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Banco Central de Chile
Documentos de Trabajo
Central Bank of Chile
Working Papers
N° 99
Junio 2001
UN INDICADOR LÍDER DEL IMACEC
Felipe Bravo
Helmut Franken
La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia
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pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: bcch@condor.bcentral.cl
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BANCO CENTRAL DE CHILE
CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
La serie Documentos de Trabajo es una publicación del Banco Central de Chile que divulga
los trabajos de investigación económica realizados por profesionales de esta institución o
encargados por ella a terceros. El objetivo de la serie es aportar al debate de tópicos
relevantes y presentar nuevos enfoques en el análisis de los mismos. La difusión de los
Documentos de Trabajo sólo intenta facilitar el intercambio de ideas y dar a conocer
investigaciones, con carácter preliminar, para su discusión y comentarios.
La publicación de los Documentos de Trabajo no está sujeta a la aprobación previa de los
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exclusiva responsabilidad de su(s) autor(es) y no reflejan necesariamente la opinión del
Banco Central de Chile o de sus Consejeros.
The Working Papers series of the Central Bank of Chile disseminates economic research
conducted by Central Bank staff or third parties under the sponsorship of the Bank. The
purpose of the series is to contribute to the discussion of relevant issues and develop new
analytical or empirical approaches in their analysis. The only aim of the Working Papers is
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Publication of Working Papers is not subject to previous approval by the members of the
Board of the Central Bank. The views and conclusions presented in the papers are
exclusively those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Central
Bank of Chile or of the Board members.
Documentos de Trabajo del Banco Central de Chile
Working Papers of the Central Bank of Chile
Huérfanos 1175, primer piso.
Teléfono: (56-2) 6702475 Fax: (56-2) 6702231
Documento de Trabajo
N° 99
Working Paper
N° 99
UN INDICADOR LÍDER DEL IMACEC
Felipe Bravo
Helmut Franken
Analista Económico
Gerencia de Análisis Macroeconómico
Banco Central de Chile
Economista Senior
Gerencia de Análisis Macroeconómico
Banco Central de Chile
Resumen
En este trabajo se propone un indicador líder de la actividad económica en Chile con el objeto de
servir como modelo satélite para proyecciones de corto plazo. Para ello se presenta una metodología
de identificación de series líderes para luego construir algunos indicadores alternativos,
seleccionando aquél que entrega las mejores señales con respecto de cambios de fase en el ciclo de
la actividad económica medida por el IMACEC.
Abstract
This paper proposes a leading indicator for economic activity in Chile as a satellite model for short
run forecasting purposes. A methodology to identify series that anticipate economic activity is
presented in the first place. Then, some alternative leading indicators are constructed and evaluated.
Among these indicators, we select the one that is most successful in terms of signaling business
cycles turnovers.
_____________________
Este trabajo se realizó en el marco del área de investigación y desarrollo de modelos de la Gerencia
de Análisis Macroeconómico del Banco Central de Chile. Se agradecen los comentarios recibidos
por parte de los participantes en un seminario interno de investigación y políticas junto con los
aportes de Christian Johnson. Las opiniones presentadas en el artículo no representan
necesariamente la visión del Banco Central de Chile. Emails: hbravo@bcentral.cl;
hfranken@bcentral.cl.
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Fdsxwr/ Urguljr | Khuuhud/ Oxlv Rvfdu1 Lqglfhv gh Frqglflrqhv H{whuqdv sdud
ho Surgxfwr1 Qrwdv gh Lqyhvwljdflöq | Hvwxglrv1 Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh1 Qrwd Q
:2<<1 Djrvwr/ 4<<<1
Fkdqj0Mlq Nlp | Fkduohv Qhovrq/ Vwdwh Vsdfh Prghov zlwk Uhjlph Vzlwfklqj1
4<<<1
Frzdq/ Nhylq1 Lqglfdgruhv Oðghuhv gho Surgxfwr hq Fkloh1 Vhplqdulr gh Wðwxor
S1X1F1 Mxolr/4<<81
Fulvsl/ Mdlph1 Lqglfdgruhv Oðghuhv hq Fkloh= Glvhôr | H{wudfflöq gh vhôdohv1
Uhylvwd Hvwdgðvwlfd | Hfrqrpðd Qr ; LQH1
Glherog | Nloldq/ Phdvxulqj Suhglfwdelolw|= Wkhru| dqg Pdfurhfrqrplf Dssol0
fdwlrqv1 Djrvwr 4<<91
Glrq/ Ulfkdug1 Lqglfdwru Prghov ri Fruh Lq dwlrq iru Fdqdgd1 Edqn ri Fdqdgd1
Mxolr 4<<<1
Kdplowrq/ Mdphv1 D Qhz Dssurdfk wr wkh Hfrqrplf Dqdo|vlv ri Qrqvwdwlrqdu|
Wlph Vhulhv dqg wkh Exvlqhvv F|foh1 Hfrqrpìwulfd/ 8:1 4<;<1
Khuuhud/ O1R1 | Pdjhqg}r L11H{shfwdwlydv Ilqdqflhudv | od Fxuyd gh Wdvdv
Iruzdug gh Fkloh1 Grfxphqwr gh wudedmr Q 56= Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh1 Rfwxeuh
gh 4<<:1
K|pdqv/ Vdxo1 Rq Wkh Xvh ri Ohdglqj Lqglfdwruv wr Suhglfw F|folfdo Grzqwxquv
+4<:6, Eurrnlqjv Sdshu rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|1 Sdj1= 66<0;7
Lqiruph gh Sroðwlfd Prqhwduld gho Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh= Remhwlyrv | Wudqv0
plvlöq1 Pdu}r/ 53331
Mrkqvrq/ Fkulvwldq1 Xq prghor gh vzlwfklqj sdud ho fuhflplhqwr hq Fkloh1
Grfxphqwr gh wudedmr Q ;7= Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh1 Rfwxeuh gh 53331
Odklul | Prruh1 Ohdglqj hfrqrplf Lqglfdwruv/ Qhz dssurdfkhv dqg iruhfdvwlqj
uhfrugv1 4<<41
Pdufho/ Pdulr | Phoohu/ Sdwulflr1 Lqglfdgruhv Oðghuhv gh Uhfhvlöq | H{sdqvlöq
Hfrqöplfd1 Flhsodq Qr 441 4<;6
Pxudvdzd/ \dvxprwr1 Idfwru Dqdo|vlv ri Vwdwlrqdu| dqg Hujrglf Wlph Vhulhv
zlwk dq Dssolfdwlrq wr wkh X1V1 Frlqflghqw Exvlqhvv F|foh Lqglfdwruv1 Xqlyhuvlw| ri
Shqqv|oydqld/ pdqxvfulsw1 Mxolr/ 4<<;1
Vloyhu/ V1 Iruhfdvwlqj Shdnv dqg Wkurxjkv lq wkh Exvlqhvv F|foh= Rq wkh Fkrlfh
dqg Xvh ri Dssursldwh Ohdglqj Lqglfdwruv1hq Odklul | Prruh/ rs1 flw1/ ss 4;60<71
Vxäuh}/ Ohrqdugr1 LODY Lqglfdgru Oðghu gh Dfwlylgdg Oduudðq Yldo1 Sxeolfdflöq
ruljlqdo1 Deulo 4<<;1
Vwrfn | Zdwvrq1 Qhz Lqgh{hv ri Frlqflghqw dqg ohdglqj Hfrqrplf Lqglfdwruv1
Deulo 4<<51
Vwrfn | Zdwvrq1 D surfhgxuh iru suhglfwlqj uhfhvvlrqv zlwk ohdglqj lqglfdwruv=
Hfrqrphwulf lvvxhv dqg uhfhqw h{shulhqfh1 QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshuv Vhulhv1 Pdu}r
4<<51
56
Yhqhjdv/ Mrvì | ]dpeudqr/ Fduorv1 Lqglfdgru Phqvxdo gh Dfwlylgdg Hfrqöplfd
+LPDFHF,1 Vhulh gh Hvwxglrv Hfrqöplfrv Q 751 Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh1 Mxqlr 53331
:
Dsìqglfh
:14
Vhohfflöq gh odv vhulhv oðghuhv1
Hq hvwh hvwxglr vh xwlol}durq päv gh flhq vhulhv txh surylhqhq gh orv glyhuvrv
vhfwruhv gh od hfrqrpðd/ vh lqfox|hq djuhjdgrv prqhwdulrv/ wdvdv gh lqwhuìv/
erqrv h{whuqrv/ xmrv gh lqyhuvlöq/ surwhvwrv gh grfxphqwrv/ txlheudv/ ðqglfhv
exuväwlohv | rwudv yduldeohv gho vhfwru uhdo/ gh frphuflr h{whulru | hpsohr1 Odv
vhulhv xvdgdv hq hvwh hvwxglr ixhurq odv vljxlhqwhv=
4 LPDFHF hq Ploorqhv gh ' gh 4<;9
5 LPDFHF/ EFFk55
6 LSF/ LQH5 6
7 P4D uhdo/ EFFk
8 P5 D uhdo/ EFFk
9 P6 uhdo/ EFFk
: P7 uhdo/ EFFk
; P8 uhdo/ EFFk
< P9 uhdo/ EFFk
43 P: uhdo/ EFFk
44 SUEF0<3/ EFFk
45 SUF 43 dôrv/ EFFk
46 SUF 53 dôrv/ EFFk
47 SUF 47 dôrv/ EFFk
48 SUF ; dôrv/ EFFk
49 SUF 45 dôrv/ EFFk
4: Wdvd gh sroðwlfd prqhwduld/ EFFk
4; HPEL/ MS Prujdq
4< HPEL Odwlqrdphulfdqr/ MS Prujdq
53 HPEL Fkloh/ MS Prujdq
54 Lqyhuvlöq H{wudqmhud/ EFFk
55 Fkhtxhv Suhvhqwdgrv Q / VELI5 7
56 Fkhtxhv ( Surwhvwr/ VELI
57 Fkhtxhv Suhvhqwdgrv pp ' gh 4<;9/ VELI
58 Fkhtxhv ( Surwhvwr/ VELI
59 Ohwudv | Sdjduhv Suhvhqwdgrv Q / VELI
5: Srufhqwdmh gh Surwhvwr gho qýphur wrwdo gho Ohwudv | Sdjduhv/ VELI
5; Ohwudv | Sdjduhv Suhvhqwdgrv pp ' gh 4<;9/ VELI
5< Srufhqwdmh gh Surwhvwr gho ydoru wrwdo gh odv Ohwudv | Sdjduhv/ VELI
63 Fduwhud Yhqflgd/ VELI
55 Edqfr
Fhqwudo gh Fkloh1
Qdflrqdo gh Hvwdgðvwlfdv1
57 Vxshulqwhqghqfld gh Edqfrv h Lqvwlwxflrqhv Ilqdqflhudv1
56 Lqvwlwxwr
57
64
65
66
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69
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74
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76
77
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79
7:
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88
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94
95
96
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Txlheudv hpsuhvdv/ Ilvfdoðd Qdflrqdo gh Txlheudv
DGULDQ surphglr gho phv/ Erovd Hohfwuöqlfd
LSVD surphglr gho phv/ Erovd gh Frphuflr
LJSD surphglr gho phv/ Erovd gh Frphuflr
Wdvd gh Fdswdflöq <30698/ EFFk
Ohwudv Klsrwhfduldv WLU/ Erovd gh Frphuflr
Yhqwdv gh dxwrpöylohv +DQDF,
Frqvxpr hoìfwulfr lqgxvwuldo/ VII5 8
Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Kdelwxdo/ LQH
Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Kdelwxdo/ VII
Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Gxudeoh/ LQH
Yhqwdv Elhqhv gh Frqvxpr Gxudeoh/ VII
Yhqwdv Vxshuphufdgrv/ LQH
Yhqwdv Vxshuphufdgrv/ FQF5 9
Yhqwdv Frphuflr Plqrulvwd/ FQF
Fuìglwrv gh Frqvxpr uhdohv/ VELI
Yhqwdv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Elhqhv gh Fdslwdo/ LQH
Yhqwdv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Elhqhv gh Fdslwdo/ VII
Ghvsdfkr gh Pdwhuldohv Lqgxvwuldohv gh Frqvwuxfflöq/ FFkF5 :
Ghvsdfkr gh Fhphqwr/ FFkF
Ghvsdfkr gh Ilhuur/ FFkF
Ghvsdfkr gh Krupljöq/ FFkF
Surgxfflöq Iðvlfd/ VII
Yhqwdv Iðvlfdv/ VII
Surgxfflöq vlq Freuh/ LQH
Yhqwdv vlq Freuh/ LQH
Surgxfflöq Plqhud/ LQH
Jhqhudflöq Hoìfwulfd/ LQH
Jhqhudflöq Klgurhoìfwulfd/ LQH
Sduwlflsdflöq gh od jhqhudflöq klgurhoìfwulfd ghqwur gho wrwdo/ LQH
Glvwulexflöq Hoìfwulfd/ LQH
Yhqwdv gh Hqhujðd Vlvwhpd Lqwhufrqhfwdgr Fhqwudo hq Jz2k/ FGHF0VLF
Hglfdflöq Wrwdo Reudv Qxhydv +4333p5,/ LQH
Hglfdflöq Wrwdo Reudv Qxhydv +4333p5,/ LQH
Hglfdflöq Reudv Qxhydv ylylhqgd/ LQH
Hglfdflöq Reudv Qxhydv lqgxvwuldv | vhuylflrv/ LQH
Rihuwd gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF
Yhqwdv gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF
Phvhv Vwrfn gho Phufdgr Lqpreloldulr/ FFkF
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58 Vrflhgdg
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59 Fäpdud
58
:6 Lpsruwdflrqhv Frqvxpr/ Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh/ EFFk
:7 Lpsruwdflrqhv Frqvxpr/ Edqfr Fhqwudo gh Fkloh/ EFFk
:8 Lpsruwdflrqhv Fdslwdo/ EFFk
:9 Lpsruwdflrqhv Lqwhuphglrv/ EFFk
:: Lpsruwdflrqhv Frpexvwleohv | Oxeulfdqwhv/ EFFk
:; Lpsruwdflrqhv Qr Frpexvwleohv | Oxeulfdqwhv/ EFFk
:< Lpsruwdflrqhv Wrwdohv IRE/ EFFk
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;4 H{sruwdflrqhv lqgxvwuldohv/ EFFk
;5 H{sruwdflrqhv plqhudv/ EFFk
;6 H{sruwdflrqhv gh djulfxowxud/ vloylfxowxud | shvfd/ EFFk
;7 H{sruwdflrqhv wrwdohv IRE/ EFFk
;8 H{sruwdflrqhv wrwdohv yduldflöq hq 45 phvhv
;9 H{sruwdflrqhv freuh/ EFFk
;: H{sruwdflrqhv qr freuh/ EFFk
;; H{sruwdflrqhv sulqflsdohv qr freuh/ EFFk
;< H{sruwdflrqhv uhvwr/ EFFk
<3 Edodq}d Frphufldo/ EFFk
<4 Edodq}d Frphufldo yduldflöq dfxpxodgd/ EFFk
<5 Suhflr qrplqdo freuh/ Eorrpehuj
<6 Suhflr uhdo freuh
<7 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr qdflrqdo/ LQH
<8 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr Ghvhvwdflrqdol}dgr
<9 Wdvd Ghvhpsohr Uhjlöq Phwursrolwdqd/ LQH
<: Wlsr gh Fdpelr Uhdo/ EFFk
<; Ud}öq Sdvdmhurv Nloöphwurv/ Gluhfflöq gh Dhurqäxwlfd Flylo
<< Lqglfh gh frqglflrqhv h{whuqdv 4/ EFFk
433 Lqglfh gh frqglflrqhv h{whuqdv 5/ EFFk
434 Lqglfh gh Frqglflrqhv Prqhwduldv/ EFFk
435 Wìuplqrv gh Lqwhufdpelr/ EFFk
436 Vsuhdg +suf;0suef<3,1
59
Documentos de Trabajo
Banco Central de Chile
Working Papers
Central Bank of Chile
NÚMEROS ANTERIORES
PAST ISSUES
La serie de Documentos de Trabajo en versión PDF puede obtenerse gratis en la dirección electrónica:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Existe la posibilidad de solicitar una copia
impresa con un costo de $500 si es dentro de Chile y US$12 si es para fuera de Chile. Las solicitudes se
pueden hacer por fax: (56-2) 6702231 o a través de correo electrónico: bcch@condor.bcentral.cl
Working
Papers
in
PDF
format
can
be
downloaded
free
of
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from:
http://www.bcentral.cl/Estudios/DTBC/doctrab.htm. Printed versions can be ordered individually for
US$12 per copy (for orders inside Chile the charge is Ch$500.) Orders can be placed by fax: (56-2) 6702231
or email: bcch@condor.bcentral.cl
DTBC-98
Series de Términos de Intercambio de Frecuencia Mensual para la
Economía Chilena: 1965-1999
Herman Bennett y Rodrigo Valdés
Mayo 2001
DTBC-97
Estimaciones de los Determinantes del Ahorro Voluntario de los
Hogares en Chile (1988 y 1997)
Andrea Butelmann y Francisco Gallego
Mayo 2001
DTBC-96
El Ahorro y el Consumo de Durables Frente al Ciclo Económico en
Chile: ¿Consumismo, Frugalidad, Racionalidad?
Francisco Gallego, Felipe Morandé y Raimundo Soto
Mayo 2001
DTBC-95
Una Revisión del Comportamiento y de los Determinantes del
Ahorro en el Mundo
Norman Loayza, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel y Luis Servén
Mayo 2001
DTBC-94
International Portfolio Diversification: The Role of Risk and Return
César Calderón, Norman Loayza y Luis Servén
Abril 2001
DTBC-93
Economías de Escala y Economías de Ámbito
en el Sistema Bancario Chileno
Carlos Budnevich, Helmut Franken y Ricardo Paredes
Abril 2001
DTBC-92
Estimating ARMA Models Efficiently
Rómulo Chumacero
Abril 2001
DTBC-91
Country Portfolios
Aart Kraay, Norman Loayza, Luis Servén y Jaime Ventura
Abril 2001
DTBC-90
Un Modelo de Intervención Cambiaria
Christian A. Johnson
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-89
Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa
Janine Aron y John Muellbauer
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-88
Monetary Policy in Chile: A Black Box?
Angel Cabrera y Luis Felipe Lagos
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-87
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation
of Monetary Policy Rules
John B. Taylor
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-86
Se Busca una Raíz Unitaria: Evidencia para Chile
Rómulo Chumacero
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-85
Un Estudio del Ahorro Agregado por Agentes Económicos en Chile
Herman Bennett, Norman Loayza y Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Diciembre 2000
DTBC-84
Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile
Christian A. Johnson
Noviembre 2000
DTBC-83
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the United Kingdom:
Pass-Through & Policy Rules
Alastair Cunningham y Andrew G. Haldane
Octubre 2000
