Post-conflict as seen by the Victims

Development “In Perspective”
December 2006
02
Post-conflict as seen by
the Victims
FRIDE has started the project Promoting empowerment in
Development “In Perspective”
post-conflict scenarios with the establishment of an analytical
FRIDE’s publication Development “In
framework that constitutes the base of the consecutive stages
Perspective” will provide in-depth information on current issues related to
of the project.To this end, a series of short documents has been
development. It aims at encouraging
published in order to clarify concepts, define instruments and
debate and providing analysis of the
analyse measures, with the objective of understanding post-
implications for development coopera-
conflict situations, through a particular approach, the
tion policies.
empowerment processes. Subsequently, FRIDE will analyse the
extent to which empowerment can be an efficient tool for
conflict prevention and peace-building. Even though each
About FRIDE
separate document provides an independent analysis, the whole
FRIDE is an independent think-tank
series presents a broader picture. The ultimate goal of this
based in Madrid, focused on issues
related to democracy and human rights;
project is to spark the recurrent debate over the need to
peace and security; and humanitarian
conceive the concept of development from a standpoint other
action
than the traditional one.
and
development.
FRIDE
attempts to influence policy-making and
inform public opinion, through its
research in these areas.
Paula San Pedro
2
Currently, more than 30 countries in the world find
themselves in an extremely dangerous situation. In
2005, there were around 15 countries in conflict and
50 were trying to come out of a crisis.1 Despite the fact
I. What is a postconflict scenario?
that these figures vary according to the source, there
seems to be no doubt that the transition from war to
The term conflict refers to armed violence involving
peace is no easy task; an estimated 44 percent of
different types of groups such as military forces,
countries in conflict relapse into violence during the
guerrillas, armed groups, and paramilitary, religious or
following five years after a peace agreement and 50
ethnic communities, which use arms or other
percent reverse into conflict in the first decade of
destructive methods. Conflicts are in theory measured
peace.2 In order to reverse this situation, victims - the
by their intensity level. A conflict may cause 25 direct
invisible faces of conflict - have to be placed in the
casualties per year, whereas a war goes up to 1,000
centre of the analysis and practice. The international
casualties. While this is a useful quantitative criterion,
development cooperation has not only to recognise
other factors need to be taken into account: the
their value, but also understand what is a post-conflict
geographical extension of violence, the country’s total
scenario, its causes and consequences before
population, destruction levels and displacements
intervening.
caused by conflict.This study will use the term conflict
in a broad sense and will apply it to all contexts,
regardless of its intensity level. This is due to the fact
that the abovementioned sense of the term is the most
widely used in international terminology.3
Current armed conflicts – the so-called ‘new wars’ –
are mainly internal conflicts with regional and
international implications due, among other things, to
the flow of refugees, arms trade, and political and
financial relations they generate. Another significant
1 Megan Burke, ‘Recovering from Armed Conflict: Lessons
Learned and Next Steps for Improved International Assistance’,
FRIDE Working Paper Nº22, April 2006; and Informe de la
Escola de Cultura de la Pau, 2006.
2 Paul Collier, V. L. Elliot, Håvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler,
Marta Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis, Breaking the
Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank
and Oxford University Press, 2003, p. 7; and ‘Aid, Policies and
risk in post conflict scenarios’, 2006. Despite the fact that this
figure has been extensively used, currently new revised figures
reduce the percentage to 25. Regardless of statistics, the
tendency to conflict resurge is the idea that wants to be
highlighted.
Development “In Perspective” 02
characteristic is the fact that 90 percent of conflict
victims are civilians, whereas only 10 percent are
military victims. In the early twentieth century,
3 The concepts of conflict and war also differ in that
conflicts do not necessarily have to be violent or negative. More
often than not they constitute normal elements in social
relations and contribute to change.
3
however, the trend was the opposite. Another
in countries with an income per capita of 250 dollars
discouraging fact is that over one third of the
are twice as high as in countries with a income per
population4 is exposed to armed violence. Poor
capita of 600 dollars. This suggests that poverty and
countries are the most disadvantaged territories due
low growth are associated with conflict, which in turn
mainly to arms trade (75 percent goes into these
reinforces the conditions for more poverty and even
countries), corruption, and instability of their
lower growth. For many countries, the conflict trap is
institutions and states. The sum of these factors leads
part of the poverty trap. There is also a strong direct
to the risk of violence relapse being inevitably higher.
link between low human development and conflict. In
Thus, for instance, according to statistics, around 50
fact, violence is one of the fastest and most direct ways
percent of conflicts are concentrated in Africa.
to reach the lowest level of the Human Development
Index (HDI). It is also one of the most important
Chart 1. Number of armed conflicts in 2005
indicators of the country’s permanence in the lowest
levels. Nine of the last ten countries in the HDI in 2005
Africa
Algeria, Burundi, Ivory Coast, Nigeria,
have at some point gone through conflict since 1990.
Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia
and Uganda
The other side of human development is human
The Americas
Colombia and Haiti
Asia
Afghanistan,
security. This term refers to the concept of security
the
Philippines,
India,
Indonesia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand
against major threats, and of protection against
Europe
Chechnya
sudden changes in daily life. Conflict, therefore,
Middle-East
Iraq and Israel-Palestine
undermines security in both dimensions: it reinforces
poverty and devastates the lives of victims.
Source: Escola de Cultura de la Pau Report, 2006
Due to the lack of a commonly agreed6 definition of
While it is true that there is no direct link between
post-conflict scenario, this study considers that post-
poverty and conflict, it is also true that deeply
conflict scenarios are time periods in which past
polarised societies with weak institutions and acute
hostilities have decreased to a level where
poverty are more likely to resort to violence. There is,
reintegration and rehabilitation activities can actually
however, a direct link between growth and conflict.
begin. When a conflict ends, the halt of violence must
According to some studies,5 the chances of a civil war
lead to an armistice agreement, which would help
restore peace. This important moment is often
4 See F. Stewart and V. Fitzgerald, War and
Underdevelopment. The Economic and Social Consequences of
Conflict, 2000.
5 Macartan Humphreys, Economics and Violent Conflict,
characterised by the return of refugees and of
Cambridge, Mass., 2003.
have a commonly agreed definition.
6 Other terms related to post-conflict such as peacekeeping
Post-conflict as seen by the Victims
December 2006
4
internally displaced persons. This term includes,
have become powerful thanks to war. They also
therefore, different types of scenarios that range from
control the illegal market and intimidate the
low-intensity conflicts to unstable peace or solved
population.
conflicts. Each of these scenarios, and their different
variants, represent different levels of stability. However,
Chart 2. Complex political emergencies
they all have one thing in common: the acute
humanitarian crisis is over, the reintegration process
The term complex political emergency (CPE) was coined at the
has begun and political and economic recovery is on
United Nations to describe the main crisis situations that
the right track.
proliferated since 1989. According to the UN, a CPE is a
humanitarian crisis of multi-casual nature. Some authors such
Despite this, the difference between conflict and post-
as Duffield,8 however, claim that CPEs are mainly
conflict is still not clear. Today’s conflicts tend to be
characterised by a long political crisis. In its broader sense,
chronic and last for years, even decades, irrespective
CPE are also identified with armed conflicts, displacements,
of an eventual peace agreement. Apparently stable
diseases and hunger. To that, it is necessary to add the
weakening or failure of economic and state structures. Complex
situations can suddenly become unsafe scenarios. It
emergencies are often exacerbated by natural disasters and
is, therefore, difficult to know when a conflict is over.
inadequate transport networks. The response to this must,
According to World Bank data,7 the chances of a
therefore, be systematic and must include, among others, the
conflict reappearing after the end of hostilities are as
following actions: military intervention, peace-promotion
high as 40 percent. The percentage is reduced by 1
activities, high-level diplomacy and aid programmes.
percent every conflict-free year. Unfortunately, the
most reliable indicator of a potential conflict is a past
conflict. If not handled properly, post-conflict
scenarios could be dangerous and the chances of
conflict re-emerging could be high. There are various
factors that account for these risks. Rebel groups
with military capacities have emerged from the
conflict, violence is used on a daily basis and people
are ready for war. It must also be added that certain
groups will have an interest in the rebirth of conflict
given all the benefits they have got out of it for years.
These are politicians, military men or traders, who
7 Paul Collier, et al, 2003, op. cit., p. 7.
Development “In Perspective” 02
8 M. Duffield, ‘The political economy of international war:
asset transfer, complex emergencies and international aid’ in J.
MacRae and A. Zwi (eds), 1994.
5
represents 60 percent of Ethiopia’s total exports,
II. What are the
causes of conflict?
Violent conflicts and insecurity do not simply occur. In
most cases, conflicts develop and get worse over time.
It must be said that each conflict is different and must
be contextualised under its own parameters.There are,
however, common elements that can be classified into
five different domains:
cocoa accounts for 40 percent of Ivory Coast’s
exports and oil represents 92 percent of Angola’s
export commodities.
3) Autonomy and independence. A minority group
(sometimes also a majority) claims political power
over a specific region for cultural, historical,
political, economic or ethnical reasons. This type of
conflict usually appears to defend an unsatisfied
identity although there could be other factors that
could worsen people’s marginalisation.
1) Political. It is characterised by weak institutions, an
inefficient democratic system, a struggle for
political power and high levels of corruption. In
most cases, crises get worse because all these
factors intertwine. As a consequence, the state fails
to carry out its main functions up to the point where
it cannot fulfil its obligations and responsibilities to
society.
2) Economic. The economic factor that represents the
highest risk is the dependency of a country’s income
on raw material exports. According to some
studies,9 if exports account for 26 percent of the
GDP, the conflict risk could go as high as 23
percent. This factor explains to a great extent why
most conflicts take place in poor countries,
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where raw
4) Resources and population. The fight for access to
natural resources (mainly land and water) could
lead to conflict, especially in those countries without
proper legal or institutional protection. Migration
and displacements of local populations caused by
them can also be a source of conflict as they could
generate tensions among the local population.
5) Geographical. The geographic dispersion of the
population can reduce a government’s capacity to
control it (a clear example is the Democratic
Republic of the Congo). Studies10 show that there is
a 50 percent chance of conflict explosion in
countries with high dispersion.This figure goes down
to 3 percent in countries with a high concentration
of population.
materials are the motor of the national economy
and the main export materials. For instance, coffee
9 See P. Collier, ‘Economic causes of civil conflict and their
implications for policy’, Development Research Group, World
Bank, 2000.
Despite the above classification, it must be borne in
mind that these causes are in most cases intertwined
10 Ibid.
Post-conflict as seen by the Victims
December 2006
6
and not isolated. On the political side, a weak
institutional and state structure leads to parallel
markets,
income
inequalities
and
inadequate
distribution of resources. On the economic side, a rise
in illegal trade activities could create a political system
III. What are the
consequences of
conflict?
in which inequalities are fostered and access to
resources hindered. On the geographical side, a rise in
Generally speaking, violent conflicts are extremely
population could translate into a higher competence to
harmful to societies as they could halt progress and
access resources, education and job opportunities.
human development achieved by many generations.The
These needs will not be met if there is no solid, effective
impact of conflicts depends on their nature, conflict
institutional and social network. All these causal
phase and duration, and their economic and social
relations are an indication of the need to analyse
background. Their effects are also linked to the
conflict.This is the only possible way to understand the
responses given by national governments and the
specificities of a particular conflict and the scope of
international community. A society that has just come
the crisis.
out of a conflict shows the following profile, adapted to
its own context: a completely divided society, unequal
Chart 3. Conflict analysis
distribution of power, an urgent need to make justice
and a major gap between victims and combatants.
A conflict analysis is a systematic study of a conflict’s
profile, its causes, its actors and its dynamics. It allows all
The following lines will provide a detailed account of
actors involved in a particular context to have a better
the most common consequences in recent conflicts:
understanding of the reality and their role. It also explains
the relationship between intervention and context in order
to avoid negative impacts and maximise positive ones.
1) Negative economic growth. The agricultural sector
For all these reasons, a study must be carried out prior to
is particularly affected with a direct effect on food
any intervention. Because these types of scenarios change
security. The conflict reduces economic activity and
very rapidly, the analysis can never be in-depth or contain
investment while external debt increases due to
absolutely certain statements. The conflict dynamics are
loans received during the conflict. The World Bank
very complex and volatile. This is why a single conflict
analysis cannot be accurate enough. The study will need,
estimates that the average number of years in a civil
therefore, to be adapted to the changes and the needs
war is seven and that the economy’s growth rate is
depending on how the conflict and the peace process evolve.
reduced by 2.2 every year.11 With less resources
and a lower capacity to face the loss of resources
11 See Paul Collier, et al, 2003, op. cit.
Development “In Perspective” 02
7
and income, the poor are especially vulnerable to
Chart 4. Conflict death toll
the economic impact of conflict.
Given that the definition of conflict is not clear, there are
2) High death toll (see chart 4). A worsening of the
many problems to find out the total number of casualties
health and mortality rates and a decrease of
in a conflict. The sources are scarce and information is
nutrition and education levels. The conflict destroys
disparate. Measurements and methodologies vary as they
the health and the educational infrastructures,
reduces social expenditure and the few active
services available can no longer be used due to
are not consensually agreed. Also, until 2002 the World
Health Organisation (WHO) was the only international
organisation or entity offering this kind of information.To
insecurity.The consequences of all these factors are
this must be added the lack of overall information
extremely high human costs and a decline in human
regarding indirect casualties caused by a conflict. This is
development.
why we are unable to have an overall real picture of the
impact caused by conflict.
3) Widespread destruction. Severe loss in terms of
growth due to the weakening or destruction of all
types of capital, production plants, land and human
resources, as well social and organisational capital,
and a decrease in investment in these domains.
In this case we have taken two of the most cited sources
that reflect some of the problems previously spotted.
Despite not having more recent information to compare
with, some trends can be highlighted: the number of
casualties is decreasing considerably, conflicts are of low-
4) Increasing levels of national inequalities. These
intensity and heavy armament is no longer used.
lead to a malfunctioning of social integration
systems. At another level, wars have an impact on
Number of casualties
WHO
Lacina and Gleditsch
1998
97,893
588,000
1999
134,242
269,000
2000
99,536
235,000
2001
42,068
230,000
2002
19,368
172,000
social and family relations, which translate, among
other
things,
into
social
confrontations,
disappearance of association networks and
subversion of the scale of values.
5) High levels of insecurity. Conflict erodes human
security. Criminal violence becomes a generalised
lethal threat and has strong effects on all spheres of
society. It also generates chain reactions that
perpetuate and spread fear.This is a key issue in social
relations and will only disappear in future generations.
Post-conflict as seen by the Victims
December 2006
8
Several studies have shown that public goods, that is,
goods and services offered by the state, are the most
affected by conflict.12 Empirical evidence shows that this
problem is balanced thanks to the supply given by
IV. Who are the
victims of conflict?
emerging social networks, the flourishing informal
market, rebel groups and humanitarian agencies. At a
Determining who the victims of a conflict are can
domestic level, those most affected by conflicts are poor
become a difficult task given that all who go through a
communities living in rural areas without land properties,
war are potential victims.This is why listening to them
without access to other types of income and outside
is key to identifying the victims.They must say to what
assistance networks.On top of that, the victims of conflict
extent they feel victims. It is not about someone
are the most tragic of all of the above mentioned
determining who is a victim and who is not. Victims
consequences, and whose recovery is essential to achieve
must consider themselves as such according to their
sustainable peace. Hence, they must be part of the peace
personal feelings. Acknowledgment is the first step of
negotiation and the decision-making processes. It is
their recovery process as well as a basic element that
through these processes that a conflict can be solved and
will make them feel full members of society, capable of
the chances of a conflict re-birth minimised.
intervening in the public agenda.This is how they start
building their empowerment process.
In order to facilitate the work, victims can be divided into
different categories. This should not exclude, however,
what has been previously said. This classification is not
the same for all contexts and will vary depending on the
conflict. It must also be borne in mind that apart from
direct victims there are many other sectors of society that
suffer the consequences of conflict, even if they do not fall
under any specific category. For illustrative purposes, the
following lines provide the broadest and most common
classification of victims:
12 F. Stewart, F.P Humphreys, and N. Lee, ‘Civil Conflict in
Developing Countries over the Last Quarter of a Century: An
Empirical Overview of Economic and Social Consequences’,
Oxford Development Studies, Special Issue, 1997; G.
Carbonnier, ‘Conflict, Post-war Rebuilding and the Economy: A
Critical Review of the Literature’, War-torn Societies Project,
UNRISD Occasional Paper 2, Geneva: United Nations Research
Institute for Social Development, 1998.
Development “In Perspective” 02
Women and girls
This group is particularly affected due to its status in
society. They are usually the first victims in a war, are
9
sexually abused and are often affected by other types
as trauma, loss or uncertainty. Moreover, sometimes
of violence such as homicide, sexual slavery, and forced
they are HIV positive, victims of gender violence or
pregnancy or sterilisation. In the socio-economic
have been subjected to violence in refugee camps.
sphere, conflicts tend to foster a decline in the well-
Some are relatives of missing persons or have survived
being of women. Conflicts shape a country’s
torture. Their decision to unwillingly leave their
demography and consequently women become heads of
birthplace is never easy and they must deal with two
family, having to support their families and relatives.
conflicting feelings: feelings of despair when facing a
They are so overloaded with new responsibilities that
situation in which they are trapped and feelings of
they must look for alternative types of income to
resistance due to their willingness to save their lives
survive (such as prostitution). To this are added a
and those of their families.
feeling of rootlessness, a lack of resources and the
obligation to resettle in a community other than theirs,
Their decision to leave is often traumatic.They are in a
in which they do not have the traditional support.
state of shock because they have left everything behind
and are consequently unable to take the most
Consequently, this social evolution associated with
appropriate decisions. Upon arrival, expectations are
conflict also brings changes in women’s roles. In some
often unmet. In the case of refugees, they bear the pain
cases, these changes have been extremely positive. An
and survival problems endured during their journey and
example of this is the key role played by women as
it is when they arrive that they become aware of
peace promoters and their capacity to develop skills
psychological traumas. For their part, displaced
unknown so far. This recognition has been reflected in
persons face conflicting feelings: they feel foreigners in
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325,
their own country and are at the same time
which deals with the impact of war on women, and
marginalised by local communities.While it is true that
their contribution to conflict resolution and peace
some refugees or displaced persons may not wish to go
sustainability.
back to their homeland because they have rebuilt their
lives, it is also true that the feeling of not belonging to
the host land perseveres.
Refugees and displaced persons
They are the unavoidable consequence of war and
Ex-combatants
persecution. There are currently around 40 million
refugees and displaced persons. They face are not only
Defining who is a combatant and who is not is not
the lack of material goods and physical security, but
always easy. Traditionally, ex-combatants were those
also complex psychological destruction processes such
registered in the command structure. However, combat
Post-conflict as seen by the Victims
December 2006
10
units include a great number of irregular combatants
temporarily deployed such as women and children who
Relatives of missing or murdered
persons
spread propaganda, transport material, take care of
the sick and are forced into sexual services. There is
When supporting this group, the most important
also the question of how to classify relatives of
element is to actually face the loss. This type of loss is
combatants who move along with the troops and help
always traumatic and results in a difficult mourning
occasionally. Given the reality of modern wars, a
process. It also has a political component since the
demobilisation strategy must define the term
dead are the most tangible expression of destruction.
combatant in an inclusive way. It must also be as
Knowing how to handle this is key to determining
precise as possible to the conflict in question.
whether a culture of war can be replaced by a culture
of peace once the conflict is over.
Some combatants are perpetrators; some are victims;
others are both. Some have been forced to play that
Families of missing persons also face the pain and the
role while others have decided to fight voluntarily.
uncertainty of not knowing where their relatives are.
Some act as citizens of a state while others fight
They either lack information or have some changing,
because they identify themselves with the liberation
questionable data. Over time, families learn how to live
cause. Reintegration depends on how each of their
with their new reality and focus their lives on the
stories is tackled. Programmes must, therefore, avoid
continuous search of the missing person. Uncertainty
an unreal and potentially destructive homogenisation
and instability are thus permanent realities in their
of ex-combatants. During the conflict, ex-combatants
everyday lives. Those who were dependants of the
have fought, have witnessed violence or have suffered
missing person live under a state for which society has
it. All these questions become, either during or after the
no name (a woman is not officially considered a widow
conflict, major problems that could result in mental
but does not have a husband either).
crises. After a war, a combatant’s identity has no
longer meaning. They are no longer members of the
The more sudden and brutal the death and the less
institution that gave them protection and a past
accepted and integrated socially and politically, the
identity. In civil life, they must evaluate their new
more complicated is the mourning process. Even if this
reality in which they question behaviour patters and in
scenario is not characterised by uncertainty, having to
which their past life still plays an important role.
overcome the death of a relative is extremely difficult.
Despite its complexity, this is a learning process that
In several occasions, this depends on the manner of
can also lead to a severe identity crisis.
death - it is not the same to be tortured than to die in
action. Families feel rage and guilt and go from
passiveness to despair. Under these conditions, the
Development “In Perspective” 02
11
mourning period is associated with fear of an upsurge
of conflict and violence.
V. A change in focus
Apart from torn infrastructures, demolished buildings
Tortured and political prisoners
and useless services, there are devastated and torn
societies. There is fear and poverty, and an increasing
The main goal of torture is to destroy the victim both
degree of vulnerability as time goes by.The risks people
directly and symbolically. Physical violence creates a
have to face are often exacerbated by social
whole dilemma that succeeds in breaking a prisoner’s
insurrection, violence and a permanent feeling of
resistance. Prisoners are given the choice to either go
insecurity. In addition, there is the presence of refugees
against their personal convictions and therefore save
and displaced persons whose interests often clash with
their lives, or defend their principles and be sentenced
those of the local population. Furthermore, if the time
to death. Even if they are not political prisoners, they
factor is taken into account, there are entire
face the same dilemma. No matter what they decide –
generations that have only experienced war and do not
confess or not – their fate will be the same. The
know other kind of life. Under these circumstances,
destructive consequences of torture last for a long time
human needs are multiple in the long-run but answers
given that the victim’s mental structure is broken as
remain insufficient. Humanitarian assistance cannot
they believe they have actively participated in their own
respond by itself and the local networks – whose main
torture.They feel guilty and have lost their self-esteem.
goal is to protect – are fragmented and have no choice
The resulting trauma not only destroys their previous
but to halt their activities.
skills but also their learning potential. Also, their
behaviour changes and becomes more aggressive and
The solution, which is never easy, varies depending on
self-destructive.
the circumstances of each conflict.There is, however, an
invariable and constant element regardless of location,
origin, causes or consequences of a crisis. If we are to
stop the upsurge of conflicts and the human
destruction that they entail, we must inevitably include
society in all spheres, institutions and in decisionmaking processes. This is why donors should give the
population a role and offer the people the necessary
tools and mechanisms to decide what kind of peace and
future they wish for their country.
Post-conflict as seen by the Victims
December 2006
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