Cap 36- Aplicación de los Modelos de Distribución de Especies (MDE)

Impactos y Vulnerabilidad
M.A. Zavala1*, P. Ruiz-Benito1,2, M. Benito-Garzón3,4, R. García-Valdés1,5
1
Grupo de Ecología y Restauración Forestal, Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, España
2
Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences. University of Stirling.FK9 4LA, Stirling, United Kingdom
3
CNRS, Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, CNRS, Orsay Cedex, Francia
4
CNRS, Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, Francia
5
CNRS, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Montpellier, Francia
*
36
Correo electrónico : madezavala@gmail.com
Aplicación de los Modelos de Distribución de Especies (MDE)
para el análisis de los efectos del cambio climático
en los bosques ibéricos
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Modelo
Referencia
Variable respuesta
Escala
Modelo de Distribución
de Especies (MDE)
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2008)
Rango de distribución
de la especie
Malla 1 km2
(20 especies)
MDE parametrizados
con plasticidad
y adaptación local
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2011)
Supervivencia
y rango de distribución
de la especie
Observacionales (IFN)
Experimentales
(ensayos de procedencia)
(2 especies)
MDE parametrizados
con crecimiento
y mortalidad
Benito-Garzón et al.
(2013)
Crecimiento, mortalidad
y rango de distribución
de la especie
Parcela IFN
(11 especies)
Modelo estocástico
dinámico de ocupación
de teselas (SPOM)
García-Valdés et al.
(2013)
Colonizaciones
y extinciones locales
(escenarios con
y sin cambio climático)
Parcela IFN
(10 especies)
Modelo estocástico
dinámico de ocupación
de teselas (SPOM)
García-Valdés et al.
(En prep.)
Colonizaciones
y extinciones locales
(escenarios con
y sin cambios de hábitat)
Parcela IFN
(23 especies)
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(i) Modelos de distribución de especies tradicionales
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(iv) Modelos dinámicos espacialmente explícitos
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QLFKRSDUDPHWUL]DGRVFRQYDULDEOHVGHPRJUiÀFDV%HQLWR*DU]yQHWDOGHUHFKDHQWUHODVFRQGLFLRQHVFOLPiWLFDVDFWXDOHV\HODxRSDUDODV
HVSHFLHVAbies albaD\EUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHFagus sylvaticaF\GUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH\Quercus roburH\IUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
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RGHVFHQVRGHOFUHFLPLHQWR\ODPRUWDOLGDGSDUDHODxR
Especies
Actuales media
[min – max]
Crecimiento
Mortalidad
2100 media
[min – max]
Crecimiento
Mortalidad
Abies alba
1.91
[0.00 - 9.48]
0.50
[0.00 - 0.99]
1.98
[0.00 - 7.23]
0.55
[0.13 - 0.72]
Castanea sativa
0.96
[0.00 - 6.21]
0.28
[0.00 -1.00]
1.18
[0.00 - 5.09]
0.33
[0.05 - 0.72]
Fagus sylvatica
1.25
[0.00 - 10.59]
0.16
[0.00 - 0.99]
1.33
[0.00 - 8.24]
0.26
[0.01 - 0.60]
Pinus halepensis
1.26
[0.00 - 38.22]
0.16
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.61
[0.00 - 29.89]
0.28
[0.04 - 0.74]
Pinus nigra
1.38
[0.00 - 15.26]
0.15
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.56
[0.00 - 9.20]
0.24
[0.01 - 0.58]
Pinus pinaster
1.60
[0.00 - 37.94]
0.43
[0.00 -1.00]
1.83
[0.00 - 18.73]
0.54
[0.12 - 0.86]
Pinus pinea
1.65
[0.00 - 21.82]
0.38
[0.00 – 1.00]
2.84
[0.00 -14.55]
0.44
[0.15 - 0.84]
Pinus sylvestris
1.36
[0.00 - 23.71]
0.16
[0.00 - 1.00]
2.21
[0.00-12.45]
0.28
[0.013 - 0.58]
Quercus petraea
2.80
[0.41 - 8.76]
0.25
[0.00 - 0.99]
2.70
[1.00 - 4.75]
0.34
[0.01 - 0.71]
Quercus robur
1.08
[0.00 - 11.59]
0.30
[0.00 - 1.00]
1.15
[0.00 - 8.17]
0.33
[0.04 - 0.66]
Quercus suber
1.60
[0.00 - 30.44]
0.55
[0.00 – 1.00]
2.09
[1.00 - 13.65]
0.44
[0.15 - 0.87]
Presente
– 2100
Crecimiento
Presente
– 2100
Mortalidad
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Figura 7
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426
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Recomendaciones para la adaptación
/DV HVSHFLHV DUEyUHDV TXH SUHVHQWDQ HO OtPLWH
VXUGHVXGLVWULEXFLyQHQODSHQtQVXODLEpULFDSHMPinus
sylvestrisSRGUtDQYHUIXHUWHPHQWHDOWHUDGDVXGHPRJUDItD
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Figura 8A
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