Impactos y Vulnerabilidad J. M. Moreno1*, I.R. Urbieta1, J. Bedia2, J.M. Gutiérrez2, V.R. Vallejo3 1 Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo 2 Grupo de Meteorología, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, CSIC-UC, Santander 3 Universidad de Barcelona y CEAM (Barcelona, Valencia) * 34 Correo electrónico: JoseM.Moreno@uclm.es Los incendios forestales en España ante al cambio climático Resultados clave /RV LQFHQGLRV DIHFWDQ D WRGR HO WHUULWRULR QDFLRQDO SRUORTXHODJHVWLyQ\FRQVHUYDFLyQGHORVHFRVLVWHPDV WHUUHVWUHVHVSDxROHVUHTXLHUHLUPiVDOOiGHODSUHYHQFLyQ HLQWHJUDUODHFRORJtDGHORVHFRVLVWHPDVHQUHODFLyQFRQ HOIXHJR (O FDPELR FOLPiWLFR LQFUHPHQWDUi OD IUHFXHQFLD GH VLWXDFLRQHV GH PD\RU SHOLJUR DVt FRPR OD HVWDFLyQ GH LQFHQGLRV+DVWDPHGLDGRVGHVLJORHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR SUR\HFWDGR HV SRFR YDULDEOH H LQGHSHQGLHQWH GH ODV HPLVLRQHVGHJDVHV GHHIHFWRLQYHUQDGHUR3RU WDQWROD SODQL¿FDFLyQIXWXUDGHEHEDVDUVHHQHOFOLPDSUR\HFWDGR QRHQHOSDVDGR /D JHVWLyQ GHEH KDFHUVH SRU REMHWLYRV HVSHFt¿FRV LQFOX\HQGR OD GLVPLQXFLyQ GH OD SHOLJURVLGDG HO PDQWHQLPLHQWR R PHMRUD GH ORV VHUYLFLRV HFRVLVWpPLFRV R OD UHVLOLHQFLD GH ORV HFRVLVWHPDV DO IXHJR X RWURV IHQyPHQRVH[WUHPRV/DJHVWLyQGHEHFRQWHPSODUHOXVR GHOIXHJRSUHVFULWR /RV LQFHQGLRV VH FRQFHQWUDQ HQ DOJXQDV ]RQDV 6H QHFHVLWD XQD FDUWRJUDItD KLVWyULFD GH ORV LQFHQGLRV SDUD SRGHU DQWLFLSDUVH D ORV LPSDFWRV PiV LQGHVHDGRV +D\ TXH SODQL¿FDU FRQ HVSHFLDO DWHQFLyQ OD LQWHUID] XUEDQR IRUHVWDO Contexto Descriptiva general de la ocurrencia de incendios en España y tendencias (Q HO ~OWLPR PHGLR VLJOR VH KDQ UHJLVWUDGR HQ (VSDxD XQRV LQFHQGLRV IRUHVWDOHV ORV FXDOHV DIHFWDURQ D FHUFD GH 0KD /D LQFLGHQFLD DQXDO KD VLGR PX\ YDULDEOH PLHQWUDV TXH HQ OD GpFDGD GH HO SURPHGLR DQXDO GH LQFHQGLRV UHJLVWUDGR HUD GH DIHFWDQGR D KD HQ OD GpFDGD GH OD GH PD\RU LQFLGHQFLD VH OOHJDURQ D UHJLVWUDU FDGD DxR XQRV LQFHQGLRV DIHFWDQGR D XQ SURPHGLR GH KD 'XUDQWH HO ~OWLPR GHFHQLR HO Q~PHUR PHGLR GH LQFHQGLRV FDGD DxR KD GLVPLQXLGR DOJR KDVWD SHUR FRQ XQ FODUR GHVFHQVR GH OD VXSHU¿FLH PHGLD TXHPDGD KD DQXDOHV 0$*5$0$ )LJXUD $ (VWDV YDULDFLRQHV VRQ HO UHÀHMR GH FDPELRV H[SHULPHQWDGRV HQ HO SDtV HQ ORV IDFWRUHV GHWHUPLQDQWHV GH OD RFXUUHQFLD \ PDJQLWXG GH ORV LQFHQGLRV (Q FRQFUHWR GXUDQWH HVWH WLHPSR KD FDPELDGRODVRFLRORJtD\HFRQRPtDHQSDUWLFXODUGHODV ]RQDV UXUDOHV FRQ VXV FRQVLJXLHQWHV HIHFWRV VREUH ORV XVRVGHOVXHOR\ORVSDLVDMHVDVtFRPRQXHVWUDVSROtWLFDV GH OXFKD FRQWUD LQFHQGLRV \ OD FDSDFLGDG GH KDFHUORV IUHQWH 3RU RWUR ODGR SDUWH GH HVWDV YDULDFLRQHV UHÀHMD FDPELRVHQODUHFROHFFLyQGHODLQIRUPDFLyQVLHQGRHVWD PiVKRPRJpQHD\H[KDXVWLYDHQODV~OWLPDVGpFDGDVOR TXHDIHFWDVREUHWRGRDORVLQFHQGLRVGHSHTXHxRWDPDxR )LQDOPHQWHHOFOLPDDOLJXDOTXHHQHOUHVWRGHOPXQGR KD FDPELDGR FRQ DXPHQWRV GH WHPSHUDWXUD GHVLJXDOHV SHURJHQHUDOL]DGRV%UXQHWHWDO3pUH]%RVFROR )HUQiQGH]0RQWHVHWDO$FHURHWDO 3RU RWUR ODGR ORV FDPELRV HQ OD SUHFLSLWDFLyQ DXQTXH PHQRVUREXVWRVHYLGHQFLDQWDPELpQXQDWHQGHQFLDKDFLD ODUHGXFFLyQGHODVPLVPDVVREUHWRGRHQLQYLHUQRHQOD PLWDGVXUHVWHGHOSDtV*LRUJL/LRQHOOR3pUH] %RVFROR%HJXHUtDHWDO /RV LQFHQGLRV VH UHSDUWHQ SUiFWLFDPHQWH SRU OD WRWDOLGDG GH QXHVWUD JHRJUDItD 3RGHPRV D¿UPDU FRQ URWXQGLGDG TXH JHVWLRQDU QXHVWURV HFRVLVWHPDV WHUUHVWUHV GHVGH OXHJR ORV IRUHVWDOHV UHTXLHUH HQWHQGHU VX UHODFLyQ FRQ HO IXHJR 'H LJXDO PDQHUD FRQVHUYDU QXHVWURV HFRVLVWHPDV WHUUHVWUHV SUHFLVD HQWHQGHU VX HFRORJtDHQUHODFLyQFRQHOIXHJR6LELHQORVLQFHQGLRV 395 RFXUUHQGHPDQHUDJHQHUDOL]DGDODLQFLGHQFLDHQHOSDtV QR HV XQLIRUPH SRU OR TXH KD\ ]RQDV SDUWLFXODUPHQWH DIHFWDGDV(QWUHHOODVGHVWDFDQ*DOLFLDFRQHOGHORV VLQLHVWURV\HOGHODVXSHU¿FLHIRUHVWDOWRWDODIHFWDGD HQHO~OWLPRGHFHQLRHO/HYDQWHODV6LHUUDV%pWLFDV\HO 6LVWHPD&HQWUDO)LJXUD%& TXHGDQHQKDGHDKDVRORVRQXQ \GHPiVGHKDDSHQDVXQ/RVLQFHQGLRVPX\ JUDQGHV ! 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