Environmental geostatistics of heavy metals in fine active sediments of the Western Antioquia subregion Luis Hernán Sánchez Arredondo a, Jheyson Andres Bedoya Londoño b & Sergio Alejandro Garavito Higuera b a Department of Materials and Minerals, Faculty of Mines, National University of Colombia, Medellín, Colombia, lhsanche@unal.edu.co b Curricular Area of Mineral Resources, National University of Colombia, Medellín, Colombia, jabedoyal@unal.edu.co b Curricular Area of Mineral Resources, National University of Colombia, Medellín, Colombia, sagaravitoh@unal.edu.co Corresponding author: Luis Hernán Sánchez Arredondo, lhsanche@unal.edu.co ABSTRACT The Western Antioquia subregion is characterized by having a low concentration of rural land ownership and a high process of ecological destruction and desertification in the municipalities of Santa Fe de Antioquia, San Jeronimo, Anza, and Sopetran. Tropical dry forest biome, secondary vegetation and growing forests, sub-Andean forest, Andean forest, wetlands and associated forests, paramos, and basal forest predominate. One of the most transcendental environmental problems has been the transformation of natural ecosystems that have become mainly agroecosystems and due to population growth, due to the development of new projects among other anthropic activities. In the subregion, the main global greenhouse effect (GHG) emissions are from deforestation, livestock, agriculture, energy consumption, and sanitation. Climate risk of the subregion is medium to low. Through geostatistical techniques of simulation conditioned by turning bands (TB), different scenarios were assessed for the analysis of environmental contamination of metals cobalt (Co), chrome (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) in an area of 7,291 km2, equivalent to the subregion of west from department of Antioquia. Geostatistical cartography prepared for the pessimistic case of each of the metals analyzed, report anomalous values above the standards established for the different types of rocks in the region, which would generate a moderate relative mobility for water contamination, being subjected to surface weathering processes under oxidation conditions in acidic environments. Under reducing conditions, the simulated elements would have a behavior of relative immobility and would offer environmental danger for the soils of the region. Potentially dangerous anomalous values were estimated for Co ≥ 130 mg/kg, Cr ≥ 2,507 mg/kg, Ni ≥ 138 mg/kg, and Pb 165 ≥ mg/kg, which are consistent with volcano-sedimentary sequences and acid to intermediate plutonism present in the subregion. Analysis of the samples were carried out by optical emission spectrography, which although it is a semi-quantitative method, has made it possible to formulate the state of the art of environmental geochemistry and identification of possible vulnerable areas in order to focus future studies, with greater precision and detail. Regarding mining activity, 20% of the area of the subregion is concessioned for extraction of minerals and 34% is requested as mining concession contracts, whose activities of exploration and exploitation of georesources are concentrated mainly in Au and precious metals. Mine with the highest production is of the gold type and is in in the municipality of Buritica, which intends to extract 9.1 tons of gold each year; however, medium and small-scale mining represents 93% of mining titles and applications in the area of influence. If the high concentrations of Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb in some soils of the subregion of the west of Antioquia are validated, their use should be technically oriented to economic activities in the mining sector, instead of agriculture and livestock, due to the negative impacts of heavy metals on human health. 1 KEYWORDS: Colombia, environmental geostatistics, heavy metals. HIGHLIGHTS - An exploratory analysis was made for the heavy metals Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb. 100 conditioned simulations of 400 turning bands were elaborated. The automatic cartography of the pessimistic case was expounded. Potentially dangerous anomalous values were estimated. INTRODUCTION metamorphic igneous rocks predominate; with diorites, neises, and amphibolites. The Calima Terrain is made up of a sequence of volcanic and sedimentary rocks that make up most of the outcrops. These are underwater volcanic rocks with intercalations of claystones, grawacas, and lidites that would reach an approximate thickness of 900 m. Several authors have reported fossils within the cherts of the sedimentary sequence. The area has been subjected to various tectonic phases with compression, extensional horizontal movements and especially large displacements due to dextral-inverse transpression. The Cuna Terrain is made up of three important structural elements: the Mandé magmatic arc, the basin of the Atrato and San Juan rivers, and the Serranía de Baudó. The Santa Cecilia Unit outcrops to the east of the Mandé Batholith, between Antioquia and Chocó, as a continuous belt with a northwest orientation, variable amplitude between 2 and 7 km, in faulted contact with sedimentites and vulcanites of the Cañasgordas Group and to the south is limited by the Batholith of Mandé. Lithologically it is a heterogeneous unit made up of basic lava flows, breccias, agglomerates, tuffs with local levels of pillow lavas and intercalations of siltstones, calcareous mudstones, chert, and limestone. The flows are basaltic in composition, solid, vesicular or porphyritic, with a dense paste, greenish-black in color when altered. The breccias and agglomerates are solids made up of basalt fragments, tuffs and abundant cavities filled with chlorite. The tuffs are solid, greenish gray in color and generally show good Current active sediments (CAS) are the main source of polluting heavy metals in the world and their excess is harmful to ecosystems due to their high toxicity and susceptibility to microbial degradation, when they enter water bodies and the atmosphere. Heavy metals studied from the point of view of environmental pollution are important because they are good indicators of regional pollution (Wang, Lin, & Liu, 2022). The Western Antioquia subregion drains its waters into two large basins: the Cauca River basin and the Atrato River basin; in the first, the rivers of the western flank of the central mountain range and the drainages of the eastern flank of the western mountain range converge, in both cases the ravines form deep and narrow "V" valleys. In the first we have the municipalities of Peque, Sabanalarga, Liborina, Buriticá, Olaya, Santafé de Antioquia, Sopetrán, San Jerónimo, Ebéjico, Anzá, Heliconia, and Armenia; while Dabeiba, Giraldo, Cañasgordas, Uramita, Abriaquí, and Frontino drain their waters to the Atrato River basin. In the study area (Figure 1), the three types of rock with different ages outcrop: sedimentary, igneous, both volcanic and intrusive, and metamorphic (Servicio Geológico Colombiano, 2015). The subregion is crossed by three geological terranes: the Cauca Romeral Terrain (Servicio Geológico Colombiano, 2019a), the Calima Terrain, and the Cuna Terrain (Servicio Geológico Colombiano, 2019b). In the former, 2 stratification; they are intercalated in the basaltic flows and the crystallolites predominate and occasionally, tuffs of vitrocrystalline crystals. Both in the tuffs and in the basaltic flows with which they are associated, there are vesicles filled with zeolites, chlorite and calcite, pumpellyite and chlorite, prehnite, and epidote. The pyroclastic sequence is interbedded with lenses of sedimentary rocks such as chert, siltstones, arenites, and epiclastites; locally there are calcareous strata of biosparites with abundant microfauna and terrigenous contribution represented by quartz clasts, feldspars, and lithic basalts. The name of La Equis is used to designate the unit of this complex located to the west of the Batholith of Mandé, which constitutes an elongated north-south strip with an average width of 6 km. Figure 1. Geological map of the subregion Western Antioquia (Servicio Geológico Colombiano, 2015). 3 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS turning bands method that allows the construction of simulations in space from simulations in lines. Therefore, one-line simulation methods are of great interest even if the ultimate goal is to simulate in 2D or 3D. The general principle of the method applied to regionalized variables is due to Matheron (Chilés & Delfiner, 1999). With the turning bands method, 100 conditioned simulations in 400 bands were elaborated. The field data of CAS are part of the regional geochemical sampling scale 1:100,000 of plates 114, 115, 129, 130 and 146 provided to the Geochemical Map of Antioquia project of the Faculty of Mines of the National University of Colombia, by Ingeominas (current Colombian Geological Service). In total, 2,652 Co, 2,670 Cr, 2,389 Ni, and 1,045 Pb specimens were processed. The analysis of samples was carried out by optical emission spectrography (semiqualitative) which is recommended in the regional sampling stage (Sánchez Arredondo & Molina Escobar, 2009). 2.1 Mathematical Formulation The simulation by turning bands is based on the simultaneous generation of a series of lines in space. If P is a 2D or 3D region where it is required to generate simulations at a series of points along a grid in an x-y coordinate system, a series of lines i whose azimuth θi is a random variable uniformly distributed between 0 and 2π. Along each line i, a realization of a onedimensional random function with zero mean and covariance C1 (hi) is generated, where hi is the coordinate along line i. If N is the point in the region P where it is desired to simulate Z(x), N is projected onto each of the lines and assigned the value Zi (hNi) corresponding to the contribution of line i, where hNi is the projection of N on line i (Figure 2). Let be ui the unit vector along direction i whereby hNi = XN.ui where (.) denotes dot product. Finally, if L is the total number of lines, the simulated value at point N is given by: Geostatistical methods are in strong demand across all fields of earth sciences, as powerful tools to predict spatial attributes and simulate forecast uncertainty at unsampled locations, important as automated mapping to identify potentially hazardous areas of greatest attention to control and monitoring. According to Chilés & Delfiner (1999), conditional simulations are useful to obtain realistic images of spatial variability. Quantitatively, they are the tool of choice for evaluating the impact of spatial uncertainty on the results of complex procedures, such as numerical modeling of a dynamical system or economic optimization of natural resource development. Conditional simulations fall into the scope of socalled Monte Carlo methods; in fact, they are nothing more than Monte Carlo simulations. The objective pursued here is not to reproduce the genetic mechanisms that generated the observed phenomenon. It is simply to mimic its spatial variations as realistically as possible. By modeling a stationary field over an area much larger than the range of influence in the variogram, a single simulation can give insight into a variety of possible local situations. This is usually sufficient, for example, to evaluate the performance of a mining scenario, which depends mainly on the local variability of the ore grades or thicknesses. 1 ZS (XN) = 𝐿 ∑𝐿1 𝑍𝑖 (𝑥𝑁 . 𝑢𝑖 ) For the two-dimensional case, the form that C1 must have so that Zs has the covariance C(h) is: ℎ 𝐶1 (𝑡) (π /2) C (h) =∫0 √ℎ 2 −𝑡 2 The elaborated procedure was the following: 1) transformation of original data to Gaussians (Anamorphosis), 2) variographic analysis of the transformed data, 3) simulation conditioned by turning bands, 4) post-process simulation (reverse transformation to the process carried out in 1), and 5) automatic mapping and interpretation of the results (see Figure 3). Some covariance models can be simulated directly on Rn. But it is often easier to use the 4 3. RESULTS 3.1 Variography The elements cobalt, chromium, nickel, and lead were selected for the elaboration of experimental and theoretical semivariograms (dotted in black and solid line in red respectively, Figure 4), which showed a marked nugget effect; between 32% and 42% of the statistical variance, which may be due to the lithological heterogeneity of the samples and the different genetic environments of the metals analyzed. Exponential type models predominate for Co, Cr and Pb, while Ni was better coupled to spherical type models. The continuity expressed through the influence range is in the 20,000-34,000 m interval, with two nested structures standing out; spherical type for nickel and exponential type for lead (Table 1). The statistical variance underestimates (horizontal dashed line in the semivariograms) the dispersion of the data, real variance (sill) for cobalt since it is above, indicating that this is the most dispersed element in the sediments of the West Antioquia subregion, while for the other elements it is overestimated. Figure 2. The principle of turning bands in 2D (Chilés & Delfiner, 1999). 3.2 Cross-validation Because one of the applications of the semivariogram is the spatial estimation of a regionalized variable, cross-validation is used to evaluate estimation errors and has been widely used to evaluate the degree of goodness of a semivariogram model. For Zi real points, Zi* estimated data are obtained by ordinary point kriging. The results obtained are shown graphically in Figure 4, a diagram whose correlation coefficient (rho) between Zi against Zi*, which in our case for nickel is 82%. A histogram of the errors relative to the estimated standard deviation and a scatter plot of the estimated Zi* against the relative errors, with rho very close to zero. Figure 3. Flowchart of the various stages of construction of a simulation matching the histogram, the variograma and the data (Chilés & Delfiner, 1999). 5 Figure 4. Experimental (dashed black lines) and theoretical (red lines) semivariograms of the elements Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb. Table 1. Geostatistical parameters of the theoretical variograms. Element Co Cr Ni Pb Nugget effect 0.39 0.42 0.32 0.36 Range Sill Range Sill Model 2 (m) (mg/kg)2 (m) (mg/kg)2 Exponential 24,258 0.72 Exponential 20,186 0.51 Spherical 4,655 0.17 Spherical 22,591 0.46 Exponential 33,595 0.08 Exponential 20,588 0.28 Model 1 6 Figure 5. Cross-validation analysis for the Ni case study in the West Antioquia subregion. With 2,377 estimated data for nickel, a rejection of 94 points was obtained, which is equivalent to 4% of the estimated Zi*. Table 2 reports the results obtained from the cross-validation for the elements cobalt, chromium, nickel, and lead. Table 2. Cross-validation parameters. Cross-Validation (Z*-Z)/S* Element rho Mean Std. Dev. Rejection 2% Co 0.722 -0.004 0.987 3% Cr 0.745 0.007 1.082 4% Ni 0.817 0.128 1.073 3% Pb 0.786 -0.007 0.981 3.3 Simulation conditioned by turning bands 100 conditioned simulations of 400 turning bands were elaborated, with the objective of estimating blocks of 500 m * 500 m. On Table 3, the average of 100 simulations, the pessimistic case (largest realization) and the optimistic case (smallest realization) are reported for each element. The maps in Figure 6 show the automatic mapping for the pessimistic case of each of the elements under study. These have been elaborated 7 on a scale of 7 colors corresponding to the minimum value, quantiles 5, 25, 50, 75, 90, 98 and the maximum value. Potentially dangerous anomalous concentrations were considered for values ≥ the 90th quantile, corresponding to Co ≥ 130 mg/kg, Cr ≥ 2,507 mg/kg, Ni ≥ 138 mg/kg, and Pb ≥ 165 mg/kg, which could be sources of contribution of the volcano-sedimentary sequences and the acidic to intermediate plutonism genetically related to the subregion. These results would generate a moderate relative mobility for water contamination, when subjected to surface weathering processes under oxidation conditions in acidic environments. Under reducing conditions, the simulated elements would have a behavior of relative immobility and would offer environmental danger to the soils of the region. Table 3. Results obtained by 100 turning band simulations for the elements Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb. Variable Co average 100 Simu TB Co optimistic 100 Simu TB Co pessimistic 100 Simu TB Cr average 100 Simu TB Cr optimistic 100 Simu TB Cr pessimistic 100 Simu TB Ni average 100 Simu TB Ni optimistic 100 Simu TB Ni pessimistic 100 Simu TB Pb average 100 Simu TB Pb optimistic 100 Simu TB Pb pessimistic 100 Simu TB Count Minimum Maximum 30,390 5.39 140.60 30,390 3.00 76.55 30,390 8.49 477.99 30,390 7.94 3,732.40 30,390 5.00 1,776.62 30,390 13.45 6,782.57 29,693 4.32 107.57 29,693 3.00 58.55 29,693 5.88 500.00 30,328 5.01 204.55 30,328 5.00 21.86 30,328 5.12 1,000.00 8 Median 30.22 13.26 75.25 278.82 65.69 1,121.03 32.56 13.04 78.92 17.70 17.70 84.49 Figure 6. Automatic mapping of the pessimistic case for the elements Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb. 9 CONCLUSIONS normal to find 150 mg/kg of Ni (diabases and basalts very common in the subregion) and in ultrabasic rocks 2,000 mg/kg. The median of 100 simulations showed a value of 32 mg/kg of Ni, which is somewhat reassuring when compared to the normal content of average crustal rocks. According to the pessimistic cartography of this element in the Western Antioquia subregion, the highest values are located in the municipalities of Frontino, Dabeiba, Caicedo, and Anzá, with some small foci in Peque, Sabanalarga, and Liborina, where there are areas that exceed 138 mg/kg of Ni. The similarity in the spatial distribution of nickel and cobalt is clear (Figure 6), that is, the areas with high cobalt values are the same ones where we find nickel anomalies. Essential for some organisms. Ni (2+) compounds are relatively non-toxic. Some other compounds are extremely toxic and/or carcinogenic. The environmental trajectory of Ni is medium under oxidizing conditions, high under acidic conditions, very low under neutral to alkaline and reducing conditions. Ni deficiencies can retard growth in animals. At high levels in the soil, they can result in plant growth disorders (chlorosis and plant death). Phosphate fertilizers can increase Ni availability. Limestone and potash fertilizers reduce Ni availability. Most Ni compounds are relatively soluble at pH < 6.5, but insoluble at pH > 6.7. More than 70 Ni-accumulating plants are known. Other plants do not absorb Ni such as corn, potatoes, carrots, and spinach. Drinking water should not contain more than 0.1 mg/l Ni. A soil with more than 210 mg/kg of Ni must be remediated. Co is a central atom in vitamin B12, toxic to humans at doses ≥ 25 mg/day and in water at doses > 2 mg/l. The median of 100 simulations developed in this study is 30 mg/kg, a value that is considered higher than the average content of the rocks of the earth's crust estimated at 25 mg/kg. Basic and ultrabasic rocks predominate in the Western Antioquia subregion, in which it is normal to find values between 50-150 mg/kg of Co respectively. From the environmental point of view (pessimistic case, Figure 6), 10% of the estimated area contains cobalt values ≥ 130 mg/kg and are essentially located in the municipalities of Frontino, Dabeiba, Buriticá, Peque, and Sabanalarga. In Frontino it has been referenced as a source of Co la Cabaltina, which was observed in association with gold and molybdenite in the Cerro Plateado (Molina, Molina, & Ortiz, 1990). It is known that some Cr (6+) compounds are carcinogenic and their average abundance in the earth's crust is 100 mg/kg, but in basic rocks it is normal to find Cr contents of up to 200 mg/kg, while in ultrabasic of 2,000 mg/kg. The median of 100 simulations gives us a value of 279 mg/kg, while in a pessimistic case 10% of the simulation values reported values ≥ 2,507 mg/kg (Figure 6). Although the mobility of chromium is very low under all conditions, its environmental trajectory due to geogenic dust resulting from weathering can be very dangerous. The US EPA suggests that drinking water in excess of action levels can lead to short-term skin irritation or ulceration, and long-term damage to circulatory and nerve tissue and skin irritation. Drinking water should not contain more than 0.05 mg/l of Cr and the maximum tolerance of a soil intended for agriculture should not be higher than 100 mg/kg. The normal contents of lead in the rocks of the earth's crust are estimated at 12 mg/kg, its highest value is found in granitic rocks, where it is normal to observe 20 mg/kg. The median for 100 simulations in the Western Antioquia subregion was estimated at 18 mg/kg and is surely related to materials associated with the granitic facies of the Sabanalarga Batholith in the municipalities of The average abundance of Ni in the rocks of the earth's crust is 75 mg/kg, but in basic rocks it is 10 DECLARATION INTEREST Peque and Sabanalarga. The map in Figure 6 shows the pessimistic case, where 10% of the estimated values exceed 165 mg/kg of Pb, but 5% are above 767 mg/kg. Lead is a particularly dangerous chemical element, and it can accumulate in individual organisms, but also enter food chains. Its mobility in the environment is low, in oxidizing, acid and neutral to alkaline conditions, and very low, under reducing conditions. The main mineral in the area that may contain Pb is Galena (PbS). OF COMPETING The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To the Faculty of Mines of the National University of Colombia, for their support in the preparation of this manuscript. Through this article, the authors wish to pay a posthumous tribute to Professor of Mineral Deposits Franklin Ortíz Bejarano, who unfortunately died on June 7, 2021, a victim of COVID-19 and who was for more than 30 years professor and guide of many generations of graduates of the Faculty of Mining. If the high concentrations of Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb are validated in some soils of the Western Antioquia subregion, their use should be technically oriented to economic activities in the mining sector, instead of agriculture, due to the negative impacts of heavy metals on human health (Londoño Franco, Londoño Muñoz, & Muñoz Garcia, 2016). REFERENCES 20% of the area of the subregion is under concession for the extraction of minerals and 34% is requested as mining concession contracts, whose activities of exploration and exploitation of georesources are mainly concentrated in gold and precious metals. 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