Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39 Environmental Emergency Management Environmental Environmental Emergency Emergency Management Management Environmental Emergency Management Emergency Management Environmental Environmental Emergency Management Kononov D.A. Kononov D.A. Kononov Kononov D.A. D.A. Kononov D.A. Kononov D.A. Russian State University for the Humanities Russian State University for the Humanities Russian State State University University for for the the Humanities Humanities Russian Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences Russian State University for the Humanities Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences Sciences Russian State University for the117806, Humanities Institute ofProfsoyuznaya Control Sciences ofMoscow, Russian Academy of 65, str., Russia Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia 65,ofProfsoyuznaya Profsoyuznaya str.,ofMoscow, Moscow, 117806, Russia Institute Control Sciences Russian Academy of Sciences 65, str., 117806, Russia phone: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia phone: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59 phone: (7-095) 334-90-09 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) (7-095) 334-89-59 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia phone: (7-095) fax: 334-89-59 E-mail: dmitrykon52@gmail.com phone: (7-095) fax: (7-095) 334-89-59 E-mail: dmitrykon52@gmail.com E-mail:334-90-09 dmitrykon52@gmail.com phone: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59 E-mail: dmitrykon52@gmail.com E-mail: dmitrykon52@gmail.com E-mail: dmitrykon52@gmail.com Abstract: the results of a study of the possibility of managing environmental emergencies are reviewed. Abstract: the of of of managing environmental emergencies are Abstract: the results of study of the possibility of managing environmental emergencies are reviewed. Abstract: theofresults results of aaa study studyemergencies of the the possibility possibility of their managing environmental emergencies are reviewed. reviewed. The concept environmental is given, classification and sources are indicated. A work Abstract: the results of a study of the possibility of managing environmental emergencies are reviewed. The concept of environmental emergencies is given, their classification and sources are indicated. A work The concept of environmental emergencies is given, their classification and sources are indicated. A Abstract: the results of a study of the possibility of managing environmental emergencies are reviewed. The concept of environmental emergencies is given, their classification and sources are indicated. A work work program has been proposed to study the socio-economic consequences of the onset of environmental The concept of environmental emergencies is given, their classification and sources are indicated. A work program has been proposed to study the socio-economic consequences of the onset of environmental program has been proposed to study the socio-economic consequences of the onset of environmental The concept environmental is may given, their classification and are indicated. A work program has of been proposedoftoemergencies study thethat socio-economic consequences ofsources the onset of environmental emergencies. The hierarchy situations arise from the point of view of the decision maker durprogram has The beenhierarchy proposedof tosituations study thethat socio-economic consequences of the onset of environmental emergencies. may from the point of the decision maker duremergencies. hierarchy of may arise from the point of view of the decision maker durprogram has The beenand proposed study thethat socio-economic consequences of the onset of environmental emergencies. The hierarchy oftosituations situations that may arise arise fromis the point of of view view of the management decision maker during the operation development of the controlled object determined. The main modes, emergencies. The hierarchy of situations that may arise from the point of view of the decision maker during the operation and development of the controlled object is determined. The main management modes, ing the operation and development of the controlled object is determined. The main management modes, emergencies. The hierarchy of situations may arise from point of view of the management decision maker duringwell the operation and development of thethat controlled object isthe determined. The main modes, as as the main factors that influence the management decision-making, depending on the current siting the operation and development of the the controlled objectdecision-making, is determined. The main management modes, as as main factors that management depending on the sitas well as the main factors that influence management decision-making, depending on the current siting the are operation and development of the the controlled object is determined. The main management modes, as well well as the the main factors that influence influence the management decision-making, depending on automated the current current situation, highlighted. Control functions are proposed in various modes, carried out in an sysas well as the main factors that influence the management decision-making, depending on the current situation, are highlighted. Control functions are proposed in various modes, carried out in an automated sysuation, are highlighted. Control functions are proposed in various modes, carried out in an automated sysas well as the main factors that influence the management decision-making, depending on the current situation, are highlighted. Control functions are proposed in various modes, carried out in an automated system forare managing emergency situations, conducting situational analysis in a uation, highlighted. Controlenvironmental functions are proposed in based variouson modes, carriedaaa out in an automated system managing emergency situations, on conducting situational analysis in tem for managing emergency environmental situations, based on conducting situational analysis in uation, highlighted. Controlenvironmental functions areunder proposed in based various modes, carried out in anofautomated system for forare managing emergency environmental situations, based on conducting aexample situational analysis in aaa scenario study of the behavior of the object study. As an application, an the constructem for managing emergency environmental situations, based on conducting aexample situational analysis in a scenario study behavior of under study. As an application, an of construcscenario study of the behavior of the object under study. As an application, an of the constructem for managing emergency environmental situations, conducting situational analysis in a scenario study of of the the behavior of the the object object under study. based As anon application, anaexample example of the the construction and analysis cognitive an environmental emergency situation the Kuzbass basin scenario study of of theaaa behavior ofmap the of object under study. As an application, an in example of thecoal construction and analysis of cognitive map of an environmental emergency situation in the Kuzbass coal basin tion and analysis of cognitive map of an environmental emergency situation in the Kuzbass coal basin scenario study of the behavior of the object under study. As an application, an example of the construction and analysis of a cognitive map of an environmental emergency situation in the Kuzbass coal basin of the Russian Federation is considered. The typical development scenarios for of threats tion and analysis of a cognitive map of an environmental emergency situation inthe therealization Kuzbass coal basin of the Russian Federation is considered. The typical development scenarios for the realization of threats of Russian Federation is The typical development scenarios for the of threats tion and analysis ofofa environmental cognitive map emergencies, of an environmental emergency situation inpossible therealization Kuzbass coal basin of the the Russian Federation is considered. considered. The typical development scenarios for the realization ofprevent threats and the emergence evaluation criteria, as well as ways to of the Russian Federation is considered. The typical development scenarios for the realization of threats and the emergence of environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well as possible ways to prevent and the emergence of emergencies, evaluation criteria, as as ways of Russian Federation is considered. The typical development scenarios the realization ofprevent threats andthe the emergence of environmental environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well wellfor as possible possible ways to to prevent them are considered. and the emergence of environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well as possible ways to prevent them are considered. them are considered. and of environmental emergencies, evaluation criteria, as well as possible ways to prevent themthe areemergence considered. them are considered. © 2019, (Internationalemergency, Federation management, of Automatic Control) Hosting by ElsevierKuzbass Ltd. Allcoal rights reserved. Keywords: environmental sustainable development, basin. them areIFAC considered. Keywords: environmental Keywords: emergency, management, sustainable development, Kuzbass coal basin. Keywords: environmental environmental emergency, emergency, management, management, sustainable sustainable development, development, Kuzbass Kuzbass coal coal basin. basin. Keywords: environmental emergency, management, sustainable development, Kuzbass coal basin. Keywords: environmental emergency, management, sustainable development, Kuzbass coal basin. gram was was implemented implemented to to effectively effectively study study various various aspects aspects gram 1. INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION gram was was implemented implemented to to effectively effectively study study various various aspects aspects gram 1. of the socio-economic consequences of environmental 1. INTRODUCTION gram implemented toconsequences effectively study aspects 1. INTRODUCTION of socio-economic of environmental of the thewas socio-economic consequences of various environmental gram was implemented to effectively study various aspects of the socio-economic consequences of environmental 1. 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It is also acute many subthe increasingly complex conditions for the functioning of pollution. On the one hand, its importance is determined by the increasingly complex conditions for the functioning of several regions of the world. It is also acute for many subThe problem ofofenvironmental pollution is for a priority for several regions theFederation. world. It isOn also acute many subcomplex production and socio-economic systems, which jects of the Russian the territory of Russia, the increasingly complex conditions for the functioning of complex production and socio-economic systems, which several regions of the world. It is also acute for many subjects of the Russian Federation. 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In a number of regions of76%. the country, the share of man-made emergencies reaches At the same requires new research tools, including situational modeling ronment require an immediate response of Socium. All this requires new research tools, including situational modeling share of man-made emergencies reaches 76%. At the same age a number regions of76%. theenvironmental country, the share of year. man-made emergencies reaches At the same methods new based on scenario scenario studies of of complexmodeling systems time,per in many In regions of theofworld world natural requires research tools, including situational methods based on studies complex systems share of man-made emergencies reaches 76%. At the same time, in many regions of natural environmental methods new based on scenario scenario studies of of complexmodeling systems requires research tools, including situational methods based on studies complex systems time, in many regions of the natural environmental share of man-made emergencies reaches 76%. At thefloods, same time, in many(BSECs) regions of the the world world natural environmental [Kononov D.A. (1999), (2001)]. emergencies (tsunamis, volcanoes, fires, methods based on scenario studies of complex systems [Kononov D.A. (1999), (2001)]. time, in many regions of the world natural environmental emergencies (BSECs) (tsunamis, volcanoes, fires, floods, [Kononov D.A. (1999), (2001)]. methods on scenario studies of complex systems [Kononovbased D.A. (1999), (2001)]. emergencies (BSECs) (tsunamis, volcanoes, fires, time, in many regions of the natural environmental emergencies (BSECs) (tsunamis, volcanoes, fires, floods, floods, epidemics, etc.) account for world significant proportion of [Kononov D.A. (1999), (2001)]. emergencies (BSECs) (tsunamis, volcanoes, proportion fires, floods, epidemics, etc.) account for aaaa significant of At the Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Acade[Kononov D.A. (1999), (2001)]. epidemics, etc.) account for significant proportion of emergencies (BSECs) (tsunamis, volcanoes, fires, floods, epidemics, etc.) account for significant proportion of At the Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Acadeemergency events events that are arefor in athe thesignificant nature of of proportion an ecological ecological At the the Institute Institute of of Control Control Sciences Sciences of of the the Russian Russian AcadeAcadeAt epidemics, etc.) account of emergency that in nature an my of Sciences, together with the Russian State University emergency events that are in the nature of an ecological At the Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Acadeepidemics, etc.) account for a significant proportion of emergency events that are in the nature of an ecological my of Sciences, together with the Russian State University disaster. In such conditions, it is especially important to my of Sciences, together with the Russian State University At the Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, together with the Russian State University emergency events that are in it the nature of an ecological disaster. In such is especially important to for the Humanities, aa program has been started study the disaster. In such conditions, is especially important to my of Sciences, together with the Stateto emergency thatmethods are in it nature of an ecological disaster. In events such conditions, conditions, itthe is environmental especially important to for the Humanities, program has been started to study the create new new effective of managefor the the Humanities, program has Russian been started started toUniversity study the the my of Sciences, together withenvironmental the Russian State University for Humanities, aa program has been to study disaster. 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The The main main goal of ofThis research–– development of a classification of environmental emersituations, ing problems problems related toenvironmental environmental emergencies is istheir their development of classification of environmental emerimportant but challenging task. The main goal of researching related to environmental emergencies is – development development of of aaa classification classification of of environmental environmental emeremering problems related to environmental emergencies is their –gencies; important but challenging task. The main goal of researching problems related to environmental emergencies is their impact on the life of the Society. The following work pro– development of a classification of environmental emergencies; ing problems related to environmental emergencies is their impact on the life of the Society. The following work progencies; impact on life the Society. work pro–gencies; development of a classification of environmental emering problems emergencies is their impact on the the related life of of to theenvironmental Society. The The following following work progencies; impact on© the life of the Society. The following work progencies; 2405-8963 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. impact on the life of the Society. The following work proPeer review under responsibility of International Federation of Automatic Control. 10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.12.442 D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39 36 – analysis of the possibility of managing environmental emergencies; We distinguish between the main sources of environmental emergencies: natural and man-made. – development of methods and for principles for an automated environmental emergency management system. World statistics of natural sources is presented in Fig. 1 [The Emissions Gap report 2017]. 2. CONCEPT AND CLASSIFICATION OF EMERGENCY ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS Currently, the concept of an “environmental emergency” is not defined by any approved official documents of the Russian Federation. A number of authors propose the following verbal definition: environmental emergency - deviation from the natural or normal state of the environment, which occurred as a result of a natural disaster or human economic activity and led to negative consequences of an economic, environmental and social nature. representing a threat to life and health of people, objects of the national economy and elements of the environment in a limited area. As follows from this definition, an emergency ecological situation is considered not only as a result of extreme co-existence, as a natural disaster, but also as a possible result of anthropogenic activity. Note the characteristic features of environmental emergencies: Note signs of environmental emergencies: – danger to life and health of a significant number of people; – a significant violation of the ecological balance; Fig. 1. World statistics of natural sources of environmental emergencies. The following main types of such situations can be distinguished from the variety of anthropogenic environmental emergencies due to their occurrence (Fig. 2): – chemical accidents; – fires and explosions; – radiation accidents; – transport accidents and accidents on pipelines. World statistics of man-made sources is presented in Fig. 2 [https://yandex.ru]. – failure of life support systems; – significant material and environmental damage; – the need to attract forces and means of emergency response; – psychological discomfort for large groups of people. The most serious environmental emergencies are called environmental disaster (environmental catastrophe). They are characterized by extraordinary events of especially large scale, caused by changes in the state of the land, atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere, negatively affecting people's health, their spiritual sphere, living environment, economy and gene pool. Fig. 2. World statistics of technological environmental emergencies. The environmental emergency zone is a part of the territory officially declared by the state (city, region, region), which clearly shows signs of the destruction of ecological systems of nature, global environmental pollution, depletion of water, land, plant and animal resources, where there is a sharp an increase in morbidity and mortality, many times exceeding the average for the region indicators. The zone of ecological disaster – the relevant parts of the territory officially declared by the state (city, region, territory, region), where signs were marked: complete destruction of ecological systems of nature, global pollution of atmospheric air, water bodies, soils, complete depletion of aquatic, plant, animal resources, high morbidity and mortality rates. Fig. 3. Consequences of man-made activities. D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39 37 The consequences of the occurrence of technological activity are presented in Fig. 3. Currently developed and using a number of formalized methods for studying environmental emergencies, which can be grouped into the following groups: Statistics of man-made environmental emergencies are presented in Fig. 4 [https://yandex.ru]. 1. ecology methods – methods of studying environmental factors: physical, chemical, biological; – methods for studying the effects of environmental factors on the organism and ecosystems; 2. observation methods – methods for recording monitoring and evaluating environmental parameters; – methods of quantitative accounting of organisms, biomass and productivity; – methods of monitoring and bioindication; Fig. 4. Consequences of technological activity. 3. experimental methods – laboratory; To analyze the degree of danger of the environmental situation in the regions of the Russian Federation, an “ecological index of the region” is calculated (Fig. 5) [https://yandex.ru]. – full-scale; 4. simulation methods – material models; – ideal (verbal, mathematical, graphic, imitation). To build adequate models for studying environmental emergencies, it is necessary to build a hierarchy of formalized concepts. The study identified the following concepts. Fig. 5. The ecological level of the regions of Russia. The proposed characteristics of assessing environmental situations in the regions are used to predict them and determine the necessary measures to improve the macroeconomic and environmental indicators of the region. 3. RESEARCH METHODS OF EMERGENCY ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS Following [Keeler E. (1972)], under the pollution in modeling it is usually understood the stock or flow of substances that reduce the ability of a person to non-productive consumption of goods. Such a definition of pollution in a general sense includes a very wide range of phenomena from water and air pollution to soil exhaustion if it is excessively used, but it does not rely on the concept of “safety of operation and development”. Challenge is a collection of circumstances, not necessarily specifically threatening, but requiring response to them. A challenge represents phenomena and processes that currently do not call into question security, but if a number of specific measures are not taken, security will be difficult to achieve or even impossible in the future. In essence, the challenge is determined by the existence of indirect negative factors, which in their development can lead to undesirable conditions. conflict situation, substantially change and create a direct threat. The call characteristic is the expected time of the hazard. Danger is a well-understood, but not fatal, possibility of an undesirable situation or situation, determined by the presence of objective and subjective factors with damaging properties. It represents an objectively existing possibility of negative impact, as a result of which the state of the object may deteriorate. Danger is a property of Nature. Hazard characteristics - the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, damage. Safety is the expected absence of danger. Risk is a system parameter, a property of the control system (decision-making), in particular, the decision maker. The property lies in the fact that such management decisions can be made that may entail the possibility of the occurrence of undesirable phenomena as a result of the decision made, i.e. D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39 38 risk of man-made hazard. Risk characteristics – the likelihood of adverse events, the damage, the degree of risk. Threat is a factor (phenomenon), the realization of which can lead to the possibility of the realization of undesirable phenomena (situations). When examining a system object under threat, we will understand the totality of factors of the system and the external environment, which, from the point of view of decision-makers, can lead to a significant deterioration of its parameters. 4. MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCY ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATIONS The implementation of the environmental emergency management process requires the definition of – environmental safety targets; – criteria for safe operation and development of a managed object: they usually consist of predetermined critical values of target indicators, or undesirable tendencies of their development; – models, methods and control mechanisms; – criteria for evaluating management efficiency. When the specified components of the management model are identified, development monitoring is carried out - regular assessment of target indicators and comparison of their values with acceptable ones. In the course of monitoring, they track the development trends and predict crisis phenomena. A crisis phenomenon is a situation in which at least one value of the target indicator falls below a critical value or a tendency of undesirable development is observed. The management of safe development is carried out by acting on the controlled components. Of these, select those for which the impact will be most effective for solving the set formal problem. Determine the necessary (the principle of the minimum necessary impact) and sufficient changes to the components to exit the system from the crisis (the principle of sufficiency). The results are checked on a graph model (cognitive map of the ecological situation). Out of the possible choices, impacts that, as far as possible, approximate the tendency of changes in its indicators to their development targets. Such an approach allows not only to bring the system out of the crisis, but also to prevent its occurrence, to control development, correcting the scenario of changing parameters in order to effectively achieve the target result. 2) high alert – characterized by the availability of information about the signs of a potential threat of an environmental emergency. 3) emergency – characterized by circumstances, the combination of which in accordance with existing regulations is defined as an emergency. 4) elimination of the consequences of an environmental emergency – characterized by the absence of active damaging factors of the environmental emergency. For the formation of goal-setting and selection of strategies for managing environmental emergencies, it is necessary to classify the environmental situation in terms of safety. A crisis situation is a situation in which, without proper management, going beyond the security limits follows, with several methods of control that can keep the system functioning within security can be found by methods of seeking reverse control. The critical situation is the situation, i.e. configuration of values of essential parameters of the system, in which, without proper control, the overstepping of safety limits follows, with the methods of seeking reverse control, the only control option that preserves the functioning of the system within safety limits can be found. An intermediate situation is an uncontrollable situation this is a situation where, when an overflow is detected, it is impossible to find management solutions to avoid an emergency. An emergency situation is an unfavorable combination of factors and circumstances that violate the conditions of their normal life activity, which impede production, business, household and other activities. An emergency situation is characterized by the release of target parameters beyond the permissibility limit. On the basis of these definitions, one can verbally and formally formulate the tasks of environmental emergency management, including: – classification of states; – optimal monitoring; – determine the possibility of deterioration of the state of objects; – determine the possibility of managing states. In the process of research, the main modes of environmental emergency management are highlighted: The main task of management in accordance with this classification of the states of a given set of potentially dangerous system elements at given time points is to determine the possibility of controlled transitions from the current state to the more desirable one. 1) daily activities – characterized by the lack of information on clear signs of the threat of an emergency environmental situation. 5. STUDY OF THE ECOLOGICAL SITUATION OF THE KUZBASS REGION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION As an application of the proposed research methodology, models of environmental management in the Kuzbass coal D.A. Kononov / IFAC PapersOnLine 52-25 (2019) 35–39 basin of the Russian Federation are considered. In Fig. 6 shows a cognitive map of the ecological situation in the region. The region has a mechanism to strictly limit the cumulative release of harmful substances into the environment by all industrial enterprises, mainly coal waste. This means that each enterprise acquires a quota for pollution on the market, within which it carries out emission of harmful substances associated with production. If the company for any reason goes beyond the quota allocated to it, it loses its license for production activities. The quota allocation mechanism is a market one, i.e. quotas can be objects of sale, and for their possession a competitive struggle can unfold. We note that the level that limits aggregate emissions is not determined by the quota demand in the market, but is set by the regional administration, for example, by the municipality. 39 increasing in amplitude fluctuations in the population size increase pollution due to household and industrial pollution. For the constructed model, the sufficient conditions for impulse stability were not fulfilled; therefore, an effective control mechanism was not found. As part of this study, a new method of finding effective management was applied, based on the study of basic scenarios, to solve the inverse problem of management. This made it possible to determine the optimal structure of the cognitive map of the socio-ecological situation in the region and to develop effective economic, legal, environmental and social mechanisms for coordinating regional development goals. The proposed method is based on the study of the Jordan form of the adjacency matrix of the cognitive graph of the Kuzbass region. 7. CONCLUSION The proposed methods of formalizing basic concepts allow building emergency management models in order to solve basic management tasks with specified types of constraints, including coordinating private and general social goals. The presented results allow us to hope that the proposed new models and research methods can be useful and used as mathematical and methodological support in automated systems for managing emergency environmental situations. REFERENCES Fig. 6. Cognitive map of the Kuzbass region. In the course of this study, the tasks of environmental management are considered on the basis of building and analyzing a cognitive map of the socio-ecological situation of the Kuzbass region. To set a management task, it is necessary to specify the control variables of the tasks, target indicators and criteria for effective management: – control variables (controls): the number of enterprises, the level of competition, the maximum level of emission of harmful substances; cognitive map structure. – target indicators: the quality of life of the population and the likelihood of an environmental emergency. The task is to find managements that ensure the quality of life does not decrease and the likelihood of an environmental emergency to occur is reduced. In this formulation, the direct control problem was considered in [Kononov D.A. (2008)]. At the same time, the typical scenario of the development of the ecological situation in the region is unfavorable. Fluctuations in the number of enterprises leads to fluctuations in the level of employment of the population, which “shakes” the migration processes: Gleick P.H. (1991). Gleick P.H. 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