Consumer confidence - Casa de Bolsa Banorte Ixe

Economic Research
Mexico
Consumer confidence: November’s hike
suggests that consumers are discounting
better growth prospects

Consumer confidence (November): 92.9 points; Banorte-Ixe: 89.2;
consensus: 90 (range of estimates: 88.5 to 92pts.); previous: 90.6

Consumer confidence increased 4.7%yoy

In seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up 3.3%m/m

We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward
trend in 1Q15
December 5, 2014
www.banorte.com
www.ixe.com.mx
@analisis_fundam
Alejandro Cervantes
Senior Economist, Mexico
alejandro.cervantes@banorte.com
Consumer confidence increased 4.7%yoy in November. We highlight the
expansion in consumers’ perspectives regarding the household’s present and
future economic outlook (4.5% and 2.6%yoy, respectively). Similarly,
consumers’ expectations regarding the country’s present and future economic
conditions expanded 4.5% and 2.1%yoy, respectively. Finally, the purchasing
power component increased 11.1%yoy, as shown in the table below.
Consumer confidence: November 2014
nsa index
nsa
Nov-14
Nov-13
%yoy
92.9
88.7
4.7
Current conditions
99.5
95.2
4.5
Expectations
101.3
98.8
2.6
Current conditions
88.0
84.3
4.5
Expectations
90.0
88.1
2.1
85.5
77.0
11.1
Headline index
Household's
National
Household's purchasing power
Source: INEGI
In seasonally adjusted terms, consumer confidence edged up 3.3%m/m.
Taking a look at the breakdown, consumers’ expectations regarding the
household’s present and future conditions increased 2.6% and 2.5%m/m,
respectively. Moreover, consumer’s expectations regarding the country’s future
conditions expanded 2.4%m/m. Finally, the purchasing power component
increased a significant 5.2%m/m (refer to the chart on the next page).
Document for distribution among
public
1
Consumer confidence: November 2014
sa index
sa
Nov-14
Oct-14
%m/m
94.9
91.8
3.3
Current conditions
100.3
97.8
2.6
Expectations
101.3
98.8
2.5
Current conditions
91.4
91.5
0.0
Expectations
92.7
90.5
2.4
83.3
79.2
5.2
Headline index
Household's
National
Household's purchasing power
Source: INEGI
We believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward trend in
1Q15. We believe that the progress observed in the seasonally adjusted figures
during the last ten months could be showing that consumers have continued to
project a more positive outlook for the economic performance of Mexico. In this
regard, we believe that consumer confidence will continue with its upward
trend, which will eventually translate into better growth dynamics in private
spending.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is illustrative and informative so it should not be considered as an advice and/or
recommendation of any kind. BANORTE is not part of any party or political trend.}
2
GRUPO FINANCIERO BANORTE S.A.B. de C.V.
Research and Strategy
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Chief Economist and Head of Research
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