwdwlvwlfldq/ zdv zhoo dzduh wkdw wkh
lqglvfulplqdwh h{wudsrodwlrq ri h{srqhqwldo jurzwk pxvw ohdg wr lpsrvvleoh
ydoxhv1 Kh h{shulphqwhg zlwk vhyhudo dgmxvwphqwv ri +8, dqg dovr dvnhg klv
sxslo Slhuuh0Iudqêrlv Yhukxovw +4;374;7<, wr orrn lqwr wkh sureohp1
Olnh Txhwhohw/ Yhukxovw dssurdfkhg wkh sureohp e| dgglqj dq h{wud whup
wr +8, wr uhsuhvhqw wkh lqfuhdvlqj uhvlvwdqfh wr ixuwkhu jurzwk/ dv lq
E| ' q` E| E` E|
`
+9,
4
Wzr kxqguhg |hduv odwhu h{srqhqwldo jurzwk sod|hg d pdmru sduw lq wkh Uhsruw wr wkh
Foxe ri Urph ri Phdgrzv hw do +4<:5,/ dqg lw vwloo olhv dw wkh edvlv ri pdq| hfrqrplf
dqdo|vhv1
6
dqg wkhq h{shulphqwlqj zlwk ydulrxv irupv ri 1 Wkh orjlvwlf dsshduv zkhq
wklv lv d txdgudwlf/ iru wkhq zh pd| uhzulwh +9, dv
E| ' q` E|El ` E|
`
+:,
zkhuh l ghqrwhv wkh xsshu olplw ru vdwxudwlrq ohyho ri ` 1 Jurzwk lv qrz sur0
sruwlrqdo erwk wr wkh srsxodwlrq douhdg| dwwdlqhg ` E| dqg wr wkh uhpdlqlqj
urrp iru ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq l ` E|1 Li zh h{suhvv ` E| dv d sursruwlrq
E| ' ` E|*l wklv jlyhv
E| ' q E|i E|jc
+;,
dqg wkh vroxwlrq ri wklv glhuhqwldo htxdwlrq lv
E| '
i TEk n q|
c
 n i TEk n q|
+<,
zklfk Yhukxovw qdphg wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq1 Wkh srsxodwlrq ` E| wkhq iro0
orzv
` E| ' l
i TEk n q|
 n i TEk n q|
+43,
Yhukxovw sxeolvkhg klv vxjjhvwlrqv ehwzhhq 4;6; dqg 4;7: lq wkuhh sdshuv1
Wkh uvw lv d eulhi qrwh lq wkh Fruuhvsrqgdqfh Pdwkìpdwltxh hw Sk|vltxh
hglwhg e| Txhwhohw lq 4;6;1 Lw frqwdlqv wkh hvvhqfh ri wkh dujxphqw lq irxu
vpdoo sdjhv/ iroorzhg e| d ghprqvwudwlrq wkdw wkh fxuyh djuhhv yhu| zhoo zlwk
wkh dfwxdo frxuvh ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri Iudqfh/ Ehojlxp/ Hvvh{ dqg Uxvvld iru
shulrgv xs wr 4;66> Yhukxovw h{sodlqv wkdw kh glg klv uhvhdufk d frxsoh ri |hduv
ehiruh/ wkdw kh glg qrw kdyh wkh wlph iru dq xsgdwh dqg wkdw kh sxeolvkhv
wkhvh qrwhv rqo| dw wkh lqvlvwhqfh ri Txhwhohw1 Kh grhv qrw vd| krz kh
wwhg wkh fxuyhv1 Wkh vhfrqg sdshu/ lq wkh Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Ehojldq Ur|do
Dfdghp| ri 4;78/ lv d pxfk ixoohu dffrxqw ri wkh ixqfwlrq dqg lwv surshuwlhv1
Khuh Yhukxovw qdphv lw wkh orjlvwlf/ zlwkrxw ixuwkhu h{sodqdwlrq= lq d qhdw
gldjudp/ wkh frxueh orjlvwltxh lv gudzq dorqjvlgh wkh frxueh orjdulwkpltxh/
zklfk zh zrxog qrzdgd|v fdoo wkh h{srqhqwldo1 Yhukxovw dovr ghwhuplqhv
wkh wkuhh sdudphwhuv l/ k dqg q ri +43, e| pdnlqj wkh fxuyh sdvv wkurxjk
wkuhh revhuyhg srlqwv1 Zlwk gdwd iru vrph wzhqw| ru wkluw| |hduv rqo| wklv
lv d kd}dugrxv phwkrg/ dv lv eruqh rxw e| wkh uhvxowlqj hvwlpdwhv ri wkh
olplwlqj srsxodwlrq l ri SS ploolrqv iru Ehojlxp dqg ef ploolrq iru Iudqfh=
dw suhvhqw wkhvh srsxodwlrqv qxpehu f2 dqg DH. ploolrq1 Lq 4;7: wkhuh
7
iroorzhg d vhfrqg sdshu lq wkh Surfhhglqjv/ zklfk lv fklh | qrwdeoh iru dq
dgmxvwphqw ri wkh fruuhfwlrq whup wkdw ohdgv wr d pxfk ehwwhu hvwlpdwh ri
bD ploolrqv iru wkh ehojldq l1
Yhukxovw zdv sulpdulo| d pdwkhpdwlfldq/ exw vhqvlwlyh wr vrfldo dqg sr0
olwlfdo lvvxhv> kh zdv lq srru khdowk dqg glhg |rxqj1 Txhwhohw dwwulexwhv klv
hduo| ghdwk wr ryhuzrun dqg/ udwkhu fxulrxvo|/ wr klv juhdw vwdwxuh/ dv Yhukxovw
zdv 41;< phwhuv ru vl{ ihhw wdoo1 Klv lpsxovlyh qdwxuh zdv ghprqvwudwhg lq wkh
vxpphu ri 4;631 Yhukxovw kdg jrqh wr Lwdo| iru klv khdowk dqg zdv vwd|lqj lq
Urph zkhq wkh qhzv ri wkh uhyroxwlrq lq Sdulv dqg ri wkh Ehojldq vhfhvvlrq
iurp wkh Qhwkhuodqgv eurnh1 Wkhvh hyhqwv pryhg klp vwurqjo| dqg vhw klp
gudiwlqj d ghprfudwlf frqvwlwxwlrq iru wkh Sdsdo Vwdwh1 Kh vxeplwwhg wklv
grfxphqw wr vrph fduglqdov kh kdg phw/ zkr h{suhvvhg juhdw lqwhuhvw> vwloo
wkh srolfh zhuh fdoohg lq/ dqg Yhukxovw edqlvkhg iurp Urph1 Kh ohiw xqghu
vrphzkdw gudpdwlf flufxpvwdqfhv/ kdylqj dw uvw eduulfdghg klv dsduwphqw
zlwk wkh lqwhqwlrq ri zlwkvwdqglqj d vlhjh e| wkh irufhv ri odz dqg rughu1
Wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq zdv glvfryhuhg dqhz lq 4<53 e| Shduo dqg Uhhg lq
d vwxg| ri wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk ri wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv1 Wkh| zhuh xqdzduh
ri Yhukxovw*v zrun +wkrxjk qrw ri wkh fxuyhv iru dxwrfdwdo|wlf uhdfwlrqv glv0
fxvvhg suhvhqwo|,/ dqg wkh| duulyhg lqghshqghqwo| dw wkh orjlvwlf fxuyh ri
+43,1 Zkhq wklv zdv wwhg wr Fhqvxv jxuhv/ djdlq e| pdnlqj wkh fxuyh
sdvv wkurxjk wkuhh srlqwv/ lw jdyh d jrrg w iru wkh shulrg iurp 4:<3 wr
4<431 Exw wkh hvwlpdwh ri l ri b. ploolrqv djdlq frpsduhv edgo| zlwk wkh
suhvhqw ydoxh ri derxw 2.f ploolrqv1 Lq vslwh ri pdq| rwkhu lqwhuhvwv/ Shduo
dqg klv frooderudwruv lq wkh qh{w wzhqw| |hduv zhqw rq wr dsso| wkh orjlvwlf
jurzwk fxuyh wr doprvw dq| olylqj srsxodwlrq iurp iuxlw lhv wr wkh kxpdq
srsxodwlrq ri wkh Iuhqfk frorqlhv lq Qruwk Diulfd dv zhoo dv wr wkh jurzwk ri
fdqwdorxshv> zh olvw d ihz ri wkhvh vwxglhv lq wkh eleolrjudsk|1
Lq 4<53/ Ud|prqg Shduo +4;:<4<73, kdg mxvw ehhq dssrlqwhg Gluhfwru ri
wkh Ghsduwphqw ri Elrphwu| dqg Ylwdo Vwdwlvwlfv dw Mrkqv Krsnlqv Xqlyhuvlw|/
dqg Orzhoo M1 Uhhg +4;;94<99, zdv klv ghsxw| +dqg klv vxffhvvru zkhq
d ihz |hduv odwhu Shduo zdv surprwhg wr Surihvvru ri Elrorj|,1 Shduo zdv
wudlqhg dv d elrorjlvw dqg dftxluhg klv vwdwlvwlfv dv d |rxqj pdq lq 4<38
4<39 e| vshqglqj d |hdu lq Orqgrq zlwk Nduo Shduvrq +dqg odwhu txduuhoolqj
zlwk klp,1 Kh ehfdph d surgljlrxv lqyhvwljdwru dqg d surolf zulwhu rq d
zlgh ydulhw| ri skhqrphqd olnh orqjhylw|/ ihuwlolw|/ frqwudfhswlrq/ dqg wkh
hhfwv ri dofrkro dqg wredffr frqvxpswlrq rq khdowk/ doo vxevxphg xqghu
wkh khdglqj ri kxpdq elrorj|1 Gxulqj Zruog Zdu L Shduo zrunhg lq wkh
X1V1 Irrg Dgplqlvwudwlrq/ dqg wklv pd| dffrxqw iru klv suhrffxsdwlrq zlwk
8
wkh irrg qhhgv ri d jurzlqj srsxodwlrq lq wkh 4<53 sdshu1 Uhhg/ zkr zdv
wudlqhg dv d pdwkhpdwlfldq/ pdgh d txlhw fduhhu lq elrvwdwlvwlfv> kh h{fhoohg
dv d whdfkhu dqg dv dq dgplqlvwudwru/ dqg zdv eurxjkw edfn lq 4<86 iurp
uhwluhphqw wr vhuyh dv Suhvlghqw ri Mrkqv Krsnlqv1 Dprqj klv sxeolfdwlrqv
lq wkh diwhupdwk ri wkh 4<53 sdshu zlwk Shduo lv dq dssolfdwlrq ri wkh orjlvwlf
fxuyh wr dxwrfdwdo|wlf uhdfwlrqv/ Uhhg dqg Ehunvrq +4<5<,1 Zh vkdoo khdu
pruh derxw wklv fr0dxwkru lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq1
Wkh whup orjlvwlf zdv ri frxuvh qrw xvhg xqwlo Yhukxovw*v zrun zdv uh0
glvfryhuhg/ zklfk zdv vrrq diwhu Shduo dqg Uhhg*v uvw sdshu ri 4<531 Wkh
lpphgldwh vhtxho/ Shduo dqg Uhhg +4<55,/ grhv qrw phqwlrq Yhukxovw> klv
sulrulw| lv uvw dfnqrzohgjhg lq d irrwqrwh lq Shduo +4<55,1 Lq Shduo dqg
Uhhg +4<56, Yhukxovw lv djdlq qdphg dqg uhihuhqfhv duh jlyhq wr klv wzr sd0
shuv ri 4;78 dqg 4;7:/ exw klv whuplqrorj| lv qrw dgrswhg1 Shduo dqg Uhhg
fdoo Yhukxovw*v sdshuv *orqj vlqfh irujrwwhq*/ h{fhsw iru d vlqjoh duwlfoh e| Gx
Sdvtxlhu +4<4;,/ dqg wkh| wkhq jr rxw ri wkhlu zd| wr fulwlfl}h wkdw dxwkru
iru dq hqwluho| xqmxvwlhg dqg lq sudfwlfh xvxdoo| lqfruuhfw prglfdwlrq ri
Yhukxovw*v irupxod/ zlwkrxw vxevwdqwldwlqj wklv kduvk mxgjphqw1 Lq idfw Gx
Sdvtxlhu*v sdshu lv d kdupohvv uh hfwlrq rq irxu pdwkhpdwlfdo wkhrulhv ri
srsxodwlrq/ ri d yhu| irupdo dqg devwudfw fkdudfwhu wr wkh srlqw ri lqdqlw|1
Wkh irxu wkhrulhv duh olqnhg wr Kdooh|/ gh Prlyuh/ Hxohu dqg Yhukxovw/ dqg
wkhvh dxwkruv duh eulh | lqwurgxfhg> Kdooh|/ iru h{dpsoh/ dv %wkh idprxv dv0
wurqrphu%/ dqg Yhukxovw dv %d Ehojldq zkr glhg lq 4;7:%1 Qr uhihuhqfhv duh
jlyhq1 Lw lv qrw fohdu krz Gx Sdvtxlhu nqhz derxw Yhukxovw/ qru krz Shduo
dqg Uhhg nqhz derxw Gx Sdvtxlhu1 Rq wkh uvw srlqw/ Gx Sdvtxlhu +4;:9
B,/ zkr zdv d Surihvvru ri Pdwkhpdwlfv dw wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Qhxfkdwho/
lq Vzlw}huodqg/ zdv hgxfdwhg lq pdwkhpdwlfv dqg hfrqrplfv lq ] ulfk dqg
Sdulv/ dqg kh pd| kdyh uhdg derxw Yhukxovw lq wkh Iuhqfk olwhudwxuh1 Rq wkh
vhfrqg srlqw/ Gx Sdvtxlhu pd| zhoo kdyh wdnhq wkh lqlwldwlyh lq hvwdeolvklqj
frqwdfw zlwk Shduo ru Uhhg> diwhu doo/ Shduo dqg Uhhg kdg sxeolvkhg wkhlu
sdshu lq wkh Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ zklfk zrxog
uhdfk Vzlw}huodqg/ dqg Gx Sdvtxlhu lq wkh Ylhuwhomdkuvvfkuliw ghu Qdwxu0
iruvfkhqghq Jhvhoovfkdiw lq ] ulfk zklfk zdv xqolnho| wr uhdfk Edowlpruh1
Exw doo wklv lv sxuh vshfxodwlrq1
Wkh qh{w lpsruwdqw sxeolfdwlrq lv \xoh*v Suhvlghqwldo Dgguhvv wr wkh
Ur|do Vwdwlvwlfdo Vrflhw| ri 4<581 \xoh/ zkr vd|v kh rzhv wkh uhihuhqfh wr
Shduo +4<55,/ wuhdwv Yhukxovw pxfk pruh kdqgvrpho| wkdq Shduo dqg Uhhg
glg/ ghyrwlqj dq dsshqgl{ wr klv zrun dqg uhylylqj wkh qdph orjlvwlf1 Lw
zrxog wdnh xqwlo 4<66 iru Plqhu +d frooderudwru ri Shduo, wr sd| wulexwh wr
9
Yhukxovw/ li lq dq lqgluhfw zd|= lqvwhdg ri uhsurgxflqj dw ohdvw rqh ri Yhu0
kxovw*v sdshuv/ kh sxeolvkhg d wudqvodwlrq ri Yhukxovw*v relwxdu| e| Txhwhohw/
zlwk wkh dgglwlrq ri dq h{wudfw iurp wkh phprluv ri Txhhq Kruwhqvh gh
Ehdxkduqdlv/ zkr uhfrugv wkh hslvrgh ri Yhukxovw*v vwd| lq Urph lq 4;631
Dv zh kdyh lqglfdwhg wkhuh lv dqrwkhu hduo| urrw ri wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq
lq fkhplvwu|/ zkhuh lw zdv hpsor|hg +djdlq zlwk vrph yduldwlrqv, wr ghvfuleh
wkh frxuvh ri dxwrfdwdo|wlf uhdfwlrqv1 Wkhvh duh fkhplfdo fkdlq uhdfwlrqv
zkhuh wkh surgxfw lwvhoi dfwv dv d fdwdo|vw iru wkh surfhvv zkloh wkh vxsso|
ri udz pdwhuldo lv {hg1 Wklv ohdgv qdwxudoo| wr d glhuhqwldo htxdwlrq olnh
+;, dqg khqfh wr wkh orjlvwlf ixqfwlrq iru wkh wlph sdwk ri wkh dprxqw ri
wkh uhdfwlrq surgxfw1 Wkh uhylhz ri wkh dssolfdwlrq ri orjlvwlf fxuyhv wr d
qxpehu ri vxfk surfhvvhv e| Uhhg dqg Ehunvrq +4<5<, txrwhv zrun ri wkh
Jhupdq surihvvru ri fkhplvwu| Zlokhop Rvwzdog ri 4;;61 Dxwkruv olnh \xoh
+4<58, dqg Zlovrq +4<58, zhuh zhoo dzduh ri wklv vwudqg ri wkh olwhudwxuh1
Wkh edvlf lghd ri orjlvwlf jurzwk lv vlpsoh dqg hhfwlyh/ dqg lw lv xvhg wr
wklv gd| wr prgho srsxodwlrq jurzwk dqg pdunhw shqhwudwlrq ri qhz surgxfwv
dqg whfkqrorjlhv1 Wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri preloh whohskrqhv lv dq dxwrfdwdo|wlf
surfhvv/ dqg vr lv wkh vsuhdg ri pdq| qhz surgxfwv dqg whfkqltxhv lq lqgxv0
wu|1
6
Wkh lqyhqwlrq ri wkh surelw dqg wkh dgyhqw ri wkh orjlw
Wkh lqyhqwlrq ri wkh surelw prgho lv xvxdoo| fuhglwhg wr Jdggxp +4<66, dqg
Eolvv +4<67d,/ +4<67e,/ exw rqh orrn dw wkh klvwrulfdo vhfwlrq ri Ilqqh| +4<:4,
ru lqghhg dw Jdggxp*v sdshu dqg klv uhihuhqfhv zloo vkrz wkdw wklv lv wrr
vlpsoh1 Wkh urrwv ri wkh phwkrg dqg lq sduwlfxodu wkh wudqvirupdwlrq ri iuh0
txhqflhv wr htxlydohqw qrupdo ghyldwhv fdq eh wudfhg wr wkh Jhupdq vfkrodu
Ihfkqhu +4;344;;:,1 Vwljohu +4<;9, uhfrxqwv krz Ihfkqhu zdv gudzq wr
vwxg| kxpdq uhvsrqvhv wr h{whuqdo vwlpxol e| h{shulphqwdo whvw ri wkh delo0
lw| wr glvwlqjxlvk glhuhqfhv lq zhljkw1 Wkh lvvxh ri wkh yduldelolw| ri kxpdq
uhvsrqvhv kdg ehhq udlvhg e| dvwurqrphuv/ zkr uholhg rq kxpdq revhuyhuv
ri fhohvwldo skhqrphqd dqg irxqg wkdw wkhlu uhdglqjv vkrzhg pxfk xqdf0
frxqwdeoh yduldwlrq1 Ihfkqhu uhfrjql}hg wkdw kxpdq uhvsrqvh wr dq lghqwlfdo
vwlpxoxv lv qrw xqlirup/ dqg kh zdv wkh uvw wr wudqvirup revhuyhg glhuhqfhv
wr htxlydohqw qrupdo ghyldwhv1 Wkh klvwrulfdo vnhwfkhv ri Ilqqh| +4<:4,/ Fk1
619/ dqg ri Dlwfklvrq dqg Eurzq +4<8:,/ Fk1 415/ uhfrug d orqj olqh ri odujho|
lqghshqghqw uhglvfryhulhv ri wklv dssurdfk wkdw vsdqv wkh vhyhqw| |hduv iurp
Ihfkqhu +4;93, wr wkh hduo| 4<63*v zkhq Jdggxp dqg Eolvv sxeolvkhg wkhlu
:
frqwulexwlrqv1 Erwk dxwkruv uhjdug wkh dvvxpswlrq ri d qrupdo glvwulexwlrq
dv frpprqsodfh/ dqg dwwdfk pruh lpsruwdqfh wr wkh orjdulwkplf wudqviru0
pdwlrq ri wkh vwlpxoxv1 Wkhlu sdshuv frqwdlq qr pdmru lqqrydwlrqv/ exw wkh|
pdun wkh hphujhqfh ri d vwdqgdug sdudgljp ri elr0dvvd|1 Jdggxp zurwh d
frpsuhkhqvlyh dqg dxwkrulwdwlyh uhsruw zlwk wkh hpskdvlv rq sudfwlfdo dv0
shfwv ri wkh h{shulphqwv dqg rq wkh vwdwlvwlfdo lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri elr0dvvd|/
jlylqj vhyhudo zrunhg h{dpsohv iurp wkh phglfdo dqg skdupdfhxwlfdo olwhud0
wxuh1 Eolvv sxeolvkhg wzr eulhi qrwhv lq Vflhqfh/ lqwurgxflqj wkh whup surelw>
kh iroorzhg wklv xs zlwk d vhulhv ri duwlfohv vhwwlqj rxw wkh pd{lpxp olnh0
olkrrg hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh surelw fxuyh/ lq rqh lqvwdqfh zlwk dvvlvwdqfh iurp
U1D1 Ilvkhu +Eolvv +4<68,,1 Erwk Jdggxp dqg Eolvv vhw vwdqgdugv ri hvwl0
pdwlrq> xqwlo wkh 4<63*v wklv zdv odujho| d pdwwhu ri dg krf qxphulfdo dqg
judsklfdo dgmxvwphqw ri fxuyhv wr fdwhjrulfdo gdwd1
Mrkq Khqu| Jdggxp +4<334<98, vwxglhg phglflqh dw Fdpeulgjh exw
idlohg lq klv qdo h{dplqdwlrqv1 Kh wxuqhg wr skdupdfrorj| dqg zrunhg
xqghu Wuhydq dw wkh Zhoofrph Oderudwrulhv/ wkhq wudqvihuuhg wr wkh Qdwlrqdo
Lqvwlwxwh iru Phglfdo Uhvhdufk +zkhuh kh zurwh wkh 4<66 uhsruw, ehiruh kh
hpedunhg rq dq dfdghplf fduhhu ri surihvvruvklsv lq skdupdfrorj| lq Fdlur/
Orqgrq dqg Hglqexujk1 Kh zdv hohfwhg wr wkh Ur|do Vrflhw| lq 4<78 dqg
nqljkwhg lq 4<971 Wr wklv gd| wkh Eulwlvk Skdupdfrorjlfdo Vrflhw| dzdugv
dq dqqxdo Jdggxp Phpruldo Sul}h iru skdupdfhxwlfdo uhvhdufk1
Fkduohv Lwwqhu Eolvv +4;<<4<:<, vwxglhg dv dq hqwrprorjlvw dw Rklr Vwdwh
Xqlyhuvlw| dqg zdv d hog zrunhu zlwk wkh X1V1 Ghsduwphqw ri Djulfxowxuh
xqwlo wklv hpsor|phqw zdv whuplqdwhg lq 4<661 Kh wkhq vshqw wzr |hduv lq
Orqgrq vwxg|lqj vwdwlvwlfv zlwk U1D1 Ilvkhu/ dqg Ilvkhu irxqg klp d mre
lq Ohqlqjudg zkhuh kh olyhg iurp 4<69 dqg 4<6;1 Wkh srolwlfdo frqglwlrqv
zhuh qrw surslwlrxv iru vhulrxv zrun1 Eolvv uhwxuqhg wr wkh Frqqhfwlfxw Djul0
fxowxudo H{shulphqw Vwdwlrq/ frpelqlqj klv zrun dv d sudfwlvlqj vwdwlvwlfldq
zlwk d Ohfwxuhuvkls dw \doh iurp 4<75 xqwlo klv uhwluhphqw1 Kh sod|hg dq
lpsruwdqw uroh lq wkh irxqglqj ri wkh Elrphwulf Vrflhw|1
Lq wkhlu hduo| zulwlqjv rq elr0dvvd| erwk dxwkruv dgkhuh upo| wr wkh
fodvvlfdo prgho ri elr0dvvd|/ zkhuh wkh vwlpxoxv lv ghwhuplqdwh dqg uhvsrqvhv
duh udqgrp ehfdxvh ri wkh yduldelolw| ri lqglylgxdo wrohudqfh ohyhov1 Eolvv
lqwurgxfhg wkh whup surelw +vkruw iru *suredelolw| xqlw*, ruljlqdoo| dv d frq0
yhqlhqw vfdoh iru qrupdo ghyldwhv/ exw dedqgrqhg wklv zlwklq d |hdu lq idyrxu
ri d glhuhqw ghqlwlrq zklfk zdv jhqhudoo| dffhswhg1 Iru dq| +uhodwlyh, iuh0
txhqf| s wkhuh lv dq htxlydohqw qrupdo ghyldwh ~ vxfk wkdw wkh fxpxodwlyh
;
qrupdo glvwulexwlrq dw ~ htxdov s > ~ lv wkh vroxwlrq ri
 ]~
s's
i Ti*2 j_c
2Z 3
2
?u
dqg fdq eh uhdg ri iurp d wdeoh ri wkh qrupdo glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh surelw lv
wkh htxlydohqw qrupdo ghyldwh lqfuhdvhg e| D1 Wklv hqvxuhv wkdw wkh surelw lv
doprvw dozd|v srvlwlyh/ zklfk idflolwdwhv fdofxodwlrq> dw wkh wlph vxfk dgglwlyh
frqvwdqwv zhuh d frpprq ghylfh1
Wkh dffhswdqfh ri wkh surelw phwkrg zdv dlghg e| wkh duwlfohv ri Eolvv/
zkr sxeolvkhg uhjxoduo| lq wklv hog xqwlo wkh 4<83*v/ dqg e| Ilqqh| dqg
rwkhuv +Jdggxp uhwxuqhg wr skdupdfrorj|,1 Wkh ixoo rzhulqj ri wklv vfkrro
lq elr0dvvd| suredeo| frlqflghv zlwk wkh uvw hglwlrq ri Ilqqh|*v prqrjudsk
lq 4<7:1 Dssolfdwlrqv lq rwkhu hogv olnh hfrqrplfv dqg pdunhw uhvhdufk
dsshdu douhdg| lq wkh 4<83*v= Iduuhoo +4<87, hpsor|hg d surelw prgho iru
wkh rzqhuvkls ri fduv ri glhuhqw ylqwdjh dv d ixqfwlrq ri krxvhkrog lqfrph/
dqg Dgdp +4<8;, wwhg orjqrupdo ghpdqg fxuyhv wr vxuyh| gdwd ri wkh
zloolqjqhvv wr ex| fljduhwwh oljkwhuv dqg wkh olnh dw ydulrxv sulfhv1 Wkh fodvvlf
prqrjudsk rq wkh orjqrupdo glvwulexwlrq ri Dlwfklvrq dqg Eurzq +4<8:,
eurxjkw surelw dqdo|vlv wr wkh qrwlfh ri d zlghu dxglhqfh ri hfrqrplvwv1
Dv idu dv L fdq vhh wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wkh orjlvwlf dv dq dowhuqdwlyh wr wkh
qrupdo suredelolw| ixqfwlrq lv wkh zrun ri d vlqjoh shuvrq/ qdpho| Mrvhsk
Ehunvrq +4;<<4<;5,/ Uhhg*v fr0dxwkru ri wkh sdshu rq dxwrfdwdo|wlf ixqf0
wlrqv ri 4<5<1 Ehunvrq uhdg sk|vlfv dw Froxpeld/ wkhq zhqw wr Mrkqv Krs0
nlqv iru klv P1G1 dqg d grfwrudwh lq vwdwlvwlfv lq 4<5;1 Kh vwd|hg rq dv
dq dvvlvwdqw iru wkuhh |hduv dqg wklv lv zkhq kh frooderudwhg zlwk Uhhg rq
dxwrfdwdo|wlf ixqfwlrqv1 Ehunvrq wkhq pryhg wr wkh Pd|r Folqlf zkhuh kh
uhpdlqhg iru wkh uhvw ri klv zrunlqj olih dv fklhi vwdwlvwlfldq1 Lq wkh 4<63*v
kh sxeolvkhg qxphurxv sdshuv rq phglfdo dqg sxeolf khdowk pdwwhuv/ exw lq
4<77 kh wxuqhg klv dwwhqwlrq wr wkh vwdwlvwlfdo phwkrgrorj| ri elr0dvvd| dqg
sursrvhg wkh xvh ri wkh orjlvwlf/ frlqlqj wkh whup *orjlw* e| dqdorj| wr wkh
*surelw* ri Eolvv +iru zklfk kh zdv lqlwldoo| pxfk ghulghg,1 Wkh lvvxh ri orjlw
yhuvxv surelw zdv wdqjohg e| Ehunvrq*v vlpxowdqhrxv dwwdfnv rq wkh phwkrg
ri pd{lpxp olnholkrrg dqg klv dgyrfdf| ri plqlpxp fkl0vtxduhg hvwlpdwlrq
lqvwhdg1 Ehwzhhq 4<77 dqg 4<;3 kh zurwh d odujh qxpehu ri sdshuv rq erwk
lvvxhv> h{dpsohv duh Ehunvrq +4<84, dqg Ehunvrq +4<;3,1 Kh riwhq dgrswhg
d vrphzkdw suryrfdwlyh vw|oh/ dqg pxfk frqwuryhuv| hqvxhg1
Wkh forvh uhvhpeodqfh ri wkh orjlvwlf wr wkh qrupdo glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq
pxvw kdyh ehhq frpprq nqrzohgjh dprqj wkrvh zkr zhuh idploldu zlwk
<
wkh orjlvwlf> lw kdg ehhq ghprqvwudwhg e| Zlovrq +4<58, dqg zulwwhq xs e|
Zlqvru +4<65, +dqrwkhu frooderudwru ri Shduo,1 Zlovrq zdv suredeo| wkh uvw
wr sxeolvk dq dssolfdwlrq ri wkh orjlvwlf lq elr0dvvd| lq Zlovrq dqg Zrufhvwhu
+4<76,/ mxvw ehiruh Ehunvrq +4<77,1 Exw lw zdv Ehunvrq zkr shuvlvwhg dqg
irxjkw d orqj dqg vslulwhg fdpsdljq zklfk odvwhg iru vhyhudo ghfdghv1
Ehunvrq*v vxjjhvwlrq zdv qrw zhoo uhfhlyhg e| wkh elrphwulf hvwdeolvk0
phqw1 Lq wkh uvw sodfh/ wkh orjlw zdv uhjdughg dv vrphzkdw lqihulru dqg
glvuhsxwdeoh ehfdxvh xqolnh wkh surelw lw fdq qrw eh uhodwhg wr dq xqghuo|0
lqj +qrupdo, glvwulexwlrq ri wrohudqfh ohyhov1 Dlwfklvrq dqg Eurzq +4<8:,
glvplvv wkh orjlw lq d vlqjoh vhqwhqfh/ ehfdxvh lw %odfnv d zhoo0uhfrjql}hg dqg
pdqdjhdeoh iuhtxhqf| glvwulexwlrq ri wrohudqfhv zklfk wkh surelw fxuyh grhv
srvvhvv lq d qdwxudo zd|% +s1:5,1 Ehunvrq zdv dzduh ri wklv ghihfw dqg wulhg
wr uhphg| lw e| dgdswlqj wkh dxwrfdwdo|wlf dujxphqw/ lq Ehunvrq +4<84,/ exw
wklv glg qrw frqylqfh dv wkh dxwrfdwdo|wlf dujxphqw hvvhqwldoo| ghdov zlwk d
surfhvv ryhu wlph1 Lq uhwurvshfw lw lv vxusulvlqj wkdw vr pxfk lpsruwdqfh zdv
dwwdfkhg wr wkhvh vrphkzdw lghrorjlfdo srlqwv ri lqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Dw wkh wlph
qr rqh +qrw hyhq Ehunvrq, vhhpv wr kdyh uhfrjql}hg wkh iruplgdeoh srzhu ri
wkh orjlvwlf*v dqdo|wlfdo surshuwlhv1 Lq wkh vhfrqg sodfh/ Ehunvrq*v fdvh iru wkh
orjlw zdv qrw khoshg e| klv vlpxowdqhrxv dwwdfnv rq wkh hvwdeolvkhg zlvgrp
ri pd{lpxp olnholkrrg hvwlpdwlrq dqg klv dgyrfdf| ri plqlpxp fkl0vtxduhg1
Wkh xqsohdvdqw dwprvskhuh lq zklfk wklv glvfxvvlrq zdv frqgxfwhg fdq eh
jdxjhg iurp wkh dfulprqlrxv h{fkdqjhv ehwzhhq U1D1 Ilvkhu dqg Ehunvrq lq
Ilvkhu +4<87,1
Lq wkh sudfwlfdo dvshfw ri hdvh ri frpsxwdwlrq wkh orjlw kdg d fohdu dgydq0
wdjh ryhu wkh surelw/ hyhq zlwk pd{lpxp olnholkrrg hvwlpdwlrq1 Wr txrwh
Frfkudq +iurp klv frpphqwv rq Ilvkhu +4<87,/ s147:1, %11 wkh vshhg zlwk
zklfk d qhz whfkqltxh ehfrphv zlgho| xvhg lv frqvlghudeo| lq xhqfhg e| wkh
vlpsolflw| ru rwkhuzlvh ri wkh fdofxodwlrqv wkdw lw uhtxluhv1 Qh{w grru wr wkh
ohfwxuh urrp lq zklfk wkh surelw phwkrg lv h{srxqghg rqh pd| vwloo qg wkh
oderudwru| lq zklfk wkh zrunhuv frpsxwh wkhlu OG 83v e| wkh ^pxfk ohvv vr0
sklvwlfdwhg` Ehkuhqv +UhhgPxhqfk, phwkrg 11%1 Rq wklv frxqw wkh orjlw
vsuhdg pxfk pruh txlfno| lq zrun rru sudfwlfh wkdq lq wkh dfdghplf glv0
frxuvh1 Xqwlo wkh dgyhqw ri wkh frpsxwhu dqg wkh srfnhw fdofxodwru/ vrph
wuzhqw| |hduv odwhu/ doo qxphulfdo zrun zdv grqh e| kdqg/ wkdw lv zlwk shqflo
dqg sdshu/ vrphwlphv dlghg e| judsklfdo lqvshfwlrq ri *iuhhkdqg fxuyhv*/ *w0
whg e| h|h*1 Iru surelw dqg orjlw dqdo|vhv ri jurxshg gdwd ru fodvv iuhtxhqflhv
wkhuh zdv judsk sdshu zlwk d vshfldo julg rq zklfk d surelw ru orjlw fxuyh
zrxog dsshdu dv d vwudljkw olqh1 Zlovrq +4<58, kdg lqwurgxfhg wkh orjlvwlf
43
+ru *dxwrfdwdo|wlf*, julg/ dqg h{dpsohv ri orjqrupdo sdshu fdq eh irxqg lq
Dlwfklvrq dqg Eurzq +4<8:, dqg Dgdp +4<8;,>5 Ehunvrq klpvhoi kdg gh0
vljqhg orjlvwlf judsk sdshu dv zhoo dv vhyhudo qrprjudpv16 Qxphulfdo zrun
zdv vxssruwhg udwkhu ihheo| e| wkh volgh uxoh dqg e| phfkdqlfdo fdofxodwlqj
pdfklqhv/ gulyhq e| kdqg ru srzhuhg e| d vpdoo hohfwulf prwru/ zklfk zhuh
fdsdeoh ri dgglwlrq dqg pxowlsolfdwlrq> sxqfkhg fdug htxlsphqw zdv khosixo
li qxphurxv gdwd kdg wr eh dqdo|vhg1 Ydoxhv ri wkh qrupdo glvwulexwlrq +dqg
ri h{srqhqwldov dqg orjdulwkpv, zhuh rewdlqhg iurp sulqwhg wdeohv olnh Shdu0
vrq*v Elrphwulnd Wdeohv ru wkh Vwdwlvwlfdo Wdeohv ri Ilvkhu dqg \dwhv +4<6;,1
Iurp wkh uvw hglwlrq wkh odwwhu fduulhg vshfldoo| ghvljqhg wdeohv iru surelw
dqdo|vlv +zlwk dx{loldu| wdeohv frqwulexwhg e| Eolvv dqg e| Ilqqh|,/ exw iurp
wkh iwk hglwlrq ri 4<8: rqzdugv wkh| dovr lqfoxghg vshfldo wdeohv iru orjlw
dqdo|vlv1
Lq wlph/ wkh lghrorjlfdo frq lfw ryhu elr0dvvd| dedwhg1 Ilqqh|/ zkr kdg
ljqruhg wkh orjlw lq wkh vhfrqg hglwlrq ri klv wh{werrn ri 4<85/ pdgh dphqgv
lq wkh wklug hglwlrq ri 4<:3/ uhfrjql}lqj wkdw %zkdw pdwwhuv lv wkh ghshqghqfh
ri rq grvh dqg wkh xqnqrzq sdudphwhuv/ dqg wkh wrohudqfh glvwulexwlrq lv
phuho| d vxevwuxfwxuh ohdglqj wr wklv%1 Ehwzhhq 4<93 dqg 4<:3 wkh orjlw lq0
ghhg judgxdoo| dfklhyhg dq htxdo irrwlqj zlwk wkh surelw1 E| wkhq lw zdv dovr
vorzo| uhfrjql}hg wkdw lwv dqdo|wlfdo surshuwlhv shuplw pxfk zlghu vwdwlvwl0
fdo dssolfdwlrqv/ eh|rqg elr0dvvd|= lw fdq eh olqnhg wr glvfulplqdqw dqdo|vlv/
lw ohdgv wr orjolqhdu prghov/ lw fdq eh xvhg zlwk uhwurvshfwlyh vdpsohv dv
lq fdvh0frqwuro vwxglhv/ dqg vr rq1 Rqh ri wkh uvw wr uhfrjql}h dqg h{sorlw
wkhvh dyhqxhv zdv Fr{/ lq d vhulhv ri duwlfohv lq wkh 4<93*v/ dqg lq Fr{ +4<9<,1
Wklv jhqhudo ghyhorsphqw lv looxvwudwhg lq Wdeoh 4/ zklfk lv gudzq iurp wkh
mvwru hohfwurqlf uhshuwru| ri wzhoyh pdmru vwdwlvwlfdo mrxuqdov lq wkh hqjolvk
odqjxdjh1 Wkh wdeoh vkrz wkh qxpehu ri duwlfohv zklfk frqwdlq wkh zrug
%surelw% ru %orjlw%1 Wkh qxpehu ri vwdwlvwlfdo mrxuqdov lqfoxghg lq mvwru
lqfuhdvhv ryhu wlph/ dv grhv wkh qxpehu ri duwlfohv lq hdfk mrxuqdo> iurp 4<68
wr 4<;8 wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri duwlfohv fryhuhg dqqxdoo| lqfuhdvhv derxw hljkw0
irog1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh wkh uhodwlyh srvlwlrq ri %surelw% dqg %orjlw% wkdw frxqwv1
E| 4<:3 orjlw uhdfkhv sdulw|/ dqg wkhuhdiwhu vrduv dkhdg1
5
Ilqqh| +4<7:, wudfhv wkh lqyhqwlrq ri wkh suredelolw| julg wr d Iuhqfk duwloohu|pdq ri
wkh odwh 4;<3*v1
6
D qrprjudp lv d judsk iurp zklfk rqh fdq uhdg r d wudqvirupdwlrqv/ dv iurp d wdeoh>
vrsklvwlfdwhg qrprjudpv pd| shuplw wkh txlfn vroxwlrq ri pruh frpsolfdwhg htxdwlrqv1
44
Wdeoh 41 Qxpehu ri duwlfohv lq vwdwlvwlfdo mrxuqdov
frqwdlqlqj wkh zrug *surelw* ru *orjlw*1
4<68
4<73
4<78
4<83
4<88
4<93
4<98
4<:3
4<:8
4<;3
4<;8
4<<3
6<
77
7<
87
8<
97
9<
:7
:<
;7
;<
<7
surelw
orjlw
9
6
55
83
86
74
76
7;
78
<6
<;
45:
0
4
9
48
56
5:
74
94
:5
47:
548
644
Erwk surelw dqg orjlw zhuh dovr dgrswhg eh|rqg elr0dvvd|/ lq hfrqrplfv/
lq hslghplrorj| dqg lq wkh vrfldo vflhqfhv1 Wkh forvh olqn wr wrohudqfh ohyhov
ru wkuhvkrog ydoxhv zdv glvvroyhg dqg ohvv vwulqjhqw lqwhusuhwdwlrqv zhuh dg0
plwwhg> wkh hohjdqw exw txlwh devwudfw prgho ri wkh odwhqw uhjuhvvlrq htxdwlrq
zdv suredeo| uvw h{solflwo| irupxodwhg e| PfNhoyh| dqg ]dyrlqd +4<:8, iru
dq rughuhg surelw prgho ri wkh yrwlqj ehkdylrxu ri X1V1 Frqjuhvvphq/ idu
uhpryhg iurp elr0dvvd|1 Dqdo|vhv olqnlqj elqdu| glvfuhwh uhvsrqvhv wr vhyhudo
fryduldwhv ehfdph nqrzq dv orjlvwlf uhjuhvvlrq1 Wklv zlghu dffhswdqfh zdv
juhdwo| khoshg e| wkh dgyhqw ri wkh frpsxwhu dqg e| wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri sdfn0
djh urxwlqhv iru wkh pd{lpxp olnholkrrg hvwlpdwlrq ri erwk orjlw dqg surelw
prghov iurp lqglylgxdo gdwd1 Wkh epgs ru elrphglfdo gdwd surfhvvlqj
frpsxwhu sdfndjh ri 4<:: zdv suredeo| wkh uvw wr rhu wklv idflolw|/ zklfk
vrrq ehfdph d vwdqgdug ihdwxuh ri prvw vwdwlvwlfdo sdfndjhv1 E| wkh wlph
wkh uvw frpsuhkhqvlyh wh{werrn ri Krvphu dqg Ohphvkrz +4<;<, dsshduhg
wkh xvh ri vxfk urxwlqhv zdv wdnhq iru judqwhg1
Ri wkh wzr fdxvhv Ehunvrq dgyrfdwhg/ plqlpxp fkl0vtxduhg zdv wkxv
ryhuwdnhq e| wkh frpsxwhu uhyroxwlrq/ exw wkh orjlw zdv wkhuh wr vwd|1 Lwv
pxowlqrpldo jhqhudol}dwlrq zdv uvw prrwhg e| Fr{ +4<99, dqg wkhq/ lqgh0
shqghqwo|/ e| Wkhlo +4<9<, zkr lpphgldwho| vdz lwv srwhqwldo dv d jhqhudo
dssurdfk wr wkh prghoolqj ri vkduhv1 Wkh vlpsoh dojheud ri wklv jhqhudolvd0
wlrq rshqhg xs d yhu| zlgh hog ri dssolfdwlrqv lq hfrqrplfv dqg rwkhu vrfldo
vflhqfhv/ dqg lqwhuhvw lq dq lqwhusuhwdwlrq lq whupv ri dq xqghuo|lqj surfhvv
45
zdqhg1 Exw lq 4<:6 PfIdgghq/ zrunlqj dv d frqvxowdqw iru d Fdoliruqldq
sxeolf wudqvsruwdwlrq surmhfw/ uvw olqnhg wkh pxowlqrpldo orjlw wr wkh wkhru|
ri glvfuhwh fkrlfh iurp pdwkhpdwlfdo sv|fkrorj|1 Wklv surylghg d wkhruhwlfdo
irxqgdwlrq ri wkh orjlw prgho wkdw lv pxfk pruh surirxqg wkdq dq| wkhru|
sxw iruzdug iru wkh xvh ri wkh surelw lq elr0dvvd|1 Lw hduqhg PfIdgghq d
Qreho sul}h lq 53331
Uhihuhqfhv
Dgdp/ Gdqlho +4<8;,/ Ohv uìdfwlrqv gx frqvrppdwhxu ghydqw ohv sul{1 Sdulv= Vhghv1
Dlwfklvrq/ M1 dqg M1D1 F1 Eurzq +4<8:, Wkh Orjqrupdo Glvwulexwlrq1 Fdpeulgjh= Fdp0
eulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1
Ehunvrq/ M1 +4<77, Dssolfdwlrq ri wkh Orjlvwlf Ixqfwlrq wr Elr0dvvd|1 Mrxuqdo ri wkh
Dphulfdq Vwdwlvwlfdo Dvvrfldwlrq/ </ 68:6981
Ehunvrq/ M1 +4<84, Zk| L Suhihu Orjlwv wr Surelwv1 Elrphwulfv/ </ 68:6981
Ehunvrq/ M1 +4<;3, Plqlpxp Fkl0Vtxduh/ Qrw Pd{lpxp Olnholkrrg$ Dqqdov ri Pdwkh0
pdwlfdo Vwdwlvwlfv/ ;/ 78:7;:1
Eolvv/ F1L1 +4<67d, Wkh Phwkrg ri Surelwv1 Vflhqfh/ :</ 6;6<1
Eolvv/ F1L1 +4<67e, Wkh Phwkrg ri Surelwv1 Vflhqfh/ :</ 73<7431
Eolvv/ F1L1 +4<68, Wkh Fdofxodwlrq ri wkh Grvdjh0Pruwdolw| Fxuyh +zlwk dq dsshqgl{ e|
U1D1 Ilvkhu,1 Dqqdov ri Dssolhg Elrorj|/ 55/ 46749:1
Fr{/ Gdylg U1 +4<99, Vrph Surfhgxuhv Frqqhfwhg zlwk wkh Orjlvwlf Txdolwdwlyh Uhvsrqvh
Fxuyh1 Lq= I1Q1 Gdylg +hg, Uhvhdufk Sdshuv lq Vwdwlvwlfv= Ihvwvfkuliw iru M1 Qh|pdq1
Orqgrq= Zloh|1
Fr{/ Gdylg U1 +4<9<, Dqdo|vlv ri Elqdu| Gdwd1 Orqgrq= Fkdspdq dqg Kdoo1
Gx Sdvtxlhu/ Orxlv0Jxvwdyh +4<4;, Hvtxlvvh g*xqh qrxyhooh wkìrulh gh od srsxodwlrq1
Ylhuwhomdkuvvfkuliw ghu Qdwxuiruvfkhqghq Jhvhoovfkdiw lq ] ulfk/ 96/ 56957<1
Ihfkqhu/ J1W1 +4;93, Hohphqwh ghu Sv|fkrsk|vln1 Ohls}lj= Euhlwnrsi xqg Kçuwho1
Ilqqh|/ G1 +4<:4, Surelw Dqdo|vlv1 Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 +wklug hglwlrq>
uvw hglwlrq 4<7:,
Ilvkhu/ Vlu Urqdog +4<87, Wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Yduldqfh Zlwk Ydulrxv Elqrpldo Wudqvirupd0
wlrqv +Zlwk Frpphqwv e| P1 V1 Eduwohww/ I1 M1 Dqvfrpeh/ Z1 J1 Frfkudq dqg M1 Ehunvrq,/
Elrphwulfv/ 43/ 4634841
Jdggxp/ M1K1 +4<66, Uhsruw rq Elrorjlfdo Vwdqgdugv LLL= Phwkrgv ri Elrorjlfdo Dvvd|
Ghshqglqj rq Txdqwdo Uhvsrqvh1 Vshfldo Uhsruw Vhulhv ri wkh Phglfdo Uhvhdufk Frxqflo/
qr14;61 Orqgrq= Phglfdo Uhvhdufk Frxqflo1
Krvphu/ Gdylg Z1 dqg Vwdqoh| Ohphvkrz +4<;<, Dssolhg Orjlvwlf Uhjuhvvlrq Qhz \run=
Zloh|1
46
Pdowkxv/ W1U1 +4:<;, Dq Hvvd| rq wkh Sulqflsoh ri Srsxodwlrq1 Orqgrq1
PfIdgghq/ Gdqlho +5334, Hfrqrplf Fkrlfhv1 +Qreho sul}h dffhswdqfh vshhfk1, Dphulfdq
Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ <4/ 6856:31
Phdgrzv/ G1K1/ Phdgrzv/ G1O1/ Udqghuv M1 dqg Z1Z1 Ehkuhq +4<:5, Wkh Olplwv wr
Jurzwk Qhz \run= Xqlyhuvh Errnv1
Plqhu/ M1 U1 +4<66, Slhuuh0Iudqêrlv Yhukxovw/ wkh Glvfryhuhu ri wkh Orjlvwlf Ixqfwlrq1
Kxpdq Elrorj|/ 8/ 9:69;<1
Shduo/ Ud|prqg +4<55, Wkh Elrorj| ri Ghdwk1 Sklodghoskld= Olsslqfrww1
Shduo/ Ud|prqg +4<5:, Wkh Lqgljhqrxv Srsxodwlrq ri Dojhuld lq 4<591 Vflhqfh 99/ 8<6
8<71
Shduo/ Ud|prqg +4<6<, Wkh Qdwxudo Klvwru| ri Srsxodwlrq R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw|
Suhvv1
Shduo/ Ud|prqg dqg Orzhoo M1 Uhhg +4<53, Rq wkh Udwh ri Jurzwk ri wkh Srsxodwlrq
ri wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv dqg lwv Pdwkhpdwlfdo Uhsuhvhqwdwlrq1 Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo
Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ 9/ 5:85;;1
Shduo/ Ud|prqg dqg Orzhoo M1 Uhhg +4<55, D Ixuwkhu Qrwh rq wkh Pdwkhpdwlfdo Wkhru|
ri Srsxodwlrq Jurzwk1 Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ ;/ 69869;1
Shduo/ U1/ F1S1 Zlqvru dqg I1E1 Zklwh +4<5;, Wkh Irup ri wkh Jurzwk Fxuyh ri wkh
Fdqwdorxsh +Fxfxplv phor, xqghu hog frqglwlrqv1 Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Dfdghp|
ri Vflhqfhv/ 47/ ;<8<341
Shduo/ U1/ O1M1 Uhhg dqg M1I1 Nlvk +4<73, Wkh Orjlvwlf Fxuyh dqg wkh Fhqvxv Frxqw ri
4<731 Vflhqfh/ <5/ 7;97;;1
Uhhg/ O1M1/ dqg M1 Ehunvrq +4<5<, Wkh Dssolfdwlrq ri wkh Orjlvwlf Ixqfwlrq wr H{shulphq0
wdo Gdwd1 Mrxuqdo ri Sk|vlfdo Fkhplvwu|/ 66/ :93::<1
Vwljohu/ V1P1 +4<;9, Wkh Klvwru| ri Vwdwlvwlfv1 Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw|
Suhvv1
Wkhlo/ K1 +4<9<, D pxowlqrpldo h{whqvlrq ri wkh olqhdu orjlw prgho1 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf
Uhylhz/ 43/ 58458<1
Yhukxovw/ Slhuuh0Iudqêrlv +4;6;, Qrwlfh vxu od orl txh od srsxodwlrq vxlw gdqv vrq dffurlvvh0
phqw1 Fruuhvsrqgdqfh pdwkìpdwltxh hw Sk|vltxh/ sxeolìh sdu D1 Txhwhohw/ 43/ 4464531
Yhukxovw/ Slhuuh0Iudqêrlv +4;78, Uhfkhufkhv pdwkìpdwltxhv vxu od orl g*dffurlvvhphqw gh
od srsxodwlrq1 Qrxyhdx{ Pìprluhv gh o*Dfdgìplh Ur|doh ghv Vflhqfhv/ ghv Ohwwuhv hw ghv
Ehdx{0Duwv gh Ehojltxh/ 4;/ 46;1
Yhukxovw/ Slhuuh0Iudqêrlv +4;7:, Ghx{lëph Pìprluh vxu od orl g*dffurlvvhphqw gh od srsxod0
wlrq1 Qrxyhdx{ Pìprluhv gh o*Dfdgìplh Ur|doh ghv Vflhqfhv/ ghv Ohwwuhv hw ghv Ehdx{0Duwv
gh Ehojltxh/ 53/ 4651
Zlovrq/ Hgzlq E1 +4<58, Wkh Orjlvwlf ru Dxwrfdwdo|wlf Julg1 Surfhhglqjv ri wkh qdwlrqdo
Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ 44/ 7647891
47
Zlovrq/ H1E1 dqg Mdqh Zrufhvwhu +4<76, Wkh Ghwhuplqdwlrq ri O1G183 dqg Lwv Vdpsolqj
Huuru lq Elr0dvvd|1 Surfhhglqjv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ 5</ :<;81
Zlqvru/ F1S1 +4<65, D Frpsdulvrq ri Fhuwdlq V|pphwulfdo Jurzwk Fxuyhv1 Surfhhglqjv
ri wkh Zdvklqjwrq Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv/ 55/ :6;71
\xoh/ J1 Xgqh| +4<58, Wkh Jurzwk ri Srsxodwlrq dqg wkh Idfwruv zklfk Frqwuro Lw1
Mrxuqdo ri wkh Ur|do Vwdwlvwlfdo Vrflhw|/ 6;/ 48<1
Rwkhu Elrjudsklfdo Vrxufhv
Rq Shduo=
Mhqqlqjv/ K1V1 +4<74, Ud|prqg Shduo/ 4;:<4<731 Elrjudsklfdo Phprluv ri wkh Qdwlrqdo
Dfdghp| ri Vflhqfhv ri wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv/ ei 55/ qu1 47/ 5<867:1
Plqhu/ Mrkq U1 dqg Mrvhsk Ehunvrq +4<73, Ud|prqg Shduo/ 4;:<4<731 Wkh Vflhqwlf
Prqwko|/ 85/ 43<54<71
Rq Uhhg=
Frfkudq/ Z1J1 +4<9:, Orzhoo Mdfre Uhhg1 Mrxuqdo ri wkh Ur|do Vwdwlvwlfdo Vrflhw|/ Vhulhv
D/ 463/ 5:<05;41
Rq Jdggxp=
Ihogehuj/ Z1 +4<9:, Mrkq Khqu| Jdggxp/ 4<334<981 Elrjudsklfdo Phprluv ri Ihoorzv
ri wkh Ur|do Vrflhw|/ 46/ 8:::1
Rq Ehunvrq=
Duplwdjh/ S1/ dqg W1 Frowrq +hgv, +4<<;, Mrvhsk Ehunvrq 4;<<4<;51 Hqf|forshgld ri
Elrvwdwlvwlfv/ yroxph L/ 5<36331 Qhz \run= Zloh|1
Wd|oru/ Z1I1 +4<;6, Mrvhsk Ehunvrq/ 4;<<04<;51 Mrxuqdo ri wkh Ur|do Vwdwlvwlfdo Vrflhw|/
Vhulhv D/ 479/ 74674<1
48
Descargar