Aplicaciones de métodos GPS-GNSS para la medición precisa (milimétrica) de deformaciones volcánicas y desplazamientos tectónicos Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra. Instituto de Geofísica (UNAM) Ciudad Universitaria, 23-27 de Junio de 2014 Manuel Berrocoso Domínguez. Laboratorio de Astronomía, Geodesia y Cartografía. Departamento de Matemáticas. Facultad de Ciencias. Campus Río San Pedro. Universidad de Cádiz. Correo-e: manuel.berrocoso@uca.es LA RED GEODINÁMICA GNSS ISLA DE EL HIERRO LA RED GEODINÁMICA GNSS ISLA DE EL HIERRO ESTACIONES IGN-CSIC ESTACIÓN GRAFCAN Sólo placa Nubia Deformación como precursor Distance variation shows an important decrease of almost 12 cm/year, mainly observed in the north component of FRON station. The numerous seismic events in this period are lesser than 2.5 of magnitude. The accumulate seismic energy is increasing. Between the end of August and the end of September, the deformation suffers an acceleration reaching 24cm/year. The seismic events with magnitude greater than 2.5 and accumulated seismic energy also increase. (September, 28 – October 10). Spectacular lithospheric elastic process. September, 28 – October, 3: Increase of LPAL-FRON distance (2 cm). Seismic swarm with magnitude > 3.5. Exponential increase of accumulated seismic energy. October 3 – 8: Decrease of LPALFRON distance (3 cm). Seismic events with magnitude > 3.5. The accumulated seismic energy continues to increase. October 8 – 10: Increase of LPALFRON distance (1 cm). Seismic event with magnitude 4.4 (2011/10/08) October, 10 : Submarine eruption starts with 16cm/year deformation detected (4 cm absolutes). (September, 28 – October 10). Spectacular lithospheric elastic process. September, 28 – October, 3: Increase of LPAL-FRON distance (2 cm). Seismic swarm with magnitude > 3.5. Exponential increase of accumulated seismic energy. October 3 – 8: Decrease of LPALFRON distance (3 cm). Seismic events with magnitude > 3.5. The accumulated seismic energy continues to increase. October 8 – 10: Increase of LPALFRON distance (1 cm). Seismic event with magnitude 4.4 (2011/10/08) October, 10 : Submarine eruption starts with 16cm/year deformation detected (4 cm absolutes). From the eruption starts a new scenario appears when the lithospheric elasticity coefficient is overcame. Then the deformation analysis must be qualitative. From October 11 to 31, the deformation seems to be stable coinciding with seismic events of magnitude lesser than 3.0. The accumulated seismic energy is also stable. The north component of FRON seems to show the pre-process tectonic deformation trend. The first days of November a new change in the deformation trend is observed. The north component of FRON trend to the south till January, 2012, when the tectonic trend is retrieved. This phase starts with a great number of seismic events with magnitude bigger than 4.0, mainly located in the north of El Hierro Island. The accumulated seismic energy increases exponentially. There are scientific evidences of the occurrence, on November, 3, of a second submarine eruption in the north of El Hierro Island. After the occurrence of the greater magnitude seismic event (4.6; 2011/11/11), both volcanic processes are coincident producing alternative trends of distance variations (increase-decrease). The submarine eruption in the south (La Restinga) dominates the resultant of both processes. Phase 7. From late 2011 to June 2012, the deformation is stable with some seismic events with magnitude lesser than 3.5. From end of June to mid-July, a reactivation process is reflected in the deformation and seismic events with magnitude greater than 3.5. Phase 8 (September 2012 – January 2013). Process of deflation and inflation. Phase 9 (March 2013). A new change in the deformation trend coinciding with numerous seismic events with magnitude greater than 4.0. Phase 10 (April 2013 – November 2013). Stable period. Phase 9 (March 2013). A new change in the deformation trend coinciding with numerous seismic events with magnitude greater than 4.0. Phase 10 (April 2013 – November 2013). Stable period. Phase 11. A new reactivation process is produced in December 2013. LOCALIZACIÓN DE LAS FUENTES DE PRESIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN DEL SISTEMA ∆d : desplazamiento radial ∆h : desplazamiento vertical h : altitud del vértice a : radio de la fuente f : profundidad de la fuente ∆P : cambio de presión hidrostática µ : coeficiente de elasticidad de Lamé υ : parámetro de Poisson En áreas volcánicas: µ aproximadamente 1 GPa ∆P/µ varía entre un rango de 10-3 a 10-1 υ = 0.25 LOCALIZACIÓN DE LAS FUENTES DE PRESIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN DEL SISTEMA The first obtained model, from end-July to end-August, locates the pressure source under Tanganasoga volcano (in the center of the El Hierro Island) at 10 km deep. This source moves to the south, to Las Calmas sea, for the second MOGI model, with an increase of volume and decreasing the depth. The third model shows a source with more volume and displacement to the south. LOCALIZACIÓN DE LAS FUENTES DE PRESIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN DEL SISTEMA LOCALIZACIÓN DE LAS FUENTES DE PRESIÓN Y EVOLUCIÓN DEL SISTEMA PRONÓSTICO SOBRE LA EVOLUCIÓN A CORTO PLAZO (FILTRADO PREDICTIVO KALMAN) PRONÓSTICO SOBRE LA EVOLUCIÓN A CORTO PLAZO (FILTRADO PREDICTIVO KALMAN) EL PROCESO DE LA NAVIDAD DE 2013 EL PROCESO DE LA NAVIDAD DE 2013 PROCESADOS HASTA DIA 1 de Enero de 2014 LPAL-FRON 112597,66 112597,66 112597,65 112597,65 112597,64 112597,64 112597,63 112597,63 112597,62 112597,62 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 Continúa el cambio de tendencia en la Deformación, pero apunta a un nuevo proceso de elevación después de la Subsidencia generalizada del día anterior EL PROCESO DE LA NAVIDAD DE 2013 EL PROCESO DE LA NAVIDAD DE 2013 AYER (25 Junio 2014) ALAJ ( La Gomera) ICOD ( Tenerife) IZAN ( Tenerife) SNMG ( Tenerife) Estaciones de control AYER (25 Junio 2014)