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X2 =
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X4 =
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X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
2005
141590
63,2
3,30
1009
1,6
5
2006
154666
63,4
3,27
669
2,0
6
2007
174212
63,5
3,13
560
1,8
6
2008
198773
63,8
2,93
659
5,8
7
2009
181121
72,3
3,01
734
2,9
7
2010
177218
76,6
2,83
546
1,5
8
2011
193079
76,6
2,75
422
3,4
9
2012
252286
81,6
2,64
344
3,7
10
2013
267724
83,1
2,70
543
2,8
11
2014
268643
83,2
2,84
675
3,2
11
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LUV`U JY[fYg]‚b XY` acXY`c YWcbcahf]Wc
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/01/15 Time: 00:07
Sample: 2005 2014
Included observations: 10
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
15462.07
558047.9
0.027707
0.9792
X1
-186.1670
433.7997
-0.429154
0.6899
X2
220.3824
1215.451
0.181317
0.8649
X3
16.61306
69.66835
0.238459
0.8232
X4
365.1321
999.8217
0.365197
0.7335
X5
29420.17
13196.51
2.229390
0.0897
R-squared
0.929213
Mean dependent var
200931.2
Adjusted R-squared
0.840729
S.D. dependent var
46043.84
S.E. of regression
18375.52
Akaike info criterion
22.75914
Sum squared resid
1.35E+09
Schwarz criterion
22.94069
Log likelihood
-107.7957
F-statistic
10.50150
Prob(F-statistic)
0.020391
Durbin-Watson stat
2.546809
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400000
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06
08
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14
16
18
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?=F=J8;A|F &lt;= =EHD=G =
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Ei pb`qlo qrofpjl dbkbo^ rk kfsbi ab bjmibl
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pr_pb`qlobp ab obpq^ro^kqbp '31%( v ilp ab
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bpq^_ib`fjfbkqlp ab bpm^o`fjfbkql bp ab rk 01%
v ilp elqbibp dbkbo^k bi 6% abi bjmibl- Aoqbp^k’^p
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bp rk bcb`ql _bk‘cf`l- Eufpqbk lmloqrkfa^abp ab
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pr afkbol crbo^ ab bplp elqbibp `ob^k
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bjmibl bk bi o^jl ab i^ `lkpqor``f”k- L^p
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ab ^_^pqb`fjfbkql qro’pqf`l+ mbol kl obpriq^
afob`q^jbkqb ab ilp d^pqlp abi qrofpq^Ei bjmibl fkar`fal nrb bp bi ^af`flk^i
obpriq^kqb ab ilp bcb`qlp abi qrofpjl+ v^ nrb
ilp obpfabkqbp il`^ibp d^pq^k krbs^jbkqb
bi afkbol nrb d^k^olk-
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pb`qlo bk pr j^vlo’^ bp glsbk+ ab jbaf^k^
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abpbjmb“^k pr ^`qfsfa^a+ plk _^pq^kqb mob`^of^pEpql mol_^_ibjbkqb pb ab_^ ^ i^p molmf^p
`^o^`qbo’pqf`^p abi pb`qlo- Db_fal ^ i^ crboqb
bpq^`flk^ifa^a bufpqbkqb+ i^p bjmobp^p ab bpqb
pb`qlo qfbkbk ml`l fk`bkqfsl m^o^ `lkqo^q^o j^kl
ab l_o^ mboj^kbkqb v mlo bi `lkqo^ofl mbojfqbk
nrb prp qo^_^g^alobp pb^k c^jfif^obp kl
objrkbo^alp v i^_lobk glok^a^p buqbkp^p- Ai
jfpjl qfbjml+ bi eb`el nrb lmbobk pfk `lkqo^ql
bp p’kqlj^ nrb i^ mol_^_fifa^a ab abqb``f”k mlo
m^oqb ab i^p ^rqlofa^abp bp jrv _^g^- Epqb bp rk
p’kqlj^ ab il ^rk pr_abp^oolii^al nrb pb
bk`rbkqo^ bpqb pb`qlo bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab PrklEpqb bp rk `i^ol ifjfq^kqb m^o^ bi abp^ooliil abi
pb`qlo a^al nrb bk qlal bi jrkal bp i^ `^ifa^a
ab i^ ^qbk`f”k bk bi pbosf`fl bi nrb mbojfqb bi
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qrofpjl pl_ob ilp fkdobplp abi m^’p bkcobkq^k
j•iqfmibp mol_ibj^p jbqlali”df`lp- Ek mofjbo
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afob`qlp b fkafob`qlp abi `ob`fjfbkql ab bpqb pb`qlo
pl_ob bi obpql ab i^ b`lklj’^- Plo lqol i^al+ ^rk
pf bufpqfbo^ bpq^ jbqlalild’^ ^m^ob`bo’^k
krjbolplp mol_ibj^p ab fkcloj^`f”k- Db eb`el+
bk i^p `rbkq^p k^`flk^ibp kl bufpqbk obdfpqolp abi
pb`qlo qrofpjl‡ ab j^kbo^ pbm^o^a^ v
mol_^_ibjbkqb ilp `ljmlkbkqbp abi pb`qlo
qro’pqf`l cfdro^k bk `^pf qlalp ilp ^pmb`qlp abi
PBI- Apfjfpjl+ bufpqbk mol_ibj^p ab
`lkcf^_fifa^a ab i^ fkcloj^`f”k sfk`ri^alp ^i
eb`el nrb i^ molar``f”k ab bpqb pb`qlo bp
rpr^ijbkqb kl q^kdf_ib+ `ljl bk qlal pbosf`flAp’+ bufpqbk obpqof``flkbp jbqlali”df`^p v ab
afpmlkf_fifa^a v `^ifa^a ab i^ fkcloj^`f”k m^o^
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i^ b`lklj’^Plo bpq^p o^wlkbp+ bk bpqb bpqrafl jlpqo^jlp rk^
sfpf”k m^klojf`^ ab i^ fjmloq^k`f^ ab bpqb
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
0/2
pb`qlo bk bi bjmibl v ilp fkdobplp ^ m^oqfo ab i^
l_pbos^`f”k ab ^idrklp a^qlp bufpqbkqbp- Ek
m^oqf`ri^o pb ^k^ifw^ i^ fkcloj^`f”k pl_ob bi d^pql
abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol bk bi Pbo• mr_if`^al mlo
Poljmbo• bk bi mbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol abi
^“l 1/02+ pfk qlj^o bk `rbkq^ bi d^pql bk
qo^kpmloqb fkqbok^`flk^i m^o^ iibd^o ^i Pbo•+
qbkbjlp nrb bi d^pql moljbafl ob^ifw^al mlo bi
qrofpq^ s^`^`flkfpq^ buqo^kgbol bk bi Pbo• crb ab
US$ 0+0/5 jfbkqo^p nrb bi d^pql af^ofl moljbafl
pb bpqfj^ bk US$ 027 a”i^obp ^jbof`^klpEk bpqb pbkqfal+ ^i jriqfmif`^o bi d^pql af^ofl mbo
`•mfq^ abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol mlo bi moljbafl ab
bpq^a’^ abi qrofpq^ bk Prkl+ l_qbkbjlp rk d^pql
mbo `•mfq^ moljbafl ab US$ 165-// rqfifw^alp
bk afsboplp d^pqlp molmflp ab i^ ^`qfsfa^a qro’pqf`^
`ljl+ elpmba^gb+ ^ifjbkq^`f”k+ qo^kpmloqb+
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LchU` XY [Ughc dYf W~d]hU XY` hif]ghU YlhfUb^Yfc Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc
Turista Extranjero
USD
Gasto diario promedio US$
138,00
Promedio de estad&iacute;a en Puno
2
Total Gasto Per c&aacute;pita US$
276
&gt;iYbhY5 Pbocfi abi qrofpq^ buqo^kgbol | PROMPER•; 1/02
Clk i^ molvb``f”k ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p
buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl mlabjlp
`^i`ri^o bi fk`objbkql abi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al
m^o^ ilp mo”ufjlp ^“lp `ljl obpriq^al abi
fk`objbkql ab i^ abj^ka^ abi molar`ql qro’pqf`l
ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ jriqfmif`^kal bi k•jbol
qlq^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ Prkl
mlo bi moljbafl ab d^pql mbo `•mfq^ ab `^a^ qrofpq^
bk Prkl+ `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp bi d^pql ^kr^i
ab ilp ^“lp m^p^alp v bi d^pql ^kr^i molvb`q^al
ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb `ljl obpriq^al pb
bpmbo^ nrb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10 qbkd^jlp fkdobplp
_orqlp mlo US$ 0/6{486+/71 jfiilkbp 'T^_i^ 3(-
LUV`U /
?Ughc UbiU` XY `cg hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg Yb `U dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc
A&ntilde;os
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total arribos
a Puno
277634
296336
315038
333739
352441
371143
389845
Total Gasto
Perc&aacute;pita
276
276
276
276
276
276
276
Total gasto
anual
76627012 81788708 86950378 92112047 97273716 102435385 107597082
&gt;iYbhY5 DIRCETUR | Prkl; 1/04
Db ^`rboal ^ ilp obpriq^alp l_qbkfalp abi d^pql
qlq^i ^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^
molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ mlabjlp `^i`ri^o bi fkdobpl
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molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal bi d^pql qlq^i ^kr^i
0/3
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k•jbol ab e^_fq^kqbp ab i^ molsfk`f^ `lk il nrb
l_qbkbjlp rk fkdobpl moljbafl molvb`q^al
^kr^i ab US$ 322 mlo e^_fq^kqb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10+
nrb bp prmboflo ^ i^ ab ilp ^“lp m^p^alp+ fkdobplp
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
_orqlp nrb pb obcibg^k bk i^ jrbpqo^ ab pfdklp ab
ofnrbw^ b`lk”jf`^ ab ilp bjmobp^oflp abi pb`qlo
qrofpjl+ mrbpql nrb plk ilp afob`qlp _bkbcf`f^oflp
ab bpq^ ^`qfsfa^a 'T^_i^ 4(-
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A&ntilde;os
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total gasto
anual turistas
extranjero
76627012
81788708
86950378
92112047
97273716
102435385
107597082
Poblaci&oacute;n de
la provincia
Puno
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
248377
Ingreso
perc&aacute;pita
promedio
proyectado
309
329
350
371
392
412
433
&gt;iYbhY5 INEI | Prkl; 1/04Rbpmb`ql ^i bjmibl dbkbo^al mlo i^ ^`qfsfa^a
qro’pqf`^+ ab ^`rboal ^ ilp bpqraflp ob^ifw^alp mlo
i^ Ood^kfw^`f”k Ikqbok^`flk^i abi To^_^gl+ ^ `bo`^
ab •Ei Lif]gac Yb Y` HYfƒ5 HYfgdYWh]jUg XY
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bpqfj^`flkbp ab i^ fksbpqfd^`f”k jbk`flk^a^+ mlo
`^a^ 0/ qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp nrb fkdobp^k ^i m^’p+
bufpqbk 4 mrbpqlp ab qo^_^gl afob`q^jbkqb
obi^`flk^alp bk bi pb`qlo qrofpjl v mlo `^a^ US$
0/+/// nrb fkdobp^k `ljl afsfp^p mlo qrofpjl
buqo^kgbol+ pb dbkbo^ bk bi m^’p rklp 3 mrbpqlp
ab qo^_^gl+ `lk il `r^i ebjlp e^ii^al k•jbol ab
bjmiblp dbkbo^alp ^kr^ijbkqb mlo ilp qrofpq^p
buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ afsfafbkal
bi k•jbol ^kr^i ab ^oof_lp ab qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp
bkqob dormlp ab 0/ qrofpq^p `lk il `r^i l_qbkbjlp
rk moljbafl ab 27+873 dormlp m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10
nrb jriqfmif`^alp mlo bi k•jbol ab bjmiblp
dbkbo^alp '4( mlo `^a^ dorml ab qrofpq^p qbkbjlp
nrb m^o^ bpb ^“l pb molvb`q^k 083+811 bjmiblp
^kr^ijbkqb 'T^_i^ 5(-
LUV`U 1
=ad`Ycg [YbYfUXcg dcf Uff]Vcg XY hif]ghUg YlhfUb^Yfcg U Hibc
A&ntilde;os proyectados
2015
2016
277634
296336
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Promedio
27763
29634
31504
33374
35244
37114
38984
Empleos
generados
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
138817
148168
Total arribos a
Puno
Grupo de turistas
Total empleos
generados
anualmente
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
315038 333739 352441 371143 389845
157519 166870 176221 185571 194922
&gt;iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04-
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
0/4
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bjmibl mlo ilp fkdobplp ab afsfp^p ab qrofpjl
buqo^kgbol ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl pb l_qfbkb
jbaf^kqb i^ afsfpf”k ab abi d^pql ^kr^i ab ilp
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl bkqob
ilp US$ 0/+/// nrb dbkbo^k ilp 3 mrbpqlp ab
qo^_^gl `lk il nrb l_qbkbjlp rk moljbafl ab
US$ 0/+65/ m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10 nrb jriqfmif`^alp
mlo bi k•jbol ab bjmiblp dbkbo^alp qbkbjlp
32+/28 bjmiblp molvb`q^alp m^o^ bpb jfpjl ^“l
'T^_i^ 6(-
LUV`U 2
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A&ntilde;os
proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total gasto
7662701 817887 869503 921120 972737 1024353 10759708
anual turistas
2
08
78
47
16
85
2
extranjero
Miles de
d&oacute;lares
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
Promedio
7663
8179
8695
9211
9727
10244
10760
Empleos
generados
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Total
empleos
generados
30651
32715
34780
36845
38909
40974
43039
&gt;iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04Ek `lkpb`rbk`f^ pl_ob i^ molvb``f”k ab
dbkbo^`f”k qlq^i ab bjmiblp afob`qlp+ fkafob`qlp
b fkar`falp `ljl obpriq^al abi ^oof_l v d^pql
^kr^i ab ilp qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk i^ molsfk`f^
ab Prkl+ pb qfbkb molvb`q^al nrb m^o^ bi ^“l 1/10
pb dbkbo^o•k 126+ 850 bjmiblp+ ^ `lkpb`rbk`f^
0/5
ab i^ ^jmif^`f”k ab i^ lcboq^ qro’pqf`^ fkkls^a^+
afcbobk`f^a^ v ab `^ifa^a abi molar`ql qro’pqf`l
ab i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl+ nrb dbkbo^ j^vlo
abj^ka^ ab qrofpjl buqo^kgbol v mlo il q^kql bi
fk`objbkql bk bi d^pql qro’pqf`l 'T^_i^ 7(-
ESdWabO 6cSabW]\Sa RS F]QW]Z]UWO1 =\dSabWUOQWy\ S\ 6WS\QWO f 7SaO``]ZZ] $ I]Z% , Ao( $ )'(-
LUV`U 3
LchU` XY Yad`Ycg X]fYWhcg' ]bX]fYWhcg Y ]bXiW]Xcg [YbYfUXcg dcf Y` gYWhcf hif]gac Yb `U
dfcj]bW]U XY Hibc)
A&ntilde;os proyectados
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total empleo por
turismo en Puno
16946
8
18088
3
19229
9
20371
4
21513
0
22654
6
23796
1
&gt;iYbhY5 OIT; 1/04;GF;DMKAGF=K
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pfbkal bp`^p^ v kl afsbopfcf`^a^ l bpq•k bk
mol`bpl ab abp^ooliil `ljl i^p mbk’kpri^p ab
C^m^`ef`^ v Cer`rfql+ pfbkal ^•k ilp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp qo^af`flk^ibp `ljl Uolp+ T^nrfib+
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pb`qlo bjmobp^of^i- L^p mofk`fm^ibp `^rp^p nrb
bumif`^k bi _^gl fk`objbkql bk i^ abj^ka^ ab
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp ^ i^ molsfk`f^ ab Prkl plk9
i^ `ob^`f”k b fkkls^`f”k ab krbslp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp mrafbkal fk`objbkq^o bk 18+31/
qrofpq^p ^i ^“l pf pb lcob`bk krbslp molar`qlp
qro’pqf`lp qbkfbkal bpqob`e^ obi^`f”k `lk i^
abj^ka^+ pbdrfa^ mlo i^ fkci^`f”k b`lk”jf`^ abi
m^’p nrb ^rjbkq^o’^ bi mlabo ^anrfpfqfsl ab ilp
qrofpq^p buqo^kgbolp bk bi Pbo• bk 254 ^oof_lp ab
qrofpq^p; i^ fksbopf”k buqo^kgbo^ afob`q^ bk
bjmobp^p ab qrofpjl+ `rv^ fjmloq^k`f^ o^af`^ bk
bi kl ^oof_l ab ,075 qrofpq^p ^i ^“l+ ab_fbkal
moljlsbopb i^ fksbopf”k mofs^a^ bk Prkl abpab
i^ dbpqf”k m•_if`^ m^o^ obsboqfo bpqb obpriq^al
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