.75?2;<51/1 )/0587/6 126 "6=596/78 ! +>78 &"#.(-"$ $% #'%)#'", ,*#'"(%, %<0>26/ +;832<587/6 12 ,8058684B/ ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] 8\S`] $ >c\W] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 8JLz;MDG GJA?AF8D 9J=N= >8;LGJ=K IM= <=L=JEAF8F D8 <=E8F<8 <=D LMJAKEG =PLJ8FB=JG Q =>=;LGK =F =D =EHD=G <= D8 HJGNAF;A8 <= HMFG >8;LGJK L@8L <=L=JEAF= L@= <=E8F< G> >GJ=A?F LGMJAKE 8F< =EHDGQE=FL =>>=;LK G> L@= HJGNAF;= G> HMFG Lf`- bk Trofpjl+ M^dfpqbo S`fbkqf^b bk E`lklj^ `lk Mbk`fk bk Polvb`qlp ab Iksbopfk v Dl`qlo bk Cfbk`f^p bk E`lklj^ v dbpqfkDl`bkqb Ooafk^ofl ab i^ F^`riq^a ab Cfbk`f^p Sl`f^ibp UNA,Prkl) EUf]c K]`jU <iY•Ug % J=KME=F Ei qrofpjl ob`bmqfsl bk Prkl pb `lkpqfqrvb `ljl rk bibjbkql b`lkjf`l crka^jbkq^i m^o^ ilp ird^obp `lk sl`^`fk qropqf`^+ jlqfsl mlo bi `r^i bp fjmloq^kqb ^k^ifw^o ilp c^`qlobp nrb abqbojfk^k i^ abj^ka^ abi qrofpjl buqo^kgbol v ilp bcb`qlp bk bi bjmibl ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ v^ nrb bi `ob`fjfbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl ob`bmqfsl ^ Prkl kl bp pfdkfcf`^qfsl nrb obmobpbkq^ jbklp abi 0/% abi qlq^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^i m^p bk `ljm^o^`fk ^i qlq^i ab ^oof_lp nrb iibd^ ^i Pbo nrb prmbo^ ilp qobp jfiilkbp bi ^l 1/04+ `ljl `lkpb`rbk`f^ abi bpqrafl pb fabkqfcf` i^p mofk`fm^ibp `^rp^p nrb bumif`^k i^ fkbpq^_fifa^a v _^gl `ob`fjfbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp+ bkqob bii^p pb qfbkb bi c^`qlo crka^jbkq^i nrb bp i^ `ob^`fk b fkkls^`fk ab krbslp molar`qlp qropqf`lp bi `r^i mbojfqfo^ fk`objbkq^o bk 18+31/ qrofpq^p ^i ^l pf pb lcob`bk krbslp molar`qlp qropqf`lp `ljl JYW]V]Xc5 +0 XY aUmc XY` -+,1 8dfcVUXc5 ,- XY ^ib]c XY` -+,1 HiV`]WUXc5 .+ XY Bib]c XY` -+,1 eb`el k^qro^i abi jbo`^al qropqf`l+ i^ lqo^ s^of^_ib fjmloq^kqb bp i^ fksbopfk buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^ bk bjmobp^p ab qrofpjl `rv^ fjmloq^k`f^ o^af`^ bk e^_bo fabkqfcf`^al nrb rk^ bp`^p^ fksbopfk ^cb`q^ kbd^qfs^jbkqb bk i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p ^ Prkl v^ nrb abg^o^k ab iibd^o 075 qrofpq^p ^i ^l+ ab_fbkal moljlsbopb i^ fksbopfk mofs^a^ bk Prkl abpab i^ Mrkf`fm^ifa^a v bi Gl_fbokl Rbdflk^i- Clk i^ molvb``fk ab i^ abj^ka^ ^i ^l 1/10 pb fk`objbkq^o bk 57+8% ^molufj^a^jbkqb ab i^ abj^ka^ ^`qr^i+ pfbjmob v `r^kal i^ dbpqfk m_if`^ abi qrofpjl bk Prkl pb^ bcf`fbkqbHU`UVfUg W`UjYg5 abj^ka^+ b`lkljbqo^+ fksbopfk- qrofpjl+ 89KLJ8;L Ik_lrka qlrofpj fk Prkl fp bpq^_ifpeba ^p ^ crka^jbkq^i b`lkljf` bibjbkq clo mi^`bp tfqe ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 86 qlrofpq sl`^qflk+ tev fq fp fjmloq^kq ql ^k^ivwb qeb c^`qlop qe^q abqbojfkb qeb abj^ka lc clobfdk qlrofpqp ^ka fqp bccb`qp fk qeb bjmilvjbkq lc qeb molsfk`b lc Prkl+ ^p doltqe fk abj^ka clo ob`bmqfsb ql Prkl qlrofpj fp klq pfdkfcf`^kq obmobpbkqfkd ibpp qe^k 0/% lc qeb qlq^i ^oofs^ip lc clobfdk qlrofpqp ql qeb `lrkqov `ljm^oba ql qeb qlq^i ^oofs^ip ob^`efkd qeb Pbor qe^q bu`bbap qeobb jfiiflk _v 1/04+ ^p ^ obpriq lc qeb pqrav fabkqfcfba qeb j^fk `^rpbp bumi^fkfkd qeb fkpq^_fifqv ^ka ilt doltqe fk abj^ka clo clobfdk qlrofpqp+ ^jlkd qebj fp qeb `ofqf`^i c^`qlo fp qeb `ob^qflk ^ka fkkls^qflk lc kbt qlrofpj molar`qp tef`e tlria fk`ob^pb ql 18+31/ qlrofpqp ^ vb^o fc kbt qlrofpj molar`qp ^p ^ k^qro^i c^`q lc lccbo qlrofpj j^ohbq+ qeb lqebo fjmloq^kq s^of^_ib fp clobfdk afob`q fksbpqjbkq fk qlrofpj `ljm^kfbp telpb fjmloq^k`b ifbp fk e^sfkd fabkqfcfba ^ ilt fksbpqjbkq kbd^qfsbiv ^ccb`qp qeb abj^ka lc qlrofpqp ql Prkl ^p qebv tlria kl ilkdbo dbq 075 qlrofpqp ^ vb^o+ jrpq _b moljlqba mofs^qb fksbpqjbkq Prkl colj qeb Mrkf`fm^ifqv ^ka qeb Rbdflk^i Glsbokjbkq- Wfqe qeb molgb`qba abj^ka _v 1/10 tfii fk`ob^pb _v ^mmolufj^qbiv 57-8% lc `roobkq abj^ka+ ^p ilkd ^p qeb mr_if` j^k^dbjbkq lc qlrofpj fk Prkl bccf`fbkq- j^`ol obdflk^i nrb ab_bo^ obcibg^opb bk bi fk`objbkql mlo`bkqr^i pfjfi^o bk Prkl v nrb mlo i^ bp`^pl `lkl`fjfbkql ab jbqlalild^p cf^_ibp ab molvb``fk v abp`lkl`fjfbkql ab ilp c^`qlobp j^p fjmloq^kqbp nrb fkcirvbk bk i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol kl pb ^mif`^k mliqf`^p ^ab`r^a^p m^o^ jbglo^o b fk`objbkq^o i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl dbkbo^kal q^j_fk abp`lkcf^kw^ bk bi pb`qlo mofs^al m^o^ ob^ifw^o prp fksbopflkbp bk ilp or_olp ab i^ ^`qfsfa^a qropqf`^+ mlo ilp ^kqb`babkqbp v mol_ibj^p ^kqbp jbk`flk^alp pb mi^kqb^ i^ pfdrfbkqb fkqboold^kqb dbkbo^i9 Cribp plk ilp c^`qlobp nrb abqbojfk^k i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl v bk nrb jbafa^ pb molvb`q^ pr fk`objbkql? Sfbkal i^p mlpf_ibp obpmrbpq^p i^ fksbopfk buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^+ fkkls^`fk v afsbopfcf`^`fk ab molar`qlp qropqf`lp bk Prkl+ bpq^_fifa^a mliqf`^ v pl`f^i+ fkci^`fk bk bi m^p v qfml ab `^j_fl ab jlkba^ k^`flk^i `lk bi ai^o kloqb^jbof`^kl- Ai fabkqfcf`^o ilp c^`qlobp mofk`fm^ibp pb mlao• lofbkq^o jbglo ilp bpcrbowlp m^o^ moljlsbo bi fk`objbkql pfdkfcf`^qfsl ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl `lk il nrb pb fk`objbkq^o^ bi bjmibl v i^ `^ifa^a ab sfa^ abi ml_i^alo il`^i- CYmkcfXg5 abj^ka+ qlrofpj+ b`lkljbqof`p+ fksbpqjbkq- E8L=JA8D=K Q E=LG<GK AFLJG<M;;A|F Dbkqol ab rk jrkal dil_^ifw^al i^ ^`qfsfa^a qropqf`^ bp rk^ ab i^p do^kabp ^iqbok^qfs^p abkqol abi abp^ooliil ab rk^ pl`fba^a; pfk bj_^odl Prkl+ qbkfbkal rkl ab ilp ^qo^`qfslp qropqf`lp ab j^vlo fjmloq^k`f^ bk bi jrkal `ljl bp bi i^dl Tfqf`^`^ kl bpq• abp^oolii^kal af`e^ ^`qfsfa^a `ljmbqfqfs^jbkqb bk obi^`fk ^ lqo^p obdflkbp `ljl Aobnrfm^ l Crp`l+ v^ nrb bk i^ ^`qr^ifa^a bi qrofpjl bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl mobpbkq^ rk^ pbofb ab abcf`fbk`f^p bk afpqfkqlp ^pmb`qlp- P^o^ bi mobpbkqb ^l pb mobsf fk`objbkq^o bk rk 0/% bi qrofpjl ^ kfsbi k^`flk^i pbdk bi Mfkfpqbofl ab Cljbo`fl Euqboflo v Trofpjl abi Pbo `fco^ 87 Ei bpqrafl bp ab `^o•`qbo kl bumbofjbkq^i+ abp`ofmqfsl v `loobi^`flk^i- L^ rkfa^a ab ^k•ifpfp bpq• `lkcloj^a^ mlo ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb ^oof_^olk ^ Prkl ilp iqfjlp afbw ^lp v ^ qo^sp abi jqlal Dbimev pb fabkqfcf` ilp c^`qlobp ab abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl ob`bmqfsl ^ Prkl pbdk ilp bjmobp^oflp abi pb`qlo qrofpjl ab i^ `fra^a- Ei kfsbi ab ^k•ifpfp bp jf`olP^o^ bi ^kifpfp ab fkcloj^`fk pb rqfifw i^ obdobpfk ifkb^i jiqfmib+ i^p q`kf`^p b fkpqorjbkqlp ab ob`lib``fk ab a^qlp crbolk i^ obsfpfk ab crbkqbp al`rjbkq^ibp `ljl ^kr^oflp bpq^apqf`lp b fkclojbp ab fkpqfqr`flkbp sfk`ri^a^p ^ i^p s^of^_ibp fabkqfcf`^a^p- Ekqobsfpq^p ^ molcrkafa^a ob^ifw^a^ ^ ilp bjmobp^oflp+ ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- ^`^ajf`lp v `lkl`balobp abi pb`qlo qrofpjl bk Prkl- Ei mol`bp^jfbkql ab fkclo j^`fk `r^kqfq^qfs^+ pb bcb`qr `lk bi plcqt^ob bpq^apqf`l SPSS s08-/ m^o^ Wfkaltp; pl_ob bpq^ _^pb+ m^o^ bi ^kifpfp b fabkqfcf`^`fk ab i^p mofk`fm^ibp s^of^_ibp nrb fkcirvb bk i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl pb e^ rqfifw^al i^ bpq^apqf`^ fkcbobk`f^i ^ qo^sp ab i^ fabkqfcf`^`fk ab bpqfj^alobp bpq^apqf`lp nrb klp mbojfqbk `lkl`bo bk qojfklp `r^kqfq^qfslp bi bcb`ql ab i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p+ i^ obi^`fk ab s^of^_ibp v s^ifabw abi jlabil b`lkljqof`lJ=KMDL8<GK Q <AK;MKA|F <=E8F<8 @AKL|JA;8 <= 8JJA9G <= LMJAKL8K =PLJ8FB=JGK 8 D8 HJGNAF;A8 <= HMFG5 -++0 o -+,/ Prkl+ bk o^wk ab i^ dbkbo^`fk ab bjmibl nrb pb a^ `ljl obpriq^al ab bpq^ ^`qfsfa^a; pfk bj_^odl+ bi `ob`fjfbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl kl bp pfdkfcf`^qfsl v pb e^ qbkfal bk il obcbobkqb ^i ^oof_l ab qrofpq^p ^lp kbd^qfslp `ljl bi 1//8 v 1/0/ 'Go•cf`l 0(+ obpriq^al nrb kl `lkqo^pq^ `lk i^ ob^ifa^a abi m^p bk bi nrb bi `ob`fjfbkql moljbafl abi qrofpjl ^kr^i bp abi 0/% v bi `ob`fjfbkql pfdkfcf`^qfsl ab qrofpjl ob`bmqfsl ab Aobnrfm^ v Crp`l+ mlo il nrb pb ab_b qlj^o `lk pbofba^a v ^k^ifw^o ilp a^qlp abi qrofpjl bk Prkl m^o^ ildo^o rk sboa^abol abpqfkl qropqf`l `lk ^iq^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p mofk`fm^ijbkqb buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl- L^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bp crka^jbkq^i bk bi abp^ooliil ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab ?fUZ]Wc , 8ff]Vcg XY hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg U `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc >iYbhY5 Ei^_lo^al bk _^pb ^ a^qlp ab MINCETUR+ 1/04 ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 88 HJGQ=;;A|F <= D8 <=E8F<8 >MLMJ8 <= LMJAKL8K =PLJ8FB=JGK Q KMK AEHDA;8F;A8K =F D8 HJGNAF;A8 <= HMFG HUfU `U fYWc`YWW]b XY XUhcg gY fYWiff] U `Ug YghUXgh]WUg XY` Abgh]hihc FUW]cbU` XY =ghUXgh]WU Y AbZcfa~h]WU #AF=A$' `cg Vc`Yh]bYg YghUXgh]Wcg XY` EAF;=LMJ #XUhcg XY gYf]Yg XY h]Yadcg$' gY hca XUhcg XY WcfhY hfUbgjYfgU` dUfU `U jUf]UV`Y dfcXiWhc hifgh]Wc) Ei mol`bp^jfbkql ab ilp a^qlp pb ob^ifw rqfifw^kal i^ q`kf`^ ab obdobpfk ifkb^i jiqfmib+ bk bi m^nrbqb bpq^apqf`l Esfbtp s1-4Pi^kqb^jfbkql abi jlabil b`lkljqof`l Q6 + & , P, & - P- & . P.& / P/ & 0 <cbXY5 Y = V^of^_ib abmbkafbkqb 's^of^_ib bumif`^a^( X = V^of^_ibp fkabmbkafbkqbp 's^of^_ibp bumif`^qfs^p( $ = Eoolo ab bpqfj^`fk 'mboqro_^`fk( Hcf `c hUbhc5 Y= X0 = X1 = X2 = X3 = X4 = Dbj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl 'TTAS(+ qlq^i ab ^oof_lp ^ Prkl Iksbopfk buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^ 'IED( obmobpbkq^al bk jfiilkbp ab ai^obp Tfml ab `^j_fl 'TC(+ bumobp^al bk krbslp plibp mlo ai^obp ^jbof`^klp Epq^_fifa^a mliqf`^ v pl`f^i 'PS(+ bumobp^al bk kjbol ab molqbpq^pIkci^`fk m^p 'INF(+ obmobpbkq^al mlo bi kaf`b moljbafl ^kr^i Polar`qlp qropqf`lp 'PT(+ bumobp^al bk bi fk`objbkql ab krbslp molar`qlp P0 & LUV`U , AbZcfaUW]b YghUXgh]WU TTAS IED TC PS INF PT AÑO Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 2005 141590 63,2 3,30 1009 1,6 5 2006 154666 63,4 3,27 669 2,0 6 2007 174212 63,5 3,13 560 1,8 6 2008 198773 63,8 2,93 659 5,8 7 2009 181121 72,3 3,01 734 2,9 7 2010 177218 76,6 2,83 546 1,5 8 2011 193079 76,6 2,75 422 3,4 9 2012 252286 81,6 2,64 344 3,7 10 2013 267724 83,1 2,70 543 2,8 11 2014 268643 83,2 2,84 675 3,2 11 >iYbhY5 Ei^_lo^`fk molmf^ bk _^pb ^ a^qlp mr_if`^alp+ 1/04 0// ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- LUV`U JY[fYg]b XY` acXY`c YWcbcahf]Wc Dependent Variable: Y Method: Least Squares Date: 03/01/15 Time: 00:07 Sample: 2005 2014 Included observations: 10 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 15462.07 558047.9 0.027707 0.9792 X1 -186.1670 433.7997 -0.429154 0.6899 X2 220.3824 1215.451 0.181317 0.8649 X3 16.61306 69.66835 0.238459 0.8232 X4 365.1321 999.8217 0.365197 0.7335 X5 29420.17 13196.51 2.229390 0.0897 R-squared 0.929213 Mean dependent var 200931.2 Adjusted R-squared 0.840729 S.D. dependent var 46043.84 S.E. of regression 18375.52 Akaike info criterion 22.75914 Sum squared resid 1.35E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.94069 Log likelihood -107.7957 F-statistic 10.50150 Prob(F-statistic) 0.020391 Durbin-Watson stat 2.546809 >iYbhY5 Ei^_lo^`fk molmf^+ 1/04 Ei obpriq^al abi jlabil bp bi pfdrfbkqb9 Q 6 U+ & U,P, & U-P- & U.P.& U/P/ & U0P0 & a <cbXY5 Q 6 04351-/6 * ,075-05X0 * 11/-27X1 * 05-50X2 * 254-02X3 * 1831/-06X4 Ak•ifpfp ab ilp obpriq^alp9 L^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ qfmfcf`^al bk bi mobpbkqb qo^_^gl `ljl bi ^oof_l ab qrofpq^p+ bumif`^ pr `ljmloq^jfbkql bk rk 82 % bk crk`fk ab i^p s^of^_ibp9 fksbopfk afob`q^ buqo^kgbo^+ qfml ab `^j_fl+ bpq^_fifa^a mliqf`^ v pl`f^i+ fkci^`fk m^p v molar`qlp qropqf`lp Aabjp mlabjlp pb^i^o i^ fkcirbk`f^ ab `^a^ rkl ab i^p s^of^_ibp ^p9 Dbi jlabil mi^kqb^al mlabjlp iibd^o ^ i^p pfdrfbkqbp `lk`irpflkbp9 ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 0/0 " " " Sf i^p fksbopflkbp buqo^kgbo^p afob`q^p 'X0( kl pb fk`objbkqbk pfdkfcf`^qfs^jbkqb bk Prkl fkcirfo• ab cloj^ kbd^qfs^ bk bi fk`objbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ ab ,075-05 qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^i ^l+ mlo i^ krbs^ lcboq^ ab pbosf`flp qropqf`lp nrb ab_bo^ e^_bo bk Prkl `lk pbosf`flp ab `^ifa^a `ljl9 elqbibp+ obpq^ro^kqbp+ ^dbk`f^p ab sf^gbp v qo^kpmloqb qropqf`lSf pb fk`objbkq^ bi qfml ab `^j_fl 'X1(+ bkqlk`bp bpq^ s^of^`fk fkcirfo bk cloj^ m^o`f^i bk i^ abj^ka^ mlo qrofpjl bk 11/-27 qrofpq^p ^i ^l+ nrb abpb^o^k ^oof_^o ^i abm^oq^jbkql ab PrklClkpfabo^kal i^ s^of^_ib •bpq^_fifa^a pl`f^i v mliqf`^ 'X2( v qlj^kal bk `rbkq^ pr obi^qfs^ bpq^_fifa^a e^_o rk jkfjl fk`objbkql ab 05-50 qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp- Sf `lkpfabo^jlp i^ fkci^`fk b`lkjf`^ abi m^p 'X3(+ i^ jlkba^ buqo^kgbo^ fk`objbkq^ pr s^ilo mlo il nrb pb ^prjb q^j_fk rk fk`objbkql bk i^ abj^ka^ ab 254-02 qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl bk rk ^lSf pb a^k ^ `lkl`bo krbslp molar`qlp qropqf`lp 'X4( bk krbpqol abm^oq^jbkql ab j^vlo fjm^`ql+ biil fk`objbkq^o^ pfdkfcf`^qfs^jbkqb bi ^oof_l ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ krbpqol abm^oq^jbkql bk 1831/-06 qrofpq^p ^i ^l- " " Db ilp obpriq^alp l_qbkfalp+ pb mrbab abar`fo nrb ^ qo^sp ab ilp bpq^apqf`lp T v F mol_^_ibjbkqb kl bufpq^k mol_ibj^p ab ebqbol bi^pqf`fa^a+ v^ nrb prp mol_^_fifa^abp kl+ plk `bol v i^ R1 bp /-82- ?f~Z]Wc HfcmYWW]b XY XYaUbXU XY hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg U Hibc5 -+,0 ( -+-, 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 06 08 10 12 YF 14 16 18 20 Y F SM >iYbhY5 Ei^_lo^`fk molmf^+ 1/04 ?=F=J8;A|F <= =EHD=G = AF?J=KG H=J;xHAL8 HGJ LMJAKEG Ei pb`qlo qrofpjl dbkbo^ rk kfsbi ab bjmibl jrv pfjfi^o ^i pb`qlo ab i^ `lkpqor``fk v `^pf bi 0/1 3/% abi bjmibl bk bi pb`qlo fkarpqof^i- Ep mol_^_ib 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LchU` XY [Ughc dYf W~d]hU XY` hif]ghU YlhfUb^Yfc Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc Turista Extranjero USD Gasto diario promedio US$ 138,00 Promedio de estadía en Puno 2 Total Gasto Per cápita US$ 276 >iYbhY5 Pbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol | PROMPER•; 1/02 Clk i^ molvb``fk ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl mlabjlp `^i`ri^o bi fk`objbkql abi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al m^o^ ilp moufjlp ^lp `ljl obpriq^al abi fk`objbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ abi molar`ql qropqf`l ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ jriqfmif`^kal bi kjbol qlq^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl mlo bi moljbafl ab d^pql mbo `•mfq^ ab `^a^ qrofpq^ bk Prkl+ `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp bi d^pql ^kr^i ab ilp ^lp m^p^alp v bi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb `ljl obpriq^al pb bpmbo^ nrb m^o^ bi ^l 1/10 qbkd^jlp fkdobplp _orqlp mlo US$ 0/6{486+/71 jfiilkbp 'T^_i^ 3(- LUV`U / ?Ughc UbiU` XY `cg hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc Años proyectados 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total arribos a Puno 277634 296336 315038 333739 352441 371143 389845 Total Gasto Percápita 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 Total gasto anual 76627012 81788708 86950378 92112047 97273716 102435385 107597082 >iYbhY5 DIRCETUR | Prkl; 1/04 Db ^`rboal ^ ilp obpriq^alp l_qbkfalp abi d^pql qlq^i ^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ mlabjlp `^i`ri^o bi fkdobpl _orql mbo `mfq^ ^kr^i ab i^ ml_i^`fk ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal bi d^pql qlq^i ^kr^i 0/3 ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk Prkl bkqob bi kjbol ab e^_fq^kqbp ab i^ molsfk`f^ `lk il nrb l_qbkbjlp rk fkdobpl moljbafl molvb`q^al ^kr^i ab US$ 322 mlo e^_fq^kqb m^o^ bi ^l 1/10+ nrb bp prmboflo ^ i^ ab ilp ^lp m^p^alp+ fkdobplp ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- _orqlp nrb pb obcibg^k bk i^ jrbpqo^ ab pfdklp ab ofnrbw^ b`lkjf`^ ab ilp bjmobp^oflp abi pb`qlo qrofpjl+ mrbpql nrb plk ilp afob`qlp _bkbcf`f^oflp ab bpq^ ^`qfsfa^a 'T^_i^ 4(- LUV`U 0 Ab[fYgc dYf W~d]hU dfcaYX]c dfcmYWhUXc Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc Años proyectados 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total gasto anual turistas extranjero 76627012 81788708 86950378 92112047 97273716 102435385 107597082 Población de la provincia Puno 248377 248377 248377 248377 248377 248377 248377 Ingreso percápita promedio proyectado 309 329 350 371 392 412 433 >iYbhY5 INEI | Prkl; 1/04Rbpmb`ql ^i bjmibl dbkbo^al mlo i^ ^`qfsfa^a qropqf`^+ ab ^`rboal ^ ilp bpqraflp ob^ifw^alp mlo i^ Ood^kfw^`fk Ikqbok^`flk^i abi To^_^gl+ ^ `bo`^ ab •Ei Lif]gac Yb Y` HYf5 HYfgdYWh]jUg XY WfYW]a]Ybhc m [YbYfUW]b XY Yad`Ycv) <Y `U Ocf`fk^ ab ob^ v Enrfml T`kf`l m^o^ ilp P^pbp Akafklp- OIT- 0887- pb qfbkb nrb pbdk i^p bpqfj^`flkbp ab i^ fksbpqfd^`fk jbk`flk^a^+ mlo `^a^ 0/ qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb fkdobp^k ^i m^p+ bufpqbk 4 mrbpqlp ab qo^_^gl afob`q^jbkqb obi^`flk^alp bk bi pb`qlo qrofpjl v mlo `^a^ US$ 0/+/// nrb fkdobp^k `ljl afsfp^p mlo qrofpjl buqo^kgbol+ pb dbkbo^ bk bi m^p rklp 3 mrbpqlp ab qo^_^gl+ `lk il `r^i ebjlp e^ii^al kjbol ab bjmiblp dbkbo^alp ^kr^ijbkqb mlo ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal bi kjbol ^kr^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bkqob dormlp ab 0/ qrofpq^p `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp rk moljbafl ab 27+873 dormlp m^o^ bi ^l 1/10 nrb jriqfmif`^alp mlo bi kjbol ab bjmiblp dbkbo^alp '4( mlo `^a^ dorml ab qrofpq^p qbkbjlp nrb m^o^ bpb ^l pb molvb`q^k 083+811 bjmiblp ^kr^ijbkqb 'T^_i^ 5(- LUV`U 1 =ad`Ycg [YbYfUXcg dcf Uff]Vcg XY hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg U Hibc Años proyectados 2015 2016 277634 296336 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Promedio 27763 29634 31504 33374 35244 37114 38984 Empleos generados 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 138817 148168 Total arribos a Puno Grupo de turistas Total empleos generados anualmente 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 315038 333739 352441 371143 389845 157519 166870 176221 185571 194922 >iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04- ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 0/4 Plo lqol i^al bi `i`ril ab i^ dbkbo^`fk ab bjmibl mlo ilp fkdobplp ab afsfp^p ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl pb l_qfbkb jbaf^kqb i^ afsfpfk ab abi d^pql ^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl bkqob ilp US$ 0/+/// nrb dbkbo^k ilp 3 mrbpqlp ab qo^_^gl `lk il nrb l_qbkbjlp rk moljbafl ab US$ 0/+65/ m^o^ bi ^l 1/10 nrb jriqfmif`^alp mlo bi kjbol ab bjmiblp dbkbo^alp qbkbjlp 32+/28 bjmiblp molvb`q^alp m^o^ bpb jfpjl ^l 'T^_i^ 6(- LUV`U 2 =ad`Ycg [YbYfUXcg dcf ]b[fYgc XY X]j]gUg U `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc Años proyectados 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total gasto 7662701 817887 869503 921120 972737 1024353 10759708 anual turistas 2 08 78 47 16 85 2 extranjero Miles de dólares 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 Promedio 7663 8179 8695 9211 9727 10244 10760 Empleos generados 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total empleos generados 30651 32715 34780 36845 38909 40974 43039 >iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04Ek `lkpb`rbk`f^ pl_ob i^ molvb``fk ab dbkbo^`fk qlq^i ab bjmiblp afob`qlp+ fkafob`qlp b fkar`falp `ljl obpriq^al abi ^oof_l v d^pql ^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ pb qfbkb molvb`q^al nrb m^o^ bi ^l 1/10 pb dbkbo^o•k 126+ 850 bjmiblp+ ^ `lkpb`rbk`f^ 0/5 ab i^ ^jmif^`fk ab i^ lcboq^ qropqf`^ fkkls^a^+ afcbobk`f^a^ v ab `^ifa^a abi molar`ql qropqf`l ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ nrb dbkbo^ j^vlo abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol v mlo il q^kql bi fk`objbkql bk bi d^pql qropqf`l 'T^_i^ 7(- ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- LUV`U 3 LchU` XY Yad`Ycg X]fYWhcg' ]bX]fYWhcg Y ]bXiW]Xcg [YbYfUXcg dcf Y` gYWhcf hif]gac Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc) Años proyectados 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total empleo por turismo en Puno 16946 8 18088 3 19229 9 20371 4 21513 0 22654 6 23796 1 >iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04;GF;DMKAGF=K L^ lcboq^ ^`qr^i ab ilp molar`qlp qropqf`lp pfdrb pfbkal bp`^p^ v kl afsbopfcf`^a^ l bpq•k bk mol`bpl ab abp^ooliil `ljl i^p mbkkpri^p ab C^m^`ef`^ v Cer`rfql+ pfbkal ^k ilp molar`qlp qropqf`lp qo^af`flk^ibp `ljl Uolp+ T^nrfib+ Aj^kq^kf v Sfiirpq^kf ilp j•p lcboq^alp mlo bi pb`qlo bjmobp^of^i- L^p mofk`fm^ibp `^rp^p nrb bumif`^k bi _^gl fk`objbkql bk i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl plk9 i^ `ob^`fk b fkkls^`fk ab krbslp molar`qlp qropqf`lp mrafbkal fk`objbkq^o bk 18+31/ qrofpq^p ^i ^l pf pb lcob`bk krbslp molar`qlp qropqf`lp qbkfbkal bpqob`e^ obi^`fk `lk i^ abj^ka^+ pbdrfa^ mlo i^ fkci^`fk b`lkjf`^ abi m^p nrb ^rjbkq^o^ bi mlabo ^anrfpfqfsl ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk bi Pbo bk 254 ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p; i^ fksbopfk buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^ bk bjmobp^p ab qrofpjl+ `rv^ fjmloq^k`f^ o^af`^ bk bi kl ^oof_l ab ,075 qrofpq^p ^i ^l+ ab_fbkal moljlsbopb i^ fksbopfk mofs^a^ bk Prkl abpab i^ dbpqfk m_if`^ m^o^ obsboqfo bpqb obpriq^al kbd^qfslDb j^kbo^ dbkbo^i+ i^ molvb``fk ab i^ abj^ka^ ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp klp jrbpqo^ obpriq^alp mlpfqfslp v ^ibkq^alobp m^o^ i^p fksbopflkbp crqro^p bk bi pb`qlo qrofpjl mlo i^ mlpf_ib sfpfq^ ab 278+734 qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^i ^l 1/10+ qbkfbkal rk fk`objbkql abi 57+8% ab i^ abj^ka^ ^`qr^i; mlo q^kql+ bi bjmibl q^j_fk pb fk`objbkq^o pfdkfcf`^qfs^jbkqb+ pfbjmob v `r^kal i^ dbpqfk m_if`^ abi qrofpjl bk Prkl pb^ bcf`fbkqb+ bi pb`qlo mofs^al v i^p ONGDp lofbkqbk prp bpcrbowlp m^o^ `ob^o molar`qlp fkkls^alp v afcbobk`f^alp nrb p^qfpc^d^k i^p bumb`q^qfs^p v kb`bpfa^abp ab ilp qrofpq^pJ=>=J=F;A8 9A9DAG?J8>A;8 ACERENZA+ M- '0888(- Aajfkfpqo^`fk abi Trofpjl9 Clk`bmqr^ifw^`fk v Ood^kfw^`fk- Tofii^p- Muf`lBULLN+ R- '088/(- L^p ^`qfsfa^abp qropqf`^p v ob`ob^`flk^ibp- Muf`l Tofii^pBOLETN ESTADSTICO- '1/04(- Dfob``fk ab Cljbo`fl Euqboflo v Trofpjl ab Prkl DIRCETURCASTILLO YUI+ C- '0876( •Trofpjl+ Frka^jbkql v Dbp^ooliil Lfj^PboCARRASCAL U- GONZLEZ YRODRIGUEZ B- '1///(- Ak•ifpfp b`lkljqof`l `lk Esfbtp- RA,MA Epm^^CRDENAS TABARES+ F- '0880(Cljbo`f^ifw^`fk abi qrofpjlMuf`l Tofii^pDOUGLAS P- '0880(-Dbp^ooliil Tropqf`l- Tofii^p Muf`l- ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(- 0/6 GEOFFREY A- '088/(- Trofpjl9 Rbmbo`rpflkbp b`lkjf`^p+ cpf`^p v pl`f^ibp- Tofii^pMuf`lINEI '1/04(- Cljmbkafl abm^oq^jbkq^i Prkl- bpq^apqf`l MARTNEZ C- '0867(- Epq^apqf`^ v jrbpqoblEpm^^MINISTERIO DE COMERCIO EXTERIOR Y TURISMO '1/04(- Epq^apqf`^p ab ^oof_lp ^ kfsbi N^`flk^iMINCETUR- 0/7 SILVA DUE•AS+ M- '1/01(- Mlabil jriqfs^of^kqb m^o^ i^ bs^ir^`fk abi qrofpjl oro^i bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl- UNA PrklSOSA DE LA CRUZ C- '1///(- Llp pbosf`flp Tropqf`lp9 `r^ifa^abp v jbaf`fkS^k M^o`lp- Lfj^PROMPERU '1/03(- Pbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbolLfj^ PboWEBSTER A- '1///(- Epq^apqf`^ ^mif`^a^ ^ ilp kbdl`flp v i^ b`lklj^- Iotfk M`Go^t,Hfii- Clilj_f^- ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-