Subido por Tatu Valli

Lecture3 presentation3OctNOvideo

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Lucia
Chrometzka
Business Design,
Trend Forecasting and
Strategic Innovation,
Milan
T R E N DS
FOR
FUTUR E V I S I O N
D E C I P H E R
CHANGE
Values | Global & Local
15 YEARS
MacroFraming
10 YEARS
MicroFraming | ConsumAuthors
5 YEARS
Coolhunting & Cultsearching
PRESENT
Design Thinking
FUTURE
GLOBAL
PHENOMENA
I N T E R P R E T A T I ON
D E C I P H E R
CHANGE
Values | Global & Local
15 YEARS
MacroFraming
10 YEARS
MicroFraming | ConsumAuthors
5 YEARS
Coolhunting & Cultsearching
PRESENT
Design Thinking
FUTURE
GLOBAL
PARADIGMS
Quick & Deep
Crucial & Sustainable
Unique & Universal
Trust & Sharing
Life quality and happiness
Timeliness and wellbeing
Occasions and desires
Rhythm and cycle
Respect and ethics
Systems Improvement
Know how and expertise
Roots and genius loci
Cultural Growth
Building Trust
Sharing of Passions
Social Innovation
LOCAL
PHENOMENA
I N T E R P R E T A T I ON
D E C I P H E R
CHANGE
Values | Global & Local
15 YEARS
MacroFraming
10 YEARS
MicroFraming | ConsumAuthors
5 YEARS
Coolhunting & Cultsearching
PRESENT
Design Thinking
FUTURE
LOCAL
PHENOMENA
I N T E R P R E T A T I ON
F OCUS S O C I O - C U L T U R A L S I G N A L S
Why Global Values
Be in fine tuning with people’s values
and understand what’s meaningful for them
Why Local Cultures
Take into consideration cultural differences
and measure market compatibility of projects
Why Macrotrends
Familiarise with themes of universal relevance
that represent society’s big changes
Why Microtrends
Decipher emerging sensibilities
in various sectors, even if of a niche relevance
Why Coolhunting
Stimulate imagination with fragments of truth, in
urban and domestic contexts
Why Cultsearching
Observe material culture, in online and offline
contexts, enriching interpretation of findings
Why Design Thinking
Work on hypothesis that reflect society
in order to generate projects for the future
INTER–DISCIPLINARY APPROACH
Collective Imaginary
Monitoring transversal global values
through sociological imagination
Cultural Scanning
Identifying distinctive local characteristics
through material culture investigation
MacroFraming
Understanding the evolution of market sectors
(design, food, wellness…) through market
investigation
MicroFraming
Focusing on the impact of material culture through
creative interpretation
Coolhunting
Observation of people and places based on the
Coolhunting technique
Cultsearching
Scouting of projects, ideas, expressions, opinions
based on interdisciplinary research techniques
Developing new concepts and scenarios based on the
interrelation between People, Places, Plans and Projects
and their creative interpretation
Design Thinking
P R E P A R A T O R Y
Why Fieldwork and on the spot observation?
Students during this phase rely on intuition, professional
experience, academic and cultural background, and natural
curiosity.
•
§
§
You observe people (styles, habits…)
You observe places (neighbourhoods, shops…)
You identify “top” findings of your overall research
Students during Coolhunting
§
Gathered and recorded information about people and
places, through photos and visuals, giving evidence of
people’s daily life actions and reality
PHASE
I N T U I T I O N
PRIORITIES
PEOPLE
PLANS
PLACES
PROJECTS
I N T U I T I O N
PRIORITIES
PEOPLE
Who
styles and behaviours
PLANS
PLACES
How
trends and phenomena
Where
private and public contexts
PROJECTS
What
initiatives, venues, products
I N T U I T I O N
PRIORITIES
PEOPLE
Who
not only about people’s looks
but also about meaning
PLANS
PLACES
How
not only about what’s visible but also
about what you perceive
Where
it’s not only about the context but also
cultural character
PROJECTS
What
not only evidence of material culture but also innovation
GLOBAL
PHENOMENA
I N T E R P R E T A T I ON
D E C I P H E R
CHANGE
Values | Global & Local
15 YEARS
MacroFraming
10 YEARS
MicroFraming | ConsumAuthors
5 YEARS
Coolhunting & Cultsearching
PRESENT
Design Thinking
FUTURE
F OCUS S O C I O - C U L T U R A L S I G N A L S
Why Global Values
Be in fine tuning with people’s values
and understand what’s meaningful for them
Why Local Cultures
Take into consideration cultural differences
and measure market compatibility of projects
Why Macrotrends
Familiarise with themes of universal relevance
that represent society’s big changes
Why Microtrends
Decipher emerging sensibilities
in various sectors, even if of a niche relevance
Why Coolhunting
Stimulate imagination with fragments of truth, in
urban and domestic contexts
Why Cultsearching
Observe material culture, in online and offline
contexts, enriching interpretation of findings
Why Design Thinking
Work on hypothesis that reflect society
in order to generate projects for the future
INTER–DISCIPLINARY APPROACH
Collective Imaginary
Monitoring transversal global values
through sociological imagination
Cultural Scanning
Identifying distinctive local characteristics
through material culture investigation
MacroFraming
Understanding the evolution of market sectors
(design, food, wellness…) through market
investigation
MicroFraming
Focusing on the impact of material culture through
creative interpretation
Coolhunting
Observation of people and places based on the
Coolhunting technique
Cultsearching
Scouting of projects, ideas, expressions, opinions
based on interdisciplinary research techniques
Developing new concepts and scenarios based on the
interrelation between People, Places, Plans and Projects
and their creative interpretation
Design Thinking
DES K ANALY S I S
MACROFRAMING
Designers and Managers should tackle
themes of universal relevance
that represent society’s big changes.
Secondary
Research
Understanding the evolution of market
sectors (design, food, wellness…) through
market investigation.
DES K ANALY S I S
MACROFRAMING
Macrotrends, are those sociocultural
phenomena that tackle themes of universal
relevance that represent society’s big
changes, often a sum-up of microtrends that
grew relevant in time.
Material culture expressions in different
market sectors that gained universal
recognition in different countries, can convey
the rise of strong sensibilities that are highly
visible, even if uncommon for many.
Trend Forecasting & Strategic Innovation course student materials
DES K ANALY S I S
MACROFRAMING
Macrotrends, or long term trends, embody
strong insights that are already present in the
market.
Since Macrotrends evolve, MacroFraming is
useful for tracing their evolution and their
different expressions in the different market
sectors.
Becoming aware of the more stable trends in
relation to those less visible allows us to
anticipate the market changes in different
sectors.
Trend Forecasting & Strategic Innovation course student materials
DES K ANALY S I S
MACROFRAMING
§Collect information regarding specific market sectors,
such as retail, design, wellness, food, from websites up
to published reports.
Suggestions
§Monitor constantly relevant publications, specialized
magazines and market reports in relation to the
different market sectors.
§Identify a number of key case studies, successful or
not.
§Organize your materials and give interpretation of the
impact between observed consumer behaviours and
market dynamics.
DES K ANALY S I S
MACROFRAMING
§ Future Shock, Alvin Toffler in 70’s
§ The Third Wave (1980) and Megatrends (1986), John
Naisbitt approaches the analysis of the contents of
the media.
§ The Popcorn Report by Faith Popcorn in the 90’s.
Books
§ FCL books on MacroFraming:
European Asymmetries
Body Visions
Living Trends
DES K ANALY S I S
MICROFRAMING
Designers and Managers should deal with
emerging sensibilities in various sectors,
even if of a niche relevance.
Secondary
Research
Focusing on the impact of
material culture through creative
interpretation.
DES K ANALY S I S
MICROFRAMING
The media (newspapers, magazines, blogs)
present eye-catching information and
interesting facts on a daily basis.
Nevertheless, the impact and analysis of this
data is a difficult task for the untrained mind
and eyes.
Microtrends, niche phenomena regarding
consumer behaviours, attitudes, styles and
expressions, are growing at speed around us
and are the tangible expression of
macrotrends.
Trend Forecasting & Strategic Innovation course student materials
DES K ANALY S I S
MICROFRAMING
Microtrends may often inspire and stimulate
new ideas, but can be misleading without a
constant and 360ー degrees observation of
the local and global realities.
MicroFraming is decisive for those who
would like to become more aware about the
details, aesthetic or behavioural, that
surround us and to understand the
relationship between the small-scale
expressions of change and their influence
(weak or strong) in the global market.
Trend Forecasting & Strategic Innovation course student materials
DES K ANALY S I S
MICROFRAMING
§Collect secondary data regarding peoples’ life,
through newspapers, magazines, blogs, but also
Delphi Interviews and questionnaires.
Suggestions
§Gather information about emerging phenomena in
different contexts of daily life, such as work, leisure
time, shopping etc.
§Take notes on a diary for a specific period (a week, a
month…).
§Select the most important findings emerging from
your constant desk analysis during that period.
DES K ANALY S I S
MICROFRAMING
§ Bernard Cova books on the economy of the
unexpected and as non conventional marketing in the
90’s
§ Microtrends by Mark Penn
§ Anatomy of a trend by Henrik Vejlgaar
Books
§ FCL books on MicroFraming:
Real Fashion Trends
ConsumAuthors
GLOBAL
Observe
based on research
hypothesis
Analyse
Paradigms & Directions
of market sector
LOCAL
People,
Occasions,
Private & Public contexts
based on in-house
programs and expertise
MacroTrends, MicroTrends & Consumer Behaviours
Interpret
Insights for specific
sector
based on brand values
and design thinking
Scenarios on product,
communication and
distribution
D E C I P H E R
CHANGE
Values | Global & Local
15 YEARS
MacroFraming
10 YEARS
MicroFraming | ConsumAuthors
5 YEARS
Coolhunting & Cultsearching
PRESENT
Design Thinking
FUTURE
P R E P A R A T O R Y
MACROFRAMING
How to familiarise with themes of universal relevance that
represent society’s big changes
Based on your local observations, choose an ideal business
sector: Fashion and Accessories, Catering, Entertainment, Beauty
and Wellness…
Understand the evolution of market sectors (design, food,
wellness…) through market investigation
IDENTIFY A SET OF VALUES
Identify and describe a set of significant priorities and directions
(macrotrends) related the specific sector
PHASE
P R E P A R A T O R Y
MICROFRAMING
How to decipher emerging sensibilities in the specific sector, even
if of a niche relevance
Reason on different brands and success cases in the specific
sector that have deeply influenced people’s habits and attitudes
Focus on the impact of material culture through creative
interpretation
IDENTIFY A SET OF LIFE OCCASIONS
Identify and describe a set of significant daily occasions and life
contexts (microtrends) related the specific sector
PHASE
P R E P A R A T O R Y
Drivers of Change
Industry Actions
Paradigms
&
Society Reactions
MacroTrends, MicroTrends
Insights
Specific sectors and life occasions
PHASE
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