Un perfil del analfabetismo en el Ecuador

Anuncio
6HFUHWDUtD7pFQLFDGHO)UHQWH6RFLDO
6,,6( 6LVWHPD,QWHJUDGRGH,QGLFDGRUHV6RFLDOHVGHO(FXDGRU
%255$'253$5$&20(17$5,26
8QSHUILOGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRHQHO(FXDGRU
VXVGHWHUPLQDQWHV\VXLPSDFWRHQORVLQJUHVRVODERUDOHV
-XDQ3RQFH-DUUtQ
4XLWR
)HEUHUR
,QWURGXFFLyQ
8QD GH ODV PHWDV SODQWHDGDV SRU HO QXHYR JRELHUQR HQ VX 3URJUDPD (FRQyPLFR \ GH
'HVDUUROOR +XPDQR HV OD GLVPLQXFLyQ GH OD WDVD GH DQDOIDEHWLVPR GHO DO 3DUD
SRGHUFXPSOLUFRQHVWDPHWDHVQHFHVDULRFRQWDUFRQFLHUWRVHOHPHQWRVTXHSHUPLWDQGHILQLU
OD SROtWLFD D DSOLFDUVH HQ HO FRPEDWH DO DQDOIDEHWLVPR 8QR GH HVWRV HOHPHQWRV HV SRGHU
WHQHU XQ SHUILO GHO DQDOIDEHWLVPR TXLpQHV VRQ HQ GyQGH HVWiQ XELFDGRV ORV DQDOIDEHWRV
FXiOHV VRQ VXV SULQFLSDOHV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV DVt FRPR VDEHU FXiOHV VRQ ORV SULQFLSDOHV
HOHPHQWRV YLQFXODGRV FRQ HVWD FRQGLFLyQ \ FXDO VHUtD HO EHQHILFLR GH XQD SROtWLFD GH
DOIDEHWL]DFLyQHQHO(FXDGRU
(VWHHVWXGLRLQWHQWDGDUUHVSXHVWDDHVWRVLQWHUURJDQWHV\VHRUJDQL]DFRPRVLJXH(QXQD
SULPHUD SDUWH VH SUHVHQWD XQD GHVFULSFLyQ JHQHUDO GHO SUREOHPD LQFOX\HQGR FLHUWRV
HOHPHQWRVKLVWyULFRVSDUDFRQWH[WXDOL]DUORDVtFRPRODSUHVHQWDFLyQGHPDSDVTXHSHUPLWDQ
XELFDU D ORV FDQWRQHV FRQ PiV DOWD LQFLGHQFLD GH DQDOIDEHWLVPR \ PD\RU FRQWULEXFLyQ DO
WRWDOGHDQDOIDEHWRVGHOSDtV
(Q OD VHJXQGD SDUWH VH SUHVHQWDQ FLHUWRV FUXFHV GH YDULDEOHV SDUD WUDWDU GH KDFHU XQD
FDUDFWHUL]DFLyQGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRSDUDGLIHUHQWHVJUXSRVHVSHFtILFRVGHSREODFLyQ
(QODWHUFHUDSDUWHVHLQFOX\HXQPRGHORHFRQRPpWULFRSDUDWHQHUXQLGHDGHORVSULQFLSDOHV
GHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRDVtFRPRGHVXLPSDFWRHQORVLQJUHVRV \HQHOPHUFDGR
ODERUDO
$OILQDOVHSUHVHQWDQFLHUWDVFRQFOXVLRQHV\UHFRPHQGDFLRQHVGHSROtWLFD
(YROXFLyQKLVWyULFDGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR\GLVSDULGDGHVUHJLRQDOHV
8QRGHORVREMHWLYRVIXQGDPHQWDOHVGHODUHIRUPDGHOVLVWHPDHGXFDWLYRHFXDWRULDQRGHORV
DxRV VHVHQWD IXH OD H[SDQVLyQ GH OD FREHUWXUD FRQ HO ILQ GH DOFDQ]DU DO PHQRV OD
XQLYHUVDOL]DFLyQ GH OD FREHUWXUD SULPDULD -XQWR FRQ HOOR VH SHUVHJXtD OD GLVPLQXFLyQ GHO
SRUFHQWDMH GH DQDOIDEHWRV DVt FRPR OD JHQHUDFLyQ GH ORV FXDGURV WpFQLFRV TXH UHTXHUtD HO
SURFHVRGHLQGXVWULDOL]DFLyQTXHVHSUHWHQGtDLQVWDXUDUHQHOSDtV
&RQ EDVH HQ OR DQWHULRU VH WRUQD LPSRUWDQWH UHDOL]DU XQD HYDOXDFLyQ GH OD HYROXFLyQ GHO
QLYHOGHDQDOIDEHWLVPR$HVWHUHVSHFWRHOVLVWHPDHGXFDWLYRHFXDWRULDQRPXHVWUDDOJXQRV
ORJURVVLJQLILFDWLYRV/DWDVDGHVFLHQGHGHOHQDOHQ*UiILFR
*UiILFR
(FXDGRUHYROXFLyQKLVWyULFDGHODQ DOIDEHWLVPR
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHODSREODFLyQGHDxRV\PiV
3RUFHQWDMH
$xR
)XHQWH6,,6(FRQEDVHHQ&HQVRVGH3REODFLyQ\9LYLHQGD\
,1(&
&RPRUHVXOWDGRKR\HQGtDHO(FXDGRUVHHQFXHQWUDHQXQDVLWXDFLyQDFHSWDEOHFRQUHODFLyQ
DRWURVSDtVHVGH$PpULFD/DWLQD&XDGUR6LQHPEDUJRODUHGXFFLyQGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
QRPDQWLHQHODPLVPDLQWHQVLGDGGXUDQWHODV~OWLPDVGpFDGDV(OSHUtRGRIXHHO
PiVGLQiPLFRHOQ~PHURGHDQDOIDEHWRVGLVPLQX\yDXQULWPRGHOSRUDxRKD\TXH
UHFRUGDUTXHVHWUDWyGHORVDxRVGHDXJHGHODH[SDQVLyQGHODFREHUWXUDHGXFDWLYD(QOD
GpFDGDGHHODQDOIDEHWLVPRVHUHGXMRDODQXDO\HQORVDxRVDO/D
GHVDFHOHUDFLyQGHOFRPEDWHDODQDOIDEHWLVPRSXHGHH[SOLFDUVHSRUXQODGRSRUODGLILFXOWDG
GHDOIDEHWL]DUDODVSHUVRQDVGHPD\RUHGDG\SRURWURSRUODUHGXFFLyQGHOJDVWRS~EOLFR
HQHGXFDFLyQ\HOHPSREUHFLPLHQWRGHORVKRJDUHV
&XDGUR
(ODQDOIDEHWLVPRHQ$PpULFD/DWLQD
WDVDVSDUDODSREODFLyQGHDxRV\PiV
3DtV
$UJHQWLQD
%ROLYLD
%UDVLO
&KLOH
&RORPELD
(FXDGRU
7DVD
)XHQWH81(6&2 2WUR HOHPHQWR TXH PDWL]D ORV ORJURV GHO VLVWHPD HGXFDWLYR VRQ ODV GHVLJXDOGDGHV VRFLDOHV
TXHVH UHIOHMDQ HQVXV UHVXOWDGRV+D\ HQRUPHVGLVSDULGDGHV HQHOQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGH
ORV HFXDWRULDQRV (O PRGHOR HGXFDWLYR TXH VH LQLFLy HQ OD GpFDGD GH WXYR XQD
WHQGHQFLDDIDYRUHFHUDORVVHFWRUHVPHGLRV\DOWRVGHODSREODFLyQSDUWLFXODUPHQWHHQODV
FLXGDGHV /D SREODFLyQ UXUDO SREUH H LQGtJHQD IXH HQ JUDQ PHGLGD H[FOXLGD GH VXV
EHQHILFLRV 3DUD WHQHU XQD LGHD GH OR DQWHULRU D FRQWLQXDFLyQ VH SUHVHQWD OD WDVD GH
DQDOIDEHWLVPRSRUUHJLyQiUHD\VH[R
&XDGUR
7DVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRSRUUHJLyQiUHD\VH[R
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHOWRWDOGHDxRV\PiV
8UEDQR
5XUDO
+RPEUHV
0XMHUHV
6LHUUD
&RVWD
$PD]RQtD
3DtV
)XHQWH6,,6(FRQEDVHHQ&HQVRGH3REODFLyQ\9LYLHQGD,1(&
/DSURSRUFLyQGHSHUVRQDVTXHQRVDEHQOHHU\HVFULELUHQHOFDPSRHVWUHVYHFHVPD\RUTXH
HQ ODV FLXGDGHV \ UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH /D WDVD GH DQDOIDEHWLVPR HV PD\RU HQ ODV
PXMHUHV TXH HQ ORV KRPEUHV \ UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 3RU ~OWLPR OD $PD]RQtD \ OD
6LHUUDWLHQHQPD\RUSURSRUFLyQGHDQDOIDEHWRVTXHOD&RVWD
8QDILJXUDPiVGHWDOODGDGHODVGLVSDULGDGHVUHJLRQDOHVVHSXHGHYHUHQHOVLJXLHQWHPDSD
HQHOTXHVHSUHVHQWDDQLYHOFDQWRQDOODWDVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPR
0DSD
7DVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRDQLYHOFDQWRQDO
SRUFHQWDMHGHSREODFLyQGHDxRV\PiV
(Q HVWH PDSD VH SXHGH YHU TXH ORV FDQWRQHV FRQ PD\RU LQFLGHQFLD GH DQDOIDEHWLVPR VH
HQFXHQWUDQ HQ OD VLHUUD QRUWH VLHUUD FHQWUDO \ (VPHUDOGDV 6XVFDO \ 'pOHJ &DxDU &ROWD
*XDPRWH $ODXVt \ &KXQFKL &KLPERUD]R 6LJFKRV 3XMLOt \ 6DTXLVLOt &RWRSD[L
*XDUDQGD %ROLYDU 2WDYDOR \ &RWDFDFKL ,PEDEXUD \ (OR\ $OIDUR (VPHUDOGDV (Q HO
DQH[RVHSUHVHQWDXQFXDGURFRQODWDVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRSDUDFDGDFDQWyQ
(QWpUPLQRVGHSROtWLFDSDUDODHUUDGLFDFLyQGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRHVVXPDPHQWH~WLOHVWXGLDUOD
FRQWULEXFLyQHQHVWHFDVRGHFDGDFDQWyQDO DQDOIDEHWLVPRQDFLRQDO6HWUDWDGHXELFDUHQ
GRQGHVHHQFXHQWUDQOD PD\RU FDQWLGDGGHDQDOIDEHWRVUHVSHFWRGHOWRWDOGHDQDOIDEHWRVD
QLYHOQDFLRQDO(VWRVHSXHGHDSUHFLDUHQHOVLJXLHQWHPDSD
0DSD
&RQWULEXFLyQDODQDOIDEHWLVPRWRWDOSRUSDUWHGH FDGDFDQWyQ
SRUFHQWDMHGHOWRWDOGHDQDOIDEHWRV
&RPRVHSXHGHYHUHQHOPDSDORVFDQWRQHVTXHPiVFRQWULEX\HQDOWRWDOGHDQDOIDEHWRV
GHOSDtVVRQ4XLWR*XD\DTXLO\&XHQFD(QHVWRVFDQWRQHVVHHQFXHQWUDDSUR[LPDGDPHQWH
HO GHORVDQDOIDEHWRVGHO(FXDGRU(QWpUPLQRVJHQHUDOHVVHSXHGHGHFLUTXHODVPiV
DOWDV FRQWULEXFLRQHV VH HQFXHQWUDQ HQ ODV FDSLWDOHV GH SURYLQFLD FRPR 4XLWR *XD\DTXLO
&XHQFD$PEDWR5LREDPED/DWDFXQJD*XDUDQGD\3RUWRYLHMR\FLHUWRVFDQWRQHVJUDQGHV
FRPR6DQWR'RPLQJR2WDYDOR&ROWD3XMLOt\0DQWD(QWpUPLQRVGHSROtWLFDHVWRVLJQLILFD
TXHORVSURJUDPDVGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQGHEHUtDQSULRUL]DUHVWDVFLXGDGHVSDUDVXHMHFXFLyQ(Q
HODQH[RVHSUHVHQWDODFRQWULEXFLyQGHFDGDFDQWyQDODQDOIDEHWLVPRQDFLRQDO
(WQLFLGDG\DQDOIDEHWLVPR
/DPD\RUGHVYHQWDMDUHVSHFWRDODQDOIDEHWLVPRODHQFRQWUDPRVHQWUHODSREODFLyQLQGtJHQD HOGHHOODHVDQDOIDEHWD<HOPD\RUUHWUDVRHVVLQGXGDHOGHODVPXMHUHVLQGtJHQDV
PiVGHXQWHUFLRGHHOODVQRKDDSUHQGLGRD~QDOHHU\HVFULELU/RVDIURHFXDWRULDQRV
SRUVXSDUWHWLHQHQXQDVLWXDFLyQFHUFDQDDOSURPHGLRQDFLRQDO9HUJUiILFR
3DUDGHILQLUHWQLFLGDGVHXVyHOFULWHULRGHDXWRGHILQLFLyQ
*UiILFR
(WQLFLGDG\DQDOIDEHWLVPR
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHODSREODFLyQGHDxRV\PiVGHFDGDJUXSR
1
R
LQ
Gt
JH
QD
V
,Q
Gt
+
JH
RP
QD
EU
V
HV
,Q
Gt
JH
0
QD
XM
V
HU
HV
LQ
Gt
1
JH
R
QD
$I
V
UR
HF
XD
WR
ULD
QR
$I
V
UR
+
HF
RP
X
DW
EU
RU
HV
LD
D
QR
IUR
V
HF
0
X
DW
XM
HU
RU
HV
LD
QR
D
IUR
V
HF
XD
WR
ULD
QD
V
V
GR
7R
3RUFHQWDMH
)XHQWH6,,6(FRQEDVHHQ&HQVRGH3REODFLyQ\9LYLHQGD,1(&
$QDOIDEHWLVPR\SREUH]D
&RPR \D VH PHQFLRQy RWUR GH ORV JUXSRV IXHUWHPHQWH DIHFWDGRV SRU HO DQDOIDEHWLVPR VRQ
ORV SREUHV (Q HVWH FDVR VH GHILQLy OD SREUH]D XWLOL]DQGR HO PpWRGR GH ODV QHFHVLGDGHV
EiVLFDV LQVDWLVIHFKDV 'H DFXHUGR FRQ HO FULWHULR GH OD &RPXQLGDG $QGLQD XQ KRJDU HV
FRQVLGHUDGRFRPRSREUHVLWLHQHDOPHQRVXQDGHODVVLJXLHQWHVIDOHQFLDV
6X YLYLHQGD WLHQH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV ItVLFDV LQDGHFXDGDV 6H WUDWD GH DTXHOODV YLYLHQGDV
LQDSURSLDGDVSDUDHODORMDPLHQWRKXPDQRFRQSDUWHH[WHULRUGHODWDWHODFDUWyQHVWHUD
FDxDSOiVWLFRXRWURVPDWHULDOHVSUHFDULRVyFRQSLVRGHWLHUUD
6XYLYLHQGDQRFXHQWDFRQVHUYLFLRVDGHFXDGRV6LQFRQH[LyQDDFXHGXFWRVRWXEHUtD R
VLQVDQLWDULRFRQHFWDGRDDOFDQWDULOODGRRDSR]RVpSWLFR
+RJDUHV FRQ DOWD GHSHQGHQFLD HFRQyPLFD 6RQ DTXHOORV FRQ PiV GH PLHPEURV SRU
SHUVRQDRFXSDGR\TXHHOMHIHDGHKRJDUKXELHUDDSUREDGRFRPRPi[LPRGRVDxRVGH
HGXFDFLyQSULPDULD
+RJDUHV FRQ QLxRV TXH QR DVLVWHQ D OD HVFXHOD $TXHOORV FRQ QLxRV GH D DxRV GH
HGDGTXHQRDVLVWHQDDOJ~QHVWDEOHFLPLHQWRHVFRODU
+RJDUHV FRQ KDFLQDPLHQWR FUtWLFR (QWHQGLGR FRPR OD H[LVWHQFLD GH PiV GH WUHV
SHUVRQDVHQSURPHGLRSRUFXDUWRXWLOL]DGRSDUDGRUPLU
'H DFXHUGR FRQ HVWD GHILQLFLyQ HQ OD VLJXLHQWH WDEOD VH SXHGHQ YHU ODV WDVDV GH
DQDOIDEHWLVPRSRUiUHD\VH[R
&XDGUR
7DVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRSRUUHJLyQiUHD\VH[R
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHOWRWDOGHDxRV\PiV
&LXGDG
3 RE UHV GH
ODF LXGDG
1RSRE UHV
GHODF LXGDG
&DP SR
3 RE UHV GHO
F DP SR
1RSRE UHV
GHOF DP SR
7 RWDO
/RVSREUHVGHOFDPSRWLHQHQXQDLQFLGHQFLDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRGHHQWDQWRTXHHQHO
RWURH[WUHPRORVQRSREUHVGHODFLXGDGWLHQHQXQDWDVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRGHO(VWRGD
FXHQWD GH ODV GLVSDULGDGHV QDFLRQDOHV /R TXH OODPD OD DWHQFLyQ VRQ ODV GHVLJXDOGDGHV DO
LQWHULRU GHO FDPSR HQ HVWH FDVR ORV QR SREUHV WLHQHQ XQD WDVD GH DQDOIDEHWLVPR GH SXQWRVPHQRUTXHODGHORVSREUHV
$QDOIDEHWLVPR\JUXSRVGHHGDG
)LQDOPHQWH H[LVWHQ WDPELpQ GLIHUHQFLDV JHQHUDFLRQDOHV /D SURSRUFLyQ PiV DOWD GH
DQDOIDEHWRVVHREVHUYDHQWUHORVPD\RUHVGHDxRV\ODPiVEDMDHQWUHORVPHQRUHVGH
DxRV (Q RWUDV SDODEUDV HO DQDOIDEHWLVPR VLJXH VLHQGR XQD PXHVWUD GH ODV GHILFLHQFLDV
KLVWyULFDV \ DFWXDOHV GHO VLVWHPD HGXFDWLYR QDFLRQDO HQ FXDQWR D JDUDQWL]DU XQD PtQLPD
HGXFDFLyQ D WRGRV ORV HFXDWRULDQRV HV WDPELpQ XQ LQGLFDGRU GH ORV UHWRV TXH HQIUHQWD HO
SDtVHQHOGHVDUUROORGHVXFDSLWDOKXPDQR9HUFXDGUR
&XDGUR
7DVDGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRSRUJUXSRVGHHGDGVH[R\iUHD
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHOWRWDOGHSHUVRQDV GHFDGDJUXSR
*UXSRGHHGDG
7RGRV &RQWULE +RPEUHV 0XMHUHV 8UEDQR
5XUDO
(QWUH\DxRV
(QWUH\DxRV
(QWUH\DxRV
(QWUH\DxRV
(QWUH\ DxRV
(QWUH\DxRV
0iVGHDxRV
7RWDO
)XHQWH6,,6(FRQEDVHHQ&HQVRGH3REODFLyQ\9LYLHQGD,1(&
(Q WRGRV ORV FDVRV OD VLWXDFLyQ GH ODV PXMHUHV HV PiV JUDYH TXH OD GH ORV KRPEUHV \ HO
FDPSRHVWiSHRUTXHODFLXGDG
(Q WpUPLQRV GH SROtWLFD FRPR VH PHQFLRQy DUULED HV LPSRUWDQWH WHQHU XQD LGHD GH OD
FRQWULEXFLyQ DO DQDOIDEHWLVPR WRWDO SRU SDUWH GH FDGD JUXSR GH HGDG 'HVGH HVWH SXQWR GH
YLVWD OR SULPHUR TXH OODPD OD DWHQFLyQ HV TXH HQ HO JUXSR GH D DxRV GH HGDG VH
HQFXHQWUD HO GHO WRWDO GH DQDOIDEHWRV PLHQWUDV TXH HQ HO JUXSR GH DxRV \ PiV VH
HQFXHQWUDWDQVRORHO3RU~OWLPRHQWUHHOJUXSRGH\DxRVVHHQFXHQWUDHO
/RDQWHULRUSHUPLWHFRQFOXLUTXHXQSURJUDPDGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQQRQHFHVDULDPHQWHGHEHUtD
FRQFHQWUDUVHHQODSREODFLyQDGXOWDHVSHFtILFDPHQWHHQORVDQFLDQRVVLQRTXHVHGHEHUtD
WDPELpQWRPDUHQFXHQWDDORVMyYHQHVHQHVSHFLDODOJUXSRGHDDxRVGHHGDG
8QR GH ORV IDFWRUHV TXH D\XGD D HQWHQGHU HO DQDOIDEHWLVPR IXWXUR HV HO QR LQJUHVR D OD
HVFXHOD GH ORV QLxRV HQ OD DFWXDOLGDG 3DUD HOOR HV ~WLO DQDOL]DU OD WDVD GH QR PDWUtFXOD
GHILQLGD FRPR HO SRUFHQWDMH GH QLxRV GH D DxRV TXH QR HVWiQ PDWULFXODGRV HQ OD
HVFXHOD 'H LJXDO PDQHUD TXH HQ HO FDVR GHO DQDOIDEHWLVPR HV ~WLO WDQWR HO DQiOLVLV GH OD
LQFLGHQFLD FRPR OD FRQWULEXFLyQ D OD QR PDWUtFXOD WRWDO (Q ORV VLJXLHQWHV PDSDV VH
SUHVHQWDQHVWDVGRVFDWHJRUtDVDQLYHOFDQWRQDO
0DSD
7DVDGHQRPDWUtFXODDQLYHOFDQWRQDO
SRUFHQWDMHUHVSHFWRGHOWRWDOGHQLxRVGHDDxRV
(QHVWHPDSDVHSXHGHYHUTXHORVFDQWRQHVFRQPD\RUWDVDGHQRPDWUtFXODVHHQFXHQWUDQ
SULQFLSDOPHQWHHQOD&RVWD\ VRQ3HGHUQDOHV-DPD)ODYLR$OIDUR\3LFKLQFKD0DQDEt
(OR\$OIDUR5tR9HUGH6DQ/RUHQ]R0XLVQH\4XLQLQGp(VPHUDOGDV/DV*RORQGULQDV
0DQJD GHO &XUD \ OD &RQFRUGLD =RQDV QR GHOLPLWDGDV 3HGUR 9LFHQWH 0DOGRQDGR
3LFKLQFKD&ROLPHV\(O(PSDOPH*XD\DV3DOHQTXH\9DOHQFLD/RV5tRV(QHODQH[R
VHSUHVHQWDODWDVDGHQRPDWUtFXODSDUDFDGDFDQWyQ
0DSD
&RQWULEXFLyQDOD QRPDWUtFXODWRWDOSRUSDUWHGHFDGDFDQWyQ
SRUFHQWDMHGHOWRWDOGHQRPDWULFXODGRV
'HO WRWDO GH QR PDWULFXODGRV HO VH HQFXHQWUD HQ *XD\DTXLO \ HO VH HQFXHQWUD HQ
4XLWR 2WURV FDQWRQHV TXH FRQWULEX\HQ DOWDPHQWH D OD QR PDWUtFXOD VRQ 6DQWR 'RPLQJR \
&XHQFD 7DPELpQ WLHQHQ DOWDV FRQWULEXFLRQHV 3RUWRYLHMR &KRQH 3HGHUQDOHV \ 0DQWD
0DQDEt4XLQLGp \(VPHUDOGDV(VPHUDOGDV \ RWURVFDQWRQHVFRPR $PEDWR4XHYHGR
%DEDKR\R 0DFKDOD 'XUiQ \ 5LREDPED 3URJUDPDV GH LQFHQWLYR D OD PDWULFXODFLyQ
SULPDULDGHEHUtDQSULRUL]DUHVWRVFDQWRQHV(QHODQH[RVHSUHVHQWDODFRQWULEXFLyQDODQR
PDWUtFXODSRUFDGDFDQWyQ
/RVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR\VXLPSDFWRHQORVLQJUHVRVODERUDOHV
(OPRGHORWHyULFR
(OHQIRTXHWHyULFRGHWUiVGHHVWHDQiOLVLVHVOD7HRUtDGH&DSLWDO+XPDQR'HDFXHUGRDHVWH
HQIRTXH ORV LQGLYLGXRV DGTXLHUHQ FRQRFLPLHQWRV \ GHVWUH]DV D WUDYpV GH OD HGXFDFLyQ \ OD
H[SHULHQFLD%HFNHU\0LQFHU/RVLQGLYLGXRVTXHLQYLHUWHQHQFDSLWDOKXPDQR
VRQ OXHJR GH XQ WLHPSR UHFRPSHQVDGRV FRQ LQJUHVRV PiV DOWRV HQ HO PHUFDGR ODERUDO
'HVGHHVWHSXQWRGHYLVWDORVKRJDUHVLQYHUWLUiQHQHGXFDFLyQKDVWDHOSXQWRHQHOFXDOHO
EHQHILFLRPDUJLQDOGHXQDxRDGLFLRQDOGHHGXFDFLyQVHDLJXDODOFRVWRPDUJLQDO GHXQDxR
DGLFLRQDOGHHVFRODULGDG /RV LQJUHVRV VRQ GHWHUPLQDGRV SRU OD HGXFDFLyQ OD H[SHULHQFLD \ RWUDV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV
LQGLYLGXDOHVGHOKRJDU\GHODFRPXQLGDG
(L
6L
( , L + L &L 6 , L + L &L (QGRQGH (L VRQORVLQJUHVRVGHOLQGLYLGXRL\ 6L_ HVODRIHUWDODERUDOGHOLQGLYLGXRL(QODV
YDULDEOHVGHSHQGLHQWHVVHWLHQHD ,TXHHVXQYHFWRUGHFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVLQGLYLGXDOHVFRPR
HGDGHGDGDOFXDGUDGRVH[RQLYHOHGXFDWLYRGHOLQGLYLGXR\GHVXVSDGUHV+HVXQYHFWRU
GH FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GHO KRJDU FRPR HO QLYHO GH FRQVXPR GHO KRJDU \ & HV XQ YHFWRU GH
FDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHODFRPXQLGDG
(ODOIDEHWLVPRVHGHWHUPLQDSRUHOVLJXLHQWHPRGHOR
$L
$ , L + L &L (QGRQGHODVYDULDEOHVLQGHSHQGLHQWHVVRQVLPLODUHVDODHFXDFLyQGHLQJUHVRV(QHOFDVRGH
ODV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV GH OD FRPXQLGDG VH GHFLGLy LQFOXLU YDULDEOHV UHODFLRQDGDV FRQ OD RIHUWD
GHOVLVWHPDHVFRODUSDUDYHUVXLPSDFWRHQODDOIDEHWL]DFLyQ
/RVGDWRV
/RV GDWRV XWLOL]DGRV SDUD HVWD SDUWH SURYLHQHQ GH OD (QFXHVWD GH &RQGLFLRQHV GH 9LGD GH
(&9DSOLFDGDSRUHO,QVWLWXWR(FXDWRULDQRGH(VWDGtVWLFD\&HQVRV,1(&/D
PXHVWUD IXH WRPDGD GXUDQWH ORV FXDWUR WULPHVWUHV GH FRQ XQ GLVHxR PXHVWUDO
HVWUDWLILFDGR\SROLHWiSLFR(QWRWDOVHFXHQWDFRQREVHUYDFLRQHVTXHUHSUHVHQWDQD
KRJDUHV 6H WUDWD GH XQD HQFXHVWD GHO WLSR GH (QFXHVWDV GH &RQGLFLRQHV GH 9LGD
DSR\DGDV SRU HO %DQFR 0XQGLDO HQ YDULRV SDtVHV HQ GHVDUUROOR 'H DTXt VH REWLHQH
LQIRUPDFLyQVREUHYDULDEOHVTXHSHUPLWHQFXDQWLILFDUHOQLYHOGHYLGDGHODVSHUVRQDVFRPR
(VWDSDUWHHVWiEDVDGDHQ%OXQFKDQG9HUQHU
$TXtKD\HOVXSXHVWR GHTXHHOGHFLVRUGHOKRJDUSRVHHLQIRUPDFLyQFRPSOHWD\TXHHOPHUFDGRGHFDSLWDOHV
HVSHUIHFWR(VWDVGRVUHVWULFFLRQHVVRQSRFRUHDOLVWDVSDUDSDtVHVHQGHVDUUROOR
HOFRQVXPRHOLQJUHVRHODFFHVRDVHUYLFLRVFRPRVDOXGHGXFDFLyQDOPXQGRODERUDODVt
FRPRYDULDEOHVUHODFLRQDGDVFRQODDOIDEHWL]DFLyQRQRGHODVSHUVRQDV
$GHPiV GH YDULDEOHV SURSLDV GH OD (&9 VH XWLOL]y YDULDEOHV SURYHQLHQWHV GHO 6LVWHPD
1DFLRQDOGH(VWDGtVWLFDV(GXFDWLYDV6,1(& \GHO&HQVR1DFLRQDOGHO0DJLVWHULR)LVFDO
(QORVGRVFDVRVODLQIRUPDFLyQHVDODxR'HODEDVHGHO6,1(&VHFDOFXODURQDOJXQDV
YDULDEOHVUHODFLRQDGDVFRQODFDOLGDGGHODVHVFXHODVDVtFRPRVXVUHFXUVRVWDQWRPDWHULDOHV
FRPR KXPDQRV /DV YDULDEOHV FDOFXODGDV VRQ $/8352) Q~PHUR GH DOXPQRV SRU
SURIHVRUSDUDSULPDULDHQORVSODQWHOHVS~EOLFRV$/8$8/ Q~PHURGHDOXPQRVSRUDXOD
HQODSULPDULDS~EOLFD$/83/$Q~PHURGHDOXPQRVSRUSODQWHOHQODSULPDULDS~EOLFD
(VWDV YDULDEOHV IXHURQ FDOFXODGDV D QLYHO SDUURTXLDO \ OXHJR IXHURQ MXQWDGDV FRQ OD (&9
PHGLDQWHXQHPSDUHMDPLHQWRGHFDVRV(QHVWHFDVR HOYDORUGHFDGDSDUURTXLDIXHDVLJQDGR
DWRGRVORVKRJDUHVGHHVDSDUURTXLD6LELHQORVGDWRVSDUURTXLDOHVVRQDOWDPHQWHDJUHJDGRV
HLJQRUDQODVGLIHUHQFLDVLQWUDSDUURTXLDOHVHVWDLQIRUPDFLyQHV~WLOSDUDSRGHUOOHYDUDFDER
XQDQiOLVLVPiVFRPSOHWRGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRWRPDQGRHQFXHQWDHOODGRGHODRIHUWD 'HO &HQVR GHO 0DJLVWHULR VH FDOFXODURQ ODV VLJXLHQWHV YDULDEOHV &$7(&2 FDWHJRUtD
HFRQyPLFD SURPHGLR GH ORV SURIHVRUHV GH SULPDULD S~EOLFD 81,9(5 SRUFHQWDMH GH
SURIHVRUHVFRQHGXFDFLyQVXSHULRUHQODSULPDULDS~EOLFD7,7'2SRUFHQWDMHGHGRFHQWHV
FRQ WtWXOR SHGDJyJLFR HQ OD SULPDULD ILVFDO \ 120%5$ SRUFHQWDMH GH GRFHQWHV GH
SULPDULD ILVFDO TXH WLHQHQ FRQWUDWR FRQ HO 0LQLVWHULR GH (GXFDFLyQ &RPR HQ HO FDVR
DQWHULRUpVWDVYDULDEOHVIXHURQFDOFXODGDVDQLYHOSDUURTXLDO\OXHJRIXHURQMXQWDGDVFRQOD
EDVH GH OD (&9 (Q HVWH FDVR VH WLHQHQ ODV PLVPDV YHQWDMDV \ GHVYHQWDMDV PHQFLRQDGDV
DUULED
6HOHFFLyQGHYDULDEOHVGHRIHUWDHVFRODU
'HVSXpVGHUHDOL]DUXQDQiOLVLVGHWHQLGRGHODVYDULDEOHVGHRIHUWDHGXFDWLYDREWHQLGDVGHO
6,1(&\GHO&HQVR'RFHQWHPHGLDQWHXQDQiOLVLVGHFRPSRQHQWHVSULQFLSDOHVVHGHFLGLy
LQFRUSRUDUHQHOPRGHORVODVVLJXLHQWHVYDULDEOHVGHRIHUWDODUHODFLyQDOXPQRVSRUDXODHO
SRUFHQWDMHGHSURIHVRUHVTXHWLHQHQ WtWXORGRFHQWHHOSRUFHQWDMHGHGRFHQWHVFRQIRUPDFLyQ
XQLYHUVLWDULD \HOSRUFHQWDMHGHGRFHQWHV FRQWUDWDGRVSRUHO0LQLVWHULRGH(GXFDFLyQ (Q
WRGRVORVFDVRVODVYDULDEOHVVHUHILHUHQDSULPDULDILVFDO 3UREOHPDVHFRQRPpWULFRV
/D PRGHOL]DFLyQ VH OOHYy D FDER HQ GRV SDUWHV SULPHUR VH UHDOL]y XQ DQiOLVLV GH ORV
GHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR\OXHJRVHUHDOL]yXQDDQiOLVLVGHOLQJUHVRODERUDO
(VLPSRUWDQWHWRPDUHQFXHQWDTXHHQHVWRVFDVRVFXDQGRORVUHJUHVRUHVLQFOX\HQYDULDEOHVFRQHOPLVPR
YDORUGHQWURGHORVJUXSRVHOLJQRUDUODDXWRFRUUHODFLyQGHORVHUURUHVDOLQWHULRUGHORVJUXSRVSXHGHFUHDU
SUREOHPDVFRQODLQIHUHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFD3RUHOORQXHVWUDVHVWLPDFLRQHVIXHURQFRUUHJLGRVSRUFRUUHODFLyQLQWUD
JUXSR
/RV GRFHQWHVGHHVFXHODVILVFDOHVGHO(FXDGRUVRQJHQHUDOPHQWHSDJDGRVSRUHO(VWDGRHFXDWRULDQR6LQ
HPEDUJRHOORVSXHGHQVHUFRQWUDWDGRVSRUHO0LQLVWHULRSRUODVUHVSHFWLYDVGLUHFFLRQHVSURYLQFLDOHVRSRU
ODVSURSLDVHVFXHODVRODVFRPXQLGDGHV(QORVGRVFDVRVHOTXHILQDQFLDHVHO(VWDGRORTXHFDPELDHVOD
HQWLGDGFRQWUDWDQWH
8QDSUHVHQWDFLyQPiVGHWDOODGDGHODVHOHFFLyQGHODVYDULDEOHVGH2IHUWDHVFRODUSDUDVHULQFOXLGDVHQORV
PRGHORVHFRQRPpWULFRVVHHQFXHQWUDHQ3RQFHHWDO
3DUD OD SULPHUD SDUWH VH XWLOL]y XQ SURELW \ VH UHDOL]y XQ WHVW HVWDGtVWLFR SDUD YHU VL VH
GHEHUtDXVDUXQVRORPRGHORDQLYHOQDFLRQDORPRGHORVGLVWLQWRVSDUDODV]RQDVXUEDQDV\
UXUDOHV3DUDHOORVHXVyXQWHVW;FXDGUDGR(QHVWHFDVRHOPRGHORVLQUHVWULFFLRQHVHV
3DUDODV]RQDVXUEDQDV
DQDOID D D [ D [ D [ H
3DUDODV]RQDVUXUDOHV
DQDOID O O [ O [ O [ H
0LHQWUDVTXHHOPRGHORFRQUHVWULFFLyQHV
DQDOID E E [ E [ E [ H
/DKLSyWHVLVQXODHV
+ 2 D O D O D O D /DGLVWULEXFLyQWHyULFDHV
F U O
OQ /U OQ /X 'RQGHUHVHOQ~PHURGHUHVWULFFLRQHV
/Q/UHVHOORJGHODYHURVLPLOLWXG GHOPRGHORFRQUHVWULFFLyQ
/Q/XHVHOORJGHODYHURVLPLOLWXGGHOPRGHORVLQUHVWULFFLyQ
(QHVWHFDVRORVYDORUHVIXHURQ
F F $O GH FRQILDQ]D HO YDORU WHyULFR HV F SRU WDQWR VH SXHGH UHFKD]DU OD
KLSyWHVLVQXOD/RFXDOVLJQLILFDTXHODUHVWULFFLyQQRHVYiOLGD\TXHGHEHUtDPRVXVDUGRV
PRGHORVGLIHUHQWHVXQRSDUDHOiUHDXUEDQD\RWURSDUDHOiUHDUXUDO
3DUD OD VHJXQGD SDUWH VH FRUULy XQ PRGHOR GH LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV (Q HVWH FDVR KD\ TXH
WRPDU HQ FXHQWD ODV VLJXLHQWHV REVHUYDFLRQHV PHWRGROyJLFDV FXDQGR VH WUDEDMD FRQ XQD
HQFXHVWDVXUJHQWUHVSULQFLSDOHVSUREOHPDVHQODHVWLPDFLyQGHORVVDODULRVFDGDXQRGHODV
FXDOHV VH YD D YHU HQ GHWDOOH HO GHQRPLQDGR VHVJR SRU VHOHFFLyQ OD HQGRJHQHLGDG \ ORV
HUURUHVGHPHGLFLyQ
(OVHVJRSRUVHOHFFLyQVHSURGXFHGHELGRDTXHHQODPXHVWUDVRORVHWRPDQHQFXHQWDORV
VDODULRVGHXQDSDUWHGHODSREODFLyQVHOHFFLRQDGDSDUDODPXHVWUDHVGHFLUGHDTXHOORVTXH
HVWiQDFWXDOPHQWHWUDEDMDQGR/DRPLVLyQGHODVXEPXHVWUDHVGHFLUGHORVLQGLYLGXRVTXH
QR HVWiQ DFWXDOPHQWH WUDEDMDQGR GLVWRUVLRQD OD HVWLPDFLyQ EDVDGD HQ OD VXEPXHVWUD GH
DTXHOORVTXHVtHVWiQWUDEDMDQGR
(O SUREOHPD GH HQGRJHQHLGDG VH SURGXFH SRUTXH ORV VDODULRV QR REVHUYDGRV QR VH KDOODQ
GLVWULEXLGRV DOHDWRULDPHQWH D OR ODUJR GH OD PXHVWUD SRU HO FRQWUDULR KD\ FLHUWDV
FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV LQGLYLGXDOHV IDPLOLDUHV \ VRFLRHFRQyPLFDV TXH REOLJDQ D XQD SHUVRQD D
WRPDUODGHFLVLyQGHWUDEDMDURQRFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVDOWDPHQWHFRUUHODFLRQDGDVFRQORVVDODULRV
QRREVHUYDGRV(QHVWHFDVRXVDU0tQLPRV&XDGUDGRV2UGLQDULRVSDUDODHVWLPDFLyQGHORV
LQJUHVRVSRGUtDWDPELpQJHQHUDUGLVWRUVLRQHV
3RU~OWLPRVHSXHGHQSUHVHQWDUHUURUHVGHPHGLFLyQTXHVHHQFXHQWUHQFRUUHODFLRQDGRVFRQ
DOJXQDRWUDYDULDEOH\SRUWDQWRQRWHQJDQXQFDUiFWHUDOHDWRULR
3DUD VROXFLRQDU HVWRV SUREOHPDV +HFNPDQ +HFNPDQ KD GHVDUUROODGR XQ
SURFHGLPLHQWRGHHVWLPDFLyQDOWHUQDWLYRTXHSHUPLWHREWHQHUUHVXOWDGRVQRVHVJDGRV(QHO
DSpQGLFHVHSUHVHQWDXQDGHVFULSFLyQGHWDOODGDGHOSURFHGLPLHQWRXWLOL]DGR
&RQEDVHHQORDQWHULRUHQODVHJXQGDSDUWHVHXWLOL]yXQ+HFNPDQSDUDDQDOL]DUHOLPSDFWR
GHODOIDEHWLVPRHQORVLQJUHVRVODERUDOHV
5HVXOWDGRV
/RVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
3DUDODHVWLPDFLyQGHORVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRVHXWLOL]DURQWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
GLIHUHQWHV(QODSULPHUDHVWLPDFLyQVyORVHLQFOX\HQYDULDEOHVGHOD(&9HQODVHJXQGD
DGHPiVGHODVYDULDEOHVGHOD(&9VHLQFOX\HQODVYDULDEOHVGHRIHUWDGHOVLVWHPDHVFRODU\
SRU ~OWLPR HQ OD WHUFHUD HVWLPDFLyQ VH UHDOL]D XQ FRUUHFFLyQ SRU PLJUDFLyQ LQWHUQD (O
SUREOHPD HV TXH OD LQIRUPDFLyQ VREUH RIHUWD GHO VLVWHPD HVFRODU GD FXHQWD GH ODV
FRQGLFLRQHV HVFRODUHV GH KR\ PLHQWUDV TXH HQ PXFKRV FDVRV GH OD PXHVWUD OR TXH SXGR
KDEHULQIOXLGRHQ ODGHFLVLyQGHLURQRDODHVFXHODVRQFRQGLFLRQHVGHKDFHWLHPSRDWUiV
(QVHJXQGROXJDUKD\ODRSFLyQGHTXHODSHUVRQDKD\DSDVDGRVXVDxRVGHHVFXHODHQXQD
SDUURTXLDGLVWLQWDDODTXHYLYHKR\5HVSHFWRDORSULPHURGHVYHQWDMRVDPHQWHQRVHWLHQH
LQIRUPDFLyQ D QLYHO SDUURTXLDO VREUH OD VLWXDFLyQ HVFRODU GH DxRV DWUiV SRU OR TXH VH
DVXPHTXHODVLWXDFLyQUHODWLYDHQWpUPLQRVFRPSDUDWLYRVHQWUHODVGLVWLQWDVSDUURTXLDVHV
OD PLVPD TXH KDFH WLHPSR DWUiV 5HVSHFWR DO VHJXQGR SUREOHPD GHVDIRUWXQDGDPHQWH OD
(&9QRUHSRUWDODSDUURTXLDGHUHVLGHQFLDDQWHULRUSRUORTXHSDUDDQDOL]DUODUREXVWH]GH
ORVUHVXOWDGRVVHFRUULyXQPRGHORVRORSDUDDTXHOORVFDVRVHQTXHVLHPSUHKDQYLYLGRHQOD
PLVPDSDUURTXLD
/RVUHVXOWDGRVGHODVHVWLPDFLRQHVVHSXHGHQYHUHQHOVLJXLHQWHFXDGUR
&XDGUR
0RGHORSURELWSDUDORVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
$UHDXUEDQD
9DULDEOHV(&9
G\G[
/RJDULWPRFRQVXPR
6H[R
(GDG
(GDGDOFXDGUDGR
(VFRODULGDGMHIH
(VFRODULGDGFyQ\XJH
4XLWR
*XD\DTXLO
&LXGDGSURYLQFLDO
&LXGDGDUWHVDQDO
5HJLyQ
$OXPQRDXOD
3URIHVRUHVFRQWtWXORGRFHQWH
3URIHVRUHVFRQQLYHOVXSHULRU
3URIHVRUHVFRQQRPEUDPLHQWR0(&
3!_W_
&RQYDULDEOHVRIHUWD
G\G[
3!_W_
&RUUHFFLyQSRUPLJUDFLyQ
G\G[
3!_W_
6HUHSRUWDHOHIHFWRPDUJLQDOHQODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRDQWHXQFDPELRHQXQDXQLGDGHQ
ODVYDULDEOHVH[SOLFDWLYDV/DVHVWLPDFLRQHVIXHURQFRUUHJLGDVSRUKHWHURVFHGDVWLFLGDGDVtFRPRSRU
GLVHxRPXHVWUDO
&RPRHUDGHHVSHUDUVHHOQLYHOGHFRQVXPRWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQLQYHUVDFRQHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
/RDQWHULRUVLJQLILFDTXHSHUVRQDVFRQPD\RUQLYHOGHFRQVXPRWLHQHQPHQRUSUREDELOLGDG
GH VHU DQDOIDEHWRV HQ WDQWR TXH ORV SREUHV WLHQHQ PD\RU SUREDELOLGDG (VWH SDUiPHWUR HV
VLJQLILFDWLYRHQWRGDVODVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
(O VHU PXMHU LQFUHPHQWD OD SUREDELOLGDG GH VHU DQDOIDEHWD HQ XQ OR FXDO GD FXHQWD GH
XQDEUHFKDHQORVQLYHOHVGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQHQWUHKRPEUHV\PXMHUHV/DHGDGVHHQFXHQWUD
SRVLWLYDPHQWHUHODFLRQDGDFRQHODQDOIDEHWLVPRORDQWHULRUVLJQLILFDTXHSHUVRQDVGHPD\RU
HGDGWLHQHQPD\RUSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRV(OFRHILFLHQWHGHODHGDGDOFXDGUDGRQR
HVVLJQLILFDWLYRORTXHLQGLFDTXHODUHODFLyQHQWUHDQDOIDEHWLVPR \HGDGHVOLQHDO8QDxR
DGLFLRQDOGHHGDGLQFUHPHQWDODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRHQ(VWRH[SUHVDSRU
RWUR ODGR XQD PHMRUD HQ ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH DFFHVR DO VLVWHPD HGXFDWLYR HQ ODV QXHYDV
JHQHUDFLRQHV
(OQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGHOMHIHDGHOKRJDU\GHVXFyQ\XJHWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQLQYHUVDFRQ
HODQDOIDEHWLVPR8QDxRDGLFLRQDOHQHOQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGHOMHIHDGHOKRJDURGHVX
FyQ\XJH UHGXFH OD SUREDELOLGDG GH VHU DQDOIDEHWR HQ XQ /RV SDUiPHWURV VRQ
VLJQLILFDWLYRVHQODVWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
6H LQFOX\HURQ YDULDEOHV GH LGHQWLILFDFLyQ JHRJUiILFD GH DFXHUGR D ORV GRPLQLRV GH OD
HQFXHVWD/DFDWHJRUtDGHUHIHUHQFLDSDUDWRGDVHVWDVYDULDEOHVVRQODVFLXGDGHVDJUtFRODV
'H WRGDV HOODV OD ~QLFD TXH HV HVWDGtVWLFDPHQWH VLJQLILFDWLYD HV *XD\DTXLO /R DQWHULRU
VLJQLILFD TXH ODV SHUVRQDV TXH YLYHQ HQ *XD\DTXLO WLHQHQ HQ SURPHGLR PHQRU
SUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWDVTXHODVSHUVRQDVTXHYLYHQHQODVFLXGDGHVDJUtFRODV(VWH
SDUiPHWURHVVLJQLILFDWLYRHQODVWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
)LQDOPHQWH OD YDULDEOH UHJLyQ HV VLJQLILFDWLYD HQ ODV GRV SULPHUDV HVSHFLILFDFLRQHV \ GHMD
GHVHUORFXDQGRVHLQWURGXFHODFRUUHFFLyQSRUPLJUDFLyQ
5HVSHFWR D ODV YDULDEOHV GH RIHUWD GHO VLVWHPD HVFRODU VH REVHUYD TXH OD ~QLFD YDULDEOH
VLJQLILFDWLYDHVHOSRUFHQWDMHGHSURIHVRUHVFRQWtWXORGRFHQWH (QHVWHFDVRXQLQFUHPHQWR
GHXQSXQWRHQHOSRUFHQWDMHGHGRFHQWHVFRQWtWXORGRFHQWHGLVPLQXLUiODSUREDELOLGDGGH
VHUDQDOIDEHWRHQXQ/RTXHOODPDODDWHQFLyQHVTXHODPDJQLWXGGHOLPSDFWRGHHVWD
YDULDEOH HV PXFKR PD\RU TXH HQ HO FDVR GH ODV YDULDEOHV GHO LQGLYLGXR \ GHO KRJDU /R
DQWHULRU HVWDUtD FRQILUPDQGR OD LPSRUWDQFLD GH PDQWHQHU DGHFXDGRV QLYHOHV GH RIHUWD GH
GRFHQWHV\GHLQVXPRVSDUDODHGXFDFLyQ
(QODVLJXLHQWHWDEODVHSUHVHQWDQORVUHVXOWDGRVSDUDHOFDPSR
&XDGUR
0RGHORSURELWSDUDORVGHWHUPLQDQWHVGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
$UHDUXUDO
G\G[
/RJDULWPRFRQVXPR
6H[R
(GDG
9DULDEOHV(&9
3!_W_
$OXPQRDXOD
3URIHVRUHV FRQWtWXORGRFHQWH
3URIHVRUHVFRQQLYHOVXSHULRU
3URIHVRUHVFRQQRPEUDPLHQWR0(&
3!_W_
(VFRODULGDGFyQ\XJH
,QGtJHQD
&RUUHFFLyQSRUPLJUDFLyQ
G\G[
5HJLyQ
3!_W_
(GDGDOFXDGUDGR
(VFRODULGDGMHIH
&RQYDULDEOHVRIHUWD
G\G[
6HUHSRUWDHOHIHFWRPDUJLQDOHQODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUD QDOIDEHWRDQWHXQFDPELRHQXQDXQLGDGGH
ODVYDULDEOHVH[SOLFDWLYDV/DVHVWLPDFLRQHVIXHURQFRUUHJLGDVSRUKHWHURFHGDVWLFLGDGDVtFRPRSRU
GLVHxRPXHVWUDO
/D(&9WLHQHORVVLJXLHQWHVGRPLQLRVGHHVWXGLR4XLWR*XD\DTXLO&LXGDGHVGHLQIOXHQFLDSURYLQFLDOR
UHJLRQDO&LXGDGHVDUWHVDQDOHVDJURLQGXVWULDOHVRGHH[WHQVRGHVDUUROORGHOVHFWRULQIRUPDO\FLXGDGHVGH
UHVLGHQFLD\VHUYLFLRVSDUDODSREODFLyQDJUtFROD
(VWDYDULDEOHHVVLJQLILFDWLYDDO\DOGHFRQILDELOLGDGHQODVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHVFRQ\VLQFRUUHFFLyQ
SRUPLJUDFLyQUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
$OLJXDOTXHHQODVFLXGDGHVHQHOFDPSRWDPELpQHOQLYHOGHFRQVXPRWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQ
LQYHUVD FRQ HO DQDOIDEHWLVPR /R DQWHULRU VLJQLILFD TXH SHUVRQDV FRQ PD\RU QLYHO GH
FRQVXPR WLHQHQ PHQRU SUREDELOLGDG GH VHU DQDOIDEHWRV HQ WDQWR TXH ORV SREUHV WLHQHQ
PD\RUSUREDELOLGDG(VWHSDUiPHWURHVVLJQLILFDWLYRHQWRGDVODVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
(QHOFDVR GHOFDPSRHOVHUPXMHULQFUHPHQWDODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWDHQXQ
ORFXDOGDFXHQWDGHXQDEUHFKDHQORVQLYHOHVGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQHQWUHKRPEUHV\PXMHUHV
/DHGDGWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQQROLQHDOFRQHODQDOIDEHWLVPR/DSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWR
VHLQFUHPHQWDFRQODHGDGKDVWDOOHJDUDORVDxRVSDUDGHDKtWHQHUXQDUHODFLyQLQYHUVD
/R DQWHULRU VLJQLILFD TXH HQWUH ORV \ DxRV GH HGDG D PHGLGD TXH SDVD HO WLHPSR
DXPHQWD OD SUREDELOLGDG GH VHU DQDOIDEHWR PLHQWUDV TXH GHVSXpV GH GLFKD HGDG OD
SUREDELOLGDG GLVPLQX\H (VWR VLJQLILFD GRV FRVDV HQ WpUPLQRV GH SROtWLFD SRU XQ ODGR OD
QHFHVLGDG GH TXH ORV MyYHQHV LQJUHVHQ D ORV HVWDEOHFLPLHQWRV HGXFDWLYRV HQ ODV HGDGHV
DGHFXDGDV SDUD QR TXHGDUVH GH DQDOIDEHWRV \ OD LPSRUWDQFLD GH WHQHU SURJUDPDV GH
DOIDEHWL]DFLyQGHMyYHQHV/RDQWHULRUWDPELpQSRGUtDHVWDUH[SUHVDQGRXQGHWHULRURHQORV
~OWLPRV DxRV HQ HO QLYHO GH DFFHVR GH ORV MyYHQHV DO VLVWHPD HVFRODU HQ ODV ]RQDV UXUDOHV
(VWHSDUiPHWURHVVLJQLILFDWLYRHQODVWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
(OQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGHOMHIHDGHOKRJDU\GHVXFyQ\XJHWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQLQYHUVDFRQ
HODQDOIDEHWLVPR8QDxRDGLFLRQDOHQHOQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGHOMHIHDGHOKRJDURGHVX
FyQ\XJH UHGXFH OD SUREDELOLGDG GH VHU DQDOIDEHWR HQ XQ /RV SDUiPHWURV VRQ
VLJQLILFDWLYRVHQODVWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
(OVHULQGtJHQDLQFUHPHQWDODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRHQXQ(VWHSDUiPHWURHV
VLJQLILFDWLYRHQODVWUHVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV
)LQDOPHQWHODYDULDEOHUHJLyQHVVLJQLILFDWLYDHQWRGDVODVHVSHFLILFDFLRQHV(QHVWHFDVRHO
YLYLUHQODVFRVWDUXUDOLQFUHPHQWDODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRHQXQ
5HVSHFWR D ODV YDULDEOHV GH RIHUWD GHO VLVWHPD HVFRODU VH REVHUYD TXH OD YDULDEOH DOXPQRV
SRU DXOD HV VLJQLILFDWLYD \ WLHQH XQD UHODFLyQ SRVLWLYD FRQ HO DQDOIDEHWLVPR /R DQWHULRU
VLJQLILFDTXHDPHQRUQLYHOGHFRQJHVWLyQHVFRODUHVWRHVXQDWDVDPiVEDMDGHDOXPQRVSRU
DXODGLVPLQX\HODSUREDELOLGDGGHDQDOIDEHWLVPR8QDUHGXFFLyQHQXQSXQWRHQpVWDWDVD
UHGXFLUtDODSUREDELOLGDGGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRHQXQ
$OLJXDOTXHHQODVFLXGDGHVHOSRUFHQWDMHGHSURIHVRUHVFRQWtWXORGRFHQWHWLHQHXQHIHFWR
SRVLWLYR HQ ORV QLYHOHV GH DOIDEHWL]DFLyQ (Q HVWH FDVR XQ LQFUHPHQWR GH XQ SXQWR HQ HO
SRUFHQWDMHGHGRFHQWHVFRQWtWXORGRFHQWHGLVPLQXLUiODSUREDELOLGDGGHVHUDQDOIDEHWRHQXQ
,PSDFWRGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRHQORVLQJUHVRV\HQHOPHUFDGRODERUDO
&RPRVHPHQFLRQyDUULEDHQHVWDSDUWHVHUHDOL]yXQDHVWLPDFLyQGHORVLQJUHVRVGHOWUDEDMR
XWLOL]DQGRXQ+HFNPDQ(QHOVLJXLHQWHFXDGURVHSUHVHQWDQORVUHVXOWDGRV
&XDGUR
0RGHOR+HFNPDQSDUDORVLQJUHVRVODERUDOHV
+HFNPDQVHOHFWLRQPRGHO1XPEHURIREV UHJUHVVLRQPRGHOZLWKVDPSOHVHOHFWLRQ&HQVRUHGREV 8QFHQVRUHGREV :DOGFKL /RJOLNHOLKRRG H3URE!FKL VWDQGDUGHUURUVDGMXVWHGIRUFOXVWHULQJRQSVX
_5REXVW
_&RHI6WG(UU]3!_]_>&RQI,QWHUYDO@
ORJLQJ_
HGDG_
HGDG_
VH[R_
DUHD_
DQDOID_
SULPDULD_
VHFXQGDULD_
VXSHULRU_
PDVWHU_
DJURBKKK_
PLQBKKK_ PDQXBKKK_
VHUYBKKK_
BFRQV_
VHOHFW_
HGDG_
HGDG_
VH[R_
DUHD_
DQDOID_
SULPDULD_
VHFXQGDULD_
VXSHULRU_
PDVWHU_
DJURBKKK_
PLQBKKK_
PDQXBKKK_ VHUYBKKK_
GPDWULPR_
QBQLQLR_
BFRQV_
DWKUKR_
OQVLJPD_ UKR_
VLJPD_
ODPEGD_
:DOGWHVWRILQGHSHTQVUKR FKL 3URE!FKL /DVHVWLPDFLRQHVIXHURQFRUUHJLGDVSRUKHWHURFHGDVWLFLGDG\SRUGLVHxRPXHVWUDO
&RQ EDVH HQ HO HQIRTXH WHyULFR SODQWHDGR VH SODQWHDURQ ODV VLJXLHQWHV YDULDEOHV SDUD
DQDOL]DUORVLQJUHVRVODERUDOHVHGDGHGDGDOFXDGUDGRVH[RiUHDGHUHVLGHQFLDYDULDEOHV
GLFRWyPLFDVSDUDORVGLIHUHQWHVQLYHOHVGHHVFRODULGDGGHVGHVLQHVFRODULGDGKDVWDHVWXGLRV
GHSRVWJUDGRYDULDEOHV GLFRWyPLFDVSDUDOD UDPDGHDFWLYLGDGGHOMHIHGHKRJDUHQHVWH
FDVRODFDWHJRUtDEDVHHVODUDPDVRWURV
'HO FXDGUR DQWHULRU VH SXHGHQ GHVSUHQGHU DOJXQRV HOHPHQWRV LQWHUHVDQWHV /D HGDG WLHQH
XQD UHODFLyQ QR OLQHDO \ VLJQLILFDWLYD FRQ HO LQJUHVR ODERUDO +DVWD ORV DxRV GH HGDG OD
UHODFLyQHVGLUHFWDDPHGLGDTXHODHGDGDXPHQWDORVLQJUHVRVWDPELpQFUHFHQPLHQWUDV
TXHGHDKtHQDGHODQWHODUHODFLyQVHYXHOYHLQYHUVD(VWDYDULDEOHWDPELpQHVVLJQLILFDWLYD
HQODHFXDFLyQGHVHOHFFLyQ\SUHVHQWDGHLJXDO PDQHUDXQDUHODFLyQQROLQHDO/RDQWHULRU
TXLHUHGHFLUTXHKDVWDODHGDGGHHQHVWHFDVRDxRVKD\XQDUHODFLyQGLUHFWDHQWUHHGDGH
LQFRUSRUDFLyQDOPHUFDGRODERUDODPHGLGDTXHODHGDGDXPHQWDKD\PiVSUREDELOLGDGGH
LQFRUSRUDFLyQDOPHUFDGRODERUDOSHURGHDKtHQDGHODQWHODUHODFLyQVHYXHOYHQHJDWLYD
/D YDULDEOH VH[R WLHQH XQ LPSDFWR VLJQLILFDWLYR HQ ORV LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV 'HVSXpV GH
FRUUHJLUSRURWUDVYDULDEOHVORVKRPEUHVHQSURPHGLRWLHQHQDSUR[LPDGDPHQWHHOGREOHGH
LQJUHVRV TXH ODV PXMHUHV 'H LJXDO IRUPD HQ OD HFXDFLyQ GH VHOHFFLyQ HVWD YDULDEOH
WDPELpQ HV VLJQLILFDWLYD OR FXDO VLJQLILFD TXH ORV KRPEUHV WLHQHQ PD\RU SUREDELOLGDG GH
WUDEDMDU 7RGR OR DQWHULRU GHPXHVWUD ORV HOHYDGRV QLYHOHV GH GLVFULPLQDFLyQ VDODULDO \
ODERUDOHQFRQWUDGHODVPXMHUHV
/DYDULDEOHiUHDWLHQHWDPELpQXQLPSDFWRVLJQLILFDWLYRHQORVLQJUHVRV\HQODGHFLVLyQGH
WUDEDMDU/DVSHUVRQDVTXHYLYHQHQODVFLXGDGHVJDQDQXQPiVTXHORVKDELWDQWHVGHO
FDPSR
(Q FXDQWR DO QLYHO HGXFDWLYR (O VHU DQDOIDEHWR UHGXFH ORV LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV HQ XQ UHVSHFWR D ORV TXH VH DOIDEHWL]DURQ HQ FHQWURV GH DOIDEHWL]DFLyQ X RWUR SURJUDPD GH
HGXFDFLyQGHDGXOWRV/RDQWHULRUYLVWRGHVGHHORWURODGRVLJQLILFDTXHDTXHOORVTXHKDQ
DVLVWLGRDXQSURJUDPDGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQWLHQHQLQJUHVRVPiVDOWRVTXHORVDQDOIDEHWRVHQXQ
6LQ HPEDUJR HO FRHILFLHQWH QR HV VLJQLILFDWLYR HQ OD HFXDFLyQ GH VHOHFFLyQ OR FXDO
VLJQLILFDTXH HODQDOIDEHWLVPRQRLQIOX\H HQODGHFLVLyQGHWUDEDMDUSHUR VLHQHOQLYHOGH
LQJUHVRV
(OWHQHUQLYHOSULPDULRLQFUHPHQWDORVLQJUHVRVUHVSHFWRDORVTXHVRORVHDOIDEHWL]DURQHQ
XQ (O WHQHU VHFXQGDULD ORV LQFUHPHQWD HQ XQ PLHQWUDV TXH HO WHQHU HGXFDFLyQ
VXSHULRULQFUHPHQWDORVLQJUHVRVHQXQ\HOWHQHUQLYHOGHSRVWJUDGRORVLQFUHPHQWD
HQXQ
(Q FXDQWR D ODV UDPDV GH DFWLYLGDG LQGLYLGXRV GH KRJDUHV FRQ MHIHV TXH WUDEDMDQ HQ OD
DJULFXOWXUDWLHQHQLQJUHVRVHQXQPiVDOWRVTXHORVLQGLYLGXRVGHKRJDUHVHQFDEH]DGRV
SRUMHIHVTXHWUDEDMDQHQRWUDVUDPDV3DUDHOFDVRGHODPLQHUtD\PDQXIDFWXUDHOSDUiPHWUR
QRHVVLJQLILFDWLYRPLHQWUDVTXHSDUDHOFDVRGHORVVHUYLFLRVKD\XQGHLQFUHPHQWRHQ
ORVLQJUHVRV
&RPRHOREMHWLYRGHHVWDSDUWHHVDQDOL]DUHOLPSDFWRGHODOIDEHWLVPRHQORVLQJUHVRV\ODSDUWLFLSDFLyQ
ODERUDOVHGHILQLyFRPRFDWHJRUtDEDVHDOQLYHOFHQWURGHDOIDEHWL]DFLyQRHGXFDFLyQEiVLFDGHDGXOWRV
&XDQGRVHUHDOL]DODHVWLPDFLyQGHLQJUHVRVVLQWRPDUHQFXHQWDHOVHVJRSRUVHOHFFLyQHOLQJUHVRGHODV
PXMHUHVHVWiVHVJDGRKDFLDDUULED\HVWRDFRUWDODGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHKRPEUHV\PXMHUHV$OFRUUHJLUHOVHVJRSRU
VHOHFFLyQVHWRPDHQFXHQWDDODVPXMHUHVTXHQRHVWiQWUDEDMDQGRDFWXDOPHQWH\HVWREDMDHOLQJUHVRGHODV
PXMHUHVORFXDODJUDQGDODGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHKRPEUHV\PXMHUHV
(QODYDULDEOHVGHVHOHFFLyQWDPELpQVHLQFOX\yXQDYDULDEOHGLFRWyPLFDSDUDORVFDVDGRVR
TXH YLYHQ HQ SDUHMD \ HO Q~PHUR GH QLxRV HQ HO KRJDU /D GXPP\ SDUD SDUHMD QR HV
VLJQLILFDWLYD HV GHFLU QR LQIOX\H HQ OD GHFLVLyQ GH WUDEDMDU HQ WDQWR TXH HO Q~PHUR GH
QLxRVDIHFWDSRVLWLYDPHQWHHQODGHFLVLyQGHWUDEDMDU
&RQFOXVLRQHV
(O(FXDGRUKDUHDOL]DGRLPSRUWDQWHVDYDQFHVHQHOFRPEDWHDODQDOIDEHWLVPRDWDOSXQWR
TXHHQODDFWXDOLGDGQRVHQFRQWUDPRVHQXQDVLWXDFLyQIDYRUDEOHUHVSHFWRGHOFRQWH[WR
ODWLQRDPHULFDQR
6LQHPEDUJRGHORDQWHULRUODUHGXFFLyQGHODQDOIDEHWLVPRSUHVHQWDVHULDVLQHTXLGDGHV
/RV JUXSRV SREUHV LQGtJHQDV ODV PXMHUHV \ ORV KDELWDQWHV GHO FDPSR KDQ VLGR ORV
PHQRVEHQHILFLDGRV\HQIUHQWDQD~QDOWDVWDVDVGHLQFLGHQFLDGHODQDOIDEHWLVPR$QLYHO
FDQWRQDOODVWDVDVPiVDOWDVGHDQDOIDEHWLVPRVHHQFXHQWUDQHQOD6LHUUDQRUWH\FHQWUDO
\HQ(VPHUDOGDV
(Q WpUPLQRV GH FRQWULEXFLyQ DO DQDOIDEHWLVPR HQ 4XLWR *XD\DTXLO \ &XHQFD VH
FRQFHQWUDQHOGHDQDOIDEHWRVGHOSDtV
/DQRPDWUtFXODWRGDYtDUHSUHVHQWDXQSUREOHPDHQHOSDtV+D\FDQWRQHVHQORVFXDOHV
H[LVWHQWDVDVGHQRPDWUtFXODDODUPDQWHVDOUHGHGRUGHO
(Q WpUPLQRV GH FRQWULEXFLyQ D OD QR PDWUtFXOD HQ 4XLWR \ *XD\DTXLO VH HQFXHQWUD HO
GHOWRWDOGHQRPDWULFXODGRV
/D GLPHQVLyQ JHQHUDFLRQDO SUHVHQWD UHVXOWDGRV LPSRUWDQWHV /RV DQFLDQRV WLHQHQ WDVDV
GHDQDOIDEHWLVPRPD\RUHVDORV MyYHQHV6LQHPEDUJRHQWpUPLQRVGHFRQWULEXFLyQHQ
HOJUXSRGHDDxRVGHHGDGVHHQFXHQWUDHOGHOWRWDOGHDQDOIDEHWRV
(Q FXDQWR D ORV GHWHUPLQDQWHV GHO DQDOIDEHWLVPR VH FRQILUPD OR HQFRQWUDGR HQ OD
SULPHUDSDUWH/DSREUH]DHOQLYHOGHHVFRODULGDGGHORVSDGUHVHOiUHDGHUHVLGHQFLDHO
VH[RODHGDG\ODFRQGLFLyQpWQLFDWLHQHQXQLPSDFWRVLJQLILFDWLYRHQHODQDOIDEHWLVPR
/DFRQVWUXFFLyQGHDXODVHOWHQHUGRFHQWHVFRQWtWXORSHGDJyJLFR \QLYHOXQLYHUVLWDULR
FRQWULEX\HDUHGXFLUHOQLYHO GHDQDOIDEHWLVPR
8Q HVWUDWHJLD GH UHGXFFLyQ GHO DQDOIDEHWLVPR WHQGUtD LPSDFWRV LPSRUWDQWHV HQ ORV
LQJUHVRVODERUDOHVGHODVSHUVRQDV
5HFRPHQGDFLRQHVGHSROtWLFD
8QD SROtWLFD GH UHGXFFLyQ GHO DQDOIDEHWLVPR GHEHUtD HVWDU DWUDYHVDGD SRU GRV FULWHULRV
FRPELQDGRV VHU HILFLHQWH HQ WpUPLQRV GH VX LPSDFWR \ EXVFDU OD HTXLGDG 'HVGH HO
SULPHU SXQWR GH YLVWD KD\ TXH UHFRUGDU TXH HQ OD WUHV FLXGDGHV SULQFLSDOHV GHO SDtV VH
HQFXHQWUDHOGHDQDOIDEHWRV'HVGHHOVHJXQGRSXQWRGHYLVWDKD\TXHUHFRUGDUTXH
KD\ FDQWRQHV\FLHUWRVJUXSRVVRFLDOHVLQGtJHQDVPXMHUHVLQGtJHQDVSREUHVFRQWDVDV
GHDQDOIDEHWLVPRGHO\
8QD FDPSDxD GH DOIDEHWL]DFLyQ QR GHEH FRQFHQWUDVH VROR HQ ORV DQFLDQRV +D\ TXH
UHFRUGDUTXHHQHOJUXSRGHDDxRVGHHGDGVHHQFXHQWUDQHOGHDQDOIDEHWRV
8QD SROtWLFD GH FRQVWUXFFLyQ GH DXODV \ GH PHMRUDPLHQWR GHO QLYHO DFDGpPLFR \
SHGDJyJLFR GH ORV GRFHQWHV WHQGUtD XQ LPSDFWR SRVLWLYR HQ OD UHGXFFLyQ GHO
DQDOIDEHWLVPR
)LQDOPHQWH XQD FDPSDxD GH DOIDEHWL]DFLyQ LQFUHPHQWDUtD HO LQJUHVR ODERUDO GH ORV
LQGLYLGXRVHQXQ
5HIHUHQFLDV
%/81&++XJR\9(51(5'RUWH
,V )XQFWLRQDO /LWHUDF\ D 3UHUHTXLVLWH IR5
(QWHULQJ WKH /DERXU 0DUNHW" $Q $QDO\VLV RI
WKH 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI $GXOW /LWHUDF\ DQG
(DUQLQJVLQ*KDQD :RUOG%DQN
&8(67$-
6RFLDO7UDQVIHUV7KH+RXVHKROGDQGWKH
'LVWULEXWLRQRI,QFRPHVLQ&KLOH3K'WKHVLV
2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\
&8(67$321&(\/(21
(IHFWRV,QGLUHFWRVGHOJDVWRVRFLDOILVFDOHQOD
JHQHUDFLyQGHLQJUHVRVGHO(FXDGRU,66
6,,6(
(&9
*5((1(:+
+(&.0$1--
321&(926\%(',
(QFXHVWDGH&RQGLFLRQHVGH9LGDGHO(FXDGRU
4XLWR,1(&
(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLVGHG(QJOHZRRG
&OLIIV1-3UHQWLFH+DOO
7KHFRPPRQVWUXFWXUHRIVWDWLVWLFDOPRGHOVRI
WUXQFDWLRQVDPSOHVHOHFWLRQ DQGOLPLWHG
YDULDEOHVDQGDVDPSOHHVWLPDWRUIRUVXFK
PRGHOV $QQDOVRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO
0HDVXUHPHQW
&yPR KDFH PiV HILFLHQWH HO JDVWR HGXFDWLYR"
8Q DQiOLVLV GH ORV GHWHUPLQDQWHV GHO DFFHVR D
OD HGXFDFLyQ SULPDULD \ PHGLD HQ HO (FXDGRU
,666,,6(
$SpQGLFH
0pWRGR+HFNPDQGHFRUUHFFLyQGHVHVJRPXHVWUDO
+HFNPDQGHVDUUROODXQDHVWUDWHJLDGHHVWLPDFLyQTXHFRUULJHSRUHOVHVJRGH
VHOHFFLyQPLHQWUDVTXHORVSUREOHPDVWtSLFRVGHHQGRJHQHLGDG\HUURUGHPHGLFLyQ
SUHVHQWHVHQODPHGLFLyQGHLQJUHVRVODERUDOHVVHVROXFLRQDQWUDGLFLRQDOPHQWHFRQHOXVRGH
YDULDEOHVLQVWUXPHQWDOHV*UHHQH/DWpFQLFDGHVHOHFFLyQGHPXHVWUDVGH+HFNPDQ
SURFHGHGHODVLJXLHQWHIRUPD
,QVWUXPHQWDOL]DFLyQGHLQJUHVRVXQLWDULRVQHWRVGHOWUDEDMR
6HXVDQLQVWUXPHQWRVHQODHVWLPDFLyQVHVJDGD2/6GHLQJUHVRVXQLWDULRVODERUDOHVQHWRV
GHLPSXHVWRV
OQ Z W E
; HZ
>@
GRQGH
ZW LQJUHVRXQLWDULRQHWRGHOWUDEDMR
;
YHFWRUGHLQVWUXPHQWRV
YHFWRUGHFRHILFLHQWHVGHODVYDULDEOHVH[yJHQDVHQODVHFXDFLRQHVGHLQJUHVRGHO
E
WUDEDMR
WpUPLQRGHHUURUGHODHFXDFLyQGHLQJUHVRVXQLWDULRVGHOWUDEDMR
HZ
,QVWUXPHQWRV XVDGRV QRUPDOPHQWH SDUD ORV LQJUHVRV XQLWDULRV ODERUDOHV LQFOX\HQ YDULDEOHV
LQGLYLGXDOHVFRPRFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVLQGLYLGXDOHVDxRVGHHVFRODULGDGHGDGHGDGDOFXDGUDGR
±FRPR DSUR[LPDFLyQ GHH[SHULHQFLD \ GHFOLYH ItVLFR \ HVWDGR FLYLO $GHPiV VH LQFOX\HQ
WDPELpQFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHOKRJDUFRPRODSRVLFLyQGHOLQGLYLGXRHQHOKRJDUXQDGXPP\
SDUDODFDSLWDO\RLPSRUWDQWHV]RQDVPHWURSROLWDQDV
(VWLPDFLyQ SRU 0i[LPR 9HURVLPLOLWXG GH ORV FRHILFLHQWHV GH ODV YDULDEOHV
H[yJHQDV
6HHVWLPDXQDIXQFLyQGHPi[LPRYHURVLPLOLWXGRHFXDFLyQGHVHOHFFLyQ
/
– I /
= L V 3 – )/ = L V 3 >@
\ VH HYDO~DHQHOYDORUQRUPDOL]DGRHVWiQGDUTXHODIXQFLyQLPSOtFLWDRODWHQWHWRPDSDUD
FDGDLQGLYLGXRGHODPXHVWUD
L-
L0
3 /¶=HS
GRQGH
>@
(VWDSDUWHHVWiEDVDGDHQ&XHVWDHWDO
-
VXEPXHVWUD GH LQGLYLGXRV FRQ LQJUHVRV XQLWDULRV GHO WUDEDMR \ KRUDV GH WUDEDMR
REVHUYDGRV
VXEPXHVWUDGHLQGLYLGXRVFRQLQJUHVRVXQLWDULRVGHOWUDEDMR\KRUDVGHWUDEDMRQR
REVHUYDGRV
IXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGQRUPDOHVWiQGDU
IXQFLyQGHGHQVLGDGQRUPDODFXPXODGD
FRQMXQWR GH YDULDEOHV TXH GHWHUPLQDQ OD REVHUYDQFLD GH LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV
XQLWDULRVHQODPXHVWUD
WpUPLQRGHHUURUGHODIXQFLyQGHLQJUHVRXQLWDULRODERUDOODWHQWHODFXDOVHDVXPH
HVWDUGLVWULEXLGDQRUPDOPHQWHGHDFXHUGRDORVVXSXHVWRV2/6FOiVLFRVHSa 1
VS
0
I
)
=
HS
/DIXQFLyQODWHQWHGHOLQJUHVRODERUDO3LQGLFDTXHpVWHVHREVHUYDVL
3 VLHS!/¶=
<QRVHREVHUYDVL
3 VLHS /¶=
>D@
>E@
(OFRQMXQWRGHYDULDEOHVH[yJHQDVHQODIXQFLyQGHLQJUHVRODERUDOODWHQWHFRQWLHQHEXHQD
SDUWH GH ORV LQVWUXPHQWRV DVt FRPR RWUDV YDULDEOHV TXH GHWHUPLQDQ OD REVHUYDQFLD GH ORV
LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV SHUR QR VX QLYHO /DV YDULDEOHV H[yJHQDV LQGLYLGXDOHV WtSLFDPHQWH
SURSXHVWDVVRQLFDSLWDOKXPDQRDxRVGHHVFRODULGDG\HGDGHQIRUPDOLQHDU\FXDGUiWLFD
LL HVWDGR FLYLO LLL JpQHUR \ LY SRVLFLyQ GHQWUR GHO KRJDU FDEH]D R QR FDEH]D
&DUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHOKRJDUVHUHILHUHQDVXFRPSRVLFLyQGHPRJUiILFDQ~PHURGHQLxRVHQWUH
ORV FXDOHV WtSLFDPHQWH UHFLEHQ DWHQFLyQ Q~PHUR GH QLxRV HQWUH TXH D~Q QR
SXGLHQGRHQWUDUHQHOPHUFDGRODERUDOSRGUtDQFXLGDUGHRWURVPLHPEURVGHOKRJDUQ~PHUR
GH DQFLDQDV SUHVHQFLD GH VHUYLFLR GRPpVWLFR 7DPELpQ VH FRQVLGHUD OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ GHO
KRJDUVLHV UXUDORXUEDQR \VLSHUWHQHFHDXQ Q~FOHRPHWURSROLWDQRLPSRUWDQWHRQR(Q
WpUPLQRVHFRQRPpWULFRVHVWDVYDULDEOHVDGLFLRQDOHVSHUPLWHQODLGHQWLILFDFLyQGHOPRGHOR
&RHILFLHQWHV&RUUHJLGRV
6H FRQVWUX\H XQD YDULDEOH D SDUWLU GHO YHFWRU GH FRHILFLHQWHV \ HUURUHV HVWiQGDU TXH
PD[LPL]DQ OD IXQFLyQ GH Pi[LPR YHURVLPLOLWXG HFXDFLyQ >@ (VWD YDULDEOH TXH VH
GHQRPLQD 5DWLR ,QYHUVR GH 0LOOV OL FRUULJH OD SUREDELOLGDG GH TXH HO LQJUHVR XQLWDULR
ODERUDOGHOLQGLYLGXRQRVHDREVHUYDGRHQHOPXHVWUD
OL
I /
=L V 3 ) /
=L V 3 >@
(VWH5DWLR,QYHUVRGH0LOOVVHXVDHQWRQFHVSDUDHVWLPDUXQPRGHOR2/6GHLQJUHVRODERUDO
XQLWDULRFRUUHJLGRSRUVHOHFFLyQGHPXHVWUDV
OQ Z W E ; G OL H Z
>@
/D HVWLPDFLyQ GH HVWD HFXDFLyQ SURYHH XQ FRQMXQWR GH FRHILFLHQWHV SDUD ODV YDULDEOHV
A
A
H[yJHQDV E \ HO UDWLR LQYHUVR GH 0LOOV G TXH VH FRQRFH FRPR FRUUHFFLyQ HQ µ'RV
3DVRV¶
(VWLPDFLyQ),0/
A
A
6HSXHGHKDFHUXVRGHHVWRVFRHILFLHQWHVFRUUHJLGRV E DQG G FRPRYDORUHVLQLFLDOHVGH
XQ SURFHVR GH PD[LPL]DFLyQ UHLWHUDGD GH OD IXQFLyQ Pi[LPR YHURVLPLOLWXG KDVWD OD
A
FRQYHUJHQFLDDXQYHFWRUHVWDEOHGHFRHILFLHQWHV E ),0/TXHVHGHQRPLQDQFRHILFLHQWHV
³IXOO LQIRUPDWLRQ PD[LPXP OLNHOLKRRG´ 'H HVWD IRUPD VH HVWLPD ORV LQJUHVRV ODERUDOHV
XQLWDULRVFRUUHJLGRVSDUDWRGRVORVPLHPEURVGHODPXHVWUD
Descargar