mayapan

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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31522-x
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Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the
Ancient Maya
Douglas J. Kennett 1 ✉, Marilyn Masson2, Carlos Peraza Lope3, Stanley Serafin4, Richard J. George1,
Tom C. Spencer5, Julie A. Hoggarth6, Brendan J. Culleton7, Thomas K. Harper 8, Keith M. Prufer 9,10,
Susan Milbrath11, Bradley W. Russell2, Eunice Uc González3, Weston C. McCool12, Valorie V. Aquino9,
Elizabeth H. Paris 13, Jason H. Curtis 14, Norbert Marwan 15, Mingua Zhang 16, Yemane Asmerom
Victor J. Polyak 17, Stacy A. Carolin5, Daniel H. James5, Andrew J. Mason18, Gideon M. Henderson18,
Mark Brenner14, James U. L. Baldini19, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach 20 & David A. Hodell 5 ✉
17,
The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern
world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary
scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological,
historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among
climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya
capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data
sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling
correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue
that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal
regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until
European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.
1 Department of Anthropology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA. 2 Department of Anthropology, The University of Albany-SUNY,
Albany, NY 12222, USA. 3 Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia – Centro INAH Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán 97310, Mexico. 4 School of Medical
Sciences and Earth and Sustainability Science Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia. 5 Godwin Laboratory for
Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 4EQ, UK. 6 Department of Anthropology & Institute of
Archaeology, Baylor University, Waco, TX 76798, USA. 7 Institutes of Energy and the Environment, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA
16802, USA. 8 Department of Anthropology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA. 9 Department of Anthropology, University of
New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA. 10 Center for Stable Isotopes, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA. 11 Florida Museum of
Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. 12 Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
13 Department of Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada. 14 Department of
Geological Sciences, Land Use and Environmental Change Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. 15 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam 14473, Germany. 16 Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA. 17 Department of Earth and
Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA. 18 Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3AN, UK.
19 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK. 20 Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria
University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, UK. ✉email: kennett@anth.ucsb.edu; dah73@cam.ac.uk
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rcheological and historical studies have proposed linkages
among global climate change, societal instability, violent
conflict, and sociopolitical collapse1–7, but also instances
of resilience, transformation and sustainability in the face of climate pressures8–10. The influence of climate change on civil
conflict in the last century has also been the focus of compelling
statistical studies11,12, and an important nexus for debate,
revealing the importance of human agency and unexpected, nonlinear relationships between climate and human behavior13–19.
Longer-term climatic, archeological, and historical records can
contribute to these contemporary debates, but demand a rigorous
transdisciplinary framework that bridges natural and social
systems8,18. We report a singular case study of the complexities of
the natural and social systems at the Postclassic Maya capital of
Mayapan (1200–1450 calendar year [cal.] CE) throughout its
history and its ultimate demise. This occurred in the context of
drought, civil conflict, and the collapse of the regional state. A
period of political balkanization after 1450 cal. CE preserved
complex organizational institutions and fostered a resilient,
peninsular-wide market economy observed at European contact
in the early 16th century CE. We examine climate stresses to
Mayapan’s local and regional subsistence and economic systems,
and the behaviors of human actors that included political violence
within these dynamic social and political transformations.
Climate assessment reports of the intergovernmental panel on
climate change (IPCC) evaluate risk and model vulnerability during the last century at regional and global scales20. Long-term climate reconstructions reveal that some climate variations in the past
were of significantly greater magnitude than those experienced in
the last 100 years. Furthermore, current and future anthropogenic
influences are projected to amplify the severity of extreme events in
the water cycle and lead to more intense and prolonged droughts
than those that impacted agricultural productivity in the recent
past21,22. Archeological and historical records are well-suited for
examining past societal effects of climate crises over long-term
cycles. Such effects in Pre-Columbian Mesoamerica may have
included migration, demographic decline, geographic shifts in
centers of political power, and warfare. We focus on the latter,
specifically the initiation and consequences of societal conflicts that
coincided with climate impacts on the agrarian food base and
regional political economy. These subsistence and related economic
foundations are well-known from the archeological record and
from memories of descendant peoples in early Colonial period
European accounts12. The magnitude and duration of the climate
impacts in the northern Yucatán Peninsula (Mayapan) may have
transcended established mechanisms to overcome modest interannual rainfall fluctuations23, given the limitations of cumbersome
transport and the long-term storage of maize, the primary staple
grain2,24.
The Maya region offers the breadth and depth of archeological,
historical, and climate records essential for studying correlations
between social change and fluctuating climate conditions. Here,
we compare the archeological and ethnohistorical evidence for
civil conflict with local and regional records of climate change at
the last large Pre-Columbian Maya capital city of Mayapan
(1200–1450 cal. CE, Fig. 1). Multiple studies have shown that
patterns of political formation, consolidation, and fragmentation
of Maya states were cyclical well before Mayapan became a
Postclassic Period political center. From the middle of the first
millennium BCE until Mayapan’s emergence, kingdoms formed,
consolidated, or expanded their domains of subjects, then ultimately fragmented at the same time that new centers emerged to
dominate the landscape25–28. Large cities first appeared along the
western edges of the Maya region by 1000–800 cal. BCE29 and
numerous monumental centers and networks of villages developed in the heart of the Maya Lowlands by 500 cal. BCE30. One of
2
the largest state capitals in all of Maya prehistory (in terms of
monumentality), El Mirador, was established between 100 cal.
BCE and 250 cal. CE27. The Lowlands region was dotted with
kingdoms large and small, amidst a densely populated countryside of towns and villages throughout the Classic period, with the
Late Classic Period (600–800 cal. CE) witnessing the emergence
of the largest number of competing states in the southern lowlands. Shifting centers of influence and the most dramatic
sequential disintegration of these cities occurred during the
Terminal Classic period, between 800 and 1000 cal. CE, with
climate change argued to be a contributing factor to increasing
conflict2,31–34. During this interval, the towns and cities of the
northern and coastal peninsula (e.g., Uxmal, Chichen Itza,
Aventura) were magnets for Maya settlement, in turn experiencing political and demographic decline that coincide with multiple lines of evidence for drought during the eleventh century cal.
CE.10,35,36. But northern and coastal Maya populations subsequently recovered quickly and the political capital of Mayapan
arose and governed from at least 1100 to 1450 cal. CE37. Mayapan
provides an appropriate test case for exploring the causes and
impacts of civil conflict because of its temporal proximity to
European Contact, and retrospective, Colonial-Period documentary accounts provide additional evidence that can be
evaluated with chronological (radiocarbon [14C] dates) and
human osteological data.
Mayapan emerged as a regional capital on the Yucatán
Peninsula, following the demise of Chichen Itza between 1000
and 1100 cal. CE38,39. Numerous political families, smaller polities, and substantial populations endured through the fall of the
Chichen Itza polity. Many of these entities were reintegrated into
the Mayapan confederacy, especially those concentrated in the
northwest region of the peninsula35. Historical sources indicate
that the most influential nobility came from the houses of
the Cocom, the Xiu, and the Chel (among others) who governed
the polity as members of Mayapan’s ruling council40,41. These
lords established the city’s monumental center, replete with its
principal pyramid, the Temple of K’uk’ulkan, and a nucleated set
of other temples, colonnaded halls, and shrines covered in murals
and sculptures that reflect the city’s mythical foundations39,42.
Densely settled residential zones extend from the center in all
directions within the city’s 9.1 km-long circumferential wall,
which encloses an area of 4.2 km2, and housing sprawls at least a
half kilometer beyond this boundary (Fig. 1)43. Twelve formal
gates in the wall directed pedestrian traffic into and out of the
city; the wall was clearly a defensive feature43. The monumental
and settlement zones were founded with the intent of establishing
a new political capital. Population aggregation and recruitment
across the Yucatán peninsula, and occasionally beyond, persisted
throughout Mayapan’s history as indicated by strontium isotopes
in human teeth44. Subject peoples were summoned to move to the
city to provide all manner of services41. Human remains are
ubiquitous at the archeological site, which was once home to
15–20,000 inhabitants who were sustained by household gardens
and orchards, hunting, and rain-fed maize agriculture, supplemented by trade37. Dietary stable isotope studies indicate heavy
reliance on maize, a crop that was highly sensitive to periodic
droughts, given the limitations for long-term grain storage44,45.
In this work, we use a transdisciplinary approach that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to
examine the dynamic interactions of climate change, civil conflict,
and political collapse at Mayapan during the 14th and 15th centuries CE. We use generalized linear modeling to demonstrate
that increases in traumatic injuries evident in the bioarchaeological record strongly correlate with drought conditions between
1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions that ultimately resulted in the
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a
Gate D
Gate G
MB 1, MB3
Gate H
MB 2
Gate O
Gate T
Mayapán
Gulf
of
Mexico
Defensive wall
Mexico
Mexi
M
Me
co
Gate EE
Be
Belize
ze
ze
N
meters
0
Sample locations
250
500
Hon
Hond
H
Ho
Honduras
onduras
ura
ras
meters
b
Wall
c
Bench
0
Gate O
Gua
Gu
Guat
G
ua
u
atem
ema
ma
m
aa
Guatemala
Gates
1000
Gate EE
5
10
Gate D
1m
Gate T
Gate T (blocked)
Gate H
Gate G
Fig. 1 Map of Mayapan. a Layout of the city showing housing complexes, the defensive wall, formal gates, and the locations of skeletal samples (red dots).
b Gate and wall configurations adapted from43. c Cross-section of the tiered double-wall construction surrounding Mayapan. MB, Mass Burial.
abandonment of the city, but that Maya political and economic
structures endured regionally until European contact in the early
16th century CE.
Results
Integration of archeological and historical observations. We
used accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) to 14C-date purified
bone collagen from 205 human skeletons to develop a hightemporal-resolution history of population fluctuations at Mayapan (Fig. 2c; also see Methods and Supplementary Note 4). We
then integrated these data with archeological, historical, osteological, and paleoclimatological data to explore relations between
periods of societal stability or fragility, and drought. These data
indicate a rural population in the vicinity of this location from the
Middle Preclassic (~1000 cal. BCE) through the Colonial Period.
After the establishment of the Postclassic capital by 1150 cal. CE,
there was rapid nucleation of populations starting ~1200 cal. CE
that continued through 1320 cal. CE (Fig. 2c).
According to retrospective historical documents, Mayapan was
a militaristic state that raided its peninsular enemies and took war
captives destined for slavery or sacrifice. Historical records can be
biased, so we used archeological, osteological, and radiocarbon
data to establish the timing of a series of events recorded
historically using the Maya K’atun calendar4,40. These intervals
include: 1) a period of “terror and war” [1302–1323 cal. CE], 2) an
interval of “inquisition against members of the Xiu nobility”
[1361–1381 cal. CE]; 3) decentralization and population
decline [1382–1401 cal. CE], 4) massacre of the Cocom noble
family [1440–1461 cal. CE] and 5) political demise of the regional
state and abandonment of the city [post–1450 cal. CE]
(Fig. 2a–d).
Incorporating regional climate & paleoclimate records. To
investigate linkages between these events and climate, we compared the records of cultural change to local and regional
paleoclimate records. Modern rainfall on the northwestern
Yucatán Peninsula is marked by a strong north-south gradient,
from a minimum of 450 mm yr−1 at Progreso on the northwest
coast, to 1000 mm yr−1 at Mérida, and 1150 mm yr−1 at Abala,
near Mayapan (Supplementary Fig. 1). A pronounced west-toeast increase in precipitation across the northern peninsula, a
consequence of the prevailing easterly winds heading inland
(westward) from the Caribbean water source, also exists. Rainfall
is highly seasonal, with the wet season lasting from May to
October. Northern Yucatán lies within the main North Atlantic
hurricane belt and a single storm event can contribute a substantial proportion of annual precipitation for that year. Farming
in the region depends heavily on the timing of the onset,
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duration, and total effective rainfall of the wet season46. Although
short-term droughts tend to be spatially and temporally patchy in
northern Yucatán47, more protracted droughts during the historic
period are evident in documentary and paleoclimate archives48,49.
Those extended dry intervals of the Colonial Period caused welldocumented crop failures, severe famines, and high mortality that
destabilized the economy and led to periodic dispersal of populations from towns in the northern Yucatán48.
Date (cal CE)
1100
a
1150
1200
1250
1400
1450
1500
1401–1421: Benevolent
leaders, prosperity
1302–1382: Warfare, purge of nobility
(rebellion against Cocom)
1185–1204: First founding event
b
1350
1382–1401: Order restored,
Cocom summon Canul allies
Ethnohistoric events
3
1300
1421–1441: Severe famine
1441–1461: Mayapán collapse
1 12 10 8 6
Probability
density
Mass burials
4
2 13 11 9
7 5
3
1 12 10 8 6 4 K’atun
Conflict
Peace
Documented revolt,
K’atun 3 Ahau
0.08
0.06
0.04
MB1 & MB2
MB3
Xiu-led Cocom massacre,
K’atun 8 Ahau
0.02
c
0.8
Radiocarbon dates
(human skeletal remains; n=205)
0.4
14
C SPD
0.00
0.0
Causes of death
5.7%
14.9%
52.9%
24.3%
21.8%
0%
70%
63.3%
47.1%
Other causes
10
100
1000
iii. Aguada X’caamal
P. coronatus δ18O
higher
salinity
wetter
-6
4
-5
wetter
‰ VPDB
# cm-3
1
-2
2
External conflict
0
ii. Aguada X’caamal
A. beccarii
-4
0
Civil conflict
50
i. Hiatus in stalagmite M1 (2σ estimate;
combined U/Th and layer counting)
Climate records
‰ VPDB
100
drying trend
-5
-4
iv. Tzabnah δ18O
‰ VPDB
e
% (stacked)
drier
-4
v. YOK-I δ18O
-3
Aztec
drought
drier
1 Rabbit
drought
2
0
Annual
-2
30-yr smoothed
vi. Barranca de Amealco PDSI
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
wetter
4
June PDSI
d
-4
drier
1500
Date (cal CE)
Fig. 2 Culture and climate records. a Retrospective events recorded historically using the Maya K’atun calendar, highlighting intervals of conflict and peace
within Mayapan40,41; b Summed probability distributions of AMS-14C-dated human skeletons from mass burials MB1, MB2, and MB3 as an independent
measure of internal conflict (OxCal Code and model provided in Supplementary Code 2); c Summed probability distribution of directly AMS-14C-dated
human skeletal remains from Mayapan as a population size estimate88 (see methods and Supplementary Discussion 4; Code available in Supplementary
Code 1); d Osteological data indicative of internal or external conflict and other causes. The sample included 35 individuals <18 years of age, 142 individuals
≥18 years of age (of which 48 are males, 49 are females and 45 are adults of indeterminate sex), and 28 individuals of unknown age (see Supplementary
Discussion 3 and Supplementary Data 1). e Local and regional climate records. (i) Estimated age (± 2σ) of the hiatus for Mayapan stalagmite M1 (this
study). (ii) Abundance of the benthic foraminifer Ammonia beccarii in the sediment profile from Aguada X’caamal90 with an updated time scale (this study).
(iii) Oxygen isotope record of the snail Pyrgophorus coronatus from the same core90. (iv) Oxygen isotope record from the Chaac speleothem from Tzabnah
Cave, Tecoh, Yucatán53; (v) Oxygen isotope record from stalagmite Yok-I from Yok Balum Cave, Belize2; (vi). Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
inferred from tree ring record from Barranca de Amealco, Mexico61. All unpublished datasets plotted are provided in Supplementary Data 2 and the Source
Data File. U/Th, Uranium/Thorium, MB, Mass Burial.
4
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Rainfall over the Yucatán Peninsula is derived mainly from the
Caribbean, Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico sources, and only
occasionally from the Pacific2. Summer wet season rainfall
dynamics on the peninsula are influenced by the Caribbean
Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), an easterly trade wind system. Variability of
the CLLJ depends on the position and strength of the Bermuda
High50, meridional sea level pressure (SLP), and sea surface
temperature (SST). Stronger trade winds, caused by a high
meridional SLP gradient, result in lower SSTs and drier
conditions on the Yucatán Peninsula. The sea-level pressure
gradient between the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific links
the region in a complex fashion with the inter-tropical
convergence zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) system in the Pacific51,52, influencing Yucatán moisture
dynamics indirectly. Such linkages tend to occur in the wet
season, prior to El Niño events51, which reduce tropical
depressions and hurricanes in the study region. Outside the
rainy season, winter nortes occasionally bring rainfall and cold,
windy weather from the Gulf of Mexico46.
The YOK-I speleothem δ18O record2 shows a series of wetter
intervals between 1100 and 1340 CE, an interval when
populations at Mayapan were growing (Fig. 2e). A drying
trend that began after 1340 CE is inferred from YOK-I δ18O
data and is consistent with the more local, but lower-resolution
Chaac speleothem δ18O record from Tzabnah Cave in Tecoh,
located ~12 km north of Mayapan (Supplementary Note 1)53,54.
The mid-14th-century drying trends are consistent with a
growth hiatus between 1397 and 1427 CE (2σ confidence
interval) identified here in a stalagmite (M1) collected from a
cave located directly below the central Plaza at Mayapan, and
analyzed for the present study (Supplementary Notes 1 and 2;
Supplementary Data 1). One explanation for cessation of
growth is that the climate became so dry at Mayapan that drip
water stopped reaching the stalagmite and calcite deposition
ceased. When deposition resumed about 1600 CE, the
stalagmite mineralogy changed from calcite below to aragonite
above the hiatus. At Aguada X’caamal, a small sinkhole ~27 km
west of Mayapan, the δ18O and salinity of the lake water
increased abruptly at 88 cm in the core, corresponding to a date
of 1345–1458 CE (2σ confidence interval; Supplementary
Note 2). Stable isotope and faunal changes in Aguada X’caamal
coincide approximately with the detected hiatus and mineralogical transition from calcite to aragonite in stalagmite M1
from beneath Mayapan.
Population Dynamics and Civil Conflict. Summed probability
distributions (SPD) of directly radiocarbon-dated human skeletal material (Fig. 2c, Supplementary Fig. 14, Supplementary
Note 4) from Mayapan show steady population growth and
nucleation starting ~1100 cal. CE and a peak between 1200 and
1350. Populations started to decline after ~1350 cal. CE and
were very low by 1450 cal. CE. This is consistent with both the
K’atun 1 Ahau (1382–1401 cal. CE) depopulation and the
K’atun 8 Ahau (1441–1461 cal. CE) depopulation and abandonment of Mayapan, mentioned in multiple historical sources
(e.g., Fray Diego de Landa and the Books of Chilam Balam of
Chumayel, Tizimin, and Maní)40. Public artistic programs and
historical records also suggest greater interaction with Aztec
populations from Central Mexico during that time, initially
through Mexican mercenaries and traders55. At the same time,
the Cocom lineage aligned itself with Canul allies at the end of
the 14th century, associated with internal disputes with their
Xiu rivals (Fig. 2a)40.
Mayapan’s cityscape contains varied and numerous funerary
deposits, as well as extra-funerary deposits, interpreted as mass
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graves (Supplementary Note 3; Supplementary Data 2). Multiple
individuals were often interred together in household graves, and
ossuaries containing the secondary deposits of skeletal material
exist within the monumental center, as well as in high-status
houses in the residential zone56–58. In contrast, other large
deposits of human remains in the monumental center (e.g.,
Round Temple Complex) likely represent sacrificed (or otherwise
killed) war captives from polities targeted by the Mayapan state
elsewhere on the peninsula (beyond the northwest stronghold of
the confederacy). One such deposit was found in an alleyway next
to the site’s iconic Round Temple, which contained the crania and
long bones of 25 individuals who were directly AMS-14C-dated to
1302–1362 cal. CE (Supplementary Note 3). Three of the
individuals suffered perimortem cranial trauma and cut marks
on some of the bones, indicating postmortem dismemberment
and defleshing, likely caused by intentional desecration56,57,59.
These mortuary deposits may correspond to historical references
of conflict and strife waged on the Yucatán Peninsula between
1302 and 1362 cal. CE40, during a period when Mayapan’s
monumental landscape was fully built and when its population
and regional influence were at their peak.
Another type of mass grave in the city is unlike either
funerary features or deposits of the remains of war captives.
Rather, it is indicative of violence experienced by individuals
who were likely high-status residents of Mayapan. These two
shallow mass graves also exhibit desecration of human and
ritual pottery remains (deity effigies); both are adjacent to
ceremonial edifices. Both features date to the late 14th century
(1350–1400 cal. CE; Supplementary Note 3). One is in the
center of the city by Temple Q-80 (MB1; Q.79; 10 individuals;
Supplementary Fig. 9) and the other is next to the Itzmal Ch’en
temple and colonnaded hall, part of an outlying ceremonial
group near the far eastern gates of the city wall (MB2; 20
individuals; see Fig. 1)37,57. Both MB1 and MB2 are shallow
graves that contain multiple, mostly disarticulated individuals
who were buried along with smashed pottery (Chen Mul
Modeled censers). Four of the individuals in MB1 suffered
violent deaths, as indicated by stone knives embedded in their
scapula, rib cage, or pelvis60. The bones of ~20 individuals in
MB2 were chopped into pieces and burned. Both observations
are consistent with historical records for the late 14th century
CE, which indicate that one faction of the government
persecuted, tortured, and executed rival factions. Following
this turmoil, sources suggest a restoration of order and several
decades of relative stability just before and after 1400 CE40.
Direct AMS 14C dates on 10 individuals from MB1-MB2 are
statistically indistinguishable from one another, with a modeled
age of 1360 to 1400 cal. CE. This coincides with a major central
Mexican drought in the Aztec-controlled highlands
(1378–1404 cal. CE)61, which was the most extreme dry episode
since 771 cal. CE. The historical records of massacres at
Mayapan also correspond with the population decline that is
evident in the decreasing number of directly AMS 14C-dated
individuals (Fig. 2c), as well as evidence for the destruction and
abandonment of some buildings around the same time as MB1
and MB237. Remnant populations persisted in the city, but new
architectural construction was much reduced as violence
increased.
The last recorded mass burial at Mayapan (MB3) flanks the
northern staircase of the Temple of K’uk’ulkan, and is the best
candidate for the Xiu-led massacre of members of the Cocom
family that resulted in the city’s collapse and ultimate
abandonment. The skulls and isolated limbs of nine individuals,
many of them children (n = 7), were found mixed with debris
from building collapse (Supplementary Note 3). Two of these
individuals show evidence for violent death in the form of
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perimortem rib puncture wounds, consistent with a massacre.
Direct AMS-14C measurements indicate that they were killed
after 1400 cal. CE. Radiocarbon dates for six of these individuals
are statistically indistinguishable and suggest a single massacre
between 1440 and 1460 cal. CE. Mitochondrial DNA indicates
that these individuals shared strong maternal genetic affinities
and were potentially related on the maternal line44. Remarkable
agreement between the historical accounts of this politically
charged, divisive event and the calibrated radiocarbon dates on
physical remains suggests that MB3 pertains to the violent
battle and destruction of Mayapan in K’atun 8 Ahau (14411460 CE). This and other historical references are increasingly
corroborated by paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and archeological datasets, dated using AMS 14C and U-Th series
methods. Like Mayapan’s ultimate demise, drought and famine
are also described in the Book of Chilam Balam of Mani (Fig. 2;
1441–1460 CE)62.
Fisher’s exact tests (one-tailed) were used to compare counts of
deaths from internal conflict during Mayapan’s occupation
(Fig. 2). Results show significant differences between numbers
of deaths in the following intervals: Early to Middle
(1100–1400 cal. CE) p = 0.053; Early to Late (1100–1500 cal.
CE) p < 0.001; Middle to Late (1250–1500 cal. CE) p = 0.002
(Fig. 2D). Population decline and violence coincided with a
marked period of drying indicated by greater oxygen isotope
values in the YOK-I (Belize) and nearby Chaac speleothem-based
paleoclimate records, a shift to greater δ18O values in snails from
a sediment core taken in nearby Aguada X’caamal, and the abrupt
rise in the abundance of the euryhaline benthic foraminifer A.
beccarii in the X’caamal profile (Fig. 2; Supplementary Note 2). In
the context of drought, leaders of political units who had
belonged to the Mayapan confederacy returned to their home
territories after the dissolution of the regional state. They headed
numerous smaller polities across the peninsula, some of which
were quite powerful and prosperous at the time of Spanish
contact63.
Discussion
The period of depopulation at Mayapan also overlapped with
the drought of 1 Rabbit (1454 cal. CE) that caused severe
famine in Aztec Central Mexico (Fig. 2)64. That famine followed closely on the heels of a devastating series of climate
disasters that affected Central Mexico in 1446, especially,
starting in 1450 cal. CE. Impacts of those Central Mexican
droughts on the Maya region remain unclear, but surely,
lucrative long-distance trade with Central Mexico would have
been temporarily disrupted65. Trade was an especially important livelihood for a populous network of towns across the
peninsula, extending from the Gulf Coast to the Caribbean.
Significant fluctuations in local rainfall, especially in the form
of extreme droughts, invariably affected agricultural productivity, despite the significant investment of Mayapan and its
contemporary cities and towns in extensive agrarian farming,
intensive cultivation of orchards and gardens, and complementary activities of hunting, fishing, and husbandry of
domestic turkeys and deer37. Spatial differences in rainfall, soil
depth, surface water, and elevation gave rise to diverse local
production opportunities and histories in the Maya
Lowlands66, and importantly, differences in relative vulnerability to short-term or local climate variations. Variability in
the development of water management and intensive agricultural systems also occurred in the lowlands, although such
investments are generally more limited in the northwest and
central Yucatán compared to other zones67–71. Short-lived,
temporary crises were systematically addressed by exchanges
6
Climate
0
0.
Civil
conflict
01
0.
***
0.4641
35
40
Population/
Centralization
Fig. 3 Summary of model results. The diagram compares the direction and
significance of general linear modeled relationships between climate,
population, and civil conflict. P-values are given for each relationship, with
asterisks denoting significance. Dotted lines show non-significant
relationships. Colors correspond with model fit plots in Supplementary
Fig. 15.
with adjacent peninsular regions of food, an important commodity sold in Pre-Columbian and Contact Period Maya
marketplaces72,73.
We used Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) to examine the
relationships among climate change, fluctuations in population
size/nucleation (SPD), and osteological data indicative of internal
conflict during Mayapan’s entire occupational history
(~1100–1450 cal. CE; Fig. 3, Supplementary Note 3, Supplementary Figs. 15-16). Osteological data from directly radiocarbondated human skeletal material (associated with civil conflict) were
compared with local/regional climate data. Model results show a
significant increase in internal conflict associated with drought
conditions (Tzabnah, p = 0.0001; YOK-I; p = 0.0033; Fig. 3,
Supplementary Table 2). Comparisons of climate and population
size/nucleation during this same interval reveal a non-significant
relationship, suggesting population dynamics were largely structured by phenomena other than local precipitation. A multivariate GLM, comparing climate records to conflict with SPD as
an interaction term, rejects the hypothesis that climate only has a
direct effect on internal conflict when population numbers are
high.
Despite the lack of association between climate and population
throughout the occupational sequence, we do find a significant
relationship between drought and population decline when we
examine the period between 1350 and 1430 cal. CE, i.e., the time
when the most substantial population decline occurred
(p = 0.0065; Supplementary Fig. 16). Results indicate that both
climate drying and population decline or dispersal correspond to
the dramatic increase in civil conflict near the end of the Mayapan occupational sequence. Finally, we also explored the relationship between warm summer/fall sea-surface temperatures in
the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela)74 and conflict, argued to be related
to increased warfare in the Maya region at the end of the Classic
Period (~700–900 CE)75, but found no significant relationship
(p = 0.65).
Our findings support Mayapan’s storied institutional collapse between 1441 and 1461 cal. CE, a consequence of civil
conflict driven by political rivalry and ambition, which was
embedded in the social memory of Yucatecan peoples whose
testimonies entered the written record of the early Colonial
Period41. Our data indicate that institutional collapse occurred
in the environmental context of drought and conflict within
the city. Vulnerabilities of this coupled natural-social
system existed because of the strong reliance on rain-fed
maize agriculture, lack of centralized long-term grain storage,
minimal opportunities for irrigation, and a sociopolitical
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system led by elite families with competing political interests,
from different parts of the Yucatán Peninsula. We argue that
long-term, climate-caused hardships provoked restive tensions
that were fanned by political actors whose actions ultimately
culminated in political violence more than once at Mayapan.
Direct radiocarbon dates and mitochrondrial DNA sequences
from the remains of individuals in the city’s final mass
grave suggest they were family members of the heads of state
(the Cocoms), ironically and meaningfully laid to rest at the
base of the Temple of K’uk’ulkan, the iconic principal
temple and ritual center of Mayapan. Our results suggest that
rivalry among governing elites at Mayapan materialized into
action in the context of more frequent and/or severe droughts.
Comparatively, such climate challenges present a range of
opportunities for human actors, from the development of
innovative adaptations to the stoking of revolution5,18,76.
These climate hardships and ensuing food shortages would
have undermined the city’s economic base and enabled the
Xiu-led usurpation. The unifying and resilient institutions that
held the Mayapan state together until ~1450 CE were ultimately eroded, the confederation dissolved, and the city largely
abandoned.
As a counterpart to strong archeological, historical, and climatic evidence for civil conflict and institutional collapse at
Mayapan, we explored different pathways for resilience and
societal transformation to regional climate change8. Mobility was
an important component of social change as people dispersed
from Mayapan to other parts of the Yucatán Peninsula77. This
was a common indigenous response, observed historically during
drought periods when Maya people abandoned Spanish towns
and dispersed to settlements in the unsubdued frontier to the
south48,78,79. The social and political landscape of the Yucatán
Peninsula was also reorganized into a network of smaller states
that were politically independent, but economically interwoven.
Prosperous coastal towns, first observed by Spaniards,63 took
advantage of a variety of freshwater features69,70 and marine
resources that provided opportunities for subsistence and economic diversification. Maritime commerce thrived, with large
canoes carrying salt, chocolate and other commodities around the
peninsula80. At the time of European contact, the Yucatán
Peninsula was divided into 15 states63, some with developed
hierarchies and kings (halach winik) and others more loosely
organized; bureaucratic systems ranking nobles according to an
array of religious and political titles81. The conflict between states
occurred and each state had military leaders who could quickly
mobilize armies, but there is little historical evidence for civil
conflict within each state. Ironically, climatic impacts caused by
drought and related pestilences continued in northern Yucatán
with little respite in the century following Mayapan’s fall48. Yet
economic, social, and religious traditions persevered until the
onset of Spanish rule, despite the reduced scale of political units,
attesting to a resilient system of human-environmental
adaptations63.
Overall, we argue that human responses to drought on the
Yucatán Peninsula during the 15th century CE were complex. On
the one hand, drought stimulated civil conflict and institutional
failure at Mayapan. However, despite decentralization, intervals
of mobility, temporary impacts to trade, and political reorganization in the region, a resilient network of small Maya states
persisted and was encountered by Europeans in the early 16th
century63. These complexities are important as we attempt to
evaluate the potential success or failure of modern state institutions designed to maintain internal order and peace in the face of
future climate change. Recent regional climate records and
modeling results suggest drier conditions in Central America are
associated with global warming82,83. Food insecurity, social
ARTICLE
unrest, and drought-driven migration are already of considerable
concern in parts of Mexico and Central America. Our transdisciplinary work highlights the importance of understanding the
complex relationships between natural and social systems, especially when evaluating the role of climate change in exacerbating
internal political tensions and factionalism in areas where
drought leads to food insecurity.
Methods
The primary bioarchaeological data for this paper derives from lnstituto Nacional
de Antropología e Historia (INAH)-Yucatán’s projects in the excavation and
restoration of Mayapan’s monumental zone (directed by Carlos Peraza Lope).
Additional data originate from salvage archeological work conducted by Peraza
Lope for INAH along the Merida-Chetumal highway that crosses through the
Mayapan site, as well as National Science Foundation-supported collaborative
research in the settlement zone. Permits were issued by the INAH-Consejo de
Arqueología for excavation and the export of samples for analysis in the US
(C.A.401-36/2172, issue date: October 21, 2009; 401-3-10492/11554, AA-53-09 A/
3989, issue date: November 5, 2009; C.A.401-36/0028, issue date: January 19, 2010;
C.A.401-36/1223, issue date: July 13, 2010; 401-3-7328, AA-40-10 A/ 948, issue
date: August 10, 2010; 401-3-1016, AA-01-16, issue date: February 5, 2016). All
work was conducted with local Yucatecan archeologists, field crews, support staff,
and the community of Telchaquillo, located 1 km north of the archeological site of
Mayapan. All excavation, including the excavation of human remains, was done
with community permission and participation. All human remains that fall under
the auspices of the lnstituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia of Mexico
(Yucatan) are stored at a permanent repository located at the laboratory of the
Proyecto INAH Mayapán, Telchaquillo, Yucatán, Mexico. Samples associated with
the Carnegie Institution of Washington excavations are curated at the laboratory of
the Centro INAH Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
Radiocarbon dating. We report 211 AMS 14C dates from 205 sets of human
remains excavated at Mayapan (see Supplementary Data 2). Bone collagen for AMS
14C analysis was extracted and purified using the modified Longin method with
ultrafiltration84. Samples with low collagen yields were processed using amino acid
hydrolysis and XAD purification85. Physically cleaned samples were demineralized
and gelatinized. Crude gelatin yields were recorded and the gelatin was ultrafiltered, retaining >30 kDa molecular weight gelatin. Carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stable isotope ratios were measured at the Yale Earth Systems
Center for Stable Isotopic Studies facility with a Costech elemental analyzer (ECS
4010) and a Thermo DeltaPlus Advantage isotope ratio mass spectrometer,
respectively. Sample quality was evaluated by % crude gelatin yield, C%, N%, and
C:N ratio. Ultrafiltered gelatin (∼2.1 mg) was combusted for 3 h at 900 °C in
vacuum-sealed quartz tubes with CuO and Ag wire. Graphitization and AMS 14C
measurements were done at the Keck Carbon Cycle Accelerator Mass Spectrometer
facility and the Penn State University Accelerator Mass Spectrometer Laboratory.
The 14C ages were corrected for mass-dependent fractionation using measured
δ13C values and compared with backgrounds and known-age secondary standards.
All dates were calibrated in OxCal version 4.486 using the IntCal20 curve87.
Summed probability distributions. To estimate population centralization at
Mayapan, we used the rcarbon package88 in the R environment to generate
summed probability distributions (SPDs) on calibrated radiocarbon dates from our
sample of 205 dated human skeletal remains. We then compared our SPDs to a
Monte-Carlo simulation of a null exponential growth model (see Supplementary
Note 4) to identify general population centralization trends as well as periods of
time when our SPD significantly deviated from the expected null values89. Higheror lower-than-expected density of observed SPDs for a particular year indicates a
local divergence of the observed SPD from the fitted exponential growth null
model, and the significance of these deviations can be used to assess the goodnessof-fit using a global test.
Generalized linear model-centralization. We fit generalized linear models
(GLMs) with a binomial distribution and log link appropriate to proportional data
and quasi-likelihood estimation to account for overdispersion. To generate the
GLM comparing the Mayapan SPD (response variable) to the YOK-I δ18O and
Tzabnah δ18O data (predictor variables), we derived summed probability values
and paired them with δ18O values for every year both data were available. To pair
SPD values with internal conflict data, we averaged values for the 2σ 14C probability distribution for each individual. For example, if an individual had a 2σ 14C
range of AD 1100–1175, all SPD values from that temporal range were averaged.
The resulting GLM was generated in the R programming environment.
Generalized linear model-conflict. A GLM with a binomial distribution and log
link appropriate to proportional data and quasi-likelihood estimation to account
for overdispersion was estimated to compare precipitation with individual deaths
from civil conflict. To do this we averaged the YOK-I and Tzabnah δ18O values for
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the 2σ 14C probability distribution for each individual. The resulting dataset
contains a sub-sample of 183 individuals, each with a death from civil conflict and
YOK-I and Tzabnah δ18O designation, which was uploaded into the R programming environment to generate the GLMs.
Reporting summary. Further information on research design is available in the Nature
Research Reporting Summary linked to this article.
Data availability
All source data generated in this study are provided in the Supplementary Information/
Source Data file. Osteological/Bioarchaeological data was generated at the University of New
South Wales, Australia (Stanley Serafin; s.serafin@unsw.edu.au). All human remains that fall
under the auspices of the lnstituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia of Mexico (Yucatán)
are stored at a permanent repository located at the laboratory of the Proyecto INAH
Mayapan, Telchaquillo, Yucatán, Mexico. Samples associated with the Carnegie excavations
are stored at the laboratory of the Centro INAH Yucatán, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. All
sample requests should be made to INAH (Carlos Peraza; cperaza_yuc@hotmail.com). AMS
radiocarbon data was produced at the Pennsylvania State University Accelerator Mass
Spectrometry Facility (current contact is Brendan Culleton; bjc23@psu.edu). The
speleothem and associated data were generated at Cambridge University (David Hodell;
dah73@cam.ac.uk). Source data are provided with this paper.
Code availability
All R code generated for the SPD and statistical analyses and OxCal code used for
chronological modeling are available as Supplementary Data files.
Received: 18 October 2021; Accepted: 21 June 2022;
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Acknowledgements
Much of the data for this paper derives from Instituto Nacional de Antropología e
Historia (INAH)-Yucatán’s investments in the excavation and restoration of Mayapan’s
monumental zone (directed by Carlos Peraza Lope). Additional data originate from
salvage archeological work conducted by Peraza Lope along the Merida-Chetumal
highway that crosses through the Mayapan site, as well as National Science Foundationsupported collaborative research in the settlement zone (NSF BCS#s 1406233, 0742128,
0109426, 1144511, and M.M.) and the National Geographic Society (NGS 8598-08). We
thank the INAH-Consejo de Arqueología for granting permits for excavation and the
export of samples for analysis in the US. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of
local Yucatecan archeologists, field crews, support staff, and the community of Telchaquillo, located 1 km north of the archeological site of Mayapan, without whose support
this research would not have been possible. In particular, we thank Pedro Delgado Kú,
Bárbara Escamilla Ojeda, Wilberth Cruz Alvarado, Luis Flores Cobá, Fernando Flores,
Fernando Mena and Pancho Uc. Osteological research was financially supported by
grants from Central Queensland University (S.S.; New Staff Research Grant), Middle
American Research Institute of Tulane University (S.S.), and Sigma Xi (S.S.). Interdisciplinary research supported by the NSF (BCS-0940744, D.J.K) and general lab support for radiocarbon work supported by the NSF Archaeometry program (BCS-1460369,
D.J.K. & B.J.K.), The Pennsylvania State University (PSU; D.J.K.), and the University of
California, Santa Barbara D.J.K). We are grateful to Laurie Eccles, Claire Ebert, Martin
Welker, Brad Erkkila, and the interns and staff at the Human Paleoecology and Isotope
Geochemistry Lab at PSU. We thank the Instituto Nacional de Antropología e Historia
for granting us permission to access Cenote Ch’en Mul at Mayapan and collect a stalagmite (M1) for paleoclimate analysis. The speleothem was collected with support from
National Geographic Society Grant 5917-97 to D.A.H. and M.B. and analyzed with
support from the Leverhulme Trust - Research Project Grant 2019-228 to D.A.H.
Author contributions
D.J.K., M.M., S.S., S.F.M.B., and D.A.H. designed the study. M.M., C.P.L., B.W.R., E.U.G.,
and E.H.P. collected archeological samples. S.S. performed the osteological analysis.
D.A.H., M.B., S.M., and J.H.C. collected the Mayapan speleothem and participated in
other sample collections. D.J.K., B.J.C., R.J.G., J.A.H., and T.K.H. directly radiocarbondated the skeletal material and established the chronology. W.C.M. generated SPD for
radiocarbon dates and conducted the generalized linear modeling. D.A.H., S.F.M.B.,
K.M.P., T.C.S., N.M., M.Z., Y.A., V.J.P., V.V.A., S.A.C., D.H.J., A.J.M., G.H., M.B., and
J.U.L.B. generated or analyzed the climate data. D.J.K. and D.A.H. supervised the study.
D.J.K, M.M., S.S., S.F.M.B, W.C.M., and D.A.H. wrote the paper with contributions from
all authors.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
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Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material
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Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Douglas J. Kennett or
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