Spain`s LocalRegional elections 24M. Results at-a-glance

SPAIN’S LOCAL & REGIONAL ELECTIONS 24M
RESULTS AT-A-GLANCE
KEY FACTS
1/ The phenomenon of bipartisanship in Spain has weakened in these elections, but it
still defines the political environment.
2/ Eventual coalitions between the Popular Party and Ciudadanos could result in a
Popular Party government in the Autonomous Communities of Madrid, La Rioja, Castilla y
León and Murcia.
3/ Eventual coalitions of left-wing parties may result in a Socialist Party government in
Extremadura, Asturias, Aragón, Valencia, Baleares and Castilla-La Mancha.
4/ It is foreseeable that national and regional parties could govern in Cantabria,
Canarias and Navarra.
5/ In the majority of the regional parliaments there will be five or more political parties
with parliamentary representation. Balances of power and the so-called “variable
geometry”1 will be critical.
1 “Variable geometry” is a term coined during the government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero which refers to
the political agreements that the Parliamentary groups attain based on the matter and not on the ideology.
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Turnout in local elections has been very similar: almost 23 million votes in 2011 and
more than 22.5 million votes in 2015.
The Popular Party (PP) has won the local elections, by almost 0.5 million votes more than
the Socialist Party, however it has lost more than 2 million votes.
The Socialist Party (PSOE) has also lost more than 0.5 million votes in the local elections.
The Popular Party has won in 9 of 13 Autonomous Communities; however it has not
obtained an overall majority in any of them and therefore it will need parliamentary
support to be able to run governments. In 2011, it had an absolute majority in most of
the Autonomous Communities: Baleares, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León,
Comunidad Valenciana, La Rioja, Madrid and Murcia.
Podemos and Ciudadanos, the two new political parties, have obtained parliamentary
representation in most of the regional parliaments, as well as in the largest Spanish cities.
They will play a key role within the next weeks.
PODEMOS has won in Barcelona and it is the second political party in the city of Madrid.
Political agreements will be needed in all Autonomous Communities, as well as in the
most important Spanish cities.
Political agreements among left-wing parties are undoubtedly an option, notably in the
city of Madrid.
In the majority of the regional parliaments there will be five or more political parties with
parliamentary representation. Balances of power and the so called “variable geometry”
will be critical.
It is foreseeable that the regional parliaments, due to their fragmentation, will have a very
interesting environment for “corporate affairs strategies”. Such an environment increases
the importance of appropriate political analysis.
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
RESULTS IN SOME OF THE LARGEST AUTONOMOUS COMMUNITIES
Parliament of Madrid (129 seats)
2011
2015
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Unión
Progreso y Ciudadanos
Democracia
Popular Party
Socialist
Party
United Left
2011
72
36
13
8
0
0
2015
48
37
0
0
17
27
PODEMOS
Absolute majority: 65 seats
Parliament of Valencia (99 seats)
2011
2015
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Popular Party
Socialist
Party
United Left
2011
55
33
5
6
0
0
2015
31
23
0
19
13
13
Compromis Ciudadanos
Absolute majority: 50 seats
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
PODEMOS
RESULTS IN SOME OF THE LARGEST AUTONOMOUS COMMUNITIES
Parliament of Castilla y León (85 seats)
2011
2015
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Unión del
Ciudadan
PODEMOS United Left
Pueblo
os
Leonés
Popular
Party
Socialist
Party
United Left
2011
53
29
2
1
0
0
0
2015
42
25
0
1
5
10
1
Absolute majority: 43 seats
Parliament of Castilla-La Mancha
(49 seats in 2011 and 33 seats in 2015)
2011
2015
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Popular Party
Socialist Party
Ciudadanos
PODEMOS
2011
25
24
0
0
2015
16
14
0
3
Absolute majority: 17 seats
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
RESULTS IN THE FOUR LARGEST CITIES
Madrid City Council (57 seats)
2011
2015
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Popular Party Socialist Party
United Left
Unión
Progreso y
Democracia
Ciudadanos
PODEMOS
2011
31
15
6
5
0
0
2015
21
9
0
0
7
20
Absolute majority: 29 seats
Barcelona City Council (41 seats)
2011
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2015
Esquerra
Convergèn
Ciudadano
PODEMOS
Repúblican
cia i Unió
s
a
Popular
Party
Socialist
Party
CUP
2011
8
11
0
15
2
0
0
2015
3
4
3
10
5
5
11
Absolute majority: 21 seats
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
RESULTS IN THE FOUR LARGEST CITIES
Valencia City Council (33 seats)
2011
2015
25
20
15
10
5
0
Popular Party Socialist Party United Left
Compromis
Ciudadanos
PODEMOS
2011
20
8
2
3
0
0
2015
10
5
0
9
6
3
Absolute majority: 17 seats
Sevilla City Council
(33 seats in 2011 and 31 in 2015)
2011
2015
25
20
15
10
5
0
Popular Party
Socialist Party
United Left
Ciudadanos
PODEMOS
2011
20
11
2
0
0
2015
12
11
2
3
3
Absolute majority: 16 seats
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
LOCAL ELECTIONS IN SPAIN, MAY 24th, 2015
Overall Results
2011
9.000.000
8.000.000
7.000.000
6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
3.000.000
2.000.000
1.000.000
0
2015
Socialist
Party
Unión
Convergè Progreso
PODEMO Ciudadan
United Left
ncia i
y
S
os
Democrac
Unió
ia
2011 8.474.03
6.276.08
1.424.11
778.679
465.125
0
0
2015 6.025.55
5.581.45
1.054.30
667.683
231.410
0
1.459.81
Popular
Party
Important Notes:
2015 results are the ones that have been displayed by the official website of the Ministry of Interior.
Official scrutiny will be available within a few days.
PODEMOS has used different names and political parties in each local entity; therefore it is not
possible to provide its global results.
Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es
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Calle Caracas, 6 – 28010 Madrid
España – T +34 91 702 47 37
www.vinces.es