Consumer confidence - Casa de Bolsa Banorte Ixe

Economic Research
Mexico
Consumer confidence: September’s hike
suggests that consumers are discounting
better growth prospects

Consumer confidence (September): 91.8 points; Banorte-Ixe: 89.4;
consensus: 90 (range of estimates: 89.2 to 90.3pts.); previous: 89.7

Consumer confidence declined 2.4%yoy

However, in seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up
2.3%m/m

We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward
trend in 4Q14
October 3, 2014
www.banorte.com
www.ixe.com.mx
@analisis_fundam
Alejandro Cervantes
Senior Economist, Mexico
alejandro.cervantes@banorte.com
Consumer confidence declined 2.4%yoy in September. We highlight the fall
in consumers’ expectations regarding the household’s present and future
economic outlook (0.9% and 2.8%yoy, respectively). Similarly, confidence on
the country’s future conditions edged down 6.6%, while the perspective
regarding its current situation increased 2.2%yoy. Finally, the purchasing power
component decreased 3.8%yoy, as shown in the table below.
Consumer confidence: September 2014
nsa index
nsa
Headline index
Sep-14
Sep-13
%yoy
91.8
94.1
-2.4
Household's
Current conditions
96.7
97.6
-0.9
Expectations
99.4
102.2
-2.8
Current conditions
93.2
91.2
2.2
Expectations
92.3
98.8
-6.6
77.6
80.6
-3.8
National
Household's purchasing power
Source: INEGI
However, in seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up
2.3%m/m. Taking a look at the breakdown, consumers’ expectations regarding
the household’s present and future conditions increased 1% and 1.2%yoy,
respectively. Moreover, consumer’s perspective regarding the country’s present
and future conditions expanded 7.8% and 3.9%m/m. Finally, the purchasing
power component increased 3.7%m/m (refer to the chart on the next page).
Document for distribution among
public
1
Consumer confidence: September 2014
sa index
sa
Sep-14
Aug-14
%m/m
90.4
88.4
2.3
Current conditions
96.3
95.3
1.0
Expectations
98.4
97.2
1.2
Current conditions
95.5
88.6
7.8
Expectations
90.4
87.0
3.9
76.6
73.9
3.7
Headline index
Household's
National
Household's purchasing power
Source: INEGI
We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward trend in
4Q14. While the non-seasonal adjusted figures continue to show a downward
trend, we believe that the progress observed in the seasonally adjusted figures
during the last eight months could be showing that consumers have begun to
project a more positive outlook for the economic performance of Mexico. In this
regard, we believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward
trend, which will eventually translate into better growth dynamics in private
spending.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or
recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.}
2
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