Impactos y Vulnerabilidad J.J. Camarero1,2*, G. Sangüesa-Barreda3, J.C. Linares4 1 ARAID, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Apdo. 202, 50192 Zaragoza, España 2 Dept. d’Ecologia, Fac. Biología, Universitat de Barcelona, Avda. Diagonal 645, 08028 Barcelona, España 3 Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), Avda. Montañana 1005, Apdo. 202, 50192 Zaragoza, España 4 Departamento de Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo Olavide, Ctra. Utrera km. 1, 41002 Sevilla, España *Correo electrónico: jjcamarero@ipe.csic.es 18 El decaimiento de abetares pirenaicos como paradigma de vulnerabilidad de los bosques ante el cambio climático Resultados clave 1XHVWURVHVWXGLRVDSXQWDQODLPSRUWDQFLDGHORVOHJDGRV KLVWyULFRV FRPR IDFWRUHV TXH FRQGLFLRQDQ ODV UHVSXHVWDV DFWXDOHVGHORVERVTXHVDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR /D KLVWRULD GH XVR GH ORV DEHWDUHV HVSDxROHV KD GHWHUPLQDGR VX HVWUXFWXUD DFWXDO OD FXDO FRQGLFLRQD VX UHVSXHVWDDOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR (O FDOHQWDPLHQWR UHJLRQDO \ ODV VHTXtDV GH ¿QDOHV GHO VLJOR ;; GHVHQFDGHQDURQ HO GHFDLPLHQWR IRUHVWDO GH DEHWDUHV SDUWLFXODUPHQWH HQ ]RQDV GHO 3LULQHR FHQWUDO \ RFFLGHQWDO FRQ PHQRV SUHFLSLWDFLyQ HVWLYDO \ PD\RU LQWHQVLGDGGHWDODVHQHOSDVDGR 6LHODFWXDODXPHQWRGHWHPSHUDWXUDVYDDFRPSDxDGRGH XQ GHVFHQVR GH KXPHGDG DWPRVIpULFD SRGUtD REVHUYDUVH XQGHFOLYHPiVJHQHUDOL]DGRGHOFUHFLPLHQWRDXPHQWDQGR DVtODYXOQHUDELOLGDGGHHVWRVERVTXHV Contexto 3DUD HQWHQGHU HO GHFDLPLHQWR GHO ERVTXH KDFH IDOWD DQWHV SODQWHDUVH DOJXQDV SUHJXQWDV ¢&yPR KDFLD GyQGH\FXiQWRKDQFDPELDGRORVERVTXHVHQODV~OWLPDV GpFDGDV"¢(QTXpFRQWH[WRVFOLPiWLFRVRFLDOHFRQyPLFR KLVWyULFR\GHPDQHMR"¢&XiOKDVLGRODPDJQLWXGFDQWLGDG \ OD WDVD UDSLGH] GH HVWRV FDPELRV" (Q QXHVWUR FDVR ¢KDQ VLGR ORV ERVTXHV HVSDxROHV LPSDFWDGRV SRU HVWRV FDPELRV" 6LQ GXGD HVWDV SUHJXQWDV UHFRJHQ FXHVWLRQHV GLItFLOHV SDUD XQD EUHYH UHVHxD SHUR LQWHQWDUHPRV GDUOHV DOJXQD UHVSXHVWD DQDOL]DQGR LPSDFWRV UHODFLRQDGRV DO PHQRVSDUFLDOPHQWHFRQHOFDPELRFOLPiWLFR\FyPRKDQ KHFKRPiVYXOQHUDEOHVDOJXQRVDEHWDUHVSLUHQDLFRV (O FRQFHSWR GHO GHFDLPLHQWR GHO ERVTXH KD HYROXFLRQDGR PXFKR GHVGH TXH 0DQLRQ SURSXVLHUD VX PRGHOR FRQFHSWXDO HQ HO TXH IDFWRUHV GH SUHGLVSRVLFLyQ LQFLWDFLyQ \ FRQWULEXFLyQ FDXVDEDQ HO GHFDLPLHQWRGHOiUERO$TXHOPRGHORFRQVLGHUDEDTXHOD SpUGLGDRDOWHUDFLRQHVGHFUHFLPLHQWRPHQRUFUHFLPLHQWR SULPDULR\VHFXQGDULRSURGXFFLyQGHEURWHVHSLFyUPLFRV HWF \ YLJRU PD\RU GHIROLDFLyQ \ YXOQHUDELOLGDG IUHQWH D SDWyJHQRV DVRFLDGDV DO GHFDLPLHQWR HUDQ JHQHUDOHV HVGHFLUSRGtDQDIHFWDUDGLVWLQWDVHVSHFLHV\QRVLHPSUH FRQOOHYDEDQ OD PXHUWH GHO iUERO HV GHFLU HO SURFHVR SRGtDVHUUHYHUVLEOH'HOPLVPRPRGRODYLVLyQVRFLDO\ FLHQWt¿FD GHO SURFHVR KD FDPELDGR HQRUPHPHQWH HQ ORV ~OWLPRVDxRV(QWUHODVGpFDGDVGHORVDxRV\GHO VLJORSDVDGRORVIHQyPHQRVGHGHFDLPLHQWRHUDQFRPXQHV HQ ]RQDV LQGXVWULDOL]DGDV GH (XURSD \ 1RUWH $PpULFD DIHFWDQGR SULQFLSDOPHQWH D ERVTXHV WHPSODGRV 6NHOO\ ,QQHV 6H FRQVLGHUy HQWRQFHV TXH OD OOXYLD iFLGD HUD HO SULQFLSDO DJHQWH FDXVDQWH DXQTXH DOJXQRV DXWRUHV VHxDODEDQ WDPELpQ IDFWRUHV FOLPiWLFRV GH HVWUpV &DPDUHURHWDO $ PHGLGD TXH VH KD LPSXHVWR OD YLVLyQ GHO FDPELRFOLPiWLFRFRPRXQRGHORVSULQFLSDOHVIDFWRUHVGH FDPELR JOREDO DIHFWDQGR D OD ELRVIHUD OD DSUR[LPDFLyQ DO SUREOHPD GHO GHFDLPLHQWR GHO ERVTXH KD FDPELDGR $KRUD VH FRQVLGHUD TXH H[LVWH XQ IHQyPHQR JOREDO GH PRUWDOLGDG DFHQWXDGD TXH DIHFWD D WRGR WLSR GH ERVTXHV ERUHDOHVWHPSODGRVWURSLFDOHVPHGLWHUUiQHRVRGH]RQDV VHPLiULGDV\TXHYLHQHPHGLDGRSRUIDFWRUHVFOLPiWLFRV GHHVWUpVSULQFLSDOPHQWHHODXPHQWRGHWHPSHUDWXUDV\XQ PD\RUHVWUpVKtGULFRGHELGRDVHTXtDVLQWHQVDVRIUHFXHQWHV UHYLVDGR SRU $OOHQ HW DO (VWRV IHQyPHQRV GH SpUGLGD GH FUHFLPLHQWR HQ UHVSXHVWD D VHTXtDV VHYHUDV SUHFHGHQHSLVRGLRVGHGHIROLDFLyQ\PRUWDOLGDGDFXVDGDV TXHVRQHVSHFt¿FRVGHFDGDHVSHFLHDIHFWDQGRPiVDXQDV TXHDRWUDVHQIXQFLyQGHOXVRTXHKDFHQGHOFDUERQRRGH FyPRVX[LOHPDUHVSRQGHDODIDOWDGHDJXD%UHVKHDUVHW 243 DO$~QH[LVWHQPXFKDVFXHVWLRQHVDELHUWDVVREUH FyPRVHSURGXFHHVWHGHFDLPLHQWR\PXHUWHGHOiUEROVL GHSHQGHPiVGHIDOORVKLGUiXOLFRVRGHOWUDQVSRUWH\XVR GHFDUERKLGUDWRV\SRUTXpFLHUWDVHVSHFLHVSREODFLRQHV R LQGLYLGXRV VRQ PiV VHQVLEOHV D ODV VHTXtDV TXH RWURV 0F'RZHOOHWDO (VWH HVFHQDULR JOREDO GH FDVRV GH GHFDLPLHQWR D PHQXGR LUUHYHUVLEOHV DVRFLDGRV D DOWDV WDVDV GH PRUWDOLGDG \ DIHFWDQGR D GLIHUHQWHV WLSRV GH HVSHFLHV \ ERVTXHV UHTXLHUH QXHYRV SODQWHDPLHQWRV (Q SULPHU OXJDUGHEHPRVVLWXDUORHQHOFRQWH[WRGHFDPELRJOREDO HQ HO TXH GLVWLQWRV SURFHVRV FRPR ORV FDPELRV GH XVR LQWHUDFFLRQDQ FRQ HO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR 3RU HMHPSOR ORV ERVTXHVHVSDxROHVHVWiQHQSOHQRSURFHVRGHH[SDQVLyQD YHFHVUHFXSHUDQGR]RQDVDQWLJXDPHQWHIRUHVWDGDVGHVGH ORV DxRV (VWH DXPHQWR GH FREHUWXUD \ GHQVLGDG D PHQXGR SURSLFLDGR SRU PHGLGDV FRQVHUYDFLRQLVWDV KD IDFLOLWDGR DOJXQRV FDVRV GH GHFDLPLHQWR \ PRUWDOLGDG VHOHFWLYD HQ UHVSXHVWD D VHTXtDV VHYHUDV D ¿QDOHV GHO V ;; 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Juan de la Peña JP Paco Mayor-high PM1 Paco Mayor-abajo PM2 Puente Corralones PC Lierde LI Peña Oroel-arriba OO Peña Oroel-abajo PO Los Abetazos AB Castiello de Jaca CA Izquierda del Aragón IA Paco de Villanúa-arriba VN Paco de Villanúa-abajo VI Paco Asieso AS Panticosa PA Yésero YE Guara GU Diazas DI Orús OR Montinier MO Azirón AZ Peña Montañesa PN Collubert CO Selva Negra SN Collado de Sahún SA BA Ballibierna NW N–NE N–NE N–NW N–NW N–NW N–NE N–NE N N NW N–NE N–NW N N–NE N–NW W–SW N N–NW N–NW N–NW NW N–NW N–NW N–NW N N–NW N–NE N–NE N–NE N–NW W–NW Altitud (m) 918 ± 3 1232 ± 5 1073 ± 3 1009 ± 3 1400 ± 10 1272 ± 5 1195 ± 6 1393 ± 33 1353 ± 2 1313 ± 13 1248 ± 3 1222 ± 3 1604 ± 15 1587 ± 17 1403 ± 9 1175 ± 15 1478 ± 5 1270 ± 2 1234 ± 4 1327 ± 3 1280 ± 4 1399 ± 4 1428 ± 9 1528 ± 4 1370 ± 5 1400 ± 30 1613 ± 17 1519 ± 22 1474 ± 10 1431 ± 7 1789 ± 5 1600 ± 4 Pendiente (º) 30 ± 4 27 ± 3 26 ± 1 32 ± 1 23 ± 1 22 ± 2 34 ± 3 22 ± 2 22 ± 0 39 ± 4 32 ± 5 21 ± 3 25 ± 10 36 ± 3 20 ± 4 25 ± 2 27 ± 2 24 ± 1 22 ± 2 33 ± 2 27 ± 3 30 ± 2 26 ± 1 22 ± 2 25 ± 2 30 ± 2 25 ± 2 21 ± 3 22 ± 12 24 ± 4 15 ± 9 30 ± 6 dap (cm) 61,3 ± 1,6 35,0 ± 2,3 43,0 ± 1,2 38,1 ± 2,7 64,2 ± 2,2 58,2 ± 3,1 66,6 ± 3,0 46,0 ± 2,3 45,8 ± 2,3 54,8 ± 4,1 47,5 ± 3,0 74,1 ± 4,1 59,1 ± 2,8 46,5 ± 3,9 75,0 ± 4,4 41,2 ± 2,0 69,0 ± 5,6 37,4 ± 3,0 42,7 ± 2,5 60,6 ± 3,6 71,0 ± 2,7 48,1 ± 3,1 52,5 ± 2,6 56,5 ± 2,2 42,3 ± 1,5 46,1 ± 1,6 68,0 ± 3,6 45,1 ± 2,2 56,0 ± 4,4 49,5 ± 3,5 60,1 ± 2,8 49,6 ± 2,3 Área Altura (m) basimétrica 27,5 ± 0,8 18,2 ± 0,9 21,4 ± 0,6 20,8 ± 0,8 30,1 ± 1,1 22,1 ± 0,7 27,2 ± 0,9 16,4 ± 1,3 24,0 ± 0,5 24,1 ± 0,6 21,6 ± 1,1 27,5 ± 0,6 22,1 ± 0,6 19,6 ± 0,9 22,2 ± 0,9 19,1 ± 0,7 24,9 ± 0,9 25,5 ± 1,4 24,1 ± 1,2 25,3 ± 0,7 24,7 ± 1,0 20,0 ± 0,5 20,0 ± 0,7 25,9 ± 0,6 24,6 ± 0,6 25,5 ± 0,8 25,2 ± 0,5 18,7 ± 0,7 21,7 ± 0,4 23,2 ± 0,6 22,7 ± 0,8 21,3 ± 0,9 (m2 ha-1) Edad a 1,3m (años) 45,9 10,1 24,7 24,8 55,8 38,3 51,7 17,9 31,7 34,2 43,3 87,1 43,8 34,6 63,8 30,5 56,0 20,2 41,6 37,2 56,3 31,7 13,5 45,4 39,5 29,6 33,3 28,5 29,9 29,1 36,5 48,6 96 ± 3 88 ± 5 114 ± 7 104 ± 6 129 ± 8 115 ± 9 152 ± 14 95 ± 9 97 ± 3 104 ± 8 64 ± 5 96 ± 6 95 ± 4 77 ± 6 65 ± 6 131 ± 9 103 ± 15 100 ± 7 96 ± 4 87 ± 7 117 ± 9 64 ± 4 80 ± 9 98 ± 6 108 ± 4 117 ± 9 90 ± 5 78 ± 5 83 ± 10 74 ± 3 117 ± 24 107 ± 5 Anchura del anillo de Especies de crecimiento, periodo árboles‡ 1950-1999 (mm) 2,90 ± 0,12 1,70 ± 0,09 1,67 ± 0,10 1,48 ± 0,11 2,19 ± 0,20 2,57 ± 0,25 2,31 ± 0,20 2,37 ± 0,19 2,01 ± 0,13 2,50 ± 0,22 3,67 ± 0,24 3,08 ± 0,23 2,88 ± 0,18 2,62 ± 0,11 4,70 ± 0,20 1,31 ± 0,11 3,23 ± 0,25 1,88 ± 0,16 2,08 ± 0,13 3,26 ± 0,22 2,50 ± 0,13 3,52 ± 0,15 3,11 ± 0,16 2,75 ± 0,13 1,73 ± 0,03 1,61 ± 0,09 3,41 ± 0,17 2,77 ± 0,18 3,01 ± 0,21 2,90 ± 0,14 2,38 ± 0,25 2,12 ± 0,09 ‡Abreviaturas de las especies de árboles acompañantes: Fs, Fagus sylvatica L.; Ps = Pinus sylvestris L.; Pu = Pinus uncinata Ram. 244 Fs, Ps Fs Fs Fs, Ps Fs Fs, Ps Fs, Ps Ps, Fs Ps, Fs Fs, Ps Fs, Ps Fs, Ps Ps Ps Ps, Fs Ps Ps, Fs Ps Ps, Fs Ps, Fs Ps, Fs Ps Ps, Fs Ps, Fs Ps, Fs Ps Ps, Pu Ps Fs, Ps Ps, Fs Pu, Ps Fs PHQRVGHVGHPHGLDGRVGHODSDVDGDGpFDGDGHORVDxRV &DPDUHUR HW DO (VWH GHVFHQVR GH FUHFLPLHQWR QR FRUUHVSRQGH D IHQyPHQRV GHELGRV D SHUWXUEDFLRQHVORFDOHVSHMLQVHFWRVGHIROLDGRUHVRDOD SUHVHQFLDVHOHFWLYDGHKRQJRVSDWyJHQRVGHUDt]2OLYD &ROLQDV1XHVWUDDSUR[LPDFLyQDOSUREOHPDVHKD EDVDGRHQHOHVWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHUHGHVGHVHJXLPLHQWRHQ HO 3LULQHR DUDJRQpV )LJXUD HQ ODV TXH VH KD GHVFULWR WDPDxR HGDG GHIROLDFLyQ FRQVLGHUDGD XQ LQGLFDGRU GH YLJRU 'REEHUWLQ DEXQGDQFLD GH PXpUGDJR \ PRUWDOLGDG HQ ERVTXHV FRQ GLVWLQWRV QLYHOHV GH GHFDLPLHQWR 7DEOD (VWD FDUDFWHUL]DFLyQ SXQWXDO VH KD FRPSOHPHQWDGR FRQ XQ DQiOLVLV UHWURVSHFWLYR EDVDGR HQ OD GHQGURFURQRORJtD FLHQFLD TXH HVWXGLD ORV DQLOORVDQXDOHVGHFUHFLPLHQWR6HKDUHFRQVWUXLGRDVtOD KLVWRULDGHFUHFLPLHQWRUDGLDO\IRUPDFLyQGHPDGHUDGH iUEROHVFRQGLIHUHQWHVJUDGRVGHGHIROLDFLyQLQFOX\HQGR iUEROHV PXHUWRV FX\D IHFKD GH PXHUWH SXHGH VHU GDWDGD UHFRQRFLHQGR VXV DQLOORV FDUDFWHUtVWLFRV$ FRQWLQXDFLyQ UHVXPLPRV QXHVWURV SULQFLSDOHV UHVXOWDGRV DWULEXLEOHV DO FDPELR FOLPiWLFR \ VXV LPSOLFDFLRQHV DVt FRPR ODV HVWUDWHJLDVSURSXHVWDVSDUDPLWLJDUHVRVHIHFWRV Figura 1. 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