+2-$1'(21'$6 'RVHPLVRUDVGHUDGLR$\%HPLWHQUHVSHFWLYDPHQWHFRQIUHFXHQFLDVGH0+]\ 0+] &DOFXOH VXV ORQJLWXGHV GH RQGD UHVSHFWLYDV VDELHQGR TXH OD YHORFLGDG GH SURSDJDFLyQGHODVRQGDVHVF ± PV 6ROO P O P /DIUHFXHQFLDGHOVRQLGRTXHVHREWLHQHFRQXQGLDSDVyQHV+]6LODYHORFLGDG GHO VRQLGR HQ HO DLUH HV PV FDOFXOH OD ORQJLWXG GH RQGD FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH D GLFKD IUHFXHQFLD 6ROP 'DGDODIXQFLyQGHRQGD \ [ W VHQ >S W [ @ GRQGH[\WVHH[SUHVDQHQHO 6,'HWHUPLQH D ODIUHFXHQFLD\ODORQJLWXGGHRQGD E ODIXQFLyQGHRQGDGHRWUDRQGDLJXDODODGDGDSHURTXHVHSURSDJDHQVHQWLGR FRQWUDULR 6ROD+]P (OH[WUHPROLEUHGHXQWXERGHJRPDHOiVWLFDVHGHVSOD]DDUPyQLFDPHQWHDXQODGR\ DRWURGHVXSRVLFLyQGHHTXLOLEULR/DGLVWDQFLDHQWUHODVSRVLFLRQHVH[WUHPDVHVGHFP \ OD GXUDFLyQ GH XQD RVFLODFLyQ HV GH V $O FDER GH V OD SHUWXUEDFLyQ KD DYDQ]DGRHQHOWXERFP+DOOH D ODDPSOLWXGGHOPRYLPLHQWR E VXIUHFXHQFLD F ODYHORFLGDGGHSURSDJDFLyQ G ODORQJLWXGGHRQGD 6RODFP E+] FFPV GFP 8QDRQGDGHFPGHDPSOLWXGVHSURSDJDGHL]TXLHUGDDGHUHFKD\VXSHULRGRHVGH V6XSXHVWDDUPyQLFDKDOOHODHORQJDFLyQHQHORULJHQDOFDERGHVGHLQLFLDUVHHO PRYLPLHQWRGHVGHODSRVLFLyQGHHTXLOLEULR6DELHQGRTXHHQHVHLQVWDQWHW VOD HORQJDFLyQ GHO SULPHU SXQWR D OD GHUHFKD FRQ DPSOLWXG QXOD GLVWD FP GHO RULJHQ FDOFXOHODORQJLWXGGHRQGD 6RO\ FPO P 8QDRQGDWUDQVYHUVDOGDGDSRUODIXQFLyQ \ [ W $ VHQ Z W N [ VHSURSDJDHQXQD FXHUGDWHQVD(QHOLQVWDQWHLQLFLDOHQ[ \ D 'HWHUPLQH ORV YDORUHV GH $ Z \ N D SDUWLU GH ODV ILJXUDV TXH UHSUHVHQWDQ OD YDULDFLyQ GH OD GHIRUPDFLyQ FRQ UHODFLyQ D OD GLVWDQFLD DO RULJHQ \ DO WLHPSR UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH E +DOOH ORV SRVLEOHV YDORUHV GH ORV LQVWDQWHV GH WLHPSR D ORV TXH FRUUHVSRQGH OD VLWXDFLyQPRVWUDGDHQHOJUiILFRGHODILJXUDD F +DOOH ORV SRVLEOHV YDORUHV GH ORV SXQWRV GHO PHGLR D ORV TXH FRUUHVSRQGH OD VLWXDFLyQPRVWUDGDHQHOJUiILFRGHODILJXUDE D E 6RO$ FPZ S UDGVN S UDGP 8QDRQGDVHSURSDJDSRUXQDFXHUGDFRQXQDYHORFLGDGGHPVXQDDPSOLWXGGH FP\XQDIUHFXHQFLDGH+]&DOFXOH D HOSHULRGR\ODORQJLWXGGHRQGD E ODIXQFLyQGHRQGD F ODIXQFLyQGHODYHORFLGDGGHXQSXQWRGHODFXHUGDHQIXQFLyQGHOWLHPSR&XiO HVVXYHORFLGDGPi[LPD" 6ROD7 PVO PE \ [ W FRV S W r S [ F Y [ W S VHQ S W r S [ YPD[ S FPV (VFULEDODIXQFLyQGHRQGDTXHUHSUHVHQWDXQDRQGDDUPyQLFDTXHDYDQ]DHQVHQWLGR QHJDWLYRGHOHMH2;\TXHSRVHHXQDDPSOLWXGGHPXQDIUHFXHQFLDGH+]\XQD YHORFLGDG GH PV 'HWHUPLQH DVLPLVPR OD YHORFLGDG Pi[LPD GH RVFLODFLyQ GH ODV SDUWtFXODVGHOPHGLR 6ROS PV 8QD RQGD VRQRUD VH SURSDJD VLQ DPRUWLJXDPLHQWR HQ HO VHQWLGR QHJDWLYR GHO HMH ; FRQXQDYHORFLGDGGHPV6LODDPSOLWXGGHSUHVLyQDF~VWLFDHVGH3D3DVFDO\ VXIUHFXHQFLDHVGH+]FDOFXOH D ODIXQFLyQGHRQGD E OD SUHVLyQ DF~VWLFD HQ XQ SXQWR GHO PHGLR VLWXDGR D FP GHO IRFR HPLVRU DO FDERGHV 6ROE 3D (OSHULRGRGHXQDRQGDTXHVHSURSDJDHQXQPHGLRQRGLVSHUVLYRODYHORFLGDGGH SURSDJDFLyQGHODVRQGDVHVLQGHSHQGLHQWHGHVXIUHFXHQFLDDORODUJRGHOHMH;HVGH ± V\ODGLVWDQFLDHQWUHORVGRVSXQWRVPiVSUy[LPRVFX\DGLIHUHQFLDGHIDVHHVS UDGLDQHVHVFP D &DOFXOHODORQJLWXGGHRQGD\ODYHORFLGDGGHSURSDJDFLyQ E 6L HO SHULRGR VH GXSOLFDVH TXp OH RFXUULUtD D ODV PDJQLWXGHV GHO DSDUWDGR DQWHULRU" 6RODO FPF PV